Land Bubble? How About a Farm Bubble!

[MoBuckChaser]

Y

Corn is way behind this year??????????

Not to jump on the bashing but Where the heck did he did get that from?

My corn is 7 foot tall, tasseled out and shooting silk. Not to mention its making one heck of a road screen.

Your corn looks great Bill! As does most all of it in the main corn belt! Our corn in MN is 2 weeks behind as of right now. Just need a couple extra weeks in the fall and we will be fine!

 

[MoBuckChaser]

I don't understand how wet corn can affect the price. Farmers got to dry it if it's wet, period. Is he expecting farmers to abandon their crop if they can't get it dry enough? What could make the problem even worse is if there is an early freeze and the test weights come down. Not sure how that affects price, but i know it isn't good at the elevator.

If the test weight gets too low the elevator may reject it. For every pound of test weight under 56lbs you lose 2% of your yield. And anything under 52lb test weight is subject to huge dockage. Under 48lb test weight and it can be rejected at the elevator. That is when you are at the cattle feeders mercy! Not Good!

 

[West Branch]

Y


Your corn looks great Bill! As does most all of it in the main corn belt! Our corn in MN is 2 weeks behind as of right now. Just need a couple extra weeks in the fall and we will be fine!

That is good you are only two weeks behind! It looks like the areas not planted are pretty small overall but I live and work west of the cities where there was huge wet areas. The fields I drive buy have the cover crops sprouting these days.

We were down in NW Iowa on July 11-13 and tassels were starting to show at that time down there. I would be very surprised if there wasn't a few guys with 200+ bushel corn down there this year.

 

[wildfire]

Corn went up today $.20 to $3.20, Beans are just over $10.00. 250 bushel corn on rented land for $300/acre should show a large profit?

 

[MoBuckChaser]

Corn went up today $.20 to $3.20, Beans are just over $10.00. 250 bushel corn on rented land for $300/acre should show a large profit?

National average will be around 170 bushel, not on my farm!. And that average is not made yet. But the fall price could be a lot lower than what it is now by the time the corn is made. Hope those guys have there price locked in, and locked in a year ago!

 

[SD51555]

It's no Iowa land war, but apparently still a high price for this part of Illinois:

http://www.agweb.com/article/land_s...in_christian_county_ill_aug_NAA_Mike_Walsten/

$15,900/ac for 188bu/ac average. Purchase price divided by the average one year yield on corn is $85/bu. Assuming a $2 profit/bu, break even would take 42 years. Can you really count on 2% appreciation from this purchase price? I'll never understand the CAPEX on this.

$15,900 invested in Safety Insurance Co (Ticker: SAFT) would earn $875 a year with an average forward income growth rate of 8%/yr. $875/188 bushels would equal a profit margin of $4.65/bu + $2-$3 cost of production. You get my point.

Dividends 2014: $875
Dividends 2015: $945
Dividends 2016: $1,020

Farm or go fishing?

 

[bwoods11]

It's not rationale right now.

Appears to be leftover cash/speculation that prices and future yields will rise. It all sounds bad

 

[MoBuckChaser]

It's not rationale right now.

Appears to be leftover cash/speculation that prices and future yields will rise. It all sounds bad

It is bad, the idiots on the Dark Side don't or won't want to believe it! But it is the same type of guys that hopped on the bus just as it was going over the cliff in the early 80's!

 

[Bill]

last week I made a $1500/acre cash & close in 10 days offer on a piece of ground that has been on the market for over a year. The realtor won't even contact me back this week :)

Sure it's below asking price but just a few years ago it would have been accepted. I guess the realtor and seller are holding out for an idiot.

 

[MoBuckChaser]

last week I made a $1500/acre cash & close in 10 days offer on a piece of ground that has been on the market for over a year. The realtor won't even contact me back this week :)

Sure it's below asking price but just a few years ago it would have been accepted. I guess the realtor and seller are holding out for an idiot.

What may happen and it happened to me once is, if they sell it too cheap the scum bag real estate prick will buy it out ahead of you. And you may see it on the market at a later date. Hope they call you back!

 

[Bill]

What may happen and it happened to me once is, if they sell it too cheap the scum bag real estate prick will buy it out ahead of you. And you may see it on the market at a later date. Hope they call you back!

You know I never thought of that. Hmm maybe that's why their ignoring me.

 

[MoBuckChaser]

You know I never thought of that. Hmm maybe that's why their ignoring me.

I thought I had a nice 160 acres bought one time about 4 years ago in southern Mercer county. I met the real estate jerk at the place, plus the daughter of the elderly lady that owned the place. We all agreed on a lower cash price with the elderly lady to have a year to stay in the house until a spot at the assisted living opened up. I told the jerk to right up a purchase agreement and left him a $1,000 earnest money check after I signed the PA. The owners daughter wanted a attorney to look at the PA before signing, I thought no problem. Week went by, then 2 weeks and I had not gotten the PA back with the owners signature. A month, and I finally went to the guys office. He said they backed out and handed me my check back. 4 months later it was back on the market.....by the Broker/Owner that bought it out from under me. The very guy that showed it too me! Just another Missouri education! Now I don't walk away without all signatures!

 

[SD51555]

A lesson I learned is to get the seller to sign the PA first. I don't know if that's possible, but I'd sure as hell ask for it. I had a deal agreed to over the phone, received the PA, signed and overnighted right back with a check. Four days went by and I hadn't heard a thing. They sat on it until they got another offer. Then a bidding war ensued and I told them to pound sand out of principle. I'll never deal with that dirt bag realtor ever again. From here on out, I'm going to go speak directly to the owners.

 

[Jameson]

Russia ain't buying our food now. Will this make corn even cheaper and land to fallow?

 

[MoBuckChaser]

Russia ain't buying our food now. Will this make corn even cheaper and land to fallow?

The land will follow and may go Fallow as well!

 

[MoBuckChaser]

Current Prices at the local elevators! Post harvest prices could have Corn at or under $2 if it keeps going the trend it is on now!

 

[SD51555]

http://www.agweb.com/article/land_sale_of_the_week_9633acre_in_boone_co._indiana_NAA_Mike_Walsten/

This land sale was far lower than the land that sold in Iowa in July with a corn PI in the 140's.

 

[bwoods11]

I'm seeing less demand for farm land here. Stuff that would have easily sold for $6000, now finding it hard to get bids above 5k

 

[SD51555]

This is another interesting one. They don't dive too deep into the details, but it's worth a read:

http://www.agweb.com/article/farm_debt_at_banks_might_reach_new_record_NAA_Ed_Clark/

 

[MoBuckChaser]

I'm seeing less demand for farm land here. Stuff that would have easily sold for $6000, now finding it hard to get bids above 5k

Yep!

I do know of a few parcels in Iowa just south of the MN border that brought $10K-11K per acre a month ago on auction. But it is slow for land sales right now.