Land Bubble? How About a Farm Bubble!


Yep, Farmers historically will keep there land values over inflated on there financial statements they turn into there banker every winter. Makes it look good, but gets a lot of guys in trouble when it comes time to sell and there ain't enough penny's to put back in the bank! They just have no clue land prices are already down. Big time crash is coming, unless prices get a large boost for some guys!
 
Yep, Farmers historically will keep there land values over inflated on there financial statements they turn into there banker every winter. Makes it look good, but gets a lot of guys in trouble when it comes time to sell and there ain't enough penny's to put back in the bank! They just have no clue land prices are already down. Big time crash is coming, unless prices get a large boost for some guys!

If farmers included the capital gain tax liability of their assets on their financial statements many positive net worths would become negative. Most are still land and equipment rich and cash poor.
 
Down Down Down the prices continue to go!

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^ Wow. Another bubble has popped. Still the ag-economy was the most resilient of them all....and for a longer time. Was reading stock market comments today....makes me nervous. o_O Doesn't sound this this can end well for anyone.
 
Don't worry Johnny q tax payer will save them
 
Don't worry Johnny q tax payer will save them

^^I really wish this was possible. At this point in time, I don't see very many ways this can end well. Perhaps slapping a big tariff on all imports and getting folks off the dole and back to work would be a start.....but, sadly, the whole game seems screwed to me. Doing so would probably invoke a war with the Asian countries. I'm not one to throw in the towel....but it appears to me that this economy is beyond repair. One cannot even fathom a repair to what we have done. Chute.....we had a great nation.
 
^^I really wish this was possible. At this point in time, I don't see very many ways this can end well. Perhaps slapping a big tariff on all imports and getting folks off the dole and back to work would be a start.....but, sadly, the whole game seems screwed to me. Doing so would probably invoke a war with the Asian countries. I'm not one to throw in the towel....but it appears to me that this economy is beyond repair. One cannot even fathom a repair to what we have done. Chute.....we had a great nation.

Just wait until the worlds currency switches from our dollar to the Euro! :eek:

Everything you own will be worth 30% less overnight!
 
Just wait until the worlds currency switches from our dollar to the Euro! :eek:

Everything you own will be worth 30% less overnight!
Yeah maybe that is a possibility. But the Euro is not in the best of shape either. It's a world-wide house of cards. It's gonna take better leaders than we have mustered in the past several years to make things right. Hope and change.....yeah...riiiight. (I hope I am wrong - but the string has just about run out IMO.)
 
Prices are similar down by me as well. Funny thing is, I don't think the yields are gonna be too great in the Dakotas and Western Iowa. That frost we had about a week or so ago nipped a lot of acres of beans and corn. Not sure how it's gonna impact exactly, but I saw a lot of green wilting beans last week driving after that frost. Corn was the same way.

I've thought a lot about it. One bad year probably won't burst the bubble. It may shift around land a little where the over-leveraged under-insured guy goes belly up. I think it may require years of poor prices to affect land prices in total.

For now, I'm going to keep chasing precious metals into the abyss. It could be a repeat of my mistake of shorting bonds when things went south in 2009. Boy was I wrong and took it in the pants on that one. Don't bet against the Fed. Ever. So says the guy buying gold and silver.

Ha! Who knows???
 
Just wait until the worlds currency switches from our dollar to the Euro! :eek:

Everything you own will be worth 30% less overnight!

I would not bet against the Fed or any other world banks. Many of the worlds governments have enormous national debts and cannot afford rates anywhere near historic averages. Rates will remain low compared to historic levels for a long time. The fed will also not unwind their balance sheet in my lifetime it’s cheaper for them to pay interest on that debt.

Agree with Foggy that the dollar will remain the world currency for a long time as the rest of the world’s currencies are awful. Just look at the U.S. bond sales and note all the foreign investors purchasing our bonds at almost zero rates. There is strong demand for the US debt/dollar which tells us the world has allot of confidence in our currency.

My opinion is the Fed has done a good job on Monetary policy but unfortunately Obama has done a horrible job on fiscal, regulatory, environmental, tax, foreign or any other policy. What has he accomplished, he has made 8 million people dependents of the state and he will pardon all foreign aliens in a blatant grab for democratic votes. Obama hates wealth generating and the free market enterprise, it’s very obvious.

Be patient, Obama’s power and rule will be ending soon, free market will return and the country will move towards the center. Hopefully the current market can hold until better GDP numbers and economic growth returns and supports current market levels.
 
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I hope you are right Freeborn! But We, as a country, can not continue to print $85 billion dollars per pay of paper money and think it can possibly continue to hold its worth. Just sayin!
 
Agree, but how else can they fund rampant deficit spending?

Believe it or not we are still operating under the continuing resolution put forth by Bush during the financial crises. Bottom line is the Democrats have rejected many house versions of the budget and Obama didn’t put forth a budget until his 5th year which was rejected by both parties. Obama wanted it rejected so he can continue to spend for many personal reasons.

Thankfully the Republican lead house forced budget sequestration on our government as it sent a message to all foreign investors we had not abandoned the dollar and had not completely forgotten about being fiscally responsible. The general public should understand what they did was a very good thing for people.

The coming election is critical for the Republicans to win. If they do you will see more deficit constraint and it makes Obama a lame duck that will have to cooperate with the other branches of government. The best thing about that is Harry Reed will be gone and he can no longer block all of the bills that come from the house from being voted on in the senate. Most people don’t realize that Reed is Obamas hatchet man and protects Obama and the democrats from actually having to publically vote or veto bills from the house. Ones Reed is gone the Republicans will pass good legislation and then Obama and the democrats will have to publically do their job and be on the record doing it. Right now Reed blocks everything from even going to committee let alone making to the floor of the senate for vote.

With some common sense changes to our tax code, entitlements etc. the US can get back onto a sustainable track but we need to get past the next couple years. Hopefully the country moves towards the center and we can make progress towards a better future.
 
Well Freeborn I will tell you this. Not a Republican, nor a democrat is going to fix what is wrong. Unless we END ALL of the entitlement's across the board (and that will not happen) this economy is and will continue to run on life support! Its doomed!
 
I have zero faith in either party. Seems to me like all any of them care about is getting elected and re-elected...

Bingo!
 
Well Freeborn I will tell you this. Not a Republican, nor a democrat is going to fix what is wrong. Unless we END ALL of the entitlement's across the board (and that will not happen) this economy is and will continue to run on life support! Its doomed!

Agree, allot of change needs and will occur. The government will change entitlements by reducing them as the math does not work otherwise. For those who have thought you were going to get screwed on Social Security and Healthcare, you are. How the entitlements work out still needs to be determined but there will be a combination of things cut across entitlements and government spending that will occur. Everything from defense to welfare will get cut, government taxes will go up and indirect taxes in the form of inflation will go up. In the long run standards of living will go down, no doubt about it.

It’s a complex subject and difficult to cover on a forum like this but keep in mind the whole world including those in power don’t want a great depression or doomsday to arrive.

I truly believe the public and politicians will moderate as it is the only way we can afford to sustain a reasonable level of prosperity.

On farm land, most likely there will be winners and losers, I don’t know if there will be a land recession.
 
Agree, allot of change needs and will occur. The government will change entitlements by reducing them as the math does not work otherwise. For those who have thought you were going to get screwed on Social Security and Healthcare, you are. How the entitlements work out still needs to be determined but there will be a combination of things cut across entitlements and government spending that will occur. Everything from defense to welfare will get cut, government taxes will go up and indirect taxes in the form of inflation will go up. In the long run standards of living will go down, no doubt about it.

It’s a complex subject and difficult to cover on a forum like this but keep in mind the whole world including those in power don’t want a great depression or doomsday to arrive.

I truly believe the public and politicians will moderate as it is the only way we can afford to sustain a reasonable level of prosperity.

On farm land, most likely there will be winners and losers, I don’t know if there will be a land recession.

Hahahahahahahahahahahahahahaha! Sorry Jerry, struck a funny bone with me! Plus...... that will never happen.
 
Glad I could make you laugh!

I’m an optimist and still believe we will recover and that we are not doomed, at least not yet.

The elections are in 6 weeks, look for the country to move to the center and with that the politicians will as well.

Give us a couple of years of US GDP of 4.5% and China GDP of 8+% like we had during the Clinton and Reagan years and we will get past this administration. Hopefully after the last two presidents the citizens will learn that the country does better when we work together near the middle of the political and social spectrum.

To change the subject, when is the land tour, pig roast and beer fest going to happen at you place?
 
Glad I could make you laugh!

I’m an optimist and still believe we will recover and that we are not doomed, at least not yet.

The elections are in 6 weeks, look for the country to move to the center and with that the politicians will as well.

Give us a couple of years of US GDP of 4.5% and China GDP of 8+% like we had during the Clinton and Reagan years and we will get past this administration. Hopefully after the last two presidents the citizens will learn that the country does better when we work together near the middle of the political and social spectrum.

To change the subject, when is the land tour, pig roast and beer fest going to happen at you place?

Beer Fest? Hell every day is a beer fest at BuckChasers! Fridge is in the shed, stop by and help yourself!

And I don't do land tours and the last pig roast I had, cost me $15,000. No more of them anymore either!
 
Prices are similar down by me as well. Funny thing is, I don't think the yields are gonna be too great in the Dakotas and Western Iowa. That frost we had about a week or so ago nipped a lot of acres of beans and corn. Not sure how it's gonna impact exactly, but I saw a lot of green wilting beans last week driving after that frost. Corn was the same way.

I've thought a lot about it. One bad year probably won't burst the bubble. It may shift around land a little where the over-leveraged under-insured guy goes belly up. I think it may require years of poor prices to affect land prices in total.

For now, I'm going to keep chasing precious metals into the abyss. It could be a repeat of my mistake of shorting bonds when things went south in 2009. Boy was I wrong and took it in the pants on that one. Don't bet against the Fed. Ever. So says the guy buying gold and silver.

Ha! Who knows???

Gold and silver are nice assets, but I wonder if things do get really bad what is going to be more valuable. Land which can produce food or shiny bars? Just my thoughts. I am pretty heavy on farm land and dividend stocks. Not saying that both of those assets will not be "choppy" in the future either!
 
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