I always like reading your perspective. Have you listened to these guys’ podcasts?
Yes - and as usually happens - a person applies their own local knowledge and experience. My local knowledge and experience comes from living in an area where likely 75% of the land type is commercial timberland - and in particular, loblolly pine. This land is owned in large part by companies like weyerhauser, potlach, deltic, IP, anthony timberlands - and smaller acreages of private ownership. This land was utilized as commercial timberlands in 1980 when I started hunting it and still is today. In addition, I spent a lot of time on national forest land - with most of it in large acreages of wilderness area - no silvicultural practices - mature mixed pine hardwood in 1980 and still is today.
The point being, the two areas are very different - but what they have in common is a precipitous decline in turkey numbers after having high turkey density for many years. I can not remember a single recent turkey study I have read that did not conclude that low nest success and poult survival is directly due to predation. Surely, indirect contributing causes run the gamut from habitat type to wet weather - but predation wins the direct cause award. Many of these studies attempt to separate nest survival by habitat type - but so far - i have not seen where any one single habitat type is far and away better at improving nest success.
Which brings me to my point. I own 400 acres. I dont manage for cattle, timber, or hay production like my neighbors. I have converted my fescue pasture to nwsg. I have 40 acres of food plots. I have maybe 40 acres of of largely mature cedar I would like to eradicate - but it is all kinds of expensive. I could possibly do a little additional timber work - but overall - I am satisfied with my habitat improvements.
Even at that, I had no turkeys - maybe a wandering stray a couple times a year. My 1200 acre neighbor on one side and 1400 acre neighbor on the other side do not have turkeys, either. It is much less expensive - and a lot more fun - for me to engage in trapping activities than timber practices. I have been trapping early to mid spring the last ten years. Five years ago, a turkey or two showed up in the spring. My spring turkey population has gradually increased - but they are absent from Aug through Feb. My two big landowner neighbors still have no turkeys. Coincidental or not - turkeys showed up on my place when I consistently employed spring trapping. I dont know if they come because of less pressure by predators, or if there is actually some nesting success on my place and the successful hens and their poults imprint on my place.
Most of us can not afford to create and maintain the PERFECT turkey habitat. My cattle ranching neighbors are not ever going to entertain the thought of converting fescue to nwsg. And incidentally, these neighbors dont have horrible land for turkeys - something like 60% of their acreage is forested. Turkeys, quail, rabbits, and cotton rats used to exist in mediocre habitat - but with few predators. Typically, these species now only exist in the SE on highly managed, excellent habitat.
I can not afford to make the perfect habitat. I can afford to trap. Unfortunately, I dont see there being large scale favorable turkey habitat improvement or large scale trapping effort or demand. I know there are still isolated areas in the SE, outside of intensively managed private lands, that maintain decent turkey numbers. I would love to see research done in those areas to determine how and why turkeys are successful there - instead of research in all these other areas tying to determine why there is a declining turkey population and coming up with the exact same answer - every time - predation.
i apologize for the long, rambling answer.