Kip: Top 5 Factors Causing Deer Population Declines

[SD51555]

This year's license sales will be the best indicator if the weekend warriors are getting driven from the sport. Like fishing, if you're not catching anything there, how many times are you going to go back? Maybe the hunter numbers will drop another 10% this year.

I can't help but feel the deer issue is the exact same problem as the walleye issue from a trigger control perspective. A hot spot is driven into the dirt from excess harvest, then the spot is abandoned because the bonanza is over. The few die hards keep going and checking and will be the first ones there when the rebound begins.

 

[biglakeba$$]

That would be a wonderful scenario in 2 ways.

The DNR will feel the pinch with lessened revenues and maybe have their hands forced a little more to do the right thing.
Less hunters in the woods is fine by me. Especially the ill-prepared weekend warriors.

 

[Bucks&Ducks]

9 day season + 16 day muzzleloader has had major impact in my area.

I can't emphasize (major) enough!!

Believe me I'm paying attention, data/trail cam pics/harvest numbers. I've got it all.

I am not sure what zone you are in but my point is the change to 9 day season coincided with the increase in doe permits. Plenty of central MN has always been 9 days and they could show you the same decline in numbers over the same years. You could hunt 5 days in the old zone 4 (if you bought for A and B) now you can hunt 9. I do not think 4 extra days mid week is making a significant dent on the population. I can't remember how long the muzzy season was back then. For the record I have no issue if they cut the season down I just don't think it is a huge deal.

 

[Bucks&Ducks]

From a purely selfish standpoint, I'd love it if deer hunter numbers dropped by another 25%+. Not a great standpoint for the long term survival of deer hunting though I suppose.

Similar thoughts have ran through my head for deer, duck, pheasant, etc. You hit the nail on the head though. Less hunters makes it a lot harder to get any changes accomplished.

 

[SD51555]

From a purely selfish standpoint, I'd love it if deer hunter numbers dropped by another 25%+. Not a great standpoint for the long term survival of deer hunting though I suppose.

How much downside can there be if that happens? Look at the battle for the audit. It was carried by Brooks and a dozen or two other relentless leaders, a few hundred supporters, but the other 98% didn't show up to the table. I'd say from a clout perspective we have none due to complacency.

 

[biglakeba$$]

You could hunt 5 days in the old zone 4 (if you bought for A and B) now you can hunt 9. I do not think 4 extra days mid week is making a significant dent on the population.

One thing you are not considering.... the old 4A and 4B you had to pick one or the other to hunt unless you bought the all season license.
The all-season license sales were around 10 to 15% of the total license sales statewide. So that meant there were a LOT of properties that either had no hunters one of the weekends, or their party was split between the 2 seasons.

Thats a huge benefit for deer to avoid confrontation with bullets.

Our harvest in PA 240(formerly 411) took the plunge as soon as zone 2 was enacted. The charts show it very clearly. I am not saying zone 2 was the demise, but I firmly believe it is a HUGE reason how we got to where we are.

 

[sandbur]

Until the DNR starts to manage better, that is going to be a long row to hoe....

There is going to be the subset of hunters that will not listen to anything told to them, and many wont ever receive a message of training.
Case in point.
This week I had a few friends over for beers on the deck. Deer hunting came up and one guy said that too many people have the trophy buck desire. He tried to use the analogy that you would never be out shooting your prize bull in your cattle herd. I tried to reason with him that his analogy may be slightly true if you were managing for trophy deer. Shooting the prize deer carrying great genes is not todays problem. We dont have deer in areas that should have deer.
Then he spun off saying that shooting bucks only is just dumb because then you have tons of does out in the wild not even getting bred.
He firmly believes shooting does is the right thing to do in down population years instead of shooting all the bucks..... God.... Some people just are not trainable.....


The other problem,,,,,,,
Way too many weekend warriors that do not spend 1 minute of their off season thinking about deer hunting. They show up at camp, ask who has the rifle they get to use this year and what stand he gets to sit in.
The only way to keep those hunters in check is for the DNR to limit the hunt for them.

Education is good, but it will not be a major factor in fixing problems long term.

Back to the cattle herd analogy.

If the number of beef cattle is down and you have plenty of pasture, you do not shoot your prize bull. BUT you need to ask your friend if he would ship more of his cows.

 

[Bucks&Ducks]

One thing you are not considering.... the old 4A and 4B you had to pick one or the other to hunt unless you bought the all season license.
The all-season license sales were around 10 to 15% of the total license sales statewide. So that meant there were a LOT of properties that either had no hunters one of the weekends, or their party was split between the 2 seasons.

Thats a huge benefit for deer to avoid confrontation with bullets.

Our harvest in PA 240(formerly 411) took the plunge as soon as zone 2 was enacted. The charts show it very clearly. I am not saying zone 2 was the demise, but I firmly believe it is a HUGE reason how we got to where we are.

I thought you could do both 4A and 4B if you paid for both. I very well could be wrong.

I am sure it definitely doesn't help but I think you could find other zones with similar declines in population that were always zone 1 or 2.

 

[bat man]

I am sure it definitely doesn't help but I think you could find other zones with similar declines in population that were always zone 1 or 2.

The stakeholder process showed what an extra week of rifle does. Half of my units were zone 1 and half were zone 2. Exact same latitude. The zone 1 units were in much worse shape than the zone 2. Hunter satisfaction was lower and the harvest had dropped more.

Extra days afield appeared to make a substantial difference.

 

[bat man]

On the education side I think it is much easier to get guys to lay off the girls and grow numbers than to manage bucks. On the 1,000 around my 240 I can straight up tell you no does were shot, and I would be surprised if any of our resident does were killed elsewhere.

I know the bucks roam much further and you need a ton more people on board to get them through the year.

Growing numbers is much easier than growing mature bucks simply because you need fewer guys and fewer acres to accomplish the goal.

 

[biglakeba$$]

Nope. One or the other. Or all season.

Zone 4 had very limited intensive harvest areas compared to zone 2.

We both saw the herd demise at the same time. You are correct.
New zone 2 areas got piss pounded by new pressure.
Old zone 2 was crushed by excessive years of intensive tags.

We both now see the same results but because of different reasons.

 

[sandbur]

Nope. One or the other. Or all season.

Zone 4 had very limited intensive harvest areas compared to zone 2.

We both saw the herd demise at the same time. You are correct.
New zone 2 areas got piss pounded by new pressure.
Old zone 2 was crushed by excessive years of intensive tags.

We both now see the same results but because of different reasons.

Good explanation, Mark!

 

[Greta&Gus]

On the education side I think it is much easier to get guys to lay off the girls and grow numbers than to manage bucks. On the 1,000 around my 240 I can straight up tell you no does were shot, and I would be surprised if any of our resident does were killed elsewhere.

I know the bucks roam much further and you need a ton more people on board to get them through the year.

Growing numbers is much easier than growing mature bucks simply because you need fewer guys and fewer acres to accomplish the goal.

Agreed. I honestly don't think buck age structure management means anything unless you have a high deer density. Bucks are here today and gone tomorrow.

 

[Greta&Gus]

In the last 10 years I have shot 5 bucks, only 1 did I have pics of in velvet. I had a dandy buck in velvet when he was four and five, never a pic from Sept to November.

 

[Bucks&Ducks]

Nope. One or the other. Or all season.

Zone 4 had very limited intensive harvest areas compared to zone 2.

We both saw the herd demise at the same time. You are correct.
New zone 2 areas got piss pounded by new pressure.
Old zone 2 was crushed by excessive years of intensive tags.

We both now see the same results but because of different reasons.

I know you are talking all of zone 4 but to use 411 as an example. It was intensive harvest for at least 3 years before they went to 9 day season and management before that. When 411 changed to 240 the harvest increased from 4400 to 4900. The harvest actually increased by more the year before the change when it went from 3300 to 4400.

 

[Bucks&Ducks]

The stakeholder process showed what an extra week of rifle does. Half of my units were zone 1 and half were zone 2. Exact same latitude. The zone 1 units were in much worse shape than the zone 2. Hunter satisfaction was lower and the harvest had dropped more.

Extra days afield appeared to make a substantial difference.

I am sure it has an effect but I don't know if that can be determined by more guys being upset in one zone. Also the habit at is a lot different, there are more wolves, etc. Are more days afield a factor sure but I am not sure it has been quantified. Permit areas changing from zone 4 to zone 2 would have been a great way to quantify if it wasnt coming at the tail end of getting hammered with intensive harvest permits. What we need to find is an area with constant amount of permits that changed from zone 4 to zone 2 then we could hopefully quantify the effect it has.

 

[biglakeba$$]

Here are the facts.

 

[biglakeba$$]

Here are the facts.
You are right in my wheelhouse...

2007 Stakeholders meetings(prior to the 2007 deer season), it was agreed to stabilize populations.
Somehow our manager(Don Schultz) kept us at an Intensive Harvest designation that fall and again in 2008.

This chart is simple to read.
We were Intensive Harvest in 2005 as a zone 4 hunting unit.
In 2006, we were changed to zone 2 and looky what happened.... Our harvest spiked up again.
The next year(2007) was comparable and we were again Intensive Harvest.

What happened in 2008? We were Intensive Harvest and we dropped.
And we dropped again, and again and again.
What happened. We were a Managed permit area each of the next 3 years and we kept plummeting.

Why?
Very simple.... You cant have more guys all hunting the same time frame and expect deer to live.

If there is an argument that weather and wolves might be the cause, I have news for you.

I spoke to Dino DeAngelo that is one of the top dogs in the Farmland region and he told me on a phone call that winter and wolves are not factored into population managment in permit area 240. He said 95% of deer die by lead poisoning.

In permit area 240, our problem is very simple. Deer cant survive with the pressure they have.

View attachment 5684

 

[sandbur]

They sure seem to be on my place. I was just talking with the wife about where the 2.5 and older bucks go every year. Checked my SD card today, at least 4 different bucks...only one may be a 2 yr old. Where did my older bucks from last year go? Maybe they'll show themselves later this fall. I'm doing something wrong...not sure what just yet.

Camera shy? Are we spooking them by pulling cards?

I feel many of our bucks move into the corn within the next week or so, or to small patches of cover within large corn fields. However, my cover is much different than yours.

When I used my camera, I had bucks disappear. I am confident that some bucks will wonder through my property after corn harvest. I might not hold them, but probably as good a chance as the next guy. The best buck hunting was when I did not leave my mowed yard from Aug. 1 until Nov. 1.(rifle opener).

 

[sandbur]

Agreed. I honestly don't think buck age structure management means anything unless you have a high deer density. Bucks are here today and gone tomorrow.

D and DH had an article that quoted a Texas ranch owner. He said you need lots of healthy does, to grow plenty of healthy buck fawns.
Lots of healthy buck fawns and the chance is there for aa better than average buck.

We need more does before we worry about buck age structure. CWd will change the situation anyway.