Steve Bartylla
5 year old buck +
Just when you think you have them figured out they, make a fool out of you......
Those may be the truest words ever written here. There are sooooooooooooooooooooooooooo many variables in these types of activities that it can be extremely humbling. I really don't think we'll ever be able to nail it down tight. Even if one would be able to on a particular property or two, it will likely be different on the third.
You can really see this on the grounds I manage tightly vrs the unmanaged, average hunting pressure grounds I hunt vrs the true war zone pressured grounds I hunt. I get a lot higher % of bucks living year round on the tightly managed and war zone grounds than the more typical hunting grounds.
HOWEVER, even that doesn't always hold true from property to property. a 1500 acre piece I finished off a few years back is a great piece of ground, with about a 60% cover/40% ag split. It had mature oak ridges, nasty thick stuff, a couple large ponds, ridges offering every exposure a deer could want. It is truly a special property, but I couldn't get the bucks to live there year round if my life depended on it.
The surrounding area was a 95% ag/5% overgrown drainages. As soon as the corn in those surrounding fields got knee high, you'd see a mass exodus of bucks from the property (around 10% would stay/90% gone). They'd be gone until the corn got harvested and then the mass migration back would occur. Just that quick, the bucks were no longer comfortable with the limited cover that just the drainages provided. They'd pack back into the like crazy, providing a jaw dropping density of bucks. Then the dominance structure would be reshuffled and you'd see a % get driven off again. I'm confident (based on intel and history) that the majority of the ones to have comparatively brief stays were those that had a strong drive to be dominant, but just couldn't stack up to the top dogs. Every year it was a race to get those "bleh" racked top dogs killed, before they drove off the a % of the best 3.5-4.5s (and the 5.5+ with great head gear, but lacking the bodies/fighting skills/temperament to match). Because the surrounding areas are/were so easy to hunt, those that got driven out didn't return the next year very often.
The reason I keep "qualifying" so many statements I make about buck behavior is that I don't believe that there is 1 or even just 2 right answers. I think the very best we can hope to achieve is to make somewhat educated guesses on what will happen (and be right more often than wrong), based on the habitat (both on the property and the surrounding areas), population dynamics and hunting pressure.
For me, that's what's so fascinating about these types of subjects. They're intricate puzzles and we often don't have all the pieces to fit it together, no matter how hard we try. Frankly, I don't think most even has to know why. IMO, the most important part for those wanting to truly max their opportunities is merely know what they tend to do on that ground. Know that and you can make better decisions/formulate better game plans.
If you're going to have that influx, you may not want to kill that first 2.5 year old you see. At the same time, killing that older, nasty 100" 7 point may be a very high priority. If you don't have the influx, you'll likely eat that tag if you wait for something better to show up. I'm not saying you'll always be right. You're just playing the odds, which is what I do in soooooo much of hunting and management. Consistently play the odds over the long run and you win more than you lose.