Any fellow farmers out there??

[BuckSutherland]

A few pics from this spring....

I dont like to work soy stubble in the fall, even though I have high organic matter black muck for soil.




I put in a test plot this year and ran at two different populations. I planted each hybrid once at 30,000 and then back at 35,000. Most of this corn is for release next year. I get to test the latest and greatest usually a year before most farmers ever hear about these new hybrids.



This field I pattern tiled in 2016. It made 227 corn in 2017 with 26% hail damage. Last year my soybeans made about 70 BPA. Would have been 80, but they got sudden death syndrome (SDS) in places. I will put all of my Nitrogen on when the corn is approximately 1 foot tall. Glad I dont have it out there now. I love my residue laying on top. My row cleaners take care of it.



Got most of my beans in, sprayed, and rolled.

 

[BuckSutherland]

I found a ton of mud this year just like everyone else. I BLEEPING hate mud. Mud and planters DO NOT mix. I spent many hours scraping mud off trying to get this shit planted. It was either go and fight the mud in places or wait and be up against the calendar.



Hopefully this is my last year filling the fertilizer hoppers with baskets. I tossed 22,000 lb of fert into the planter with these plastic totes.




The reward, and the help (or lack of)....

 

[ssesox]

This isn't the 1970's and we can't turn back the clock. We live in a worldwide economy that has had many benefits, namely cheap consumer goods which has stimulated our economy and allowed us to spend our money elsewhere. Unfortunately there has been some losers in the worldwide economy. Textile clothing makers. Tariffs are a TAX on our consumers, manufactures, farmers. Capitalism wants the best products at the best prices regardless of where it comes from. If the Chinese want to pay more for their stuff because of protectionism policies its their loss and that's why they will always be second place. Here's another reason the Chinese won't budge. They know there's election in a year! Trump is going to lose the trade war and take down the economy he likes to take credit for in the process and unfortunately the rest of the Republican party who used to be pro business have joined the Trump Cult. The White House is a Clown show. Its sad and really kind of scary. Just like the Donald tweeted I could shoot a person on main street and his supporters will still defend him

 

[4wanderingeyes]

I was just told that corn is 90% in around me, beans or pretty low at about 30%. But there is plenty of time to get that in.

 

[BuckSutherland]

I was just told that corn is 90% in around me, beans or pretty low at about 30%. But there is plenty of time to get that in.

McLeod County is probably about 75-80% on corn and about 5-10% on beans. For sure it wont all get planted. The prevent plant check is about enough to pay the average rent and spray a burn down of weeds in a few weeks and maybe get a cover crop in. Farmers here can take PP after May 31 for corn and June 5 for beans. I got 100% of my corn in and all but about 7 acres of beans that wont be fit for a month now. Big yield hits every day its not planted after May 20.

Corn could be ok in my county, but beans will suck cause they are gonna get mudded in and most of them wont be planted until early June at best. Not to mention weeds are gonna have a banner year. Hearing of some horrendous money situations for some guys in the area. Some of them are in deep to the coop and the grain is all gone already.

I would be shocked if corn price doesn't move 50 cents higher really soon. Hope it does cause I have 2018 and 2019 crop to sell and some futures contracts that are finally back to green. Barges cant get fertilizer up or take corn back down cause the rivers are way too high. Added lots of cost to fertilizer this spring.

 

[OakSeeds]

Food for thought … I'm not so sure your analysis will prove to be correct .. with all due respect.

"We buy more from them than they buy from us, so they will be hurt more than the US - there is no question about that. Eventually they will cave in since they cannot replace a customer" …….. Can American farmers replace a market that contains 1 out of 5 customers in the world? Especially since many of the other densely populated countries are not consumer oriented with very low income levels.

"The same will happen with the food produced in the US. There are still as many people in the world as there were before the trade war started. And they still have to eat something." …. Will the 4 out of 5 folks in the rest of the world (excluding China) increase their consumption of ag products to compensate for the loss of the China market?


China Population (2019) - Worldometers
https://www.worldometers.info/world-population/china-population
The current population of China is 1,415,534,008 as of Friday, August 3, 2018, based on the latest United Nations estimates. China population is equivalent to 18.54% of the total world population. China ranks number 1 in the list of countries (and dependencies) by population. The population density in China is 151 per Km2 (390 people per mi2).

 

[Ben.MN/WI]

There is no way China will give up on the us as a customer. The value of Ag we export to them is minuscule relative to the value of goods we import. If we quit buying cheap Chinese goods, our prices will go up a fair amount and we go out to eat less than usual to compensate. If we quit buying cheap Chinese goods, the cheap Chinese manufacturing will get shifted to lower cost regions and China will have 250 million unemployed people who don't have enough money to buy food. They will never let that happen.

I agree a trade war hits farmers harder than most, which is not good. But there are plenty of ways to make that up to the farmer to make sure they are not bearing the brunt of the damage. I'm congidrnt that will happen.

 

[bwoods11]

Buck— great yields on corn and soybeans. Hopefully prices continue to rally!!

 

[OakSeeds]

Ben …. I hope you are right.

Interesting read showing the historical development of U S ag exports to China …. in 15 years, they went from last to first. More recently, they have dropped back behind Canada and Mexico ….

https://farmpolicynews.illinois.edu/2017/06/u-s-ag-exports-china-soybeans-corn/

 

[Bill]

I BLEEPING hate mud.

I’m hoping I don’t have to do that....every time I play in the mud I end up plugging a seed tube or two and skip a bunch of rows. Not that the deer care. I just can’t stand laying in the mud picking it out of drill!

 

[BuckSutherland]

They are releasing details of round 2 of MFP payments to farmers today. Sounds like $2 bushel for soybeans based on planted acres. This time instead of actual production it will be based off county average from what I am hearing. That's a penalty for me since I usually crush the county average.

I hate this crap. At the end of the day JD, CIH, Monsanto, Dupont, all other companies involved in AG, SNAP, and land owners are the real winners. I can see why they are doing it though.

 

[Mortenson]

Based on planted acres this year or some type of historical average?

 

[Ben.MN/WI]

The farmer renting my mn acres backed out this year, so I planted 12 acres of soybeans myself for the first time. Maybe that $2/bushel bonus will be nice if it is true.

 

[Ben.MN/WI]

Ben …. I hope you are right.

Interesting read showing the historical development of U S ag exports to China …. in 15 years, they went from last to first. More recently, they have dropped back behind Canada and Mexico ….

https://farmpolicynews.illinois.edu/2017/06/u-s-ag-exports-china-soybeans-corn/

It would be nice if there was another way to get China to play fair, but I really believe this is the best way to get them to change their ways. Politely asking hasn't worked too well so far, so I think this will work better.

 

[BuckSutherland]

Based on planted acres this year or some type of historical average?

I am picking up on lots of rumors this morning. We will know more shortly when they release all the details.

 

[bwoods11]

Beans are slightly lower than during the last few years of Hope & Change! Corn, wheat, hogs, beef all up. With the extra $2 farmers will exceed the last two Barack Obama. Beans were @ 8.60 and 8.65 in both 15 & 16.

Corn dropped to $3.16 under Obama in 2016 with no tariffs, and he tripled the farmers health insurance with Obamacare!!

 

[Mortenson]

Any money farmers (or anyone else) make in IL will quickly be claimed and redistributed by Jabba the Pritzker!

 

[BuckSutherland]

I think its official..... The shit has finally hit the fan. Only 38.6 million acres of the 92 million projected to be planted yet and field conditions are downright miserable. Beans are worse. All of North Dakota and parts of South Dakota could start taking prevent plant corn (PP) on their crop insurance starting May 25th for corn. MN, parts of WI and SD can and will start taking PP on May 31st. Iowa, the rest of Wi and SD, IN, OH, and N Illinois can start taking prevent plant on June 5th. Many acres in Iowa, Nebraska, IL, MO, etc need to be replanted cause the seed rotted in wet conditions. 3.6 million acres of PP corn is the record. We will smash that this year.


I have 3 July contracts on the board and they have improved almost $14,000 in the last 15 days. I think its highly likely corn goes at least another dollar yet even with no trade deal. Seed and chemical returns should be massive this year. I am likely in the 1% of people that actually have a shot for a really good crop. Mine has the potential emerged, just need the weather to cooperate. I only have a tiny bit of N on already so mine has dodged the heavy rains so far and has a better shot of being there at the end when the crop really needs it.

 

[Mortenson]

If 3.6 is the record, then it seems it will get crushed this year. Mother Nature always bats last and she carries a big stick. Farmers are famous for crying wolf but this year is different. It feels early yet but it's absolutely not. It's just been cool and wet. My backyard gauge caught an unforecast .5" at lunch and almost 2" more tonight so far. Your corn looks good. Sidedress liquid? Looks like you planted your curve with gps but I think I see the row squeeze down to 25" off that filter strip.

 

[r49740]

This is my first year "farming" since I just got the property August last year. Had fields limed about a month or so ago. Was finally able to get in last Thursday to spray to kill off all the garbage in the fields. They are starting to brown up nicely. Need some dry days so we can actually plow it under and get it ready to plant. Have alfalfa/timothy going in for the most part. Only need about 20 round bales a year for the horses, going to sell the rest. Should get around 250 or so left over. Any idea what that hay goes for? Also hoping to get corn in in time for the deer. I dont make a living at farming like a lot of you so not as big a problem for me, but this constant rain we've had is aggravating.