roymunson
5 year old buck +
I won't buy Heinz because they are affiliated with the Steelers and Ben Roetlisberger has made my life miserable for too long. I'm a principled man.
Go Browns
All Things Habitat - Lets talk.....
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Stock Market is the bottom in?
- Thread starter Peplin Creek
- Start date
Go Browns
Telemark
5 year old buck +
I think they are under investigation by the SEC. They are one of the companies I see recovering well in the next 3-5 years. Their share price has been dropping significantly since before the crash, and Covid just pushed it off a cliff. But I am not an expert, and this is not advice. I just think they will be able to recover and turn things around by running a tighter ship and focusing more on innovation in changing markets.
BuckSutherland
5 year old buck +
Why the hell do you insist on commenting about something that you clearly don't know jack shit about? Soybeans ARE NOT "a fraction" of China ag imports from the United States. They are the bulk, and nothing else even comes close. In fact, soy by itself has been greater than all other commodities combined as an export to China. So to go from $24 billion in total sales down to $9 billion doesn't exactly feel like winning to the farming community. Please tell us more Mr. Know it all.
https://www.mda.state.mn.us/sites/default/files/inline-files/profilechina.pdf
Gator
5 year old buck +
I don’t do individual stocks but will buy funds that follow S&P for example outside of my 401k.
I just switched my 401k to be all in for the next 4 paychecks except for just enough to retain my company matching dollars for the rest of the year. I’m hoping the next two months are the lows and the recovery starts shortly after that. Anybody else done something similar?
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I just switched my 401k to be all in for the next 4 paychecks except for just enough to retain my company matching dollars for the rest of the year. I’m hoping the next two months are the lows and the recovery starts shortly after that. Anybody else done something similar?
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Tree Spud
5 year old buck +
Based on the Browns history vs the Steelers, have someone else make your investment choices
If you can't afford to be all in all the time, you most definitely want to be as much in as you can during a recession. This is when wealth is built. I would personally prolong the 4 paychecks as long as you can afford. We're not getting back to ATHs for a long time.
I'm 58 and max out my 401K and my ESPP. I am fortunate to be in a position to do so but when I was younger with young kids, I did not always do so.
I've made round 1 of my stock purchases this week and plan on round 2 but I can't say when. I'm holding out now because I believe we'll test the lows again. However, any time you can buy when stocks are this reduced is a good time to buy. Timing the lows to buy and the highs to sell is a crap shoot.
Probably info overload but since it is Friday, here is the daily report in full.
pril 3, 2020
What Happened in the Markets?
• US stocks fell on Friday, as the S&P 500 declined 1.6% to close at 2,489. With the sell-off, the index is now down 23% year to date and has corrected 26.5% from the February 19 all-time high.
• There were a number of headlines for markets to digest on Friday, with energy markets and employment data in focus. Friday morning saw the release of the March non-farm payrolls report, which showed the US economy shed 700,000 jobs last month. While job losses were larger than expected, the figure was perhaps less surprising given the spike in jobless claims seen in recent weeks. Energy markets were also in focus, as reports suggesting several large oil-producing nations may agree to production cuts as soon as next week, sent oil prices rallying more than 10% for a second consecutive session.
• Ten of the 11 S&P 500 sectors were lower Friday, with Consumer Staples (+0.5%) the only positive, while Materials (-2.3%) and Utilities (-3.6%) lagged the broader market.
• Rates were virtually unchanged across the curve, with the yield on the 10-year closing at 0.61% as of the 4 p.m. equity close. The yield curve was little changed. WTI oil rose 12.5% on the session, ending the biggest weekly percentage gain in history for the commodity; gold increased 0.5%; the US dollar was modestly higher, as measured by the US Dollar Index.
Catalysts for Market Move
US stocks slid into the weekend, as the S&P 500 fell 1.6% on Friday. Markets had much to digest during the session, starting with the morning’s release of the March non-farm payrolls report. The report showed the US economy shed 700,000 jobs last month, more than the consensus forecast calling for 100,000 jobs lost. While the data came in worse than expected, perhaps it was unsurprising given the recent spike in the weekly jobless claims data. While the recent headlines surrounding unemployment have been staggering, the market’s response has been muted, perhaps suggesting some of the bad news is already in the price. Further, while the spike in unemployment reflects the devastating impact the “sudden stop” in the economy is having on businesses and the labor market, these impacts are likely to be mitigated by the equally dramatic response from policy makers as monetary and fiscal policy measures have been enacted. Outside of the jobs figures, oil markets were in focus Friday, as reports suggest large, global oil-producing nations are planning a meeting next week at which they will discuss potential cuts to output. Oil prices rallied more than 10% for a second day Friday, with WTI oil prices ending the week more than 30% higher from last week’s close.
Last week a one-two punch of monetary and fiscal policy was delivered in the US, as policy makers look to confront the current economic challenges. On the monetary front, last Monday the Federal Reserve announced a slew of new initiatives aimed at stabilizing fixed income markets in an effort to ensure liquidity flows through the financial system. On the fiscal front, the Coronavirus Aid, Relief and Economic Security (CARES) Act was signed into law last Friday evening; the CARES Act calls for $2 trillion+ in federal assistance and loans for those individuals, businesses and organizations most affected by the “sudden stop” in economic activity caused by the spread of the coronavirus. As it has become clearer in recent weeks that the economy will take a near-term hit as a result of disruption associated with the spread of the coronavirus, markets have seemingly been calling on policy makers to act, as both fiscal and monetary policy will likely be needed to address the economic risks at hand; with the enactment of the CARES Act alongside unprecedented levels of monetary support offered by the Federal Reserve, it would appear policy makers are answering that call.
While markets have struggled for much of the past six weeks as the virus and its economic-related impacts have spread across the globe, last week’s decisive action from US policy makers may have changed the tide; the S&P 500 has now rallied ~12% since last Monday’s intra-day low. This comes after a period in which the S&P 500 failed to rally in consecutive sessions in more than a month of trading. That said, the pickup in volatility remains unsettling. Investors should be prepared for the market to remain volatile in the coming weeks, particularly given the nature of the current market sell-off, which has been driven, in part, by anxiety over the unknown as it relates to the spread of the coronavirus. To that end, the market is pricing in volatility to remain extraordinarily high, as measured by the CBOE Volatility Index, or the VIX. The VIX tested its 2008 Financial Crisis highs in mid-March spiking above 80, but has since fallen into the 60s last week, and below 50 this week. Importantly, even with Friday’s sell-off in stocks, the VIX did move lower during the session. While the VIX has come down from recent highs, current levels still imply a ~3% daily average move for the S&P 500 over the next 30 days. From a relative valuation standpoint, equity earnings and dividend yields also look attractive when compared to long- term Treasury rates, suggesting the market has priced in substantial risk, and opportunities may be presenting themselves for long- term oriented investors.
The Global Investment Committee’s Outlook
The dual shocks of coronavirus and the collapse of OPEC-plus, causing oil prices to fall dramatically, are likely to push the global economy into recession over the next 1-2 quarters, ending the 11-year business cycle. However, the swift and furious bear market sell- off since the S&P 500 all-time high on February 19 leaves most asset classes already fully discounting that outcome. Furthermore, we are anticipating an increasingly coordinated “do whatever it takes” stance from global policymakers who are likely to deliver both monetary and fiscal stimulus that should stabilize things as we navigate the human disruption and health-related parts of the crisis. On the other side of the recession, we see potential for a V-shaped global recovery. Green shoots were already visible outside the US, and inside the US, the foundational health of the consumer has never been stronger to weather a recession, i.e., low unemployment, strong balance sheets and housing market with momentum. Consequently, on March 13, the GIC reduced exposures to long-duration Treasuries and began rebuilding exposure to US large-cap growth, US small/mid-cap stocks, and high-quality investment grade credits that are benchmarked to the Bloomberg Barclays US Aggregate. While we believe the current equity market correction constitutes a cyclical bear market within a longer-term equity bull market, the GIC believes a new multi-year bear market in fixed income has begun.
The next leg of the secular bull market in equities is unlikely to see the same leaders as the past decade—namely Technology and Consumer Discretionary stocks. Instead, the GIC sees Financials, Industrials and Health Care stocks likely to outperform. Volatility over the next few quarters should be exploited frequently to rebalance portfolios to strategic asset allocations.
pril 3, 2020
What Happened in the Markets?
• US stocks fell on Friday, as the S&P 500 declined 1.6% to close at 2,489. With the sell-off, the index is now down 23% year to date and has corrected 26.5% from the February 19 all-time high.
• There were a number of headlines for markets to digest on Friday, with energy markets and employment data in focus. Friday morning saw the release of the March non-farm payrolls report, which showed the US economy shed 700,000 jobs last month. While job losses were larger than expected, the figure was perhaps less surprising given the spike in jobless claims seen in recent weeks. Energy markets were also in focus, as reports suggesting several large oil-producing nations may agree to production cuts as soon as next week, sent oil prices rallying more than 10% for a second consecutive session.
• Ten of the 11 S&P 500 sectors were lower Friday, with Consumer Staples (+0.5%) the only positive, while Materials (-2.3%) and Utilities (-3.6%) lagged the broader market.
• Rates were virtually unchanged across the curve, with the yield on the 10-year closing at 0.61% as of the 4 p.m. equity close. The yield curve was little changed. WTI oil rose 12.5% on the session, ending the biggest weekly percentage gain in history for the commodity; gold increased 0.5%; the US dollar was modestly higher, as measured by the US Dollar Index.
Catalysts for Market Move
US stocks slid into the weekend, as the S&P 500 fell 1.6% on Friday. Markets had much to digest during the session, starting with the morning’s release of the March non-farm payrolls report. The report showed the US economy shed 700,000 jobs last month, more than the consensus forecast calling for 100,000 jobs lost. While the data came in worse than expected, perhaps it was unsurprising given the recent spike in the weekly jobless claims data. While the recent headlines surrounding unemployment have been staggering, the market’s response has been muted, perhaps suggesting some of the bad news is already in the price. Further, while the spike in unemployment reflects the devastating impact the “sudden stop” in the economy is having on businesses and the labor market, these impacts are likely to be mitigated by the equally dramatic response from policy makers as monetary and fiscal policy measures have been enacted. Outside of the jobs figures, oil markets were in focus Friday, as reports suggest large, global oil-producing nations are planning a meeting next week at which they will discuss potential cuts to output. Oil prices rallied more than 10% for a second day Friday, with WTI oil prices ending the week more than 30% higher from last week’s close.
Last week a one-two punch of monetary and fiscal policy was delivered in the US, as policy makers look to confront the current economic challenges. On the monetary front, last Monday the Federal Reserve announced a slew of new initiatives aimed at stabilizing fixed income markets in an effort to ensure liquidity flows through the financial system. On the fiscal front, the Coronavirus Aid, Relief and Economic Security (CARES) Act was signed into law last Friday evening; the CARES Act calls for $2 trillion+ in federal assistance and loans for those individuals, businesses and organizations most affected by the “sudden stop” in economic activity caused by the spread of the coronavirus. As it has become clearer in recent weeks that the economy will take a near-term hit as a result of disruption associated with the spread of the coronavirus, markets have seemingly been calling on policy makers to act, as both fiscal and monetary policy will likely be needed to address the economic risks at hand; with the enactment of the CARES Act alongside unprecedented levels of monetary support offered by the Federal Reserve, it would appear policy makers are answering that call.
While markets have struggled for much of the past six weeks as the virus and its economic-related impacts have spread across the globe, last week’s decisive action from US policy makers may have changed the tide; the S&P 500 has now rallied ~12% since last Monday’s intra-day low. This comes after a period in which the S&P 500 failed to rally in consecutive sessions in more than a month of trading. That said, the pickup in volatility remains unsettling. Investors should be prepared for the market to remain volatile in the coming weeks, particularly given the nature of the current market sell-off, which has been driven, in part, by anxiety over the unknown as it relates to the spread of the coronavirus. To that end, the market is pricing in volatility to remain extraordinarily high, as measured by the CBOE Volatility Index, or the VIX. The VIX tested its 2008 Financial Crisis highs in mid-March spiking above 80, but has since fallen into the 60s last week, and below 50 this week. Importantly, even with Friday’s sell-off in stocks, the VIX did move lower during the session. While the VIX has come down from recent highs, current levels still imply a ~3% daily average move for the S&P 500 over the next 30 days. From a relative valuation standpoint, equity earnings and dividend yields also look attractive when compared to long- term Treasury rates, suggesting the market has priced in substantial risk, and opportunities may be presenting themselves for long- term oriented investors.
The Global Investment Committee’s Outlook
The dual shocks of coronavirus and the collapse of OPEC-plus, causing oil prices to fall dramatically, are likely to push the global economy into recession over the next 1-2 quarters, ending the 11-year business cycle. However, the swift and furious bear market sell- off since the S&P 500 all-time high on February 19 leaves most asset classes already fully discounting that outcome. Furthermore, we are anticipating an increasingly coordinated “do whatever it takes” stance from global policymakers who are likely to deliver both monetary and fiscal stimulus that should stabilize things as we navigate the human disruption and health-related parts of the crisis. On the other side of the recession, we see potential for a V-shaped global recovery. Green shoots were already visible outside the US, and inside the US, the foundational health of the consumer has never been stronger to weather a recession, i.e., low unemployment, strong balance sheets and housing market with momentum. Consequently, on March 13, the GIC reduced exposures to long-duration Treasuries and began rebuilding exposure to US large-cap growth, US small/mid-cap stocks, and high-quality investment grade credits that are benchmarked to the Bloomberg Barclays US Aggregate. While we believe the current equity market correction constitutes a cyclical bear market within a longer-term equity bull market, the GIC believes a new multi-year bear market in fixed income has begun.
The next leg of the secular bull market in equities is unlikely to see the same leaders as the past decade—namely Technology and Consumer Discretionary stocks. Instead, the GIC sees Financials, Industrials and Health Care stocks likely to outperform. Volatility over the next few quarters should be exploited frequently to rebalance portfolios to strategic asset allocations.
Telemark
5 year old buck +
You're cherry picking data! In one graph you show data from 2000-2017 and in the next you show data from 2014-2018! That is not an apples to apples comparison. The link you provided contradicts what you said, with a graph that clearly shows an upward trend in US ag exports to China over the last 20 years. One year of a trade dispute does not make a trend.
What you are doing is called the fallacy of inomplete evidence. You are using a limited set of data to support your conclusion while ignoring the larger data set which contradicts your conclusion.
You either didn't notice, or you ignored the two graphs on a two-page PDF that clearly show a massive increase in US ag exports to China over the last 20nyears. I have highlighted some of the important information to point out the trend I'm referring to.
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weekender21
5 year old buck +
I'll be amazed if the DOW doesn't dip to at least 15,000 over the next few weeks/months. The "rebound" of the economy is very uncertain at this point. It's going to take much longer to climb up than it did to fall. People are going to be gun shy about flying and traveling in general for a long time. There will certainly be businesses that permanently close. I don't day trade and don't even bother looking at my IRA's. I'm in it for the long haul, no reason to sweat.
Gator
5 year old buck +
I max my contributions $19500 I’m just choosing to “front load” if you will during the next 2 months but making sure there’s enough buffer to continue to get the 5% match for the remainder of the year
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BuckSutherland
5 year old buck +
Ok genius, lets see if I can dumb it down enough for you to understand. China WAS WAS WAS a top US export destination for US ag products UNTIL the tariffs went on back in the early summer of 2018. Almost 2 years ago (or in farmer language 2 crops ago). They sure as hell aren't anymore like you claim. In Post 63, you said that China gets most of its AG imports from the US. THAT IS COMPLETE AND TOTAL BULLSHIT and 100% FALSE! For a long time South America, and especially Brazil has been increasing market share to China and has now surpassed the US by a long ways in total AG exports, especially soybeans. China has been heavily investing in infrastructure in SA(deep water ports, rail roads and clearing farm land).
The trend of US ag exports HAD HAD HAD been climbing over 2 decades and then in 2018, it fell off a cliff (From an average of $24-26 billion down to $9-10 billion). For 2 years the United States has been the exporter of last resort to China. They would only come here and buy if the cupboards were empty or if they were trying to extend a fig leaf during the trade talks. How would most other business worldwide do if their #1 customer decided to take away 60% of their business for two years and give it to the competition????
In 2018, the Trump administration saw what they did to the crop and livestock markets and issued MFP (Market Facilitation Payments) to the tune of about $12 billion in direct payments. In 2019, the MFP increased up to about $14.5 cause the export markets that we USED TO HAVE were crushed.
Are you starting to understand the difference between the past and the present yet???? I dont know too many farmers that can survive on nostalgia and past sales. The slimy Chinese assholes haven't bought a fucking thing worthwhile since signing the trade deal and our markets are complete garbage. If you get a chance you should go over and sign up for Ag Talk and bring all of your good news and nostalgia with you cause the guys over there are ready to start committing suicide and losing the farms at an epic pace. They will love to hear just how good they have it.
BuckSutherland
5 year old buck +
Post made by you in this thread:
#63- China gets most of it's ag imports from the US - FALSE- that would be Brazil
#71- And AG exports have been increasing since the trade dispute in 2018.- FALSE- they have plummeted to 30-40% of what they WERE
#71-"U.S. total exports of agricultural products to China totaled $9.3 billion in 2018, our 4th largest agricultural export market."- That's great, they averaged about $25 billion from 2012-2017 EACH YEAR and your already contradicting what you said in post 63 with them going from #1 to #4. They used to be the clear #1.
#80- Soybeans are a fraction of Chinese ag imports- FALSE, they are the bulk at over 50% of total exports alone. More valuable than all other commodities combined.
#89- You cant seem to comprehend where exports currently sit compared to what they were and what the trend was for the previous two decades. Its not one bad year. Its entering year number 3 with no end in sight. (2018, 2019, 2020). I have two MFP checks from 2018 and 2019 sitting in my bank account to prove it.
#93-I'll bet you another $100 China at least doubles that $9 billion over the next few years.- That's great and we only have to wait a few years to get there!! That should put us up around $18-19 billion annually. Too bad on average we were over $25 billion a year for the years leading up to the trade war. And too bad the trade agreement we just signed calls for them to take $40-50 billion dollars per year, starting this year 2020. Yet they havent hardly bought a fucking thing. At the current price they could buy the entire 2019, US corn crop and still not make it to the pledged $40-50 billion dollars. I'm telling you guys there is a major crisis hitting farms right now TODAY and the overwhelming majority of them are down to a few months/weeks/days before its all over.
Its OK to be wrong. I thought in early February the US was likely to be able to stop the coronavirus. Turns out I was dead wrong and have no problem admitting it. You wouldnt happen to be an engineer would you??
FYI---from last night
“BEAR MARKETS END WITH RECESSIONS”
“With the forced liquidation of assets in the past month largely
behind us, unprecedented and unbridled monetary and fiscal intervention led by
the US, and the most attractive valuation we have seen since 2011, we stick to
our recent view that the worst is behind us for this cyclical bear market that
began two years ago, not last month. Therefore, current levels in equity and
credit markets should prove to be good entry points on a 6-12-month horizon.
Bear markets END with recessions, they don’t begin with them, making the
risk/reward more attractive today than it’s been in years; with the twist that the
next leg of the bull market could look much different than the last and the
unthinkable – inflation – begins to appear.”
OPEC +(+)
On OPEC +(+) – there is an emergency meeting scheduled for Apr 9th (Thursday) for OPEC+ to discuss production cuts. Even if production cuts are agreed to, it is unlikely to deal with the demand destruction caused by COVID-19. And the participation of US E&P in these cuts is questionable at best. How these talks play out will likely take some headlines this week and be a focal point. We would be very defensive on Energy going into these talks as the chance for disappointment is higher than a viable mutually agreeable solution.
“We remain cautious on the group, and continue to prefer defensive positioning
amid the uncertain macro backdrop.”
Texas Sate regulator, Ryan Sitton, said President Trump did open the door for Texas to curtail oil supply in coordination with the rest of the world. There has been a 10MMbbl/d global supply cut discussed where the US would curtail production by 2MMbbl/d as part of the global 10MMb bl/d global supply cut. Without such a cut, the world’s supply capacity will be filled in the next 60 days. Our Oil Analyst, Martijn Rats projects an 18MMbbl/d oversupply in 2Q so a 10MMbbl/d cut would still leave an 8MMbbl/d oversupply situation.
DEEPER DROP, SLOWER CLIMB
We have revised our Q2 GDP contraction from -30% annualized to -38% annualized… note these are annualized numbers so for the quarter would be -9.50% followed by a slower rebound in 3Q and activity reaching pre-virus levels in 2021. We expect 3Q2020 GDP to increase at an annualized rate of +20.7% but from such a low base implies more work ahead. A full recovery to pre-VIRUS levels will most likely be in 2021.
“BEAR MARKETS END WITH RECESSIONS”
“With the forced liquidation of assets in the past month largely
behind us, unprecedented and unbridled monetary and fiscal intervention led by
the US, and the most attractive valuation we have seen since 2011, we stick to
our recent view that the worst is behind us for this cyclical bear market that
began two years ago, not last month. Therefore, current levels in equity and
credit markets should prove to be good entry points on a 6-12-month horizon.
Bear markets END with recessions, they don’t begin with them, making the
risk/reward more attractive today than it’s been in years; with the twist that the
next leg of the bull market could look much different than the last and the
unthinkable – inflation – begins to appear.”
OPEC +(+)
On OPEC +(+) – there is an emergency meeting scheduled for Apr 9th (Thursday) for OPEC+ to discuss production cuts. Even if production cuts are agreed to, it is unlikely to deal with the demand destruction caused by COVID-19. And the participation of US E&P in these cuts is questionable at best. How these talks play out will likely take some headlines this week and be a focal point. We would be very defensive on Energy going into these talks as the chance for disappointment is higher than a viable mutually agreeable solution.
“We remain cautious on the group, and continue to prefer defensive positioning
amid the uncertain macro backdrop.”
Texas Sate regulator, Ryan Sitton, said President Trump did open the door for Texas to curtail oil supply in coordination with the rest of the world. There has been a 10MMbbl/d global supply cut discussed where the US would curtail production by 2MMbbl/d as part of the global 10MMb bl/d global supply cut. Without such a cut, the world’s supply capacity will be filled in the next 60 days. Our Oil Analyst, Martijn Rats projects an 18MMbbl/d oversupply in 2Q so a 10MMbbl/d cut would still leave an 8MMbbl/d oversupply situation.
DEEPER DROP, SLOWER CLIMB
We have revised our Q2 GDP contraction from -30% annualized to -38% annualized… note these are annualized numbers so for the quarter would be -9.50% followed by a slower rebound in 3Q and activity reaching pre-virus levels in 2021. We expect 3Q2020 GDP to increase at an annualized rate of +20.7% but from such a low base implies more work ahead. A full recovery to pre-VIRUS levels will most likely be in 2021.
roymunson
5 year old buck +
Based on the Browns history vs the Steelers, have someone else make your investment choices
you may be completely right. But some day, some way, my time will come, and when it does, i'm going to be an even more insufferable A Hole than I currently am.
My cat told me to buy Visa last week. I don’t question his judgement.
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V and MA are my top 2 holdings in my portfolio - and by far at that. They are moat stocks for sure. It was great when MA got over $800 and then split 10-1 at around $770. It didn't take long to get from ~$77 to >$300 again. V split 4-1 at ~$260 and it too didn't take long to get from ~$67 to >$200. This is a great buy opportunity on both.
Yep - contributing until it hurts right now. As long as I keep my job, I'll be good.
