Stock Market is the bottom in?

[jsasker007]

Spot on!

 

[Tree Spud]

Things will come roaring back and lots of businesses will change hands couldn’t possibly be more opposite. If lots of businesses fail how the hell do you expect things to come roaring back?

Better , wiser business owners ... thats why many farms fail at the current scale.

 

[Telemark]

I can get you 5-10 million bushels of physical corn bought by 4 pm for $3.50 a bushel (breakeven for average MN farmer). You let me know where you want it delivered and then you can make a killing when China takes it and retire. China is getting almost all of their exports out of South America and burning down the rain forest to get it done. Hope you realize that lots of businesses changing hands will mean there is no V shaped recovery and likely a major recession.

That's just not true. China gets most of it's ag imports from the US. That has been the case for a long time. Brazil has become a significant trade partner for ag products to China, but that is likely to slow down.

 

[BuckSutherland]

That's just not true. China gets most of it's ag imports from the US. That has been the case for a long time. Brazil has become a significant trade partner for ag products to China, but that is likely to slow down.

That is completely true, especially for soybeans and corn. Since the tariffs went on China they have basically embargoed US soybeans and corn. That’s why farmers like me have been given two rounds of MFP payments in 2018 and 2019. Pre 2018, China would routinely buy a little better than 1/3 of all US soybeans production. They have bought a couple boatloads since the tariffs, but nothing meaningful. China is down in Brazil burning off the Amazon rainforest making Brazil the #1 soy producer in the world. I watch export sales weekly for over 2 years. How about you? The only thing they have taken from us was some pork. They haven’t bought shit from us since signing the trade deal.

 

[Baker]

Here is a synopsis of todays report. I can start including the full report if anyones interested though it can be laborious reading. I'm only posting the reports I think relevant.

Please find the “1% Move” for 04-02-2020 attached for your review. I have also attached the April 2020 Edition of “On the Markets” from our Global Investment Committee.
The S&P 500 closed up +2.3% to close at 2,527. Despite the record number of claims for unemployment (~6.6 million), headlines suggesting Russia and Saudi Arabia may return to the negotiating table alongside other global producers to discuss oil output cuts seemed to drive markets higher. WTI oil rose +21.7% on the session.
Inside the April 2020 Edition of “On the Markets”, I wanted to highlight (3) sections that I thought might be of interest:
“Bear Markets End With Recessions” Pointing to forced liquidation of assets, unprecedented monetary and fiscal support, and the most attractive valuation since 2011, Michael Wilson, chief investment officer and chief US equity strategist for Morgan Stanley & Co., writes the worst may be behind us for this bear market.
“Dividends May Be Attractive, but Approach With Caution” The stock market sell-off resulted in some attractive dividend yields, but not all of them are likely to be sustainable, warns Sachin Manchanda, an investment strategist with Morgan Stanley Wealth Management. He identifies where to find the more promising dividend opportunities.
“Saudi-Russia Rift Leaves Oil Prices at Multidecade Lows” Vijay Chandar, an investment strategist for Morgan Stanley Wealth Management, explains the story behind the collapse in oil prices and what it means for investors.
Please do not hesitate to reach out to us with any questions.

 

[Jordan Selsor]

I jumped in on the 23rd buying boeing, disney, ford, Spire, ATT, Viasat, Verizon, exxon. Didnt bet the farm but dropped enough to make me a bit nervous... Never done any individual stock buying before. Got sick of waiting on the finance guy so just opened up an etrade account. Really like the program so far. Super easy to navigate. Once set up can transfer money from my checking account in a matter of a few clicks... Every stock purchased is still up from the 23rd but I have a feeling the bottom will be over the next few wks. April is gonna be rough on all of us. Working on the ambulance is pretty brutal right now. Pray this doesn't go into the summer.

 

[Bill]

I jumped in on the 23rd buying boeing, disney, ford, Spire, ATT, Viasat, Verizon, exxon. Didnt bet the farm but dropped enough to make me a bit nervous... Never done any individual stock buying before. Got sick of waiting on the finance guy so just opened up an etrade account. Really like the program so far. Super easy to navigate. Once set up can transfer money from my checking account in a matter of a few clicks... Every stock purchased is still up from the 23rd but I have a feeling the bottom will be over the next few wks. April is gonna be rough on all of us. Working on the ambulance is pretty brutal right now. Pray this doesn't go into the summer.

You’re probably going to be happy or were both going to be mad. I bought Verizon on the 27th and paid more than you. Everyone alive is still using their phone. I’m kicking myself for not buying Boeing. If it dips below $100 again or gets close I’m in. Disney May take some hits with earnings going forward but if we get past it you should do really well. If we don’t what’s the difference...

going to be an interesting few months. I’ve got more on the side but like you I’m wondering??? To soon or to late.

and Verizon is probably going to still have a decent dividend. Unless we’re all walkers. Walkers don’t need phones..

 

[Buckly]

Is Boeing getting any of the stimulus ?

 

[Bill]

Is Boeing getting any of the stimulus ?

yes but so far they’ve refused it. As far as I can tell. Their a long shot right now. Kid that was up and got their a$$ handed to them long before the cv.
But when and if this ends we’re getting on a Boeing or MD to fly anywhere.

 

[SD51555]

I picked up Home Depot and Visa today. Tomorrow gonna pick up Tyson. After that, I'm gonna be pretty much back in. Still gotta hold out for something else to rebound (XOM, USB, WFC, PRU) to get back into Tractor Supply. Tractor Supply isn't down nearly enough to get back in. Too many other great companies that are off far more that can be had with more upside. I would prefer to pay 10% more for Tractor Supply down the road with cash from something else that went up 80%.

 

[Telemark]

That is completely true, especially for soybeans and corn. Since the tariffs went on China they have basically embargoed US soybeans and corn. That’s why farmers like me have been given two rounds of MFP payments in 2018 and 2019. Pre 2018, China would routinely buy a little better than 1/3 of all US soybeans production. They have bought a couple boatloads since the tariffs, but nothing meaningful. China is down in Brazil burning off the Amazon rainforest making Brazil the #1 soy producer in the world. I watch export sales weekly for over 2 years. How about you? The only thing they have taken from us was some pork. They haven’t bought shit from us since signing the trade deal.

"U.S. total exports of agricultural products to China totaled $9.3 billion in 2018, our 4th largest agricultural export market. Leading domestic export categories include: soybeans ($3.1 billion), cotton ($924 million), hides & skins ($607 million), pork & pork products ($571 million), and coarse grains (ex. corn) ($530 million).."

https://ustr.gov/countries-regions/china-mongolia-taiwan/peoples-republic-china

And AG exports have been increasing since the trade dispute in 2018.

 

[bwoods11]

3M, Apple,Disney, Valero Energy and Blackstone -I’ve added more shares.

Bought small positions in Duluth Trading and MGM.

 

[Telemark]

I jumped in on the 23rd buying boeing, disney, ford, Spire, ATT, Viasat, Verizon, exxon. Didnt bet the farm but dropped enough to make me a bit nervous... Never done any individual stock buying before. Got sick of waiting on the finance guy so just opened up an etrade account. Really like the program so far. Super easy to navigate. Once set up can transfer money from my checking account in a matter of a few clicks... Every stock purchased is still up from the 23rd but I have a feeling the bottom will be over the next few wks. April is gonna be rough on all of us. Working on the ambulance is pretty brutal right now. Pray this doesn't go into the summer.

You'll drive yourself insane following the daily price change. Check on them in 5 years and see all the money you made. Check again after 5 more years. I think your choices look really good. But don’t sweat the day-to-day; you're in it for the long term.

 

[SD51555]

3M, Apple,Disney, Valero Energy and Blackstone -I’ve added more shares.

Bought small positions in Duluth Trading and MGM.

Any top tier companies that are down more than the S&P 500 right now seem like a steal, if backed of course by proper valuations. If pickers come out of this with anything less than the best companies out there, we've done it all wrong.

 

[Telemark]

If you're into dividends, have a look at Kraft Heinz. They have good yield right now that is likely sustainable.

I'm betting on Boeing for several reasons:
1. They are waaay undervalued because they got hit with a triple whammy.
2. They are likely to survive and then prosper.
3. Airbus might struggle in the next few years if the UK decides to give Europe a bit of tit-for-tat or if Trump forces them to.

 

[MojoRisin]

I added more shares of EXAS, MA, V, TTD, SHOP, WELL, IIPR, KO, and ACB. REITs have taken a beating but I plan to add more NRZ and TWO. Those will be risky buys but the prices are so low, I just need to do it since I already have positions in both and expect them to recover fine. Also, while the news on LK is terrible and scary, I think I'm going to buy into them as well because I like them as a long play. It could be a steal or a complete bust. I'll take the risk at the current price.

I plan to do more but I really believe we're going to test the lows again.

 

[BuckSutherland]

"U.S. total exports of agricultural products to China totaled $9.3 billion in 2018, our 4th largest agricultural export market. Leading domestic export categories include: soybeans ($3.1 billion), cotton ($924 million), hides & skins ($607 million), pork & pork products ($571 million), and coarse grains (ex. corn) ($530 million).."

https://ustr.gov/countries-regions/china-mongolia-taiwan/peoples-republic-china

And AG exports have been increasing since the trade dispute in 2018.

AG exports to China arent shit compared to what they were, not even a 1/3rd. I'm reminded of one of my favorite quotes from a movie here. "Dont piss down my back and tell me its raining." In order for you to understand where we are you have to understand where we came from.


US bean sales to China peaked 3-4 years ago and Brazil has been getting all the business. But by all means keep telling me how I'm wrong. They still aren't buying shit from us since signing the trade deal. They are slimy bastards.

https://apps.fas.usda.gov/newgainap...eijing_China - Peoples Republic of_03-15-2020




US soy sales alone a few years ago were more then all total ag combined the last few years. Chuck Fina.

 

[SD51555]

If you're into dividends, have a look at Kraft Heinz. They have good yield right now that is likely sustainable.

I'm betting on Boeing for several reasons:
1. They are waaay undervalued because they got hit with a triple whammy.
2. They are likely to survive and then prosper.
3. Airbus might struggle in the next few years if the UK decides to give Europe a bit of tit-for-tat or if Trump forces them to.

Those deals scare me. High dividend yields usually happen because a stock price is cratering. KHC was a $100/sh company three years ago. They already cut their dividend once in the past year or so. They're stuck with old brands and products that are quickly falling out of favor, products dominated by cheap carbs and sugar. General Mills is fighting the same battle. These companies are dealing out diabetes and heart disease, and people are figuring it out and walking away from the brands. I'm no food evangelist, but the trend is plain to see.

 

[bwoods11]

I have not bought Kraft Heinz but be been watching the stock. They expect sales to be strong!

They have been putting out articles on food shortages, so who knows?

 

[Telemark]

AG exports to China arent shit compared to what they were, not even a 1/3rd. I'm reminded of one of my favorite quotes from a movie here. "Dont piss down my back and tell me its raining." In order for you to understand where we are you have to understand where we came from.


US bean sales to China peaked 3-4 years ago and Brazil has been getting all the business. But by all means keep telling me how I'm wrong. They still aren't buying shit from us since signing the trade deal. They are slimy bastards.
View attachment 28788
https://apps.fas.usda.gov/newgainapi/api/Report/DownloadReportByFileName?fileName=Oilseeds and Products Annual_Beijing_China - Peoples Republic of_03-15-2020

View attachment 28789


US soy sales alone a few years ago were more then all total ag combined the last few years. Chuck Fina.

Soybeans are a fraction of Chinese ag imports. You can't extrapolate out all ag imports based on a graph for soy imports. You're moving the goal posts. You make claims about ag imports in general and then only show numbers for soy imports.