Stock Market is the bottom in?
- Thread starter Peplin Creek
- Start date
SD51555
5 year old buck +
I don't. I think stocks are moving to their Q3/Q4 anticipated valuations. Price ratios are going to be all over the map the next two quarters due to a short Q1, and a partial Q2. Should it all happen in 5 days? No, that seems a little intense. We're still operating with practically no data. There's no clarity as to when the economy is going to open back up. The only thing that is becoming widely known is that we're not all going to die like we've been told the past month.
Buckly
5 year old buck +
All good points. My gut just tells me the economy could be worse than they predict through the rest of the year. I can see a big drop coming the first week of May when they say let’s go another month! I can see the lows retested in the next month. I just have a bad feeling. Maybe tomorrow I’ll have a good feeling. LOL.
FarmerDan
5 year old buck +
It depends. And I'm not sure what it depends on. From a fundamental point of view (and, yes it's my point of view), markets have been way ahead of themselves for the last two or three years, running on cheap money. Let's leave that right there. What I've learned in my old age is fundamentals don't matter - let me take that back, the risks that we take in the stock market seem disconnected from what one might perceive as a traditional interpretation.
If there's a lot of money looking for a return, then money is piling into a stock. Money piling into a stock means only a bunch of things! Well you know, prices go up. But, we forget what goes up must come down. Traders take profits, people rationalize their decisions.
Big leap now. As the market bounced off the bottom a couple days ago a friend asked if she should buy more Proctor & Gamble. I guess it depends what you think is coming. I've been studying recessions (and depressions). Hey, what else is there to do?
I think a stock's price behavior over a long period is informative. PG has a long history. It's chart is below.The orange bars are recessions. Recessions are lagging. Stock market prices are leading. So, there something to be learned by studying price behavior. And, look, the rest of the market looks a lot like this.
Long story short, in the last three recessions, from the high before the recession to the low during the recession the PG price swing was down around 40%.
Before it tanked recently it was around $130. In a few short days it went down to 96. That's a quick drop of 34%. The bottom? Personally, I don't think so. But, you might have concluded that when you read I was brushing up on recessions and depressions...just in case. IF IF IF you are recession minded then the whole market might be off 40% to 50%. Look at the DJI late 2007. I think it was around 14,000. By mid to late 2008 it was just north of 6,000 (somebody fact check that).
I think my point is, in the 11 year bull market we've been conditioned to buy the dips. What we are seeing now is that practiced response, but there's a chance the DJI is heading for 16,800 and the S&P less than 2000. A chance. Will it? If i knew, I'd be rich.
SD51555
5 year old buck +
In the past 30 days, the Fed and Federal government have printed enough money, that they could have paid off 2/3 of each home mortgage in the US. The market isn’t going down anymore, because no large entity is going to be allowed to fail.
On a fun side note, the Home Depot is up 15% in a week.
Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk
On a fun side note, the Home Depot is up 15% in a week.
Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk
Jordan Selsor
5 year old buck +
Dang good day today.
Big part of me wants to cash out an say I won.
But I guess I will wait this out an see what happens. I got to see if Boeing climbs back up to that 300 mark
Big part of me wants to cash out an say I won.
But I guess I will wait this out an see what happens. I got to see if Boeing climbs back up to that 300 mark
Jordan Selsor
5 year old buck +
You guys think Marcus theater is going to be able to weather this storm? Thinking on jumping on this one. Thoughts Opinions
SD51555
5 year old buck +
I haven't heard what kind of bailout these types of businesses may get, if anything at all. I really think there are enough quality names out there that still have big upside in them. We're 25% up off the low, and there are still deals to be had on quality names. I keep a big watch list, and there are still plenty of blown out stocks. Now, most of these I would not buy right now for any number of personal reasons (sector balance, lack of $$, uncertainty, potential dividend cuts coming etc). I share this simply for illustration of opportunity. These are numbers I ran as of close today.
***The S&P 500 is -18% off it's peak as of close today. That is the SPY at the bottom of this list. Everything above it is off more than the market yet. I think lots of that stuff isn't coming back anytime soon, but there are some gems in there.
4wanderingeyes
5 year old buck +
I am in the middle of my weekend project of building my retirement home. So every week I am either at Home Depot Or Menards picking up my weekly projects, and other then Black Friday, I have never seen them as busy, or the shelves empty. Paints and stains are slim pickings right now, along with many other items, but those are the ones I need now, so those are the ones I am complaining about them not having on their shelves.
BuckSutherland
5 year old buck +
https://www.mitchellrepublic.com/bu...pork-producers-to-consider-desperate-measures
Was reading on Ag talk that pork board met this afternoon. They are trying to find a decent way to euthanize and dispose of 5-6 million market ready hogs. Some producers expect it to end up north of 10 million. No way to get them processed and the losses are massive. If this goes on much longer there won’t be anyone left to raise them.
Was reading on Ag talk that pork board met this afternoon. They are trying to find a decent way to euthanize and dispose of 5-6 million market ready hogs. Some producers expect it to end up north of 10 million. No way to get them processed and the losses are massive. If this goes on much longer there won’t be anyone left to raise them.
S.T.Fanatic
5 year old buck +
Local guy is selling them for next to nothing If you have them processed at our local butcher shop.
I feel bad for them. They have several thousand hoggs in multiple states and will be feeling the pain of this real soon.
I feel bad for them. They have several thousand hoggs in multiple states and will be feeling the pain of this real soon.
roymunson
5 year old buck +
local chicken plant is selling chicken in "flash sale" mode for $1/ pound.
Boneless skinless breasts, tenders, or wings. 40 pound cases, $40
We put 80 pounds in the freezer last week and plan on doing it again tomorrow.Hard to beat a dollar a pound, and they're a customer of ours so I look good buying it too.
Boneless skinless breasts, tenders, or wings. 40 pound cases, $40
We put 80 pounds in the freezer last week and plan on doing it again tomorrow.Hard to beat a dollar a pound, and they're a customer of ours so I look good buying it too.
BuckSutherland
5 year old buck +
Here is some cheap pork. About $500,000 worth 2 months ago. Free today.
BuckSutherland
5 year old buck +
Highly doubtful that there will be any type of meaningful shortage that benefits the farmer. Cold storage is full of bacon and steaks since about 70% of that is consumed via restaurants last I heard. The packers might have higher prices down the road but it sure as shit wont trickle to the guys raising them. The only shortage to come out of this will be the number of farmers left to raise these animals. Its fairly easy to repopulate chickens and hogs rather quickly. Cattle are harder.
bwoods11
5 year old buck +
There was a guy on Satellite radio that claimed the shortage could last for awhile. He said the cold storage is a myth. It’s only one week of meat supply for the US.
China is short on pork as well. I see prices going up later in the summer. Beef might really jump.
Jordan Selsor
5 year old buck +
Unbelievable to waste food like that :(
