Stock Market is the bottom in?

[Bill]

I am no market expert but I really thought there would be a big dip this week. Hasn’t happened yet. Why? Certainly no good news. My thought is the trillions that came out have no where to go, there is no other attractive option. With interest rates where they are at money has to come back to stocks. I kicked myself for not getting in when it went under 19k so half way through yesterday I put half my powder back in. I will hold the rest for below 18k but that seems to be the point my gut is telling me go all in. The problem I have now is 2 of the stocks I sold 6 weeks ago(and made nice profit) are now selling higher than when I sold. I really botched getting back in because at one point they were down a lot. Now I will have to take a smaller position or ride different stocks back up. I did buy an oil stock yesterday at 5x off its high so that is probably proof to not listen to me.

Don’t feel bad I bought caterpillar and Lockheed Friday. Thought I’d take a bath yesterday but didn’t. Probably will soon but at least I’ll get a dividend as they crawl back

 

[Tree Spud]

I am no market expert but I really thought there would be a big dip this week. Hasn’t happened yet. Why? Certainly no good news. My thought is the trillions that came out have no where to go, there is no other attractive option. With interest rates where they are at money has to come back to stocks. I kicked myself for not getting in when it went under 19k so half way through yesterday I put half my powder back in. I will hold the rest for below 18k but that seems to be the point my gut is telling me go all in. The problem I have now is 2 of the stocks I sold 6 weeks ago(and made nice profit) are now selling higher than when I sold. I really botched getting back in because at one point they were down a lot. Now I will have to take a smaller position or ride different stocks back up. I did buy an oil stock yesterday at 5x off its high so that is probably proof to not listen to me.

I believe there was good news ... Federal tax filings & payments pushed back, a $2.3 Trillion stimulus package was passed, $1200 to individuals, significant aid for small business' to help with payrolls to reduce layoffs, liquidity added to the markets, and Trump did the "unthinkable", listened to his medical experts and extended the social distancing. Markets digested this as positive steps taken by the Govt.

 

[chummer]

I believe there was good news ... Federal tax filings & payments pushed back, a $2.3 Trillion stimulus package was passed, $1200 to individuals, significant aid for small business' to help with payrolls to reduce layoffs, liquidity added to the markets, and Trump did the "unthinkable", listened to his medical experts and extended the social distancing. Markets digested this as positive steps taken by the Govt.

That can be good news. I was referring to slowing of the virus but good point.

 

[Peplin Creek]

Stimulus helped stabilize the markets for the short term from the looks of it. I think one could make the argument that it’s also accounted for the short stop in the economy. I doubt death numbers will have a major effect unless it’s starts accelerating. I could see something like the month of may being added to social distancing causing it to drop lower. Otherwise Q2 earnings will be the next player for a drop. We’ll see what companies weathered the storm well.

It sure seems like positive news might play better for the market now than negative news though.

 

[Buckly]

There’s still a lot of people employed. Essential and those non essential working from home. They’re readjusting the unemployment numbers and figure it will be around 10-12 percent. Bad obviously but, not as bad as thought. All these essentials are practicing social distancing And operating. I’ve got to figure if these grocery stores and all these other businesses are operating why can’t business start up after this new 30 day delay. If a Business can devise a plan to operate safely just like these essentials are doing now I can’t see why not let that happen. We’ll probably be distancing through the fall. I’m sure it will be in stages If they shut everything down through May I really think your going to see some kind of revolt! I think there’s more room for the market to go down yet but there’s more people thinking there’s a better chance of going up 20% rather than down 20% So we might be close.

 

[Peplin Creek]

It would be nice if the volatility would ease a bit with this market though.

 

[BuckSutherland]

I think volatility is about to go up. The sharks finished Q1 by stabilizing the waters a bit, and maybe giving the head fakes and small buy signals to invite the fish into the water. As the new quarter starts we have very little positive news and increasing likelihood that new “hotspots” are going to flare up quickly and be quite ugly. The path of least resistance is down with new lows.

Oil ethanol corn beans wheat cotton milk cattle and hog markets are UGLY! There is about to be a massive amount of bankruptcies in the Ag sector. Ethanol has been dealt a death blow and will only be saved by Congress. If ethanol goes rural America goes.

 

[jsasker007]

People still have to eat. China will buy lots of ag products from us. I think AG will make a rebound. Hopefully

 

[bwoods11]

Everything sold off....this happens in very fearful situations. Gold initially dropped, now they say physical gold is hard to find. Beef sold off, even though beef was flying off the shelves in stores, and is still in short supply at grocery stores.

It will take some time, but the markets will come back, Ag products will be in demand again, when exactly, hard to say. I would "guess" prices will be up by fall.

 

[BuckSutherland]

You guys don't seem to understand what's really going on in AG. Ethanol cant just stop and start, they need to be running 24/7/365. They run on extremely tight margins like most things AG related. If the US corn crop is 14 billion bushels Ethanol grinds about 5 billion bushels. That means that 9 billion goes to other use. The current stockpile of "leftovers" is somewhere around 2 billion bushels year over year. So if ethanol gets KO'd we would move the carryout into the 5-7 billion bushel range depending on feed usage. Price right now is under $3 with the 2 billion bushel carryover. I'm guessing corn might be worth $1.50 a bushel if ethanol dies if we are lucky. Maybe under $1 towards the Dakotas. What does that do to land values, rental income and real estate taxes that fund so much of rural America? Yesterday the USDA predicted 97 million acres of corn and 180 BPA yield. After acres taken for silage, loss to hail, other disasters would leave us with about 90 million acres for harvest and a 15-16 billion bushel crop and maybe 10 billion bushels of use. The carryout could get as large as a years worth of crop FAST.

Get into a state like Nebraska where the property tax alone can exceed $100/acre on farm ground and you will see carnage. Try taking something to the JD or Case dealer and have it repaired for their shop rate and the current prices of crops. The vast majority of southern MN, most of IA, and most of the Dakotas is driven by the farm economy. Margins were already thin as hell. We cant be profitable on hope. And Smile China, they haven't bought a damn thing. They are slimy lying thieving assholes.

Also go talk to a cattle or hog producer and see how they are doing with this. They are getting raped by the packers, and now these plants are starting to shut down cause the workers are getting sick. They might not have anywhere to go with animals in a real hurry and contracts to take the next batch and nowhere to go with them. I have heard estimates that the loss for the cattle industry alone since they year began is around $7-10 billion range. Joe six pack sure cant tell from being at the meat counter in the grocery store since the price is way up. ALL of the profit went to the packers, none to the farmer or rural America.

The bloodbath is real. If you have rental income from farmland its coming to you in a hurry. Lots of contracts made to ethanol plants over the last year are being torn up (force majure). Farmer is still on the hook for inputs, rent, etc and will just get foreclosed on. They might have contracted at a profit and now will have to sell at a huge loss. It will all lead to more consolidation and more control for those in power which is a BAD thing for future generations. Its gonna be a great time to be an auction company.

 

[jsasker007]

Lots of businesses probably will change hands. The major ethanol push peaked about 8-10 years ago. China will buy from the US. They haven't bought anything from us because they were teaching us a lesson and that has come to an end. China has no way to feed themselves(supply and demand) so they will buy from our country because we produce way more than we can ever consume here(we have to sell and they need to buy). President Trump got us a better deal on our AG that will be sold to China(now we make more profit on what we sell). When ethanol was new everyone was saying that is the future---it's not. Our president knows how to make beneficial deals for our country--THANK GOD.

 

[S.T.Fanatic]

Over the past 20 years there has been plenty of things that have negatively impacted my industry. We have had to adapt and make changes to be able to keep employees busy and stay profitable. Farmers should start thinking about doing the same. (a long time ago) I am not anti agriculture and you are spot on about Ag running the economy (or a major part of it) in Southern Minnesota. We have many customers who are farmers or who make there living in the industry and we are thankful for every single one of them.

I don't know what the answer is but more corn (candy,pop,and gasoline), soy, beef, and milk isn't it unless we are talking about increasing exports.

 

[BuckSutherland]

I can get you 5-10 million bushels of physical corn bought by 4 pm for $3.50 a bushel (breakeven for average MN farmer). You let me know where you want it delivered and then you can make a killing when China takes it and retire. China is getting almost all of their exports out of South America and burning down the rain forest to get it done. Hope you realize that lots of businesses changing hands will mean there is no V shaped recovery and likely a major recession.

 

[bwoods11]

I can get you 5-10 million bushels of physical corn bought by 4 pm for $3.50 a bushel (breakeven for average MN farmer). You let me know where you want it delivered and then you can make a killing when China takes it and retire. China is getting almost all of their exports out of South America and burning down the rain forest to get it done. Hope you realize that lots of businesses changing hands will mean there is no V shaped recovery and likely a major recession.

If China doesn’t buy Ag products, they will violate the trade agreement and tariffs are back on. I kind of doubt they want to go down that road, after starting the nationwide Coronavirus disaster.

 

[Tree Spud]

You guys don't seem to understand what's really going on in AG. Ethanol cant just stop and start, they need to be running 24/7/365. They run on extremely tight margins like most things AG related. If the US corn crop is 14 billion bushels Ethanol grinds about 5 billion bushels. That means that 9 billion goes to other use. The current stockpile of "leftovers" is somewhere around 2 billion bushels year over year. So if ethanol gets KO'd we would move the carryout into the 5-7 billion bushel range depending on feed usage. Price right now is under $3 with the 2 billion bushel carryover. I'm guessing corn might be worth $1.50 a bushel if ethanol dies if we are lucky. Maybe under $1 towards the Dakotas. What does that do to land values, rental income and real estate taxes that fund so much of rural America? Yesterday the USDA predicted 97 million acres of corn and 180 BPA yield. After acres taken for silage, loss to hail, other disasters would leave us with about 90 million acres for harvest and a 15-16 billion bushel crop and maybe 10 billion bushels of use. The carryout could get as large as a years worth of crop FAST.

Get into a state like Nebraska where the property tax alone can exceed $100/acre on farm ground and you will see carnage. Try taking something to the JD or Case dealer and have it repaired for their shop rate and the current prices of crops. The vast majority of southern MN, most of IA, and most of the Dakotas is driven by the farm economy. Margins were already thin as hell. We cant be profitable on hope. And Smile China, they haven't bought a damn thing. They are slimy lying thieving assholes.

Also go talk to a cattle or hog producer and see how they are doing with this. They are getting raped by the packers, and now these plants are starting to shut down cause the workers are getting sick. They might not have anywhere to go with animals in a real hurry and contracts to take the next batch and nowhere to go with them. I have heard estimates that the loss for the cattle industry alone since they year began is around $7-10 billion range. Joe six pack sure cant tell from being at the meat counter in the grocery store since the price is way up. ALL of the profit went to the packers, none to the farmer or rural America.

The bloodbath is real. If you have rental income from farmland its coming to you in a hurry. Lots of contracts made to ethanol plants over the last year are being torn up (force majure). Farmer is still on the hook for inputs, rent, etc and will just get foreclosed on. They might have contracted at a profit and now will have to sell at a huge loss. It will all lead to more consolidation and more control for those in power which is a BAD thing for future generations. Its gonna be a great time to be an auction company.

Interesting, many corn Ethanol plants we work with are now trying to boost production. The FDA just announced relaxed regulations to allow corn ethanol plants to supply alcohol that can be used to make hand sanitizes. They need to meet certain standards and about 20 ethanol producers are approved.

 

[jsasker007]

There is a big difference from the great depression compared to what our government is forcing on the people now. This "end of the world" scenario is TEMPORARY and we will get through it. We don't all have to live off of the land and eat potato 3 times a day to survive. Things will come roaring back. I'm not buying any corn from you as I don't have a need for it due to the dnr saying I can't feed deer. Otherwise I might want to buy some of that corn. Wait until the next end of the world---that one might be real.

 

[BuckSutherland]

I didn’t know the tariffs came off. Trump talked about them in his briefing yesterday. “We are taking in billions and billions of dollars.” We have 25% tariff on $250 billion dollars worth of goods was a direct quote from him. I think we may have pulled a few minor tariffs off for the deal, but the vast majority of them stayed on. A few minor purchases from us while they load the boats in South America and take all they can get. I think the average good is still tariffed over 19% from China coming into the US. You can’t do honest business with the slime balls from China.

 

[BuckSutherland]

There is a big difference from the great depression compared to what our government is forcing on the people now. This "end of the world" scenario is TEMPORARY and we will get through it. We don't all have to live off of the land and eat potato 3 times a day to survive. Things will come roaring back. I'm not buying any corn from you as I don't have a need for it due to the dnr saying I can't feed deer. Otherwise I might want to buy some of that corn. Wait until the next end of the world---that one might be real.

Things will come roaring back and lots of businesses will change hands couldn’t possibly be more opposite. If lots of businesses fail how the hell do you expect things to come roaring back?

 

[jsasker007]

Someone else will own them. If there is a need someone will step up to profit from it.

 

[Bszweda]

The problem with our modern economy is its built on DEBT. (modern day slavery) The government loves people with DEBT cause it makes them easier to control. Whatever happen to these famous lines Life, Liberty and the pursuit of Happiness. ( now we live in quasi democracy - yeah I know technically were a republic)