Stock Market is the bottom in?

If you are young and have a long time horizon for the money, simply dollar cost average into a low cost S&P each month and don't worry about ups and downs.

Its that simple

The best read i did as a young man was Bogle on Mutual Funds

This is not that hard

bill
 
If you are young and have a long time horizon for the money, simply dollar cost average into a low cost S&P each month and don't worry about ups and downs.

Not young at 45. I’m playing with profits from my farm sell trying to make enough to buy another farm.


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Also hate Fridays. We have some money to throw around but i'm just not sure if I should buy in now or wait until the market opens to see If is going to keep dropping. I bought DMTK in a dip @ 71.81 It went up for a couple of days but has done nothing but dropped since. Today just might be the day to scoop up some more.
 
Not young at 45. I’m playing with profits from my farm sell trying to make enough to buy another farm.


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Age is relative. I would classify trying to make big money in a short time period generally as gambling rather than investing. If you are talking about needing he money in a few years, good luck. If you are talking about buying a farm at retirement time, you probably have a long enough time horizon to invest.

Thanks,

Jack
 
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Home? Probably not. Small business? Definitely. More money in the economy, keeps the wheels greased. Many small businesses run on tight margins. The tide-over loans can only keep them going so long. They need sales. A little money to a lot of people can help small business. Many won't make it, but those that folks chose to patronize may. "Helping" folks is the way lawmakers take credit. Keeping the general economy from coming to a full stall is the real objective.
Then maybe they should let people go to work and allow the business to be open? Just a thought.
 
Then maybe they should let people go to work and allow the business to be open? Just a thought.

That will when the epidemiology calls for it. Let's say you have a hurricane coming. You try to get folks to take preventative measures like boarding things up and evacuating. You don't send them back and start rebuilding when the eye of the storm comes. Instead, you prevent what you can and mitigate the damage, then wait for the storm to pass, and then rebuild, hopefully with infrastructure that can better withstand future storms.

The COVID hurricane is hitting the whole world. Just like in a hurricane or wild fire, some folks did not prepare and some ignored the evacuation order. Those that ignored it put others at risk. We may be approaching the eye of the storm. The vaccine rollout has been slow but seems to be picking up. We may have a few waves to come with variants. Time will tell. As this storm passes, folks will return and rebuild. For now, most are in the evacuation shelters struggling. The money so far has been supporting them in the shelters and providing basic survival. When the storm has passed and they return, rebuilding aid money will flow. Some will build bigger and better and be able to withstand the next storm. Others will not be able to recover and rebuild and will leave and seek other employment.

So, your thought is a good one. Like most things, it just needs to be balanced with everything else. Everything has a season. :emoji_thinking:

Thanks,

Jack
 
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YJ/TD advocate using "low cost" S&P index funds - especially for younger perhaps inexperienced investors - with dollar cost averaging contributions as a less risky method of accumulating wealth over long time periods. If one chooses this strategy, and has not investigated index funds closely, the following information might be helpful.

The Cheapest S&P 500 Index Funds ... there are some with zero expenses; the next question .... how closely do they mirror the market?

Excerpts from ...... The Cheapest S&P 500 Index Funds Check Out the Index Funds With Lowest Expense Ratios
By Lee McGowan reviewed by Marquerita Cheng Updated Oct 29, 2020

"While cheaper doesn't necessarily mean better, the best S&P 500 index funds tend to be the ones with the lowest expense ratios. You shouldn't base your decision to invest in an S&P 500 index solely on price, but if you plan to invest long-term, the seemingly small differences in fees can add up to a good amount of money. Here are some of the qualities of index funds you'll want to analyze before thinking of buying."
Analyzing the Tracking Error
:The tracking error is a measure of an index fund's effectiveness in replicating or matching the performance of the benchmark index, which in this case, is the S&P 500. One drawback of researching and analyzing tracking error is that mutual fund families do not publicly display the tracking error of their index funds. However, there are a few data points you can research to analyze performance tracking.
You can go to a site, such as Morningstar, Lipper, or Kiplinger's, and see how close the historical performance of the fund has been to the target benchmark. If the returns are below the benchmark by roughly the same amount as the fund's expense ratio, the tracking error is close. For example, if a fund has an expense ratio of 0.2%, a 5-year annualized return of 10%, and a benchmark return of 10.2%, the tracking error is precise."
Analyzing the Expense Ratio
"After looking at the historical performance, while taking the expense ratio into account, which will tell you how well the fund has tracked the benchmark index in the past. For example, if an S&P 500 index mutual fund has an expense ratio of 0.2%, a 5-year annualized return of 10%, and a low tracking error might have an annualized return of roughly 9.8%. This means that the only difference between the index and the mutual fund's return is attributed to the fund's expenses."
Before Investing
"Before deciding on an index fund to invest in, be sure to keep in mind other fees, such as trading costs. For example, if you already have an account at Vanguard, you may be charged a transaction fee to purchase a mutual fund, like the Schwab S&P 500 Index, which is outside of their fund family. Typical transaction fees range between $10–$20.
If you are dollar-cost averaging by periodically purchasing shares of your S&P 500 index fund, the expense ratio may be lower, but the trading fees can make the fund more expensive than other options. You will find some of the cheapest S&P 500 funds that you can buy with $10,000 or less listed below."
Why Fees Matter
"Although S&P 500 index funds are all constructed to match and track the S&P 500, they are not the same across the board. Most notably is the difference in fees between funds. A difference in fees between 0.01% and 0.03% may not be significant, but differences of 0.05% or more between funds can make a significant difference on your wealth through your working years leading into retirement."

Examples of index fund fees from some of the more well known firms ....
Fidelity 500 Index Fund .15 Schwab S&P 500 Index Fund .02 Vanguard 500 Index Fund Investor Shares.14 T. Rowe Price Equity Index 500 Fund .21
 
Also hate Fridays. We have some money to throw around but i'm just not sure if I should buy in now or wait until the market opens to see If is going to keep dropping. I bought DMTK in a dip @ 71.81 It went up for a couple of days but has done nothing but dropped since. Today just might be the day to scoop up some more.
God help me I bought more today. This drop is nuts. I am keeping for years so drop is good for me. My first 1k shares are at $23, so that helps.
 
Who says real estate is a bad investment..

It just depends on what real estate. The beach property we bought 3 years ago just went under contract. 40% profit. 35% after all my fees. I’ll take it.

yeah, I’m getting a bigger boat!
 
God help me I bought more today. This drop is nuts. I am keeping for years so drop is good for me. My first 1k shares are at $23, so that helps.
me too
fingers crossed
 
YJ/TD advocate using "low cost" S&P index funds - especially for younger perhaps inexperienced investors - with dollar cost averaging contributions as a less risky method of accumulating wealth over long time periods. If one chooses this strategy, and has not investigated index funds closely, the following information might be helpful.

The Cheapest S&P 500 Index Funds ... there are some with zero expenses; the next question .... how closely do they mirror the market?

Excerpts from ...... The Cheapest S&P 500 Index Funds Check Out the Index Funds With Lowest Expense Ratios
By Lee McGowan reviewed by Marquerita Cheng Updated Oct 29, 2020

"While cheaper doesn't necessarily mean better, the best S&P 500 index funds tend to be the ones with the lowest expense ratios. You shouldn't base your decision to invest in an S&P 500 index solely on price, but if you plan to invest long-term, the seemingly small differences in fees can add up to a good amount of money. Here are some of the qualities of index funds you'll want to analyze before thinking of buying."
Analyzing the Tracking Error
:The tracking error is a measure of an index fund's effectiveness in replicating or matching the performance of the benchmark index, which in this case, is the S&P 500. One drawback of researching and analyzing tracking error is that mutual fund families do not publicly display the tracking error of their index funds. However, there are a few data points you can research to analyze performance tracking.
You can go to a site, such as Morningstar, Lipper, or Kiplinger's, and see how close the historical performance of the fund has been to the target benchmark. If the returns are below the benchmark by roughly the same amount as the fund's expense ratio, the tracking error is close. For example, if a fund has an expense ratio of 0.2%, a 5-year annualized return of 10%, and a benchmark return of 10.2%, the tracking error is precise."
Analyzing the Expense Ratio
"After looking at the historical performance, while taking the expense ratio into account, which will tell you how well the fund has tracked the benchmark index in the past. For example, if an S&P 500 index mutual fund has an expense ratio of 0.2%, a 5-year annualized return of 10%, and a low tracking error might have an annualized return of roughly 9.8%. This means that the only difference between the index and the mutual fund's return is attributed to the fund's expenses."
Before Investing
"Before deciding on an index fund to invest in, be sure to keep in mind other fees, such as trading costs. For example, if you already have an account at Vanguard, you may be charged a transaction fee to purchase a mutual fund, like the Schwab S&P 500 Index, which is outside of their fund family. Typical transaction fees range between $10–$20.
If you are dollar-cost averaging by periodically purchasing shares of your S&P 500 index fund, the expense ratio may be lower, but the trading fees can make the fund more expensive than other options. You will find some of the cheapest S&P 500 funds that you can buy with $10,000 or less listed below."
Why Fees Matter
"Although S&P 500 index funds are all constructed to match and track the S&P 500, they are not the same across the board. Most notably is the difference in fees between funds. A difference in fees between 0.01% and 0.03% may not be significant, but differences of 0.05% or more between funds can make a significant difference on your wealth through your working years leading into retirement."

Examples of index fund fees from some of the more well known firms ....
Fidelity 500 Index Fund .15 Schwab S&P 500 Index Fund .02 Vanguard 500 Index Fund Investor Shares.14 T. Rowe Price Equity Index 500 Fund .21
Good info and I'll add a little something to that. If you work for a company that offers a 401k traditional and/or Roth, that us usually the best place to start looking. Some companies will match your contributions up to a certain amount. That is pretty hard to beat. Many 401K plans, at least with larger companies, have some negotiating power. They will often negotiate even lower expense ratios with the financial management companies for funds purchased inside their plans.

Thanks,

Jack
 
God help me I bought more today. This drop is nuts. I am keeping for years so drop is good for me. My first 1k shares are at $23, so that helps.
What's the expression...Don't try to catch a falling sword. :emoji_smile:
 
God help me I bought more today. This drop is nuts. I am keeping for years so drop is good for me. My first 1k shares are at $23, so that helps.

Me too though I feel confident you bought more shares than I did.


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Good info and I'll add a little something to that. If you work for a company that offers a 401k traditional and/or Roth, that us usually the best place to start looking. Some companies will match your contributions up to a certain amount. That is pretty hard to beat. Many 401K plans, at least with larger companies, have some negotiating power. They will often negotiate even lower expense ratios with the financial management companies for funds purchased inside their plans.

Thanks,

Jack

I have no clue why people don’t max out there 401k or tsp or whatever the first time they get a raise. The only people I’ve ever compared retirement account balances have all been coworkers that have the same thinking as I do but from what I gather on a national scale, We’re not normal.


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I have no clue why people don’t max out there 401k or tsp or whatever the first time they get a raise. The only people I’ve ever compared retirement account balances have all been coworkers that have the same thinking as I do but from what I gather on a national scale, We’re not normal.


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You are not. My wife and I have been maxing out for a few years but most people we know do the minimum to get their employer match. My teacher S I L and her lawyer husband do no extra investing. They are planning on their pensions and have 10’s of thousands in a saving account at the local bank. 4 years of maxing out under trump was a substantial amount and after the first year you don’t miss it out of your check. People in their 20’s and 30’s just do as much as you can, it will happen.
 
I have no clue why people don’t max out there 401k or tsp or whatever the first time they get a raise. The only people I’ve ever compared retirement account balances have all been coworkers that have the same thinking as I do but from what I gather on a national scale, We’re not normal.


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You mean you don't use that first raise to lease a cool car for only $X monthly payment. Of course you can afford $x/mo. All the guys your age have one. You need to avoid those used clunkers. Most are unsafe. :emoji_thinking:
 
Did anyone else dump 2020s allotment of retirement money in all at once after the crash? I kept enough to continue to receive my 5% match but over the course of three paychecks dumped it all in.


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God help me I bought more today. This drop is nuts. I am keeping for years so drop is good for me. My first 1k shares are at $23, so that helps.
Nothing nuts about it all. In fact to the contrary it has been about as perfectly normal and predictable as they come.

The SPX recently hit a long term upside target, which was the 3.618 expansion of the 2007-2009 decline. We then entered a correction, which logically saw the NDX names decline the most, as they were priced based on the perception of near zero interest rates into perpetuity, which was never going happen, and became especially evident now that rates are already rising.

When a decline occurs, the minimum retracement of the prior advance that you should expect is .236%. So, from that I could tell you that the NDX would decline to approximately 12200.

Yesterday, we achieved that first target at 12008, and of course once it was met, we reversed hard back to upside.
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Biden is killing it with the gas price increase ... .75 cents in 3 months?
Biden isn't the one setting gas prices. Oil companies realize that cleaner, renewable energy sources are taking a huge bite out of their long-held monopoly on energy. When auto makers are moving to all-electric, or electric with gas back-up vehicles, the handwriting is on the wall. So they're grabbing drivers' money as quickly as possible to pay for their industry overhaul to other energy sources. With the tide turning world-wide to cleaner, greener, renewable energy ............... anyone here want to invest in coal today?? Even the power companies are moving AWAY from coal.

It might be a good thing to have LESS oil & gas going to drivers willing to go electric in this way .............. with China and Russia getting pushy around the world militarily, we might be glad to have those extra oil products for a war that will sooner or later break out. Power-hungry, autocratic, COMMUNIST regimes want to dominate the entire world - and they make no bones about it. Same as always. We'll need those petroleum products to fight the war for jet fuel, tank fuel, etc.
 
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