Stock Market is the bottom in?

[chummer]

Nothing nuts about it all. In fact to the contrary it has been about as perfectly normal and predictable as they come.

The SPX recently hit a long term upside target, which was the 3.618 expansion of the 2007-2009 decline. We then entered a correction, which logically saw the NDX names decline the most, as they were priced based on the perception of near zero interest rates into perpetuity, which was never going happen, and became especially evident now that rates are already rising.

When a decline occurs, the minimum retracement of the prior advance that you should expect is .236%. So, from that I could tell you that the NDX would decline to approximately 12200.

Yesterday, we achieved that first target at 12008, and of course once it was met, we reversed hard back to upside.
View attachment 33779View attachment 33780

So am I to read into this that an individual stock can not buck the trend of the market? I took some serious beatings this week on stocks that crushed earnings and had only good news. I added to almost all my positions Thursday and a couple Friday. It sounds like you are saying the new bottom is in and with the endless printing of money we are poised for another run.

 

[White Birch Farm]

So am I to read into this that an individual stock can not buck the trend of the market? I took some serious beatings this week on stocks that crushed earnings and had only good news. I added to almost all my positions Thursday and a couple Friday. It sounds like you are saying the new bottom is in and with the endless printing of money we are poised for another run.

There is a calculation called Beta. It represents the performance of a stock relative to the market. Most high growth stocks have a Beta greater than 1. That means that if the market falls 1%, they will likely fall more. So, if you are in those stocks, generally speaking your results will be highly correlated to the move in the index (NDX for tech stocks).

Hitting a .236 retracement does not necessarily represent a meaningful bottom it is just a minimum downside, though it does usually represent a low in a strongly bullish trend. A .382 retracement is more common in a market that has had a meaningful roll over. In that case, the market usually retraces to the .236, bounces, then declines to the .382. That forms a large A-B-C (three wave) correction. Technically, we already have three waves down in the NDX so, unless this is just wave A it could be a decent bottom.

ChartSchool | ChartSchool | StockCharts.com

StockCharts.com's comprehensive collection of Financial Analysis articles and explanations

school.stockcharts.com

 

[White Birch Farm]

You may want to read this as well. Investing in the market without knowing the relevance of Elliott waves and Fibonacci’s is like plating food plots without undertstanding the relevance of PH and Fertility levels. Sure you can do it and talk about, but that doesnt mean you are knowledgable about the subject.

ChartSchool | ChartSchool | StockCharts.com

StockCharts.com's comprehensive collection of Financial Analysis articles and explanations

school.stockcharts.com

 

[BuckSutherland]

I bought CCIV (Lucid Motors) this week. Twice. Down a bunch for now, but I'm holding for a LONG time. I would really like a flush all the way down to $15 so I could really load up. The guy that started Lucid was the lead guy on the Tesla model S. Lucid's technology sounds remarkable. I have read they have around 10,000 luxury cars pre ordered now and are being built in AZ. They expect to start shipping this summer. Chatter of a possible partnership with Apple. Just producing luxury vehicle now, but they seem to have a solid plan to produce a price competitive model with Tesla by 2024-2026.

 

[White Birch Farm]

Here you can easily see the A-B-C since the highs in the NDX. Wave A bottomed just after the 22nd. Then we bounced in Wave B until just after March. Since we know Wave C usually equals 1x or 1.618x the length of Wave A, we can then project the minimum expected target for Wave C as soon as the Wave B high is in place. In this case, I represented it with the declining green line, which gave me the 12200 target, which effectively was the low yesterday (12208). Since that level was also a major .236 retracement (and there was also a Fibonacci fan line there) it was a virtual certainty we would see a large bounce as soon as reversed off of it.

 

[yoderjac]

Biden isn't the one setting gas prices. Oil companies realize that cleaner, renewable energy sources are taking a huge bite out of their long-held monopoly on energy. When auto makers are moving to all-electric, or electric with gas back-up vehicles, the handwriting is on the wall. So they're grabbing drivers' money as quickly as possible to pay for their industry overhaul to other energy sources. With the tide turning world-wide to cleaner, greener, renewable energy ............... anyone here want to invest in coal today?? Even the power companies are moving AWAY from coal.

It might be a good thing to have LESS oil & gas going to drivers willing to go electric in this way .............. with China and Russia getting pushy around the world militarily, we might be glad to have those extra oil products for a war that will sooner or later break out. Power-hungry, autocratic, COMMUNIST regimes want to dominate the entire world - and they make no bones about it. Same as always. We'll need those petroleum products to fight the war for jet fuel, tank fuel, etc.

I think it has more to do with the weather that hit Texas.

 

[bwoods11]

Gas prices we’re going up immediately due to Biden EO on pipelines and cutting back drilling on public lands. He’s the main reason, sorry fact.

 

[Bill]

Gas prices we’re going up immediately due to Biden EO on pipelines and cutting back drilling on public lands. He’s the main reason, sorry fact.

SORRY FACT! “is correct.” I bolded it.

+ .30 cents around me within days closing the keystone to virtue signal. Keeps rising ever since.

Oh wait, no fracking on the Delaware watershed. Just a few more cents a gallon.

Trust me, Diesel will be $5.00 in no time again. So if it takes me 18 hours of driving to get to my farm what battery should I use for an electric car?

Guess I’ll wait until Amazon comes up with a coal fired battery charge that takes trucks from California ports to east coast houses.

 

[chummer]

Gas prices we’re going up immediately due to Biden EO on pipelines and cutting back drilling on public lands. He’s the main reason, sorry fact.

So high gas for 8 years of Obama, low gas for Trump, now rapidly going up under Biden. Surely that is just a coincidence. Another republican conspiracy. Presidents don’t effect anything until it fits their narrative then the effect everything. Biden is not effecting gas prices any more than he is effecting the surge of illegals at the border. Oops, bad example, or is it a perfect example of the difference between Trump and the other two idiots. At least there are no more mean tweets.

 

[BuckSutherland]

I bought 50 shares of gamestop this morning. I like the upside with the shift from brick and mortar to online powerhouse. There is still a massive short position betting against it.

 

[John B]

I bought 50 shares of gamestop this morning. I like the upside with the shift from brick and mortar to online powerhouse. There is still a massive short position betting against it.

Beautiful timing if you got in just before the squeeze (if this is actually it)

 

[BuckSutherland]

I bought 25 shares at 150 and 25 at 162 for an average of 156.

 

[OakSeeds]

Live by the sword; die by the sword .... Forbes article says S & P 500 Index fans are weathering the storm better than most.
https://www.forbes.com/sites/naeema...e-us-stock-market-crash-soon/?sh=27fdf09d535b

 

[bwoods11]

I think it has more to do with the weather that hit Texas.

Once the Texas situation is behind us, then back down to $1.90...I will watch for that to see if Texas was the reason.

 

[chummer]

Once the Texas situation is behind us, then back down to $1.90...I will watch for that to see if Texas was the reason.

We are up to 2.87 and still on the winter blend. I am guessing 3.50 by July.

 

[BuckSutherland]

My gamestop position is doing excellent. Up $90/ share the last two days. I tried to get a little more this afternoon at $230 and it never drifted that low. Oh well, been a fun ride. Hope it has a good ending. Lots of upside potential here. I believe Ryan Cohen is up on his position in the company $810 million the last two days.

 

[yoderjac]

Once the Texas situation is behind us, then back down to $1.90...I will watch for that to see if Texas was the reason.

I think Texas is the reason for the sudden spike. I'm not suggesting gas prices won't rise as the rebound unfolds.

 

[yoderjac]

My gamestop position is doing excellent. Up $90/ share the last two days. I tried to get a little more this afternoon at $230 and it never drifted that low. Oh well, been a fun ride. Hope it has a good ending. Lots of upside potential here. I believe Ryan Cohen is up on his position in the company $810 million the last two days.


View attachment 33828

I wouldn't want to be holding the bag when the games are over and rationality returns.

 

[chummer]

My gamestop position is doing excellent. Up $90/ share the last two days. I tried to get a little more this afternoon at $230 and it never drifted that low. Oh well, been a fun ride. Hope it has a good ending. Lots of upside potential here. I believe Ryan Cohen is up on his position in the company $810 million the last two days.


View attachment 33828

What happens when Ryan sells? Can he sell the whole block at once? I get what you are doing but I cant figure out why this guy holds. He has generational wealth on a $2 stock and he continues to hold.

 

[yoderjac]

What happens when Ryan sells? Can he sell the whole block at once? I get what you are doing but I cant figure out why this guy holds. He has generational wealth on a $2 stock and he continues to hold.

Confirmation bias?