Stock Market is the bottom in?

[Foggy47]

I get it but am I Klink. haha. Do the opposite of what I think is a good idea? Pretty solid logic in my opinion.

We'll use Valero as an example. I bought it at 168.66, it's now dropped to 148.49. Now I only bought 1 share so I'm only out $20. Like I said I'm not playing with real money until I understand this better. I know now's probably the time I should be buying it but I didn't. Instead of watching that stock go up and down a couple bucks for months on end, would you cut bait and sell it and try to invest in something else you like and try to recoup that money or does it just depend in how you feel about that stock.

I guess what I'm asking is, is it worth waiting around for a stock you believe in to go up or better to pull it and put it in something else you think is going to go up immediately and maybe buy back into valero later on. More on a day trading/quick hitter level. I understand the longer term investments of just putting money in something you have faith in.

I think that if a stock you like has a good business plan and good products and is well financed (etc etc) then you buy it and it goes down.......time to buy another share or two. Prices seldom move in lock step with our plans. OTOH....if you have owned the stock for a period of a year or two and you have another company that has caught your eye.....sell your loss and invest in something that is moving in the right direction. Easy to say and hard to do.

I currently own maybe 50 or more individual stocks. All but perhaps 3 or 4 are in the black. Some as much as 20x what I paid for them. We may have sold off 20 losers over the past two years. The key is to own multiple companies.....and for me, stick to an allocation plan. Some will always be winners. Others just are not winners at the moment. Sell those......when you have a better idea.

I don't pick my own stocks anymore.....as I do not want to spend my days researching this stuff and making those decisions. I let the pro's do it....but I am not certain their batting average is better (or worse) than mine. Still....they do have a disciplined approach to doing things. Took me a long time to have confidence in them doing the picking....but I am over that now. lol

 

[KY wild]

Go to google and type in ....... Warren Buffet bets hedge fund managers and read some of the articles. Make you look at stock market differently. With that said I like buying individual stocks but only with my mad money

 

[Foggy47]

Go to google and type in ....... Warren Buffet bets hedge fund managers and read some of the articles. Make you look at stock market differently. With that said I like buying individual stocks but only with my mad money

I agree. For most people its far easier to buy a fund that has a good manager and track record.....than to pick individual stocks and manage that basket of stocks. Harder still....is to do it day in and day out and to not fall asleep at the switch.....or get emotional when things are running afoul......or running on sheer madness. lol

 

[Tree Spud]

I just started a new job with a much better outfit than I was at. They've got a strong, and unique benefits package. They still offer a pension. I don't know much at all about pensions, but theirs is 100% company financed. They guarantee a 10% of my wages contribution to the pension each year, 15% if we hit, and apparently the 15% has happened every year anyone can remember.

Because of that, there's no 401k match. One might think I don't need to do any extra on my own. Well, I'm not fully vested until I've been here 6 years. Shit can go to shit quickly if a bad boss gets in the system. So I'm also throwing 15% into a roth 401k, and maxing out the HSA. All in, if I count the pension, I'm at around 34% savings rate on my gross.

There are big things changing with the retirement landscape that I think people aren't thinking about and it makes post-tax retirement savings more important than ever. Low to no tax states have a ridiculous cost of living. Think Florida, Texas, Arizona, Wyoming, South Dakota. There may be low to no income tax, but if an acceptable home in a desirable area is 3-4x the cost of a home in a red area of a blue state, the retirement dollars don't go as far.

There was a 100 acre farm, remodeled home with out buildings and a fish pond that just sold for $480,000 a few miles from my cabin. A guy that's sitting on roth assets in retirement could really go far in a situation like that, if the state is still livable. How far does $480,000 go in the nice areas of the sun belt?

I like your approach to the 401k, 6 years is a long time to vest and so many variables of what can happen between now and then. The faster you can build your net worth and becoming debt free the better.

I don't think that the red states you mention, have the highest cost of living that exceeds the saving on lower taxes. We have property in Florida and they have no personal income tax, no inheritance or sales tax, no taxes on investment or social security income, etc. Our property taxes in Wisconsin are actually higher than in Florida. Your pension fund withdrawals would be tax free along with tax free social security payouts.

Cost of living ranking with lowest to highest ... SD at #4, Wyoming at #20, TX # 29, AZ #32, & FL # 38, The 12 states after FL have the highest cost of living and are all blue states.

To answer your question regarding real estate, it's the same anywhere. The closer you are to water or rec land, the higher the price. The average home price in the US is $495,000. The average home price in Florida is $399,000. Tx is at $338,000, AZ is $333,000, SD at $303,000, and WY at $320,000.

There are other reasons why people & business' are moving to the states you mention. Trustworthy & stabile Gov't, practicle policies and tax approach, reduces/eliminates oppressive regulations, is aggressive in supporting law enforcement, derives a lot of income from tourism which offsets taxes on residents, and the weather and beaches are great. Deer hunting not so much ☹

Some things to ponder

 

[SD51555]

I like your approach to the 401k, 6 years is a long time to vest and so many variables of what can happen between now and then. The faster you can build your net worth and becoming debt free the better.

I don't think that the red states you mention, have the highest cost of living that exceeds the saving on lower taxes. We have property in Florida and they have no personal income tax, no inheritance or sales tax, no taxes on investment or social security income, etc. Our property taxes in Wisconsin are actually higher than in Florida. Your pension fund withdrawals would be tax free along with tax free social security payouts.

Cost of living ranking with lowest to highest ... SD at #4, Wyoming at #20, TX # 29, AZ #32, & FL # 38, The 12 states after FL have the highest cost of living and are all blue states.

To answer your question regarding real estate, it's the same anywhere. The closer you are to water or rec land, the higher the price. The average home price in the US is $495,000. The average home price in Florida is $399,000. Tx is at $338,000, AZ is $333,000, SD at $303,000, and WY at $320,000.

There are other reasons why people & business' are moving to the states you mention. Trustworthy & stabile Gov't, practice policies and tax approach, reduces/eliminates oppressive regulations, is aggressive in supporting law enforcement, derives a lot of income from tourism which offsets taxes on residents, and the weather and beaches are great. Deer hunting not so much ☹

Some things to ponder

Amenities definitely drives it. I don't know how those averages are figured. Up in the Dakotas, you can move to BFE nowheresville and probably almost pay cash for a house, but you can be 2+ hours from a stoplight and someone that knows how to do an emergency bypass. The metro cities out here are ridiculous. This is what's common in Fargo now. $335,000 for practically nothing and lots of stairs. Sioux Falls, Rapid City, and Bismarck are all the same way.

**Well shit, the link is blocked for some reason.

 

[jsasker007]

working now

 

[jsasker007]

Tellurian is dropping pretty good today. If it drops under 70 cents I'm loading up again.

 

[Brian662]

After living in a rural setting for 11 years, there is no way I can go back to living in suburbia.

Can't see myself living somewhere without hunting either.

I'll be in the upper Midwest for the rest of my days. For me in order of retirement states:
1. SD
2. WI
3. MN

 

[jsasker007]

After living in a rural setting for 11 years, there is no way I can go back to living in suburbia.

Can't see myself living somewhere without hunting either.

I'll be in the upper Midwest for the rest of my days. For me in order of retirement states:
1. SD
2. WI
3. MN

I feel that if you can hear your neighbors they are still too close.

 

[bwoods11]

Not 100 acre far but I’m standing in a brand new house on 5 acres one hour from Nashville in a town with everything you could need for $445k in a state with no income taxes and no sub zero temps. It’s doable if you don’t have to live in one of the hot counties.

I love the area I’m in (Lake country of Minnesota). However, I could definitely be a resident of another state and just keep my lake home.

Iowa, South Dakota, Florida… not sure. It’s on the agenda . I can save a lot on state taxes. Iowa just passed a new law where cash rent and IRA income will be income tax free (state taxes). They have a lot of people moving to the state now, and fewer retired farmers leaving for other states (smart move)!

 

[Howboutthemdawgs]

I love the area I’m in (Lake country of Minnesota). However, I could definitely be a resident of another state and just keep my lake home.

Iowa, South Dakota, Florida… not sure. It’s on the agenda . I can save a lot on state taxes. Iowa just passed a new law where cash rent and IRA income will be income tax free (state taxes). They have a lot of people moving to the state now, and fewer retired farmers leaving for other states (smart move)!

It’s a double edged sword. These last great places, like an Iowa and the Dakotas are going to be too attractive to keep people out and next thing you know they get overpopulated and run afoul with bad policies.

 

[Foggy47]

I love the area I’m in (Lake country of Minnesota). However, I could definitely be a resident of another state and just keep my lake home.

Iowa, South Dakota, Florida… not sure. It’s on the agenda . I can save a lot on state taxes. Iowa just passed a new law where cash rent and IRA income will be income tax free (state taxes). They have a lot of people moving to the state now, and fewer retired farmers leaving for other states (smart move)!

I have a home on nice lake in MN.....and a home in AZ. Actually we are now residents of AZ. Both places have pro's and con's. But if our family was not here in MN.....we would not keep a place here. We'd likely own a place up in the mountains for a summer place.....like Pinetop AZ.....instead of MN. Having said that....many folks are satisfied with even the desert heat in the summers.....they simply adapt to a few changes.

Our home in AZ is a FAR cheaper place to own and maintain than MN. Insurance costs are crazy cheaper: no tornados, hail, ice, hurricanes and such. I think our insurance is 10x cheaper there than here. Real estate taxes are lower, so is HVAC. No snow tires and cars last a long time in the desert. Taxes are far less.....and estate taxes (when you pass) are great for heirs. MN?....not so much.

Almost everyone living in OZ is from the midwest originally......and most will never move back. Winter's are too brutal once you experience the south. And...when you get older (my age) you start to worry that a slip on the ice could put you in "the home" for the rest of your life. It's far easier to stay engaged in the outdoors and recreational stuff in OZ than in MN.....IMO. Especially if your retired.

The sunbelt has allot to offer......and hunting is a big thing with folks too....it's just "western" hunting instead of woodland hunting. If you dont like the desert......live near the 4 corners area....and you can hunt, ski, bike, hike, boat, fish, and much more. Lots of other choices depending on your passion. I'd bet most sunbelt states are cheaper places to be than MN or WI.

 

[Bowsnbucks]

Essentially that's what a 401k is over the course of one's career.

Yes it is. That method can also be used outside of a 401-k as well - maybe for a down-payment on a home. It worked for my wife and me.

 

[Bowsnbucks]

Through our work plan you get a 3% match so we encourage everyone to at least do 3%. Of course some do not and they are passing up free money by not doing it.

Exactly. If any company matches 3%, 4%, or 5% - you're really getting a 100% return on your investment right off the bat. Wife and I maxed out on everything possible, and still invested more beside our work retirement plans. Started reading several financial / investment magazines while a senior in HS. While waiting my turn in a barber shop years ago, I picked up a magazine called MONEY instead of Field & Stream. Serendipity. Best lucky move I've made financially. Been reading / studying investing ever since.

Sounds like you're on a good roll, jsasker007!!

 

[Bowsnbucks]

I think that if a stock you like has a good business plan and good products and is well financed (etc etc) then you buy it and it goes down.......time to buy another share or two. Prices seldom move in lock step with our plans. OTOH....if you have owned the stock for a period of a year or two and you have another company that has caught your eye.....sell your loss and invest in something that is moving in the right direction. Easy to say and hard to do.

I currently own maybe 50 or more individual stocks. All but perhaps 3 or 4 are in the black. Some as much as 20x what I paid for them. We may have sold off 20 losers over the past two years. The key is to own multiple companies.....and for me, stick to an allocation plan. Some will always be winners. Others just are not winners at the moment. Sell those......when you have a better idea.

I don't pick my own stocks anymore.....as I do not want to spend my days researching this stuff and making those decisions. I let the pro's do it....but I am not certain their batting average is better (or worse) than mine. Still....they do have a disciplined approach to doing things. Took me a long time to have confidence in them doing the picking....but I am over that now. lol

Wife and I have used mutual funds all our lives. Numerous financial pros & scholars (Nobel winners, etc.) have said the most efficient way to own stocks is through mutual funds. Pick ones with low expense ratio's, no front-end or back-end loads, no 12b-1 fees, etc. Many index funds from the likes of Vanguard, Fidelity, Schwab, T. Rowe Price, Blackrock / i-shares have such index funds. A fund with an expense ratio of .04% costs you 40 cents a year for every $1000 invested. Darn near free. $10,000 invested = $4 per year for pro management / stock-picking. $100,000 = $40 per year. Sit back and reap.

Active fund management costs more - but can be worth it if you pick the right funds.

 

[jsasker007]

TELL dropped below 70 cents so I just had to buy more. If it keeps dropping I'll keep buying.

 

[bwoods11]

Sometimes you just have to look across the street for a good investment! Up 71% in the past year .

 

[SD51555]

I watched the modern marvels on convenience stores. They've got a staggering percentage of the average american's discretionary income. I can't recall the number, but I remember being blown away at how much income people plow into those stores.

 

[T-Max]

Sometimes you just have to look across the street for a good investment! Up 71% in the past year .View attachment 65329View attachment 65330

I had a Finance Professor in 2010 tell the whole class to buy Casey’s. We were all poor, so I am sure nobody did, but I can’t imagine how rich we’d be.


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[Tree Spud]

Sometimes you just have to look across the street for a good investment! Up 71% in the past year .View attachment 65329View attachment 65330

Everyone looking for that next new shinny object to discover a home run magic investment. When if you had invested in real estate (except commercial downtown office) the 3-4 years, you would have seen the same growth as shown above. Add in the inflation factor and real estate has always done well in inflationary times. Sometimes you just have to look at simple non-flashy stuff.