Stock Market is the bottom in?

[SD51555]

Question for all of you. How do you decide when to get out of something or does it just depend on the stock? I'm only playing with nickels and dimes with this until I figure it out a little better so I'm more tempted just to hold on to stuff and ride it out because worst case I might be out $50. I bought valero and CVI a while back before they went down. I'm trying to decide whether to ride it out and see if they bounce back or bail and buy something else. They've both kind of been stagnant for a while.

I will only sell for a few reasons:

Imminent macroeconomic doom, something better comes along, or something falls apart. I try to stay in things that are recession and inflation resistant. I have no input on penny stocks or big tech. None of the fundamentals make any sense to me, so it’s just a back alley dice game far as I’m concerned.

Few things are absolutely certain. They are inflation, war, scarcity, and sickness. I missed the boat in war stocks. So when the outlook is murky, stick with those that have the levers of power.


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[jsasker007]

Won't argue about the penny stocks. Higher risk for sure. Once in a while one actually pays off but it's probably only about 10% of the time. Got a lot riding on NVDA now and waiting to pick up more CMG before it splits 1 for 50 at the end of the month.

 

[KY wild]

Jsasker is a soothsayer! TELL is up 92% since he gave us the tip. Wow you are the man

NVDA has been crazy great

I can't get out of either although I should

 

[jsasker007]

Jsasker is a soothsayer! TELL is up 92% since he gave us the tip. Wow you are the man

NVDA has been crazy great

I can't get out of either although I should

It's more like the blind squirrel acorn thing. Remember bears make money, bulls make money but pigs get slaughtered.

 

[jsasker007]

Not a bad idea if you are up enough on a stock where you can sell some to get your initial investment back and still have some stock you are then playing with house money and won't lose anything.

 

[Bowsnbucks]

I've not tried to time the market over the years, but instead dollar-cost-averaged into funds. Wife and I rode out any downturns - not selling - and rode the upswings to bigger gains. Somebody decades ago figured out that dollar-cost-averaging is a way of forcing you to "buy on sale." The idea is that you invest the same amount on a regular basis - say, $100 from every paycheck. You do that without fail, all the time, and you end up buying more shares when the prices are lower - less shares when the prices are higher. (Markets & share prices go up & down daily. D-C-A is an automatic way to "buy on sale.") Then reinvest the dividends & interest to buy more shares - automatically.

This is best started while one is young, with the idea of having a long-term view of building wealth. Time in the market is your friend. Think of a snowball (your invested money) rolling down a hill (time). The longer the hill (time) the more "snow" (accrued shares / dividends / interest) sticks to it. This takes the "crap-shoot" out of the picture. D-C-A also lowers your average cost-per-share.

Adjust your portfolio as you age and your risk tolerance changes - likely getting lower as one nears retirement.

 

[Brian662]

I've not tried to time the market over the years, but instead dollar-cost-averaged into funds. Wife and I rode out any downturns - not selling - and rode the upswings to bigger gains. Somebody decades ago figured out that dollar-cost-averaging is a way of forcing you to "buy on sale." The idea is that you invest the same amount on a regular basis - say, $100 from every paycheck. You do that without fail, all the time, and you end up buying more shares when the prices are lower - less shares when the prices are higher. (Markets & share prices go up & down daily. D-C-A is an automatic way to "buy on sale.") Then reinvest the dividends & interest to buy more shares - automatically.

This is best started while one is young, with the idea of having a long-term view of building wealth. Time in the market is your friend. Think of a snowball (your invested money) rolling down a hill (time). The longer the hill (time) the more "snow" (accrued shares / dividends / interest) sticks to it. This takes the "crap-shoot" out of the picture. D-C-A also lowers your average cost-per-share.

Adjust your portfolio as you age and your risk tolerance changes - likely getting lower as one nears retirement.

Essentially that's what a 401k is over the course of one's career.

 

[jsasker007]

I've not tried to time the market over the years, but instead dollar-cost-averaged into funds. Wife and I rode out any downturns - not selling - and rode the upswings to bigger gains. Somebody decades ago figured out that dollar-cost-averaging is a way of forcing you to "buy on sale." The idea is that you invest the same amount on a regular basis - say, $100 from every paycheck. You do that without fail, all the time, and you end up buying more shares when the prices are lower - less shares when the prices are higher. (Markets & share prices go up & down daily. D-C-A is an automatic way to "buy on sale.") Then reinvest the dividends & interest to buy more shares - automatically.

This is best started while one is young, with the idea of having a long-term view of building wealth. Time in the market is your friend. Think of a snowball (your invested money) rolling down a hill (time). The longer the hill (time) the more "snow" (accrued shares / dividends / interest) sticks to it. This takes the "crap-shoot" out of the picture. D-C-A also lowers your average cost-per-share.

Adjust your portfolio as you age and your risk tolerance changes - likely getting lower as one nears retirement.

Been doing that since age 22. Have since been doing my own investing on the side. I am seeing better returns so far on my own investing versus the cookie cutter portfolio that Franklin Templeton has been giving me. I'm diversified on a few different investing platforms as well. Should be some money somewhere for me when it comes time. Hopefully

 

[jsasker007]

Through our work plan you get a 3% match so we encourage everyone to at least do 3%. Of course some do not and they are passing up free money by not doing it.

 

[PatinPA]

Mine is aside from my 401K. I just invested a small amount to learn how it works. Even that I put most of in funds I intend to hold on to longer term. QQQ, VOO, VTI. The rest I use to try to hit it big, lol. Fidelity lets me buy partial so I bought a fraction of Chipoltle. I'm interested to find out if I'm going to end up with full stocks after the split or how that will work.

 

[Tree Spud]

My wife and I have maxed our 401k's last 35+ years. When matching is 4-5%, it was a no brainer, even 3% is a good deal. We have enough $$ there now, that we could retire and live well on that alone. The good thing is that the 401k is only a piece of pie in the portfolio. Certainly diversifying by adding stocks, bonds, real estate, etc. is also important.

I am not a day trader type, I am slow and steady wins the race. Hats off to you who can follow and know enough to add value.

One of the good things about maxing your 401k, it is $$ you get taken out of your check before you can spend it on other things. The other good move I made early on was depositing money direct into a credit union account rom my checkbook with no checkbook or atm card. This allowed us to save (before I got the money) direct from my paycheck. We were able to pay cash for major purchases like automobiles. We hang onto our vehicles for 8-9 years.

The old saying that you need to pay yourself first, or you will always find a way to spend what you get.

 

[SD51555]

I just started a new job with a much better outfit than I was at. They've got a strong, and unique benefits package. They still offer a pension. I don't know much at all about pensions, but theirs is 100% company financed. They guarantee a 10% of my wages contribution to the pension each year, 15% if we hit, and apparently the 15% has happened every year anyone can remember.

Because of that, there's no 401k match. One might think I don't need to do any extra on my own. Well, I'm not fully vested until I've been here 6 years. Shit can go to shit quickly if a bad boss gets in the system. So I'm also throwing 15% into a roth 401k, and maxing out the HSA. All in, if I count the pension, I'm at around 34% savings rate on my gross.

There are big things changing with the retirement landscape that I think people aren't thinking about and it makes post-tax retirement savings more important than ever. Low to no tax states have a ridiculous cost of living. Think Florida, Texas, Arizona, Wyoming, South Dakota. There may be low to no income tax, but if an acceptable home in a desirable area is 3-4x the cost of a home in a red area of a blue state, the retirement dollars don't go as far.

There was a 100 acre farm, remodeled home with out buildings and a fish pond that just sold for $480,000 a few miles from my cabin. A guy that's sitting on roth assets in retirement could really go far in a situation like that, if the state is still livable. How far does $480,000 go in the nice areas of the sun belt?

 

[Howboutthemdawgs]

I just started a new job with a much better outfit than I was at. They've got a strong, and unique benefits package. They still offer a pension. I don't know much at all about pensions, but theirs is 100% company financed. They guarantee a 10% of my wages contribution to the pension each year, 15% if we hit, and apparently the 15% has happened every year anyone can remember.

Because of that, there's no 401k match. One might think I don't need to do any extra on my own. Well, I'm not fully vested until I've been here 6 years. Shit can go to shit quickly if a bad boss gets in the system. So I'm also throwing 15% into a roth 401k, and maxing out the HSA. All in, if I count the pension, I'm at around 34% savings rate on my gross.

There are big things changing with the retirement landscape that I think people aren't thinking about and it makes post-tax retirement savings more important than ever. Low to no tax states have a ridiculous cost of living. Think Florida, Texas, Arizona, Wyoming, South Dakota. There may be low to no income tax, but if an acceptable home in a desirable area is 3-4x the cost of a home in a red area of a blue state, the retirement dollars don't go as far.

There was a 100 acre farm, remodeled home with out buildings and a fish pond that just sold for $480,000 a few miles from my cabin. A guy that's sitting on roth assets in retirement could really go far in a situation like that, if the state is still livable. How far does $480,000 go in the nice areas of the sun belt?

Not 100 acre far but I’m standing in a brand new house on 5 acres one hour from Nashville in a town with everything you could need for $445k in a state with no income taxes and no sub zero temps. It’s doable if you don’t have to live in one of the hot counties.

 

[Howboutthemdawgs]

Oh and here’s my governor….

 

[SD51555]

Not 100 acre far but I’m standing in a brand new house on 5 acres one hour from Nashville in a town with everything you could need for $445k in a state with no income taxes and no sub zero temps. It’s doable if you don’t have to live in one of the hot counties.

Wow, that's a rule breaker. Nice work man.

 

[Howboutthemdawgs]

Wow, that's a rule breaker. Nice work man.

Thanks. It’s not mine just building it but they are out there. I agree with a lot of your points though.

 

[Native Hunter]

Question for all of you. How do you decide when to get out of something or does it just depend on the stock? I'm only playing with nickels and dimes with this until I figure it out a little better so I'm more tempted just to hold on to stuff and ride it out because worst case I might be out $50. I bought valero and CVI a while back before they went down. I'm trying to decide whether to ride it out and see if they bounce back or bail and buy something else. They've both kind of been stagnant for a while.

For getting in and out, I use the Hogan's Heroes method. When Klink told Hogan anything, Hogan knew to do the opposite of what he told him. In one episode there was a bomb ready to go off and two wires that could be cut. One of them disarmed the bomb and the other detonated it. Hogan cut the opposite wire that Klink told him to cut, and they lived.

 

[PatinPA]

For getting in and out, I use the Hogan's Heroes method. When Klink told Hogan anything, Hogan knew to do the opposite of what he told him. In one episode there was a bomb ready to go off and two wires that could be cut. One of them disarmed the bomb and the other detonated it. Hogan cut the opposite wire that Klink told him to cut, and they lived.

I get it but am I Klink. haha. Do the opposite of what I think is a good idea? Pretty solid logic in my opinion.

We'll use Valero as an example. I bought it at 168.66, it's now dropped to 148.49. Now I only bought 1 share so I'm only out $20. Like I said I'm not playing with real money until I understand this better. I know now's probably the time I should be buying it but I didn't. Instead of watching that stock go up and down a couple bucks for months on end, would you cut bait and sell it and try to invest in something else you like and try to recoup that money or does it just depend in how you feel about that stock.

I guess what I'm asking is, is it worth waiting around for a stock you believe in to go up or better to pull it and put it in something else you think is going to go up immediately and maybe buy back into valero later on. More on a day trading/quick hitter level. I understand the longer term investments of just putting money in something you have faith in.

 

[Native Hunter]

I get it but am I Klink. haha. Do the opposite of what I think is a good idea? Pretty solid logic in my opinion.

We'll use Valero as an example. I bought it at 168.66, it's now dropped to 148.49. Now I only bought 1 share so I'm only out $20. Like I said I'm not playing with real money until I understand this better. I know now's probably the time I should be buying it but I didn't. Instead of watching that stock go up and down a couple bucks for months on end, would you cut bait and sell it and try to invest in something else you like and try to recoup that money or does it just depend in how you feel about that stock.

I guess what I'm asking is, is it worth waiting around for a stock you believe in to go up or better to pull it and put it in something else you think is going to go up immediately and maybe buy back into valero later on. More on a day trading/quick hitter level. I understand the longer term investments of just putting money in something you have faith in.

I've made some bad choices too, and I think everyone has. It's all about emotion and what's hot at the time. I don't think many people are very good at predicting the stock market.

 

[jsasker007]

I buy a couple here a couple there just to watch and see what it does for a couple of months to try and find a pattern. Stocks that jump up and down on a regular basis can make you money faster but it's all just a guessing game with volatile stocks. Safer bets are the tried and true big name blue chip stocks that have several years of steady performance. I like dividend stocks too. Have a couple that pay out monthly dividends.