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Stock Market is the bottom in?

My biggest worry for the coming generations is just how much work will there actually be for them to make a living and are we moving more and more towards a corprate owned housing market where most folks can’t even afford to buy a home. We maybe in a housing bubble currently or not idk my crystal ball is broken but at current housing prices many folks are already priced out of the market is this going to become more and more the norm? Our current housing market is odd we are in a housing shortage because of the 2008 crash, home contruction hasn’t reached pre 08 levels and we have imported millions of illegals over the southern boarder. Our birth rates are declining in this country so simply from an economy growth rate standpoint the illegals are probably a good thing. Don’t misinterpret this to mean I like it or agree with it. But the fact that we are importing illegals and already in a housing shortage makes me wonder if this really is a housing bubble that’s going to burst dramatically or simply be a slowdown.
 
Bszweda said:
I'm going to keep DCA into the market for retirement, and hope for the best .
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I think you'll be glad you're going the DCA route on a regular basis. That's what we've done for 40 years. I learned about DCA in my senior year of high school. It's a formula some math guy came up with years ago - forces you to "buy on sale" in a way. It's worked really well for us. We still do it, along with reinvesting our divs and interest. I'm glad I started years ago, even before I met my wife.
 
b116757 said:
My biggest worry for the coming generations is just how much work will there actually be for them to make a living and are we moving more and more towards a corprate owned housing market where most folks can’t even afford to buy a home. We maybe in a housing bubble currently or not idk my crystal ball is broken but at current housing prices many folks are already priced out of the market is this going to become more and more the norm? Our current housing market is odd we are in a housing shortage because of the 2008 crash, home contruction hasn’t reached pre 08 levels and we have imported millions of illegals over the southern boarder. Our birth rates are declining in this country so simply from an economy growth rate standpoint the illegals are probably a good thing. Don’t misinterpret this to mean I like it or agree with it. But the fact that we are importing illegals and already in a housing shortage makes me wonder if this really is a housing bubble that’s going to burst dramatically or simply be a slowdown.
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Corporate housing, corporate farming, corporate (non-AG) land ownership ........... yep - it's a worry. Work for our kids / grandkids?? With the millions of jobs still to be lost to automation & AI, those jobs can be eliminated by the stroke of a pen / phone call - much quicker than trying to re-train that many folks for "other" jobs that will likely pay less. (You know .......... U.S. workers are paid WAY TOO MUCH ALREADY. They need to make less ........ and the U.S Chamber of Commerce is working diligently 24/7 - 365 to make that very thing happen.)

The U.S. was built up by immigrants from a number of countries - that's a FACT. Our parents, grandparents & great grandparents came mainly from European countries, and some from Asian countries. So we're all from immigration of our ancestors. Problem is - both sides of politics have kicked the can down the road for decades when it comes to a COMPREHENSIVE immigration policy. Both sides - for their own selfish reasons - haven't stepped up to formulate an immigration policy that serves the needs of the U.S. - or any potential immigrants / asylum seekers. Many of those who come here from south of our border are seeking safety from political violence and possible imprisonment or even being killed for not falling in behind an authoritarian dictator in their home country. Foot-dragging for years ...... and here we are.
 
I read somewhere that without Hispanic immigration, and their.growing families.

The U.S. would be a lot closer to a predominately muslin nation

Constelation…..aka Modelo….my stock pick o the quarter.
 
^ Appears that many folks will be replaced by pixels(AI of many forms) and robotics.

I suppose we gotta get used to living with illusions and smoke and mirrors. I think I will be identifying as a dinosaur.
 
SD51555 said:
This popped up a couple days ago.
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My wife and I saw a commercial (I believe for Maybelline) where 2 women show up for mascara. One SURE looks like AI-generated, while the other looks real.
 
I have been doing well with GTN - they just committed to handling more sports. egy - tracks oil and my guy says oil is going to 100. ARC documents. GE, Costco and Coke have done well for me this year. As has coinbase. (I sold my initial investment last week so just have the profit remaining, but that was up 145% for me!
 
The AI generated women are doing the real McCoy no favors setting inrealistic expectations in young men’s heads for beauty not that it hadn’t already been happening for the last 60 years but this is even a bit worse. The older I get the more I think finding a women that’s not lazy or bat shit crazy or both is way more important looks. The hot crazy matrix comes to mind.
 
b116757 said:
The AI generated women are doing the real McCoy no favors setting inrealistic expectations in young men’s heads for beauty not that it hadn’t already been happening for the last 60 years but this is even a bit worse. The older I get the more I think finding a women that’s not lazy or bat shit crazy or both is way more important looks. The hot crazy matrix comes to mind.
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which is a fundamental postulate and eternal verity

bill
 
Serious question. Short term bonds are now outyielding dividend stocks by a long shot. Anyone have a compelling reason to stick with stocks in this environment? I have 1, but I'd like to hear if anyone else has an idea. I'm still sitting on about a third of my chips in short term bonds. If you pull the big 7 darpa tech stocks out of the S&P 500, I think 3 month treasuries are beating the S&P 500 for the year, and kicking out about 3x more income.
 
SD51555 said:
Serious question. Short term bonds are now outyielding dividend stocks by a long shot. Anyone have a compelling reason to stick with stocks in this environment? I have 1, but I'd like to hear if anyone else has an idea. I'm still sitting on about a third of my chips in short term bonds. If you pull the big 7 darpa tech stocks out of the S&P 500, I think 3 month treasuries are beating the S&P 500 for the year, and kicking out about 3x more income.
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I don’t trade in and out of stocks very often . Mostly buy and hold. I’m trying to buy stocks that dip ..

Like General Mills, SiriusXM, CVI Energy & UAN Fertilizer. Most of my buys are looking at longer term .
 
SD51555 said:
Serious question. Short term bonds are now outyielding dividend stocks by a long shot. Anyone have a compelling reason to stick with stocks in this environment? I have 1, but I'd like to hear if anyone else has an idea. I'm still sitting on about a third of my chips in short term bonds. If you pull the big 7 darpa tech stocks out of the S&P 500, I think 3 month treasuries are beating the S&P 500 for the year, and kicking out about 3x more income.
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Diversification among various investments is the key to making for a less bumpy ride over the years. Right now we have a sizeable position in a money market fund that's throwing off good cash, without the NAV price fluctuations. But we do not move out of stocks - ever. Couple index funds (both stock & bond funds) at LOW expense ratios, couple actively-managed funds at LOW expenses. A good, short-term, government bond fund will yield a good interest rate now, or a short-term investment grade bond fund will too. We don't buy individual issues - too much hassle & headache for us to mess with.
 
The USFR monthly dividend has been announced. Little disappointed it didn't go up again. Not surprised though. The 3-mo has been stuck at 5.44% for a while. Powell is sure taking his sweet time turning up the heat. This payout pencils to a 5.37% yield.

1692977090169.png
 
My twinkies went higher,higher,higher. ( Hostess)

guess they B 4 sale!
 
SD51555 said:
Serious question. Short term bonds are now outyielding dividend stocks by a long shot. Anyone have a compelling reason to stick with stocks in this environment? I have 1, but I'd like to hear if anyone else has an idea. I'm still sitting on about a third of my chips in short term bonds. If you pull the big 7 darpa tech stocks out of the S&P 500, I think 3 month treasuries are beating the S&P 500 for the year, and kicking out about 3x more income.
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High dividend paying stocks are normally "mature" stocks and / or industries that have the serious growth potential run out of them. GROWTH is the element missing in holding stocks over bonds. You will not outperform by holding bonds or high dividend stocks. Those are for old guys like me who want to preserve what we got. A young buck like you needs to have more risk/reward stocks with growth potential.......at least for a higher portion of your investments. My 2 centz.

Edit: I'd (almost) be embarrassed by the great returns I've gotten from some of the big tech companies and health care companies over the past decade or two. Big name companies that are in the right place and the right time. We stay diversified and follow a strict allocation plan and sell down outsized gainers to mitigate unnecessary risk.....but had we let some of those stocks run (as a younger guy may do) OMG.
 
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It makes all the sense in the world to push rates up higher and higher until the debt class is choked out, there will only be the bigs there to buy these homes that are massively underwater with mortgage rates where they are. Too bad we don't do anti-trust in America any longer.
 
SD51555 said:
It makes all the sense in the world to push rates up higher and higher until the debt class is choked out, there will only be the bigs there to buy these homes that are massively underwater with mortgage rates where they are. Too bad we don't do anti-trust in America any longer.
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Lots of small homes being built in OZ. These homes may only be 1200 sq feet or so. Very basic w/ 2 BR, 1 Bath, Kitchen / Dining. Outside parking and a community pool and playground. These small homes are just a few feet apart. Hardly any outdoor space. They do not sell these home....nor do they want to. They want to lease them and the prices float with the ever increasing market cost for housing.

In our situation.....where the community is growing REALLY FAST.....we are glad to see these homes and all the massive condo's and apartments too. Many 1000's of these homes. It's where all the workers are living.....and we need the workers too. Not too sure how many of the folks renting these homes could afford to buy a home. Strange times.
 
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