Stock Market is the bottom in?

[Foggy47]

I saw a lot of automation in the last 3 or 4 years before I retired. Automation alone won't save a company. The automation has to actually work, mechanically and financially. I've seen some jobs automated and the automation didn't get the job done correctly and then taken out and the job was put back to a manual task performed by people. I've also seen jobs that were automated and could get the tasks completed perfectly but production was reduced by 60%. In both those examples the cost of automating was wasted. And actually cost the company money to accomplish nothing. If the employees see this happen too many times they lose faith in management.

The labor that didn't want to see automation seemed to be older or uncaring workers. The older employees didn't want to learn how to deal with robot controllers or HMI's. The uncaring workers were young enough and smart enough but just didn't care. Most were turds that should have been gotten rid of anyway. The workers that did embrace the automation and learned it ended up in pretty nice jobs that paid a decent wage.

I think the future is in designing, installing and repairing automation. It's here to stay whether we want it or not.

It's now about 15 years since I sold my biz....and somewhat longer when I would visit the factory floor of various machine and metal companies. Last summer I toured a few plants that are highly automated. Wow. The amount of work being done by a small work force is amazing. I used to frequent some plastic molders......and their ability to run "in the dark" via automation is amazing. I'm sure that comes at a price.....but so do human bodies. 24/7/365 with no holidays, or overtime pay , complaints or maternity benefits sure could pay for allot of automation.

 

[SD51555]

We are due for a drop. The outlook is bleak. Hopefully the dividend stocks can be bought at a discount! The yield will be much better overall.

I can't believe there hasn't been more of an exodus out of stocks to short term bonds. Maybe there is no way to get a firm risk free yield on short term bonds in a mutual fund or an index because of fees? As of this morning, I've moved 23% to short term bonds across the 2, 3, and 6 month treasuries. Still long 77%. If this thing goes the way I think it's gonna go, I'll just sit off to the side and wait for the big dirty to begin. If it takes a while, at least I'm getting paid almost 5% across the board on all those bonds. Beats what I did in 2022 and just sat in cash earning nothing for 8 months.

 

[Foggy47]

I can't believe there hasn't been more of an exodus out of stocks to short term bonds. Maybe there is no way to get a firm risk free yield on short term bonds in a mutual fund or an index because of fees? As of this morning, I've moved 23% to short term bonds across the 2, 3, and 6 month treasuries. Still long 77%. If this thing goes the way I think it's gonna go, I'll just sit off to the side and wait for the big dirty to begin. If it takes a while, at least I'm getting paid almost 5% across the board on all those bonds. Beats what I did in 2022 and just sat in cash earning nothing for 8 months.

If I were to sell my stock holdings......in order to invest short term for a 5% return.......it would trigger huge capitol gains taxes. This would wipe out any income from those bonds several times over. This is why many 'investors" hold stocks and often ride them up and down the normal price waves. Trying to be "all in" or "all out" on every bob and weave is folly. Instead, many investors stick to an allocation plan and make small changes in that allocation as a result of market activities. Sometimes that stategy will cost some in performance.....but so too would you lose tax effiency and be prone to whip-saw events of the market.

I rest my case.

 

[SD51555]

If I were to sell my stock holdings......in order to invest short term for a 5% return.......it would trigger huge capitol gains taxes. This would wipe out any income from those bonds several times over. This is why many 'investors" hold stocks and often ride them up and down the normal price waves. Trying to be "all in" or "all out" on every bob and weave is folly. Instead, many investors stick to an allocation plan and make small changes in that allocation as a result of market activities. Sometimes that stategy will cost some in performance.....but so too would you lose tax effiency and be prone to whip-saw events of the market.

I rest my case.

Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk

 

[jsasker007]

Thank God this inflation is just transitory. Otherwise we could be in some trouble---WHEW!

 

[Hoytvectrix]

Thank God this inflation is just transitory. Otherwise we could be in some trouble---WHEW!

I remember in 2018 and 19 when that term was first being thrown around (at least that I noticed). Everything you read at the time seemed to doubt Yellen and Powel's assessment. We just had to keep the rates buried to keep that engine running.

 

[Bowsnbucks]

Mr. Reagan assured us that us little folks would be o.k. when the 1%'s made lots of money and some of it "trickled down" to us.

What "trickled down" to us avg. folks was one of 2 colors - yellow or brown. Since all the offshoring that started in the 1980's - how have everyone's lives gotten much better?? How yummy has your "trickle" been??? The very phrase "trickle down economics" is an INSULT to any thinking American worker - white or blue collar. We avg. workers get the "scraps" that are left after the 1% take their train-load of money out of the economic "pie." Are your kids going to be CEO's of big companies?? If that's not likely ............ do we leave them a "trickle," like the politicians have enacted???

Without saying it in actual words - corporate "America" told American workers that, " You've been paid way too much for years. So we're going to move our plants offshore to where workers are just happy to get their meals, and they don't get "benefits" either. No retirement plans, no Social Security, no Medicare, no "sick days", no 401-k's, and we'll work them 7 days a week. No environmental laws to speak of either. So we've turned the whole world into our personal cheap labor market, where all workers will have to "compete" against each other. Whoever will work the cheapest - that's where we'll set up our factories." This is what corporate "America" has said to American workers - without saying the words. We outdoors guys look for "sign", "tracks", "evidence" - right?? What evidence and "signs" do we REALLY see concerning our national security, our (and our kids' / grandkids') economic future???

And then other "developed countries" followed suit & moved their factories to cheap labor countries - which happen to be in regions of the world where enemy states like China and Russia have greater influence. How smart is that for "free democracies" to place things vital to our collective national securities in such unsafe places??? Our own U.S. military Joint Chiefs of Staff warned against that decades ago - but were ignored. Now we worry about China invading Taiwan and taking over the cutting-edge chip-making facilities there. WE NEED THOSE CHIPS FOR OUR DEFENSE!!!!!

Hooray for the red, white & blue???? Lots of talk about "patriots" anymore. But we Americans voted for the very people who enacted these laws making it quick & easy to move our "American" factories overseas. Do some homework and look to SEVERAL sources - not one or two - to see who signed all those free-trade ( "ultra-cheap labor" ) agreements that moved American jobs to China, Indonesia, Mexico, Bangladesh, India, Pakistan, Malaysia, Singapore, Honduras, Myanmar, Thailand, Viet Nam, Panama, Dominican Republic, Peru .......... are you feeling patriotic yet??? If you're old enough to remember - the American unions warned HEAVILY about what would happen to American jobs if those "free trade" agreements went into effect. American workers warned other American workers, and there was a push to get folks to "buy American" - but those union folks were lambasted as "whiners." Those days of just getting up every day, grabbing your lunch box, and showing up every day at work to do your job with pride, skill, and loyalty are GONE. Fear and trepidation envelope everyone - wondering IF you'll have a job tomorrow. What about our kids & grandkids' futures??? HOW PATRIOTIC ARE WE ......... REALLY???

BTW - I'm not bashing on mom & pop operations or 1 - 4 man operations that started from scratch. The big dogs are a whole different animal.

 

[jsasker007]

What "trickled down" to us avg. folks was one of 2 colors - yellow or brown. Since all the offshoring that started in the 1980's - how have everyone's lives gotten much better?? How yummy has your "trickle" been??? The very phrase "trickle down economics" is an INSULT to any thinking American worker - white or blue collar. We avg. workers get the "scraps" that are left after the 1% take their train-load of money out of the economic "pie." Are your kids going to be CEO's of big companies?? If that's not likely ............ do we leave them a "trickle," like the politicians have enacted???

Without saying it in actual words - corporate "America" told American workers that, " You've been paid way too much for years. So we're going to move our plants offshore to where workers are just happy to get their meals, and they don't get "benefits" either. No retirement plans, no Social Security, no Medicare, no "sick days", no 401-k's, and we'll work them 7 days a week. No environmental laws to speak of either. So we've turned the whole world into our personal cheap labor market, where all workers will have to "compete" against each other. Whoever will work the cheapest - that's where we'll set up our factories." This is what corporate "America" has said to American workers - without saying the words. We outdoors guys look for "sign", "tracks", "evidence" - right?? What evidence and "signs" do we REALLY see concerning our national security, our (and our kids' / grandkids') economic future???

And then other "developed countries" followed suit & moved their factories to cheap labor countries - which happen to be in regions of the world where enemy states like China and Russia have greater influence. How smart is that for "free democracies" to place things vital to our collective national securities in such unsafe places??? Our own U.S. military Joint Chiefs of Staff warned against that decades ago - but were ignored. Now we worry about China invading Taiwan and taking over the cutting-edge chip-making facilities there. WE NEED THOSE CHIPS FOR OUR DEFENSE!!!!!

Hooray for the red, white & blue???? Lots of talk about "patriots" anymore. But we Americans voted for the very people who enacted these laws making it quick & easy to move our "American" factories overseas. Do some homework and look to SEVERAL sources - not one or two - to see who signed all those free-trade ( "ultra-cheap labor" ) agreements that moved American jobs to China, Indonesia, Mexico, Bangladesh, India, Pakistan, Malaysia, Singapore, Honduras, Myanmar, Thailand, Viet Nam, Panama, Dominican Republic, Peru .......... are you feeling patriotic yet??? If you're old enough to remember - the American unions warned HEAVILY about what would happen to American jobs if those "free trade" agreements went into effect. American workers warned other American workers, and there was a push to get folks to "buy American" - but those union folks were lambasted as "whiners." Those days of just getting up every day, grabbing your lunch box, and showing up every day at work to do your job with pride, skill, and loyalty are GONE. Fear and trepidation envelope everyone - wondering IF you'll have a job tomorrow. What about our kids & grandkids' futures??? HOW PATRIOTIC ARE WE ......... REALLY???

BTW - I'm not bashing on mom & pop operations or 1 - 4 man operations that started from scratch. The big dogs are a whole different animal.

Sorry to hear of your hatred towards this country. Can't change the past. I still go to work everyday of the week and very well could end up working right up until death.

 

[Foggy47]

^ "WE NEED THOSE CHIPS FOR OUR DEFENSE!!!!!"

The Phoenix AZ metro has got huge facilities being built as we speak to house Taiwan Semi Conductor's efforts to make chips. Multi - Billions of dollars being spent to make this a reality. I think they will be in production with a year or so. Been building since BEFORE Biden was elected.....but he will try to take credit for this.

I believe this was done in order to get this largest provider of chips back here in the USA before China takes over Taiwan.....which is going to happen pretty soon.....IMO.

I agree with much of what was said in BowsNBucks post......however it's not always just cheap labor that has driven these companies to offshore their production. I saw a few "career jobs" evaporate due to the "energy crisis" that came about in the 70's. OPEC raised holy hell with our economy as did OSHA, Environmentalists, Politics, energy, raw materials, taxes, logistics, and various costs of doing business, and laws have forced many to move or die. Savvy businessman find alternatives to problems......nothing new in that.

 

[bwoods11]

If Trickle down economic bashing is meant at a dig @ Reagan or Trump, you better explain how they compare economically to Carter & Biden.

Reagan is the best President since the 70s and Trump would be second.

Their economic stretch would be economic bliss, with Carter & Biden being economic turmoil.

Look at inflation, compare trade deals, compare the stock market … it was so much better under Reagan & Trump is not even remotely close !!

 

[jsasker007]

Maybe GFS would be a good stock to buy? 5 huge facilities strategically placed to make "chips" for whoever needs them.

 

[jsasker007]

If Trickle down economic bashing is meant at a dig in Reagan or Trump, you better explain how they compare economically to Carter & Biden.

Reagan is the best President since the 70s and Trump would be second.

Their economic stretch would be economic bliss, with Carter & Biden being economic turmoil.

Look at inflation, compare trade deals, compare the stock market … it was so much better under Reagan & Trump is not even remotely close !!

Sometimes it's better if we don't pull back the curtain and see the wizard.

 

[Angus 1895]

ABML

dropped under $1 yesterday.

finished $1.24 opening bid today may be $1.30.

 

[Bill]

There used to be a long time member on the forum that always bucked everyone else. Never started anything just poked a stick at it to get a reaction.

He’s not here any longer…

Read between the lines.

 

[SD51555]

I switched my treasuries order at the last minute. I ditched the 6 and 2 month treasuries, and went with all 1-month. The way the yields have been reacting to the impending squeeze by the man behind the green curtain, I'd like to wait a month and see if that yield on the 6-mo climbs some more. Big picture 4.7% in the 1 month or 5.2% in the 6 month ain't too different. Now if I can get 6.2% in April, that'd be super.

 

[bwoods11]

SIVB crushed today.. not a good sign !

 

[buckvelvet]

There used to be a long time member on the forum that always bucked everyone else. Never started anything just poked a stick at it to get a reaction.

He’s not here any longer…

Read between the lines.

Did he look like this?

 

[jsasker007]

Thanks! I was going to eat one of my sandwiches but now I'm not hungry.

 

[Foggy47]

I switched my treasuries order at the last minute. I ditched the 6 and 2 month treasuries, and went with all 1-month. The way the yields have been reacting to the impending squeeze by the man behind the green curtain, I'd like to wait a month and see if that yield on the 6-mo climbs some more. Big picture 4.7% in the 1 month or 5.2% in the 6 month ain't too different. Now if I can get 6.2% in April, that'd be super.

Current Money Market rate is 4.63%.....in or out any time. Why use fixed dates for short term holdings? My 2 cents.

 

[SD51555]

Current Money Market rate is 4.63%.....in or out any time. Why use fixed dates for short term holdings? My 2 cents.

I got those 1-mo's at 4.69%, and no mutual fund policies to deal wiith. I also have a thing about paying for stuff like that. That's one of those $200/hr jobs I like to do myself. I spanked the pros last year. Been sucking hind tit lately as the dividends stocks start to rot.