Stock Market is the bottom in?

Who the hell needs a 3000 sqft house with four bathrooms and a four stall garage?
That would seem to be a small house in most of the suburban neighborhoods I see.

FWIW...I agree with you
 
It’s not coming, it’s here! I have heard of a bank offer 96 mos loans! Part of the problem came when it was (accurately) reported that there is a shortage of cars due to chip shortage. People who didn’t even need a new car went out and bought one (new or used) because of the “perceived “ shortage. This increased the shortage of cars which then inflated price. I was telling all my family and friends “do not buy a car right now, unless you need one, and if you need one, buy new. if the people who bought used lose their jobs, and this occurs in mass, we are in trouble. If not, we are fine. Banks are not panicing at all. Subprime is still being bought. I only know of one bank that is exiting the car marke. One I know is slowing down, but most are still buying lots of paper.

You are right, it's just being suppressed by the consumer debt run up and Gov't entitlement programs. Employers have also had to pay excessive compensation, beyond market rate, for employees. If this loan forgiveness program gets enacted, even more money will flood the economy. The Fed keeps screaming pay attention to me, but too many people are ignoring them.
 
Another stock to look at is PBTS. Been climbing for a few days now and already at 2 1/2 times the normal daily volume less than an hour after open. Something going on with that one.
 
Built our house in 1988 while I was earning about $11/hr, interest rate was 10% on the ARM. Only borrowed what we could afford, paid it off early by making extra payments and refinancing to a lower interest rate. Skipped the toys and fancy vehicles. Why go in debt until you're drowning for something that depreciates to nothing in a few years?
My wife and I did the same things. Our house was built in 1986, and we lived (and still live) pretty simply. Paid extra on the mortgage payment principal, re-financed to a lower fixed rate. No fancy cars, boats, campers, motorcycles, etc. I had the house dried-in when it was built, and did most of the interior work myself, including hanging the doors, all stained woodwork, and painting. Landscaped the property myself. The savings from doing those things myself was invested. Cut my own firewood which heated our home for the most part. Using the local utility's avg. heating figures for a home of our size (2000 sq, ft.), we've saved over $42,000 in "normal" heating bills by heating with mostly free wood. Furnace used VERY lightly. That allowed us to invest even more. If we wanted to go on a vacation - we could. Eat out - we could. Being a bit frugal and not flashy can pay off long-term.

Vehicles are needed - but their value goes down as soon as you drive it off the lot. You're exactly right, Jerry-B-WI.
 
My wife and I did the same things. Our house was built in 1986, and we lived (and still live) pretty simply. Paid extra on the mortgage payment principal, re-financed to a lower fixed rate. No fancy cars, boats, campers, motorcycles, etc. I had the house dried-in when it was built, and did most of the interior work myself, including hanging the doors, all stained woodwork, and painting. Landscaped the property myself. The savings from doing those things myself was invested. Cut my own firewood which heated our home for the most part. Using the local utility's avg. heating figures for a home of our size (2000 sq, ft.), we've saved over $42,000 in "normal" heating bills by heating with mostly free wood. Furnace used VERY lightly. That allowed us to invest even more. If we wanted to go on a vacation - we could. Eat out - we could. Being a bit frugal and not flashy can pay off long-term.

Vehicles are needed - but their value goes down as soon as you drive it off the lot. You're exactly right, Jerry-B-WI.
We put some sweat equity into the house, but not as much as you did. When we built our cabin the only thing that was contracted out was the tear down of the old one, the slab for the new one , drywall work and the carpet. Did everything else on our own with help from friends and family.
 
You are right, it's just being suppressed by the consumer debt run up and Gov't entitlement programs. Employers have also had to pay excessive compensation, beyond market rate, for employees. If this loan forgiveness program gets enacted, even more money will flood the economy. The Fed keeps screaming pay attention to me, but too many people are ignoring them.
I can't imagine how many big screen TV's and car loans were financed with stimulus money and student loan payment suspensions. All them chickens will come home to roost and it'll be ugly.
 

All this, and TSN is still in the toilet. I don't understand it. Might need to top up the strategic hamburger supply before the big dirty touches off in May.
 
ABML reports a big lithium find near tonapah NV.

this stock has gone up nicely
 
I started moving a little cash to short term treasuries. I figured out how to buy and sell them directly on my trading platform. I'm scooping up 3 month and 6 month treasuries. Should the bottom blow out of the market, I should be able to liquidate these at a moment's notice and go looting. I'm about 80% equities, 11% cash, 9% treasuries. I'll probably hold at that until we get some more info.

1677944956270.png

This is what I'm holding right now for stocks in order from biggest holdings to smallest.

1677946571440.png
 
I started moving a little cash to short term treasuries. I figured out how to buy and sell them directly on my trading platform. I'm scooping up 3 month and 6 month treasuries. Should the bottom blow out of the market, I should be able to liquidate these at a moment's notice and go looting. I'm about 80% equities, 11% cash, 9% treasuries. I'll probably hold at that until we get some more info.

View attachment 50439

This is what I'm holding right now for stocks in order from biggest holdings to smallest.

View attachment 50440
What...no sin stocks?
 
What...no sin stocks?

I used to own STZ because I’m a big fan of Modelo in the summer, but that one has been a dog for a while.


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Had to look at some investments on line. I have some cash stuffed into my SWVXX money market account.....and it's generating nearly a 4.5% yield currently. Much better than a few months ago. Cash is not as hard to hold at these rates as it used to be. It's hard to lose the liquidity feature of the MM accounts for another 1/2 point on a CD or treasury.

Pushing a few pretty big gains around.....as it's hard to pay taxes on the gains in some big movers.....even tho we regularly trim positions.....still sitting on some decent gains. United Health, like Apple......is a gift that keeps on giving. Some of these have been owned a long time....but they also have been pared back due to overweight in the holdings.

AAPL = 12 x investment
ADP = 6.5 x
UNH = 7.3 x
FISV 5.6 x
 
Had to look at some investments on line. I have some cash stuffed into my SWVXX money market account.....and it's generating nearly a 4.5% yield currently. Much better than a few months ago. Cash is not as hard to hold at these rates as it used to be. It's hard to lose the liquidity feature of the MM accounts for another 1/2 point on a CD or treasury.

Pushing a few pretty big gains around.....as it's hard to pay taxes on the gains in some big movers.....even tho we regularly trim positions.....still sitting on some decent gains. United Health, like Apple......is a gift that keeps on giving. Some of these have been owned a long time....but they also have been pared back due to overweight in the holdings.

AAPL = 12 x investment
ADP = 6.5 x
UNH = 7.3 x
FISV 5.6 x

I was trying to find one of those but couldn’t for some reason. I already plunked my cash down for the 3/6 auction, so I’m committed.


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I was trying to find one of those but couldn’t for some reason. I already plunked my cash down for the 3/6 auction, so I’m committed.


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When it comes to mutual funds.....it's hard to beat those offered by Vanguard. They have lots of mutual funds and ETF's to fit most everyone's needs. Schwab is doing better in some areas too.....and their money funds are quite good. In times past.....the Vanguard Health Care fund was a consistent winner for me.
 
When it comes to mutual funds.....it's hard to beat those offered by Vanguard. They have lots of mutual funds and ETF's to fit most everyone's needs. Schwab is doing better in some areas too.....and their money funds are quite good. In times past.....the Vanguard Health Care fund was a consistent winner for me.
I first learned about Vanguard and the much smaller number of mutual funds it then managed in 1975. The Vanguard Windsor Fund when John Neff ran it was kicking a##. Health Care Fund was also a monster - haven't followed it lately.
 
I first learned about Vanguard and the much smaller number of mutual funds it then managed in 1975. The Vanguard Windsor Fund when John Neff ran it was kicking a##. Health Care Fund was also a monster - haven't followed it lately.
In the 80's I owned several of the Vanguard Funds including the Health Care Portfolio, 500 Index, and the Emerging Markets Fund. Sadly, did I ring the bell on the International funds when America was busy offshoring all it's big and dirty industry. "We" (America) shuffled all our heavy industry and many others to the Asian continent.....and let the mid-east kick our asses in energy. NOW, we wonder "what happned?" Duh! America has shot itself in the foot on so many times I can hardly beleive it. <------that may be the only good thing to come of Covid......that we put some of our basic needs back in place once again. One can hope!

You couldn't help but to make some money if you bought and held stocks in the 80's and 90's. Those were the best decades I have experienced as an investor. Sometimes you gotta wait a long time to get a run like that. Tho we had a pretty good run after the '08 melt down too. It's only money. ;).
 
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Interesting read on where the housing market is at the moment. Forget the headline, but check out this chart. This is the breakdown of mortgage rates. 2/3 of current primary mortgages out there are at or under 3.75%. Gonna be an interesting year if these rates persist above 6.5% for an extended period of time.

If a home was bought with a $320,000 mortgage at 3.75% an equal payment amount at 7% would only yield $223,000 in mortgage power.


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^ Interesting. When I bought my first home.....typical rates were about 7% and rising. Got up as high as 14% or so.....and folks would buy before the price went higher. Took a long time for mortgage rates to drop to those of the past ten years or so. Still cheap by historic terms. Of course the homes we were buying were a fraction of todays prices. My first home was 3 BR / 2 bath....and cost me 20k.
 
^ Interesting. When I bought my first home.....typical rates were about 7% and rising. Got up as high as 14% or so.....and folks would buy before the price went higher. Took a long time for mortgage rates to drop to those of the past ten years or so. Still cheap by historic terms. Of course the homes we were buying were a fraction of todays prices. My first home was 3 BR / 2 bath....and cost me 20k.
Just reflecting on this......and I sold that 20k home for 60K (by myself) after 7 years.....and built a new home for 120 k....with a 7% / 30 year mortgage....which seemed a stretch. Was not. We got "stuck" in that home for nearly 20 years as we could not see a way out. Nice place to be.....and raise my kids. Then my biz got REALLY good....and had some "mad Money" to invest....and bought a new built home for $400k (cash).....and sold the "old" house for about 200k. Yikes....life in the fast lane? Lived happy for many years in a great home. Then sold my biz....and retired with excess money to put into another new place....and built a home on the lake. No mortgage / no payments . Just living the good life.....after many years of sweating it out. American dream?.....maybe. Taking risks? ---- you damn right! Winning? Absolutely!...but not without sticking your neck out. Not sure many folks know how to do that without lots of hard work and high risk today.

For us it was a long and uncertain journey for sure. Good luck! (and don't be afraid to stick your neck out). My2 cents, As a guess....I'd say things are about 10x more expensive today than then were 50 years ago. Hard to imagine the world 50 years from now.
 
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"We" (America) shuffled all our heavy industry and many others to the Asian continent.
I watched the speech to the nation in the 1980's where a certain president said "...We're going to change our economy from a manufacturing-based economy, to a service-based economy." That's when the flood gates opened up to the offshoring of "American" industry. Even our military Joint Chiefs of Staff argued (for a couple decades) against moving vital industries overseas for national security reasons. But corporate "America" won the day - and our manufacturing left the U.S.

All Americans should do some homework and see WHO signed all the "free trade" (poverty-cheap labor) agreements that cut the usual government-to-government steps that used to be required to set up shop in another country. - - - All to get the "American" industries moved offshore QUICKER. I lived through this and watched EVERY move made ......... and who made them.
 
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