Input shortages

From what I can glean ,the cause of CCD may be a multifactorial perfect storm of pesticides,herbicides, and multiple evil viruses borne by Varroa mites

bill
Honey bees arent in to much trouble dept of ag stats say more hives in the us than any time in history , they may be dyeing out faster but are started up at a faster rate than ever ,, Our modern honey bees are not native to this continent mans import from Europe ,, native pollinators are being harmed because of lack of habitat , sprayed monocultures industrial ag ect ,, most big honey producers move hives from place to place to get big fees for pollination services on the monoculture clean industrial model farms and pick up dieses on the three or more stops locations per year ,, bee version of late sat night mistakes ,,
 
Just bought some UREA - 46-0-0. $29 per 50 lb bag. Obscene. $800 per ton bulk. Farmers going to have a tough row to hoe this year
 
Only farmer I have talked to about input prices was a college buddy who does over 40k acres last I checked in ND. He didn’t seem that fazed as long as crop prices stay up.
 
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6-28-28 in my area has gone from about $17 / 50# bag to about $23 / 50#. More expensive but not really affecting the food plotting crowd IMO..
 
6-28-28 in my area has gone from about $17 / 50# bag to about $23 / 50#. More expensive but not really affecting the food plotting crowd IMO..

Makes me glad I went to a soil health and nutrient cycling approach. That is a 35% increase in one year. The last time I used fertilizer was back in 2015 and the bill was $2,270 bought in bulk and applied myself. I'm sure it had gone up since then. If I was still using fertilizer, it would be about an $800 increase. I find that quite significant.
 
Urea - 42-0-0 - went from $16 last year to $29 yesterday for 50 lb bag. Those who only manage for turkey and deer have the easy job. When you throw in ducks and doves, the anti goes way up. Seed head production is key. Most grasses really respond to increased nitrogen inputs.

I was talking to a farmer planting corn on 600 acres next to me. He said right now, corn prices are stable - and yes, I have been buying 50 lb bags for my hog hunting at $8.99. Pretty close to the same I was paying end of last summer. Inputs - fert, herbicide, seed, fuel costs all up 50 to 75% from last year planting season. Hard to believe that isnt going to have some effect on farmers - not to mention if they can even get it. My feed store right now is out of generic round up

I just paid $52 for two lbs sweet corn seed. Not sure what sweet corn prices will be this year, but at the cheapest, it usually gets to about a quarter per ear in the grocery stores. I usually put up about 200 ears. If sweet corn gets down to .25 cents this year, I fould have bought 200 ears for $50. I still have to spray herbicide, fertilize, and cultivate
 
About the same here. $17 for 6-24-24 now$26. His triple 15 and potash the same price.

Definitely glad I am building a plot seeder. Tune it that fertilizer looooooow. Where food plotters are having an issue is fuel. $130 to get to my hunting lease. Going to read up well on clover plots and find out what I really need to do for a minimum. Monthly mowings likely wont happen this year.
 
Urea - 42-0-0 - went from $16 last year to $29 yesterday for 50 lb bag. Those who only manage for turkey and deer have the easy job. When you throw in ducks and doves, the anti goes way up. Seed head production is key. Most grasses really respond to increased nitrogen inputs.

I was talking to a farmer planting corn on 600 acres next to me. He said right now, corn prices are stable - and yes, I have been buying 50 lb bags for my hog hunting at $8.99. Pretty close to the same I was paying end of last summer. Inputs - fert, herbicide, seed, fuel costs all up 50 to 75% from last year planting season. Hard to believe that isnt going to have some effect on farmers - not to mention if they can even get it. My feed store right now is out of generic round up

I just paid $52 for two lbs sweet corn seed. Not sure what sweet corn prices will be this year, but at the cheapest, it usually gets to about a quarter per ear in the grocery stores. I usually put up about 200 ears. If sweet corn gets down to .25 cents this year, I fould have bought 200 ears for $50. I still have to spray herbicide, fertilize, and cultivate
Yes, I don't envy farmers and never have. It is a tough job. It is kind of like archery hunting. A thousand little things all have to go right for success, and only one has to go wrong for failure.
 
Maybe Im nuts.......

Should I be buying 2 years worth of fertilizer? I dont use a ton, usually 6-10 bags a year. 25-27 bucks for 50lb bags.

The AG co-op told me they were bagging some up, got there and still didnt have any bags. Picked up 8lbs buckwheat, 2lbs dutch white, 2lbs alphalfa. New to buckwheat and alphalfa.

Also, anyone interested. Green Cover have a milpa garden grant. Giving it a shot at my home. Eyed out some electric fence stuff today. Felt a little ripped of at tractor supply Bought a bag of oats for $20 last month from them. Used 1/2 of it. Bought another bag for $23.. Bought a bag for $13 last spring.
 
Maybe Im nuts.......

Should I be buying 2 years worth of fertilizer? I dont use a ton, usually 6-10 bags a year. 25-27 bucks for 50lb bags.

The AG co-op told me they were bagging some up, got there and still didnt have any bags. Picked up 8lbs buckwheat, 2lbs dutch white, 2lbs alphalfa. New to buckwheat and alphalfa.

Also, anyone interested. Green Cover have a milpa garden grant. Giving it a shot at my home. Eyed out some electric fence stuff today. Felt a little ripped of at tractor supply Bought a bag of oats for $20 last month from them. Used 1/2 of it. Bought another bag for $23.. Bought a bag for $13 last spring.
Beware, Tractor Supply memes incoming, mixed with some fed and libertarian rib seasoning.

Because I'm bored right now...
 
Maybe Im nuts.......

Should I be buying 2 years worth of fertilizer? I dont use a ton, usually 6-10 bags a year. 25-27 bucks for 50lb bags.

The AG co-op told me they were bagging some up, got there and still didnt have any bags. Picked up 8lbs buckwheat, 2lbs dutch white, 2lbs alphalfa. New to buckwheat and alphalfa.

Also, anyone interested. Green Cover have a milpa garden grant. Giving it a shot at my home. Eyed out some electric fence stuff today. Felt a little ripped of at tractor supply Bought a bag of oats for $20 last month from them. Used 1/2 of it. Bought another bag for $23.. Bought a bag for $13 last spring.
Nobody knows for sure what's going to happen with fertilizer prices. With that said, I think at the very least they're going to come down some next year. Some of the nitrogen price increases were from the hurricane last year stalling production. Also, there are two new sulfate of potash mines starting up in Canada. I think once supply chains get caught up, there will be an increase in supply and a decrease in price.
 
Maybe Im nuts.......

Should I be buying 2 years worth of fertilizer? I dont use a ton, usually 6-10 bags a year. 25-27 bucks for 50lb bags.

The AG co-op told me they were bagging some up, got there and still didnt have any bags. Picked up 8lbs buckwheat, 2lbs dutch white, 2lbs alphalfa. New to buckwheat and alphalfa.

Also, anyone interested. Green Cover have a milpa garden grant. Giving it a shot at my home. Eyed out some electric fence stuff today. Felt a little ripped of at tractor supply Bought a bag of oats for $20 last month from them. Used 1/2 of it. Bought another bag for $23.. Bought a bag for $13 last spring.

Prices are at all times highs now because supply chains have been disrupted. Production plants were shut down, employees being told or required not to leave their homes, then paid govt entitlement money to stay home means many of the raw material processors (lumber, steel, energy, minerals, etc.) are in the process of trying to bring production back online. Without the required amount of labor coming back to work, significant material shortages will continue to exist. Add high demand for all these goods and you have a real cluster f......

Shutdown domestic oil & gas production, then insult Saudi Arabia, you have the price of oil now at $107/bbl when back on Dec 1, 2021 it was $66/bbl. All on the producers such as steel mils, paper & board mills, and mineral processors use a lot of energy in their process'.

Have the Fed and the Whitehouse deny that inflation is real, and delay dealing has put inflation at 8.5% which is at a 40 year high. Whitehouse spending is considered one of the biggest threats to driving inflation higher and potentially into a recession.

Was at an economic forum put on by our bank last week. Short take away ... inflation will continue to rise, their is real concern about a recession, prime interest rates will continue to rise over next 12 months which will drive mortgage rates even higher, commodity prices should stabilize and start to come down in next 12-18 months. The caveat is that if the Gov't continues to pump more money into the economy and continues to deny inflation is her and real, we could see a real economic catastrophe.

Given that Russia in the top producer of Urea and Pakistan, & Iran #4 & 5 (note that Russia in #3 potash producer), good chances prices will continue to rise if you can get it.
 
Prices are at all times highs now because supply chains have been disrupted. Production plants were shut down, employees being told or required not to leave their homes, then paid govt entitlement money to stay home means many of the raw material processors (lumber, steel, energy, minerals, etc.) are in the process of trying to bring production back online. Without the required amount of labor coming back to work, significant material shortages will continue to exist. Add high demand for all these goods and you have a real cluster f......

Shutdown domestic oil & gas production, then insult Saudi Arabia, you have the price of oil now at $107/bbl when back on Dec 1, 2021 it was $66/bbl. All on the producers such as steel mils, paper & board mills, and mineral processors use a lot of energy in their process'.

Have the Fed and the Whitehouse deny that inflation is real, and delay dealing has put inflation at 8.5% which is at a 40 year high. Whitehouse spending is considered one of the biggest threats to driving inflation higher and potentially into a recession.

Was at an economic forum put on by our bank last week. Short take away ... inflation will continue to rise, their is real concern about a recession, prime interest rates will continue to rise over next 12 months which will drive mortgage rates even higher, commodity prices should stabilize and start to come down in next 12-18 months. The caveat is that if the Gov't continues to pump more money into the economy and continues to deny inflation is her and real, we could see a real economic catastrophe.

Given that Russia in the top producer of Urea and Pakistan, & Iran #4 & 5 (note that Russia in #3 potash producer), good chances prices will continue to rise if you can get it.
Food prices will be nuts next year no doubt. Tons of folks already in debt a good bit in the US, interest rates and bills go up, bankruptcys will rise, Im sure thatll add to interest rates.
 
Prices will never return to pre pandemic. Was talking to a worker about the obscene price of OSB - he said we would never see prices return to pre pandemic because labor rates increased so much. He said entry level positions $3 higher now at home depot than two years ago. He said pay was up across the board there. Truckers making more, mill workers making more - he said they werent ever going to lower workers pay. In addition, he said current administration’s goal is to raise oil prices high enough to justify switch to the high cost of non carbon energy. Much of the population is too stupid to understand that oil is not just used to make fuel for cars and trucks.

The current ruling class wants higher oil costs for vehicles - the problem is, oil prices affect food prices, fertilizer price, herbicide price, toy price - everything. The current ruling class is dead set on raising labor rates - which in turn makes everything cost more. The current ruling class is all about free money - actually tax payer dollars - which incentivizes folks not to work - which reduces the amount of goods and services in the supply chain - which raises the price of everything. Anyone who has taken one economics class in their life could have predicted prices - along with inflation - was going to increase. The old basic law of supply and demand.
 
So more, free government money wont help? Because the democrats think it will. They think if they just keep passing trillions of dollars worth of "free money" and giving it out to pet projects will make the pain go away.

I am self employed, and I cant just get a raise, or raise my prices easily. So this whole inflation thing has really put a hurting on my free money for projects, and it is making retirement a dream that isnt achievable.
 
Round 2 of getting Flammed..........

Went to the local Agway co-op. They mix their own fertilizer and bag. $25-27 each 50lb bags... (2) bags of Potash (3) bags 15-15-15 (3) bags 6-24-24 2lbs ladino 2.5lbs birdsfoot trefoil (1) Bushel bag of winter rye................. drum roll migrane please...... $283 with tax.

Putting down thin. Hoping my little plots can sip this over 2 years. maybe maybe not.......
 
Wait til a year after grain prices crash back to normal. I don't care which fertilizer company blew up, or if a train has covid or who Brandon is teasing into WW3. As soon as corn has a 3 in front of it again inputs will be priced accordingly.
 
i would be very surprised if we will ever see a three in front of corn ,,, 5 may well be the new normal
 
You might be right, but that's been said every time, and always wrong so far.
 
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