Input shortages

[FarmerDan]

Yep. Beyond a few university studies, organic/hobby farmers and trial food plotters - Regenerative ag is essentially non existent.

I don't want it to rain on anyone's parade (said the appointed misanthrope), but let's get real about the true rate of adoption of new agricultural technologies (playing off your affirmation Bass).

For example, https://www.usda.gov/media/blog/2017/11/30/saving-money-time-and-soil-economics-no-till-farming
"What percent of US farmland is no-till?

The potential benefits of no-till are well-documented, from improving soil health to reducing annual fuel and labor investments. Still, continuous no-till has been adopted across only 21 percent of all cultivated cropland acres in the United States Aug 3, 2021."

All that started about 50-years ago.

Ya'll know what corn hybrids are. Did you know there was corn before hybrids? It got about 4 feet tall and yielded many teens of bushels per acre. In the transition the seed companies like Pioneer had corn hybrids planted along every road where corn could be grown so farmers could see the difference, yet it took 15-years for hybrids to be fully adopted. And the difference could be seen - right there - along the road. What about stuff that can't be seen? Good stuff, but how long until it comes in to widespread use? If you're hoping for quickly history is not on your side. Don't get me wrong, I'm all for it (maybe) and I hope it (whatever "it" is) comes into play faster.

Keep an open mind. For anyone who says their practice will eliminate fertilizer use I can think of 5 reasons why it won't. If you think you will never need to lime again I can think for 4 reason why you should. And fire is good until it gets out of control. Weeds are good until....

 

[yoderjac]

I don't want it to rain on anyone's parade (said the appointed misanthrope), but let's get real about the true rate of adoption of new agricultural technologies (playing off your affirmation Bass).

For example, https://www.usda.gov/media/blog/2017/11/30/saving-money-time-and-soil-economics-no-till-farming
"What percent of US farmland is no-till?

The potential benefits of no-till are well-documented, from improving soil health to reducing annual fuel and labor investments. Still, continuous no-till has been adopted across only 21 percent of all cultivated cropland acres in the United States Aug 3, 2021."

All that started about 50-years ago.

Ya'll know what corn hybrids are. Did you know there was corn before hybrids? It got about 4 feet tall and yielded many teens of bushels per acre. In the transition the seed companies like Pioneer had corn hybrids planted along every road where corn could be grown so farmers could see the difference, yet it took 15-years for hybrids to be fully adopted. And the difference could be seen - right there - along the road. What about stuff that can't be seen? Good stuff, but how long until it comes in to widespread use? If you're hoping for quickly history is not on your side. Don't get me wrong, I'm all for it (maybe) and I hope it (whatever "it" is) comes into play faster.

Keep an open mind. For anyone who says their practice will eliminate fertilizer use I can think of 5 reasons why it won't. If you think you will never need to lime again I can think for 4 reason why you should. And fire is good until it gets out of control. Weeds are good until....

For commercial farming, I completely agree. NRCS has been evangelizing no-till for a very long time with good sound evidence. As far at eliminating commercial fertilizer, I'm not sure we will see that in commercial farming, but it is a reality for deer management. Yield seems to be king with commercial farming. Harvest requires specialized equipment that depends on some planting practices. With out the constraints of commercial farming, there is a lot more flexibility for food plotters. Mixing and rotating complementary crops without extracting nutrients through harvest along with general weed tolerance really changes the equation.

I kind of think of food plotting like this. Every plant originally came from nature and selective breeding (until very recently). These plants can all grow in the right conditions with no commercial fertilizer. When we bend nature slightly to benefit particular species, we can minimize or even eliminate commercial fertilizer. Now, we are not going to grow a monoculture of high yield corn like this, but we can find great deer foods in the right combination that will do just fine without it.

The problem with commercial farming is that we are trying to feed a world of hungry mouths and to do that, we need yield and efficient harvest and production techniques. I tend to agree that eliminating commercial fertilizer from commercial farming may be a pretty faint hope.

Thakns,

Jack

 

[SD51555]

Well, as with anything, it's not a problem until it's a problem.

It's been ten years since Undercover Farmers came out. What we know today makes these guys look like amateurs.

 

[Skeeter]

 

[FarmerDan]

For commercial farming, I completely agree. NRCS has been evangelizing no-till for a very long time with good sound evidence. As far at eliminating commercial fertilizer, I'm not sure we will see that in commercial farming, but it is a reality for deer management. Yield seems to be king with commercial farming. Harvest requires specialized equipment that depends on some planting practices. With out the constraints of commercial farming, there is a lot more flexibility for food plotters. Mixing and rotating complementary crops without extracting nutrients through harvest along with general weed tolerance really changes the equation.

I kind of think of food plotting like this. Every plant originally came from nature and selective breeding (until very recently). These plants can all grow in the right conditions with no commercial fertilizer. When we bend nature slightly to benefit particular species, we can minimize or even eliminate commercial fertilizer. Now, we are not going to grow a monoculture of high yield corn like this, but we can find great deer foods in the right combination that will do just fine without it.

The problem with commercial farming is that we are trying to feed a world of hungry mouths and to do that, we need yield and efficient harvest and production techniques. I tend to agree that eliminating commercial fertilizer from commercial farming may be a pretty faint hope.

Thakns,

Jack

I stayed up late anticipating and hoping for your response but I gave up too soon. I found I couldn't sleep. I will neither agree or disagree with your position although you might want to reconsider some of your assertions - or at least your phrasing of them. You have a mission that you ae tightly attached to and I strongly encourage you to continue that mission. Hope springs eternal.

Frankly, I'm appalled at the apparent amount of money "we" spend doing food plots. As you've found and elevated to a high level, doing habitat "improvement" provides benefits far exceeding any other deer management activity.

But let me ask, why start a thread on input shortages if we don't need any?

 

[TreeDaddy]

I stayed up late anticipating and hoping for your response but I gave up too soon. I found I couldn't sleep. I will neither agree or disagree with your position although you might want to reconsider some of your assertions - or at least your phrasing of them. You have a mission that you ae tightly attached to and I strongly encourage you to continue that mission. Hope springs eternal.

Frankly, I'm appalled at the apparent amount of money "we" spend doing food plots. As you've found and elevated to a high level, doing habitat "improvement" provides benefits far exceeding any other deer management activity.

But let me ask, why start a thread on input shortages if we don't need any?

Further, who's "bending" who?

Displease mother Nature( excessive tillage,pesticides,chemicals) and she will bend you(over)

She graciously allows success when we work with her

bill

 

[SD51555]

You know what’s interesting, I bet you I’ve seen Three Sturgis videos in the past few weeks where he’s taken a good deal of time to dispel the myth that you can grow food plots without buckwheat and glyphosate.

On the other side of the internet, Woods is putting out a new video each saying the exact opposite.


Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk

 

[Bassattackr]

Great points @FarmerDan - However, I should clarify..

Yes, many doing the cover crop and/or no til thing. Not many doing the complete regenerative ag system however. Many row croppers do not have livestock.

Part of it is education, the other part is necessity. If conventional tillage in flat (not erosion prone on HEL), lower elevation areas consistently yields well over 230 bpa corn every year, not many see the necessity or desire to take on the risk to leave this. There is quite a learning and trial/error curve to no-til and cover crops if you're leaving conventional agriculture. Moisture management, soil temperatures, pests.. etc. You know what I'm talking about.. Most food plotters will never understand this.

Back to food plots:

- I enjoy Dr. Woods videos and practices, however unless you're willing to purchase a no til drill and a roller crimper AND be on the property with said crimper at exactly the right window... You may not end up terminating what you want. His angle is obvious however, save $350 on fertilizer! Just need to buy $20,000 worth of equipment first! Just hook up to this nice 75+ HP tractor you have laying around and go! Hmm..

- Food plotting is a booming and huge business. I doubt input prices will affect it much, unless they completely get out of hand. Largely due to 1) The scale and 2) The fact you aren't pulling the stover and nutrients from the land. When you're doing 5 acres or less, I would argue it isn't something that moves the needle for most people when it is their passion.

- Sturgis is clueless. Yea, I said it.

 

[Wind Gypsy]

@SD51555 - I'm intrigued by your input on these topics and curious if you've posted a general overview of your food plotting program anywhere?

 

[Mortenson]

I just like how if you search online for how much soil is left, the number commonly seen is 60 years. Some say 100 years. Some say 30. I've heard soil experts in areas like mine say we won't run out of topsoil in a thousand years, at current loss rates. Obviously, as everyone knows, certain areas are much more fragile than others. UN said yesterday we're on the realm of nuclear war. Doomsday clock has 100 seconds til midnight. AOC's GoBot Watch has only 8 years left. I feel comfortable we're going to make it on the soil end of things. That said, reducing a pass of tillage or chemical, when possible, is always a step in the right direction.

 

[Foggy47]

I think many farmers have taken steps in the right direction via turning dirt in fall as was the practice in time gone by. Minimum tillage and vertical ag are happening now. Lots more poultry, dairy, and hog manure used on the land for fertilizer inputs than a few decades ago. Some cover cropping is happening but a long way to go here for large scale farming. Still....regenerative ag practices as promoted by the extension offices are no where near main stream. I suppose if it can be proven to pay off financially....more farmers will drift in that direction.

 

[Mortenson]

There's a $15/ac rebate on your crop insurance premium if you cover crop. Might help put a few guys over the hump.

 

[SD51555]

@SD51555 - I'm intrigued by your input on these topics and curious if you've posted a general overview of your food plotting program anywhere?

I used to post everything. I was one of the original signers of the Declaration of Independence from QDMA that moved here when this started.

Ill help anybody one on one, but out in the open, it gets too contentious trying to offer a second opinion.

 

[Bassattackr]

There's a $15/ac rebate on your crop insurance premium if you cover crop. Might help put a few guys over the hump.

Still a lot of requirements to qualify. Termination timing, method, etc..

 

[Bassattackr]

I think many farmers have taken steps in the right direction via turning dirt in fall as was the practice in time gone by. Minimum tillage and vertical ag are happening now. Lots more poultry, dairy, and hog manure used on the land for fertilizer inputs than a few decades ago. Some cover cropping is happening but a long way to go here for large scale farming. Still....regenerative ag practices as promoted by the extension offices are no where near main stream. I suppose if it can be proven to pay off financially....more farmers will drift in that direction.

Agree 100%.

 

[CarolinaDawg]

It has been a while since I limed so I took some soil samples last week and sent them off to VT. I talked to my neighbor who is a beginning small commercial farmer and he said he was having a hard time finding lime. We have several local quarries. He said they had shut down in Dec. He was finally able to get a dump truck load but didn't realize he needed a lime buggy to spread it. When I chatted with the coop manager, he confirmed they have no lime on hand like usual. They are spreading it for folks as it becomes available. He said that most folks around here all want it spread in the spring and that by summer it should be readily available, so it looks like I'll hold off and spread before the fall plant.

When I asked about gly he said the shortage was pretty bad. He expects to begin to see it delivered in the next couple weeks but they won't even price it until it is shipped. Based on looking at on-line prices I'm expecting to see it run around $1,000 for a 30 gal drum. For the last few years, I've been mainly using interline (Liberty generic) for burn-down with a little gly added to it. I was able to order it from Rural King for $99 for a 2 1/2 gal jug. Now Rural King no longer ships it and says it is "in-store only". We only have one RK in reasonable driving distance and it and even those further way show it out of stock. On-line prices at other places are closer to $280 for 2 1/2 gal. When I do the math, even at $1,000 gly is about 1/2 the cost on a per acre basis.

How do these things look in other areas?

Thanks,

Jack

All of my plots were conventional tilled for decades. I’m only entering year 2 of no-till, so my soil still has a long way to go from a biology and nutrient standpoint - Ph is good. Having said that, there’s enough data out there to give me confidence that I will likely never spend money on K fertilizer again. And if I do add nitrogen, it’ll be in at least two small doses. Adding it all at once is a huge waste of money. I’m also going to be a lot more weed tolerant this year than I have been (I’m talking about true weeds)

 

[yoderjac]

I stayed up late anticipating and hoping for your response but I gave up too soon. I found I couldn't sleep. I will neither agree or disagree with your position although you might want to reconsider some of your assertions - or at least your phrasing of them. You have a mission that you ae tightly attached to and I strongly encourage you to continue that mission. Hope springs eternal.

Frankly, I'm appalled at the apparent amount of money "we" spend doing food plots. As you've found and elevated to a high level, doing habitat "improvement" provides benefits far exceeding any other deer management activity.

But let me ask, why start a thread on input shortages if we don't need any?

I didn't say we don't need any inputs. I still believe getting the pH right with lime helps many plants update the nutrients regardless if they are cycled or come from commercial fertilizer. Also, I still use gly to help reduce tillage although I am using it less frequently these days. If you look at my initial post, both Lime and Gly were the inputs I was specifically referring to. Having said that, I know others still use other inputs and decided to keep the title a little more broad as many inputs are experiencing higher prices and shortages.

Thanks,

Jack

 

[yoderjac]

All of my plots were conventional tilled for decades. I’m only entering year 2 of no-till, so my soil still has a long way to go from a biology and nutrient standpoint - Ph is good. Having said that, there’s enough data out there to give me confidence that I will likely never spend money on K fertilizer again. And if I do add nitrogen, it’ll be in at least two small doses. Adding it all at once is a huge waste of money. I’m also going to be a lot more weed tolerant this year than I have been (I’m talking about true weeds)

The key for me has been a significant use of legumes as a source of N. It does take time for soil to heal and it depends a lot on the soil. Rich fertile soils can take a lot of tillage abuse and still be productive for lifetimes. The more marginal our soils, the longer it take to recover. I grew up in strip mine country with no topsoil. They were eyesores for many, many, years, but eventually nature seems to heal itself.

 

[Hoytvectrix]

There's a $15/ac rebate on your crop insurance premium if you cover crop. Might help put a few guys over the hump.

Indigo and other carbon market makers have better rates and have support for making sure the practice changes happen. My company is attempting to de-risk cover crop adoption by offering a warranty on top of Indigo et al.'s carbon payments. I personally don't have a dog in the fight but am closely linked to the carbon industry in my current job and did graduate work on soil carbon and nitrogen cycling in soil. This is definitely something that is taking off in the industry and I would say the global happenings the past two years are encouraging if not forcing adoption.

 

[FarmerDan]

Further, who's "bending" who?

Displease mother Nature( excessive tillage,pesticides,chemicals) and she will bend you(over)

She graciously allows success when we work with her

bill

And she will take back what is hers if you don't convince her to do otherwise. Or was that about my ex-wife(s)?