Coronavirus

[roymunson]

My accountant sent me that information yesterday---I declined any loan/gift and told him that businesses applying for free money isn't going to help anything. It will only cause more problems. My business is still open and employing our workers just like we always have. I don't want to take advantage like so many will. If you NEED it then go for it otherwise you are no different than the worthless bastards that could work but choose not to work because they can get everything free. I absolutely have a problem with people that choose to be worthless.

My accountant just called, his understanding, and maybe he just hasn't dug into it far enough, but it's not a loan, its a bailout. It's not owed back after this is all said and done. And supposedly it's going to be available even to the companies that haven't shut down or cut back. There's no way that can be real.

Also, just had that conversation today with family. I know some folks who made a really good W2 income the last 4-5 years when things were banging. New mini vans for mom, new cummins for dad, expnsive remodels, and borrowed to the hilt for them. Now that they can't work, i'm supposed to help them and feel sorry for them when I lived within my means and stuck 6 months away for a time like this? That's a tough pill to swallow.

Yet at the end of this, somehow, i'll be the evil, greedy person.

 

[Howboutthemdawgs]

My accountant just called, his understanding, and maybe he just hasn't dug into it far enough, but it's not a loan, its a bailout. It's not owed back after this is all said and done. And supposedly it's going to be available even to the companies that haven't shut down or cut back. There's no way that can be real.

Also, just had that conversation today with family. I know some folks who made a really good W2 income the last 4-5 years when things were banging. New mini vans for mom, new cummins for dad, expnsive remodels, and borrowed to the hilt for them. Now that they can't work, i'm supposed to help them and feel sorry for them when I lived within my means and stuck 6 months away for a time like this? That's a tough pill to swallow.

Yet at the end of this, somehow, i'll be the evil, greedy person.

I’m not arguing I’m just curious what help somebody with a really healthy W-2 is getting out of this? Call my situation whatever you will but I know I’m not getting a dollar due to income level and if this goes on a long time I will be in the same painful situation as someone who doesn’t make as much. Why don’t I get help?

 

[Buckly]

Some of the stimulus will be loans and some of those loans may turn into grants as I understand it. So some will have to be paid back and some won’t. I can see a lot of confusion on this before it even gets started. As far as having a healthy W2 , well that’s correct your not going to get anything. At least not in this phase.

 

[Bill]

right. It’s weird cause I have no idea what to believe anymore. One part of me thinks we need to take it very seriously and then I see or hear something that says it’s all hysteria.

Sitting in NJ right now I’d say. Yeah, pay attention.

But as for the #’s I’m still with you there. Predicting 100k to 240K deaths might be over stated. If you make that prediction and it turns out more die, well you’re an idiot. But if you make that prediction and it was really high and less die, you did a biggly fantastic job at curtailing this thing.

 

[Buckly]

Do you remember back in school when they graded on a curve. Throw out the high and the low and then you have your average. Same here, throw out NY on the high and throw out Ohio on the low and you have your average. Right now they’re basing models on just the high. That’s my opinion anyway.

 

[chickenlittle]

100K looks low. The number of confirmed cases hasn't been slowing fast enough. Deaths rate probably lag the case rate some. The number of US deaths is doubling every 2-3 days. That puts 100k deaths only a couple weeks out unless things start slowing dramatically.

 

[Tree Spud]

My accountant just called, his understanding, and maybe he just hasn't dug into it far enough, but it's not a loan, its a bailout. It's not owed back after this is all said and done. And supposedly it's going to be available even to the companies that haven't shut down or cut back. There's no way that can be real.

Also, just had that conversation today with family. I know some folks who made a really good W2 income the last 4-5 years when things were banging. New mini vans for mom, new cummins for dad, expnsive remodels, and borrowed to the hilt for them. Now that they can't work, i'm supposed to help them and feel sorry for them when I lived within my means and stuck 6 months away for a time like this? That's a tough pill to swallow.

Yet at the end of this, somehow, i'll be the evil, greedy person.

My accountant sent me that information yesterday---I declined any loan/gift and told him that businesses applying for free money isn't going to help anything. It will only cause more problems. My business is still open and employing our workers just like we always have. I don't want to take advantage like so many will. If you NEED it then go for it otherwise you are no different than the worthless bastards that could work but choose not to work because they can get everything free. I absolutely have a problem with people that choose to be worthless.

I would suggest you both fire your accountants right now, they are giving you bad advice. If they are CPA's, they cannot give advice and consult, against the law. They can only account & measure your financials. That is why good firms have 2 divisions, accounting, and financial management.

Talk to your banker who you have a loan on your business (building, machinery, etc) and line of credit with. The SBA PPP is going through the banks, but backed by the SBA. It is a loan designed to insure small business' keep from laying off employees. It is also a loan, that could have portions forgiven, but specific requirements exist ... you have to retain employees & maintain a payroll.

I really chafe at times by the misinformation here ... easy to be a brave fool and go down with the ship, better to maybe ask for help and live to fight another day ...

 

[BuckSutherland]

I was watching an infectious disease expert on TV. He claimed he treated like 70-75 covid 19 patients. Of the first 30 or so he treated around 20 of them needed to be intabated (put on ventilator). All rest of his patients they put them on hydroxycholoquine and z pack for up to 5 days and they didnt have to intabate a single one of them. He thought the statistical probability of that was like .000001. He called it a game changer and the beginning of the end of the pandemic. His words, not mine.


Dr. Stephen Smith, Infectious Disease Specialist in Roseland, NJ.


I'm just the messenger to what he said. Please God let it work. I'm still a skeptic until it being repeated all over the country.


Found this too:
https://www.nytimes.com/2020/04/01/health/hydroxychloroquine-coronavirus-malaria.html

 

[Bill]

I would suggest you both fire your accountants right now, they are giving you bad advice. If they are CPA's, they cannot give advice and consult, against the law. They can only account & measure your financials. That is why good firms have 2 divisions, accounting, and financial management.

Talk to your banker who you have a loan on your business (building, machinery, etc) and line of credit with. The SBA PPP is going through the banks, but backed by the SBA. It is a loan designed to insure small business' keep from laying off employees. It is also a loan, that could have portions forgiven, but specific requirements exist ... you have to retain employees & maintain a payroll.

I really chafe at times by the lack of knowledge here at times ... easy to be a brave fool and go down with the ship, better to maybe ask for help and live to fight another day ...

I agree. Do what “you”should to survive as a business. But don’t take advantage. My wife and I are retired. We have a business renting 1 and 2 bedroom apartments weekly at the beach in NJ. “Key” is we’re retired, and “diversified”, This business won’t make or break us, it’s what we like to do.

We started sending out checks today to customers as a refund for the $ they put down as a deposit to hold their vacation week. We aren’t holding any cancellation fee, if you booked with us you get 100% back. We felt many could use that $ for other things right now. We’re also holding their weeks in case things break and they want to come this summer. (Ha, Ha, like anyone will want to vacation in NJ this summer)

because of our tax filing situation we’re going to be getting a stimulus check. We’re planning on giving that to the woman that helps us with cleaning and kinda doesn’t tell anyone she does. So she won’t get one....

 

[cavey]

100K looks low. The number of confirmed cases hasn't been slowing fast enough. Deaths rate probably lag the case rate some. The number of US deaths is doubling every 2-3 days. That puts 100k deaths only a couple weeks out unless things start slowing dramatically.

I think 100K is also really low for the reasons you stated ,,, one can hope but they have been knowingly lying to keep the calm and prevent hoarding from the start... the oh ya now you should wear a mask is another fine example. People want to hear something so you just tell them a magic number and move on.

Just running numbers and cutting them back (being conservative) based on Italy we will easily see 2k a day and should hit 4600 without any difficulty. What should scare everyone is that Europe is getting slammed with only a fraction of its population actually being infected. People can say oh I think I had it last month - I think its just wishful crap ... we never had any of the associated spikes in having to vent patients.
We have 350 million people, even with super conservative numbers and a reduced death rate it will hit hard. And say we hit 70% infected which is what many say we need to hit to slow stop this eventually that still leaves 105 million unaffected to still catch and spread it - Italy has 60 million and its on its knees now. No matter how you do the math it still overwhelms our medical systems. We have normally under a million beds in our hospitals which often run at near capacity under normal conditions. There is just very little room for this sustained additional demand for those beds - plus you need to find additional people to tend any more you create... and the added infrastructure to maintain them. The flu takes 40-60k down each year and during the peak times that alone buries many ER's.

There is nothing good about any of this even if you knock it down to a fraction of what will be happening ... I hope I am wrong but we are just not different from anyone else on this planet ... you can argue demographics but really we are all the same and without aggressive moves it will play out the same here as it is there.

At least we know whats coming...

 

[Buckly]

I’ve never heard of anybody vacationing in NJ. Learn something every day.

 

[BuckSutherland]

My wife is working the ER for the next couple nights. First patient through the door on her shift was a person recently back from Manhattan. Wicked cough, severe shortness of breath and chest pain. Coughing all over her. We also have some serious mental health issues going on in the surrounding area. There was a woman not too far away that executed her BF with the kids in the house cause she freaked out.

She also showed me part of an email that as of Tuesday the MN ministry of health is no longer accepting covid test due to a supply shortage, but that on Wed her hospital is gonna start testing 64 a day and by next week be up to 165. I think that might be for all of the health partners hospitals combined, but im not sure. She just snap shot and sent it to me and hasn't responded. They need to get their shit together on this testing. Its the only way we will ever know how much of it is out there.

 

[IkemanTx]

100K looks low. The number of confirmed cases hasn't been slowing fast enough. Deaths rate probably lag the case rate some. The number of US deaths is doubling every 2-3 days. That puts 100k deaths only a couple weeks out unless things start slowing dramatically.

It can take 2-3 weeks to die from CoVid19 complications, so I suspect you are right. These things are bell curves, but no one wants to hear that. Case curves are first, then death curves, and finally recovery curves.

All I know is hospitals in my are are finally starting to see big spikes in CoVid19 hospitalizations. Several deaths already, and case numbers growing almost exponentially. I think it’s 6-18 months until this has burned through the whole of the country, but hopefully I’m wrong. Mostly because my airline might have to drop me from the payroll if it goes that far.

Also, most early modeling came from data China released.... that has since been proven to be horse shit. They have been running crematoriums 24 hours a day to keep up with the numbers of dead. None of them we’re reported in the official numbers, though, so the world wasn’t properly prepared.
Since then, the modeling has been amended based on US and Italy numbers. Our guys continue to update the models on a daily basis, so they should get more and more accurate over the next couple weeks as the cases come to a head.

Either way, this thing will be 4-10 times worse than a normal flu season at a minimum. At a maximum, this thing kills a quarter million Americans.


Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk

 

[OakSeeds]

Excellent post ....

I think 100K is also really low for the reasons you stated ,,, one can hope but they have been knowingly lying to keep the calm and prevent hoarding from the start... the oh ya now you should wear a mask is another fine example."
"Just running numbers and cutting them back (being conservative) based on Italy we will easily see 2k a day and should hit 4600 without any difficulty. What should scare everyone is that Europe is getting slammed with only a fraction of its population actually being infected.
"We have 350 million people, even with super conservative numbers and a reduced death rate it will hit hard. And say we hit 70% infected which is what many say we need to hit to slow stop this eventually that still leaves 105 million unaffected to still catch and spread it - Italy has 60 million and its on its knees now. No matter how you do the math it still overwhelms our medical systems. We have normally under a million beds in our hospitals which often run at near capacity under normal conditions. There is just very little room for this sustained additional demand for those beds - plus you need to find additional people to tend any more you create... and the added infrastructure to maintain them. The flu takes 40-60k down each year and during the peak times that alone buries many ER's. At least we know whats coming...

67 pages later, someone has tried to explain why the death estimates have been ratcheted up considerably. A healthy discussion about this issue might have occurred much earlier in the thread if folks didn't jump to conclusions so fast. Please allow me to demonstrate from a personal standpoint. The obvious problem ofr the internet!

Early in the thread ... I offered ....
Post 611
Again, the rapidity with which this virus can explode within the general population might easily infect more persons with hospital-necessary care than our medical facilities can handle (would probably push up the mortality rate at least above 3-4%). Here's a little math problem for you; what's 4% of 50 million infected persons? If you said 2,000,000 you win the prize.
1175
Let's estimate there are probably at least 70M Americans over 60 years of age in 2020. If only persons over 60 were killed by the virus (after all, everyone knows it only kills senior citizens (sarcasm), and if disease-surges overwhelm the health care systems of several states, is a death rate of 2.5% unrealistic? Heck it's only 1.75 Million Parents and Grandparents! A 5% mortality rate would be only 3.5 Million old folks!

How did folks respond?
Some suggested I didn't know what I was talking about ........ ....

1114 Bucky ”millions to die”. That discredits just about anything you say. There are no such numbers mentioned by any Country in the World. Some of these earlier infected Countries are already ramping their economies back up. By the way it’s the States not Trump who are making these stay at home deals. So he’s not lifting them. The Governors will be and even the epicenter Governor is on board.

1125 Bucky “In NYC the epicenter right now there’s been less than 300 deaths In 3 weeks. In NYC. 400-500 people a day die for other reasons. That’s a total of 10,000 people over the last 3 weeks as opposed to less than 300 for the 3 week period. This is the epicenter.

1186 Buck S said essentially I was nuts
I gotta call you out oak cause this post is about as dramatic and over the top as you can possibly get.

1198 Fred G said my boat would sink

1214 Chummer said I should listen more … called me essentially a trump hater

1215 Roy said I picked on the gentleman “ who called me out” Told me I should admit when I’m wrong
Incidentally ... I did!
post 1193 1. 68.7% of the US population IS NOT over the age of 60 in 2016. My late night calulation was an initial attempt to
frame this post in relation to ksgobblers post on % of population over 60 ...I goofed; however, .....

1223 Buck SW hit me again … Told me I was reckless
"Sorry, I dont agree with your morbid assessment of 2.5-5% of all grandmas and grandpas will die Oakseeds.
3.5 million dead is not based on any type of facts at all, instead just reckless speculations.
It is the worst, of the worst, of the worst case scenario. That's the only way to get to that number.

My response to all this ... 1249 You are certainly entitled to your opinion ... I'll respectfully stick with mine we'll know when it's over.

 

[4wanderingeyes]

Here in MN, hospitals are cutting nurses hours, laying them off, and closing off sections of hospitals. With no elective surgeries happening, they have nothing to do. We have like 58 people hospitalized with it, and yet the media is saying the hospitals are overwhelemed and over worked, and under staffed. Things just dont add up.

 

[Bill]

Here in MN, hospitals are cutting nurses hours, laying them off, and closing off sections of hospitals. With no elective surgeries happening, they have nothing to do. We have like 58 people hospitalized with it, and yet the media is saying the hospitals are overwhelemed and over worked, and under staffed. Things just dont add up.

My step sister is a home care nurse that cares for post surgery patients. Since we’re not doing surgery’s to keep beds available she and 750 other nurses, Doc’s and admin were furloughed yesterday.

 

[4wanderingeyes]

The middle of February I had a sinus surgery done, because my sinus's were always plugged. The healing time was suppose to be 2 weeks, well that brought me to a time when I was going on vacation for 10 days. My sinus's are still plugged, and I cant get in to see the dr, or surgeon about the problem. The office just has a phone recording that they are not excepting patients at this time, and if it is an emergency to call 911.

 

[BuckSutherland]

Here in MN, hospitals are cutting nurses hours, laying them off, and closing off sections of hospitals. With no elective surgeries happening, they have nothing to do. We have like 58 people hospitalized with it, and yet the media is saying the hospitals are overwhelemed and over worked, and under staffed. Things just dont add up.

Wife works in Hutchinson ER. Last night was crazy busy. She got home a bit ago. They intabated 48 yo male and shipped him to methadist in the city. EVERYONE that came in is suspect covid 19. They only have so much protective gear to go around. It takes special certification to run vent machine and very few have it. Trying to save as much as they can to fight the covid and limit exposure.

 

[4wanderingeyes]

I understand the er and ICU departments will probably be busy, but why dont the other nurses start training, and getting certified, or atleast stick around and help as much as possible?

 

[chummer]

Excellent post ....



67 pages later, someone has tried to explain why the death estimates have been ratcheted up considerably. A healthy discussion about this issue might have occurred much earlier in the thread if folks didn't jump to conclusions so fast. Please allow me to demonstrate from a personal standpoint. The obvious problem ofr the internet!

Early in the thread ... I offered ....
Post 611
Again, the rapidity with which this virus can explode within the general population might easily infect more persons with hospital-necessary care than our medical facilities can handle (would probably push up the mortality rate at least above 3-4%). Here's a little math problem for you; what's 4% of 50 million infected persons? If you said 2,000,000 you win the prize.
1175
Let's estimate there are probably at least 70M Americans over 60 years of age in 2020. If only persons over 60 were killed by the virus (after all, everyone knows it only kills senior citizens (sarcasm), and if disease-surges overwhelm the health care systems of several states, is a death rate of 2.5% unrealistic? Heck it's only 1.75 Million Parents and Grandparents! A 5% mortality rate would be only 3.5 Million old folks!

How did folks respond?
Some suggested I didn't know what I was talking about ........ ....

1114 Bucky ”millions to die”. That discredits just about anything you say. There are no such numbers mentioned by any Country in the World. Some of these earlier infected Countries are already ramping their economies back up. By the way it’s the States not Trump who are making these stay at home deals. So he’s not lifting them. The Governors will be and even the epicenter Governor is on board.

1125 Bucky “In NYC the epicenter right now there’s been less than 300 deaths In 3 weeks. In NYC. 400-500 people a day die for other reasons. That’s a total of 10,000 people over the last 3 weeks as opposed to less than 300 for the 3 week period. This is the epicenter.

1186 Buck S said essentially I was nuts
I gotta call you out oak cause this post is about as dramatic and over the top as you can possibly get.

1198 Fred G said my boat would sink

1214 Chummer said I should listen more … called me essentially a trump hater

1215 Roy said I picked on the gentleman “ who called me out” Told me I should admit when I’m wrong
Incidentally ... I did!
post 1193 1. 68.7% of the US population IS NOT over the age of 60 in 2016. My late night calulation was an initial attempt to
frame this post in relation to ksgobblers post on % of population over 60 ...I goofed; however, .....

1223 Buck SW hit me again … Told me I was reckless
"Sorry, I dont agree with your morbid assessment of 2.5-5% of all grandmas and grandpas will die Oakseeds.
3.5 million dead is not based on any type of facts at all, instead just reckless speculations.
It is the worst, of the worst, of the worst case scenario. That's the only way to get to that number.

My response to all this ... 1249 You are certainly entitled to your opinion ... I'll respectfully stick with mine we'll know when it's over.

This is why you come across as a douche. You made a comment about Trump giving foreign countries bail out money through the cruise lines, and how we liked our transparency. That was completely false and in your head. That is why I told you to listen better. In case you didn’t know, because you know everything the cruise lines are still not getting anything.