Excellent post ....
67 pages later, someone has tried to explain why the death estimates have been ratcheted up considerably. A healthy discussion about this issue might have occurred much earlier in the thread if folks didn't jump to conclusions so fast. Please allow me to demonstrate from a personal standpoint. The obvious problem ofr the internet!
Early in the thread ... I offered ....
Post 611
Again, the rapidity with which this virus can explode within the general population might easily infect more persons with hospital-necessary care than our medical facilities can handle (would probably push up the mortality rate at least above 3-4%). Here's a little math problem for you; what's 4% of 50 million infected persons? If you said 2,000,000 you win the prize.
1175
Let's estimate there are probably at least 70M Americans over 60 years of age in 2020. If only persons over 60 were killed by the virus (after all, everyone knows it only kills senior citizens (sarcasm), and if disease-surges overwhelm the health care systems of several states, is a death rate of 2.5% unrealistic? Heck it's only 1.75 Million Parents and Grandparents! A 5% mortality rate would be only 3.5 Million old folks!
How did folks respond?
Some suggested I didn't know what I was talking about ........ ....
1114 Bucky ”millions to die”. That discredits just about anything you say. There are no such numbers mentioned by any Country in the World. Some of these earlier infected Countries are already ramping their economies back up. By the way it’s the States not Trump who are making these stay at home deals. So he’s not lifting them. The Governors will be and even the epicenter Governor is on board.
1125 Bucky “In NYC the epicenter right now there’s been less than 300 deaths In 3 weeks. In NYC. 400-500 people a day die for other reasons. That’s a total of 10,000 people over the last 3 weeks as opposed to less than 300 for the 3 week period. This is the epicenter.
1186 Buck S said essentially I was nuts
I gotta call you out oak cause this post is about as dramatic and over the top as you can possibly get.
1198 Fred G said my boat would sink
1214 Chummer said I should listen more … called me essentially a trump hater
1215 Roy said I picked on the gentleman “ who called me out” Told me I should admit when I’m wrong
Incidentally ... I did!
post 1193 1. 68.7% of the US population IS NOT over the age of 60 in 2016. My late night calulation was an initial attempt to
frame this post in relation to ksgobblers post on % of population over 60 ...I goofed; however, .....
1223 Buck SW hit me again … Told me I was reckless
"Sorry, I dont agree with your morbid assessment of 2.5-5% of all grandmas and grandpas will die Oakseeds.
3.5 million dead is not based on any type of facts at all, instead just reckless speculations.
It is the worst, of the worst, of the worst case scenario. That's the only way to get to that number.
My response to all this ... 1249 You are certainly entitled to your opinion ... I'll respectfully stick with mine we'll know when it's over.