I'll couple this post with earlier posts about Chicago; and some may recognize why testing is sooooo important. The H1N1 mortality rate from the example in H2O's post was .02% (12,469 divided by 60.8 million and less than the approximate mortality rate of .10 for 40,000 flu deaths in a bad year / (40,000 deaths divided by divided by 35 million infected persons), while the mortality rate for covid-19 - in the example above - is 2.85% (38 divided by known infected cases of 1329 ... probably the mortality rate would be lower if more testing revealed the true number of infected persons); however, covid-19 is way more infectious than many other viruses. Now, where does Chicago fit in .... today (3-13) it was announced that Illinois (most cases in/around Chicago) has a confirmed 48 cases of Covid-19 WITH 16 new cases reported today. That means there were 36 cases yesterday AND a 50% increase in 24 hours! What do you suppose it will be tomorrow or in 2 weeks; wonder why the IL Gov closed all schools (public and private) today? The State of NY is on the same trajectory as Italy ... good luck if they can't slow the spread of the virus ... and don't say you won't see it in your area ... most will just get it later (like the rest of western Europe after Italy). Again, the rapidity with which this virus can explode within the general population might easily infect more persons with hospital-necessary care than our medical facilities can handle (would probably push up the mortality rate at least above 3-4%). Here's a little math problem for you; what's 4% of 50 million infected persons? If you said 2,000,000 you win the prize. The best scientific minds in our country want large scale testing to determine hot spots and garner epidemologyical information about this completely new virus. Finally, restricting persons from other countries where the virus is present and employing social-distance techniques (no large gatherings, closing schools, churches and businesses, and asking people to limit the time they spend in the public arena) are the ONLY tools - at this time to combat the rapid spread of this disease. Walk into any grocery store in an urban area and the empty shelves will tell you the American public is now starting to understand the magnitude of the problem.
The article below - while comparing covid-19 with the seasonal flu - has some information about other viruses - and does provide some good information about the danger of spikes in the infection rate that might overwhelm our health system. Don't get hung up on the potential politics of the publisher .... article is great for helping us to understand what covid-19 is all about; hope it gives you pause to keep yourself and loved ones safe as possible.
https://www.vox.com/science-and-hea...ovid-19-coronavirus-worse-than-flu-comparison
