Alsheimer's rut predictions

[bueller]

I know many say that he is full of crap (and he very well could be) but at the least I always find it interesting to watch his predictions before and after the season to compare what I observed. Seems like many including myself haven't seen the traditional early November rut activity. Our rifle season opens Saturday which according to Charlie is the best weekend to hunt the rut this year.

 

[bueller]

 

[bueller]

 

[Tree Spud]

The rut was building from 11/2. 11/5,6,7,8 was the peak. . The secodary rut will be 12/4.

NoFo ... What do you base that on?

 

[bueller]

For sake of argument we didn't see any rut activity while hunting on the 4th, 5th, 6th, 11th, 12th and 13th. Lots of cameras running 24 hours a day showed very little rut activity also. Cameras did catch a small buck chasing a doe around on the 5th and a couple daytime shots of the same mature buck on the 5th and 10th but that's it. No influx of new bucks and no real photos/video of hot rut activity.

Nofo, I wonder if your high population creates a different rut compared to lower population areas like mine. Heck if you have a hundred doe around on 11/6 odds are some of them will be hot. I'd be lucky to have a handful of doe around. Not to mention the competition between bucks for those doe in a high population area vs an area like mine where mature bucks are far and few between.

I'm not saying I'm all in on uncle Charlie's predictions but I do find it interesting to read/watch and compare to real life experiences.

 

[Tree Spud]

My own eyes hunting the same dirt for 42 years. 3 of us were hunting 11/2-8 this year. We all passed multiple mature bucks and all tagged out. Mine was 11/4, then 11/6 and11/8. Since then the rut activity is way down. Jim Miller from Iola taught me this 25 years ago. When you fly in 2,000 miles and your year is 12 sits you have to get it right. I killed mine 10 minutes into the 4th sit. ]The rut will vary by latitude.Doe in heat is triggered by amount of daylight and nothing else. Sorry Charlie, I feel sorry for the guys that buy in to his malarkey. My Moms backyard in Ozaukee county is going off right now but thats way south. The peak rut in southern cal is 9/20, in south Texas its 12/25.

Thanks, so you don't consider other factors such as moon or others? I know that the reducing daylight has a lots to do with their internal biological clock relative to breeding.

For the last 15+ years, I always see at least 1 mature buck the 3rd weekend in Oct on the move seeking during mid afternoon. Last weekend of Oct seeking activity picks up and I would agree that 1st weekend of Nov 4-9 typically activity peaks.

If I have not taken a buck by the 1st weekend of Nov, the second weekend is real hit and miss. Some bucks are locked down on a hot doe and daytime activity is low.

This past weekend I sat 4 hours each day Nov 10-13 and all I got was a sore butt & stiff back. On Sat afternoon, I saw 1 doe & 1 spike and we have a pretty high density property. Then again I have become more selective and passed on several nice 3.5 year olds.

 

[Tree Spud]

We have taken dozens of book bow bucks. 2 in sept and the rest were 10/25-11/11. Record every py buck date of kill from your county and you will see the best 5 days spanning 80 years.

Does P&Y record that info?

 

[yoderjac]

I met him at a seminar where we both spoke years ago. Charles is a very smart guy with a passion for deer. I think the idea of trying to correlate moon phase with the rut was a very worthwhile effort. The rut is governed by hormones and they are governed by the amount of light entering the pineal gland. That is pretty sound science. The question is whether the amount of reflected light from the moon has enough impact to allow for an accurate prediction based on moon phase. I don't think the data supports that theory. I'm sure there is some effect. The problem is that there are effects from local weather and other local factors that also influence breeding.

I will say I find the predictions interesting and I especially enjoy reading his articles and columns. He is a great photographer and a true student of deer.

Thanks,

Jack

 

[Knehrke]

I grew up next to Charlie. One of my buddy's Dad used to be a model for his photo shoots. Even predicting the rut right next door, Charlie sometimes hits and sometimes misses. I appreciate his thoughtful insights and analysis, though. Great guy, great writer, and a heck of a speaker.

Just for the record, he predicted several mini-ruts culminating with a grand finale on the supermoon this year. That's what I experienced; we're currently in lockdown. I think that anytime different folks discuss the rut there's potential confusion with terminology and different phases. "The rut" doesn't always coincide with the most visible activity, local conditions can sway timing, and one person's experience can't be uniformly generalized.

Or, you can just hunt the second week of November and generally have a really good chance of scoring :)

 

[MoBuckChaser]

I don't care who is or is not predicting the rut. I have not seen it this year. I spend a lot of time in the woods this time of year and every year. Been on the stand since the 25th of oct. Not many deer moving and the ones that are, all under 130". Its been so hot here, maybe it was all done at night during the first week of Nov, which would be normal here in NW MO. Sat for 6 hrs this morning, saw 2, 120" bucks an hour apart and they were just standing around when they should be running after another doe. No acorns here, has maybe shifted them to another food source, that may account for part of the problem. But they still have to show up in the bedding areas at some time, and it has not happened if front of my eyes, I have been staring at Red Cedars for 3 fricken weeks! I usually post dozens of good buck videos, I have nothing, and thats after having 10 bucks over 130 on trail camera earlier. I just pulled 8 chips after a 5 day soak, only 2 small bucks on film. Something is up, I just don't know what it is....

 

[Bill]

Pretty much the same 80 miles east!

 

[MoBuckChaser]

And the Bastards are still walking into the yard at night rubbing this piss out of my Cedar! While I am sitting at the table. They are just not an the move!

 

[Bill]

Has your ag/foodplot mix changed? Yotes? Coon hunters?

Not Mo but I'm 80 miles east. No notable changes in the environment here. I've had butts in stands since 10/29. Very little visible rut activity. Some bumping 10/31 - 11/1. Then nothing but squirts acting like they do.

Yesterday I saw 2 1/2 year olds bumping does in the afternoon. 7 bucks in a small corn stubble field playing pinball with them. The biggest a 3 year old ok 130ish inch buck stayed on the side lines and watched.

Maybe it did all happen after dark because of heat. Based on history they should be locked down now or real soon but where did the fun part go?

I'm making lemonade, if Mo and I are seeing the same thing so are my neighbors. Which means the deer aren't charging haplessly into the orange army and maybe more will make it another year.

Very little shooting near me for opening weekend.

 

[SIL hunter]

My son, my friend and I were down at our hunting ground(southern IL) last weekend 11-13, one of us saw a nice buck every hunt except Sunday night.
My friend had 4 bucks chasing a doe Friday morning, 2 bucks chasing a doe Friday evening in a different spot, I had a big 10 follow a doe across a food plot I could see- step for step and stand and watch while she ate, the rest of the bucks were just cruising. Hope they are still moving Friday when the 1187 comes along!

 

[Bill]

My son, my friend and I were down at our hunting ground(southern IL) last weekend 11-13, one of us saw a nice buck every hunt except Sunday night.
My friend had 4 bucks chasing a doe Friday morning, 2 bucks chasing a doe Friday evening in a different spot, I had a big 10 follow a doe across a food plot I could see- step for step and stand and watch while she ate, the rest of the bucks were just cruising. Hope they are still moving Friday when the 1187 comes along!

Well if happened in ill it happened here just after dark.

My cal buddy flew into mo. And killed this one on 11/11.

MDC reported higher kill than last year over the weekend. But I haven't seen the doe,to buck breakdown

 

[Bigshooter19]

My cal buddy flew into mo. And killed this one on 11/11.

Need another hunting buddy?

 

[Bowsnbucks]

From Pa. - We had guys sitting in tree stands from the 20th of October until 11-12 and nobody saw any hard chasing. We compare notes every night after coming in and we didn't hear any chasing in the woods, which we usually do, even if we don't actually see the deer. We did see bucks walking after does, but not with any real FIRE in them.

We have some acorns, but not everywhere as in some years. Food plots look great and rubs are around all over. Scrapes are fairly numerous. No mid-day chasing as in other years. Very different rut this year, regardless of anyone's predictions.

 

[Native Hunter]

My trail cameras show me when peak buck daylight movement is at rut time.

Last year it was November 7 with decent movement just either side.

This year it was November 4 with decent movement just either side.

Mature buck chasing started here this year around October 29. The only bucks attempting to chase right now are very young. They don't know its over.

One of our two "resident" old bucks did walk through a plot in daylight two days ago. I was watching but didn't shoot because the season is still young. My son had to go back to work tomorrow, so he took a 3 year old today. That deer was eating - recovering from the rut instead of rutting.....

Due to my job being so demanding I basically quit bow hunting a few years ago and only hunt gun and ML right now. But, I do plan on starting back when retiring. If I'm going to hunt peak here, it will have to be in bow season, because peak is always over by the time our gun season starts. That doesn't mean you can't see some decent action at times, but you always miss the best........

 

[swat1018]

And the Bastards are still walking into the yard at night rubbing this piss out of my Cedar! While I am sitting at the table. They are just not an the move!

I feel better, I am had same luck on my farms, Lewis/Knox counties.

 

[bigeight]

I spent the 4th - the 11th about 20 miles from MoBuckChasers place this year. Other than the much warmer than average temperatures during that time frame, the rut was definitely going on good. It was however only going on the coldest hours of the day because of the 70 degree day temps. We seen some bucks during the middle of the day, but not nearly as much movement as what I usually see from the hours of 10-2. Usually I base my hunting around cold fronts, but was unable to do that because of the travel and scheduling aspects.
I agree with NoFo that rut is about the same every year, but the temperatures will play a bigger role on how much of it happens during daylight for everyone to see. High temps, and this stinking "super moon" has a lot of the rut hidden at night. They are doing their thing for sure.
I believe if it was mid - low 40's for highs during the day people would be saying the rut was in full swing the first week of November.