2023 Deer Season Forecast

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This is the 6th season on our property, and I have never seen so many young bucks on camera based on a review of previous year photos. I am getting shows on every camera, and have counted 10 different yearling bucks on our 85 acres). I anticipate the maternal does are kicking these bucks out as they drop prepare to drop fawns. Regardless, the number of young bucks on camera is surprising. So, here is my forecast for my 2023 season, which I will guarantee to have"Accuweather 14-day Forecast reliability!" (translation: meaningless).

* Early bow season: Kids & grandkids will have an opportunity to harvest a first archery buck, I will have opportunity to harvest a doe for the "first freezer fill."
* October White Acorn drop: Could be interesting...target bucks come out of the ridges onto our property...50/50 chance of burning a landowner buck tag.
* Firearms season: Young bucks will disperse, but rut action should result in at least a good buck sighting. Kids or grandkids will harvest something.
* Alternative (muzzle loader) season: Harvest of a buck en route to late season food plot. 100% chance of heartbreak based on previous years.

Kids and grandkids: One "any deer" and one "doe"
Me: One doe and a 50/50 chance on a hit lister
Total Harvest: 3.5

 

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Midseason Update:
So far the May forecast has been somewhat accurate. An early season doe on October 7th was followed by a November 4th archery buck that used up my second Landowner tag, and my only Archery buck tag. However, this was not a "hit lister" as forecast, rather it was a 2 1/2 year old that played the part perfectly, responding to a rattle and grunt using some passages through the (dare I say it) the hing-cuts leading into a soy/clover plot that was drilled into NWSG back on September 9th. While this harvest was akin to a "forecasted blizzard that turned out to be scattered flurries," I am happy to have harvested the deer primarily due to the previous year's habitat work.



Our kids and grandkids have yet to harvest a deer, but with firearms season coming up, they will be the ones in the stands during the regular season. Hopefully another deer or two will help validate the long-range forecast from back in May.

 

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The long range forecast is looking a little more accurate. During the Mid-November firearms season my son harvested the first deer taken from the south side of the property—a 172# 11 point. Camera sightings of a couple of mature deer along with several 1 1/2 year olds bodes well for the future. To date, two bucks and a doe have been harvested. The goal of one more doe is likely—although the grandkids have permission to take any legal deer.

It will be interesting to see how the CWD zone designation impacts total deer harvest in our area now that the antler point restriction and CWD zone season (which adds one additional “Any Deer” firearm weekend) impact end-of-year numbers. At the 2/3 point of the 2023-24 Deer Season the long-range deer forecast from May is coming to pass.


My son’s first buck, an 11 point weight 172# (live).

 

[356]

This is the 6th season on our property, and I have never seen so many young bucks on camera based on a review of previous year photos. I am getting shows on every camera, and have counted 10 different yearling bucks on our 85 acres). I anticipate the maternal does are kicking these bucks out as they drop prepare to drop fawns. Regardless, the number of young bucks on camera is surprising. So, here is my forecast for my 2023 season, which I will guarantee to have"Accuweather 14-day Forecast reliability!" (translation: meaningless).

* Early bow season: Kids & grandkids will have an opportunity to harvest a first archery buck, I will have opportunity to harvest a doe for the "first freezer fill."
* October White Acorn drop: Could be interesting...target bucks come out of the ridges onto our property...50/50 chance of burning a landowner buck tag.
* Firearms season: Young bucks will disperse, but rut action should result in at least a good buck sighting. Kids or grandkids will harvest something.
* Alternative (muzzle loader) season: Harvest of a buck en route to late season food plot. 100% chance of heartbreak based on previous years.

Kids and grandkids: One "any deer" and one "doe"
Me: One doe and a 50/50 chance on a hit lister
Total Harvest: 3.5

End of Season Review:

We ended up harvesting four deer from the property. In addition to my Oct. 7 doe and Nov. 4 buck, my son harvested his buck on Nov. 18, and my granddaughter harvested her first deer--a doe--on a snowy morning Nov. 26th.

First harvest for my granddaughter

My neighbor harvested my primary "hit list" buck as it was going into our corn field. He is an avid hunter with 15 acres that are truly the best in the area for hunting. I was glad that this deer was harvested by one of our coop members as it was coming off our corn into his bedding area. It was cool that he was able to use an iron sight 30-30 for the harvest.

My neighbor and our target buck.

This was the first year the benefits of our coop were clearly evident. I know of four mature bucks harvested, several younger bucks that were passed, and an increased focus on doe harvests.

On our property, the forecast I did in May turned out to be pretty close, including the "100% chance of heartbreak during muzzleloader season."
Forecast: Kids and grandkids: One "any deer" and one "doe"
Realized: One buck and one doe
Forecast: Me: One doe and a 50/50 chance on a hit lister
Realized: One non-hit list buck, one doe
Forecast: Total Harvest: 3.5
Realized: Total Harvest: 4

In another 4.5 months I'll plan on posting a "2024 Deer Season Forecast."