Stock Market is the bottom in?

[jsasker007]

OK, Now back to reality.

 

[Telemark]

I've been waiting for the SPY to blow like Krakatoa since we swung from maximum stimulative policy to contractionary policy + hyperinflation. I wanted to get set in SPXS to really jack up the return as it went, but just when it looked like all hell was going to finally break loose, it was all suddenly ok the next day.

Nothing ever changes fundamentally, but we swing from "This is the big one!" to the next day the panic is over, despite nothing happening to change the mood. Everyone is a bear right now, but nobody is selling. One of these days we're going to wake up to something really big going under, and that will finally set it off. I just don't know what it will be, or when it'll happen.

It's impossible to say when or if something will cause the big drop. I'm bearish overall, so I'm expecting the short positions to creep up in value over time. I try to short stocks near the peak of one of the rallies, more for my own peace of mind rather than a few extra dollars. We just had a pretty big drop early last week which was good for the index shorts.

I have a couple hundred bucks I use for trying to time the peaks a troughs. It's basically impossible, but it's an interesting exercise. I'm down about 20% on that, but I consider it the cost of the experience/education. It definitely prevents me from trying it with any larger sums.

The real cash is in options, but I'm having a hard time really getting my head around it all. I made 25% in one month on a put on IWM, but I still don't quite understand the nuance of it all. I thought doing it would give me the experience I needed to be more confident with options, but it's still a bit opaque.

Safest thing for me is still just riding the trends, and having a plan. Hopefully I can make decent money on the way down and then buy back in cheap when the dust settles.

 

[bwoods11]

Trump ruined it. Sentiment should be high with Brandon in charge now. Hopefully dems can hang on in the midterms then everything will be great. I feel great knowing they are fighting for me.

Nothing oozes confidence more than stumbles and shaking hands with ghosts !
It’s all Trumps fault !!

 

[SD51555]

It's impossible to say when or if something will cause the big drop. I'm bearish overall, so I'm expecting the short positions to creep up in value over time. I try to short stocks near the peak of one of the rallies, more for my own peace of mind rather than a few extra dollars. We just had a pretty big drop early last week which was good for the index shorts.

I have a couple hundred bucks I use for trying to time the peaks a troughs. It's basically impossible, but it's an interesting exercise. I'm down about 20% on that, but I consider it the cost of the experience/education. It definitely prevents me from trying it with any larger sums.

The real cash is in options, but I'm having a hard time really getting my head around it all. I made 25% in one month on a put on IWM, but I still don't quite understand the nuance of it all. I thought doing it would give me the experience I needed to be more confident with options, but it's still a bit opaque.

Safest thing for me is still just riding the trends, and having a plan. Hopefully I can make decent money on the way down and then buy back in cheap when the dust settles.

Options are about the only place to make some income and get some downside protection right now.


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[Gator]

Rumble finally paying off


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[SD51555]

Mortgage Rates Eclipse 6% for First Time in 14 Years

 

[SD51555]

GNRC peeled off another 10% since I brought it up 5 days ago. Gonna have to keep an eye on that.

 

[Telemark]

Been a great week for me. My shorts are already up 6%, and everything else is up 2.5% for the week. I guess that will probably come down a bit tomorrow, but then I'll consider buying a put Monday morning if the market rebounds substantially.

 

[SD51555]

Been a great week for me. My shorts are already up 6%, and everything else is up 2.5% for the week. I guess that will probably come down a bit tomorrow, but then I'll consider buying a put Monday morning if the market rebounds substantially.

I lost some air pressure with META going down. Energy stocks have given back a little too. Won't be too much longer, we can be picking up tech giant stocks for under 10 P/E's. Perhaps the timing of that has something to do with the pope calling all the assets of the church back to the vatican by September 30th.

 

[S.T.Fanatic]

Microsoft is looking good.

 

[Telemark]

The only stock I have is NEM. But with the dollar so high, I'm not sure it will do much. I have some UUP as a hedge in the mean time.

 

[Telemark]

I lost some air pressure with META going down. Energy stocks have given back a little too. Won't be too much longer, we can be picking up tech giant stocks for under 10 P/E's. Perhaps the timing of that has something to do with the pope calling all the assets of the church back to the vatican by September 30th.

META seems to have been helping the Iranian government crack down on protesters. Expect some volatility the next few days.

 

[SD51555]

META seems to have been helping the Iranian government crack down on protesters. Expect some volatility the next few days.

I figure there's lots of that going on. After the Snowden incident, it didn't seem prudent to keep using the NSA to gather up the data of the globe when they could just have META pull it off everyone's phones with the people's consent.

I sure got yesterday's lunch pushed in on energy today. What a beat down.

 

[Telemark]

I figure there's lots of that going on. After the Snowden incident, it didn't seem prudent to keep using the NSA to gather up the data of the globe when they could just have META pull it off everyone's phones with the people's consent.

I sure got yesterday's lunch pushed in on energy today. What a beat down.

Yeah I dumped the last of my oil stocks about a month ago. I think oil will probably continue to get cheaper as we slide into recession. I'm shorting all the market indexes as well as treasury bonds. I'm bullish on dollars and gold, but the gold gains might take some time to manifest.

 

[b116757]

There is definitely some financial stress for folks out there not like it was during the height of the covid pandemic but most definitely stress. I collect knives mostly Kershaw Blur’s but also Buck knives during the pandemic there where a ridiculous number of Blur’s up for auction many limited runs and hard to find older ones I think I spent somewhere around $3000 during that year just on blur’s I didn’t have or didn’t mind picking up a duplicate at a good price. I have noticed more and more of the rare ones popping up for sale so there is definitely financial stress on lots of folks once again not to the extent I saw during Covid but certainly more than than past year or so. This recession that we the taxpayers are not supposed to know is a recession is definitely starting to impact families in this country negatively already it looks like. Just my antidotal litmus test on the economy but I’ve been collecting for years and the higher numbers of rare ones for sale seems to coincide with hard times. Anyone else started noticing telltale signs?

 

[jsasker007]

I've noticed things started to unravel right around the time we cancelled the keystone pipeline. Then it just kept going to hell but we were told 3.5 trillion equals zero, that's where I was pretty sure we won't turn anything around until about 2024. We might not be a country by then but that's when things should start to improve if there's anyone left. JMO

 

[SD51555]

Bond yields are on the move today. Stocks down / bonds up doesn't seem to be a thing all of a sudden.

The 7% 30-year fixed handle is very close for those with good credit.

I took my medicine on META and dumped it for a loss @ $137. @Telemark your positions have to be trending up nicely. Well done fella.

 

[Telemark]

Bond yields are on the move today. Stocks down / bonds up doesn't seem to be a thing all of a sudden.

The 7% 30-year fixed handle is very close for those with good credit.

I took my medicine on META and dumped it for a loss @ $137. @Telemark your positions have to be trending up nicely. Well done fella.

GLD and NEM are down, but everything else is soaring. I'm itching to buy some puts, but I'm just not 100% confident enough to make a big play on it. I'm spending all my free time reading about put contracts, and I'm feeling it's worth putting up about $1000 to see what happens on a one month contract.

 

[SD51555]

GLD and NEM are down, but everything else is soaring. I'm itching to buy some puts, but I'm just not 100% confident enough to make a big play on it. I'm spending all my free time reading about put contracts, and I'm feeling it's worth putting up about $1000 to see what happens on a one month contract.

That's the tough part. You can be right, but if you're not right at the right time, those things erode and that money is gone. I was trying to do it in the SPXS and I was too early. Had someone the guts to pick it up below $20 five weeks ago, you'd be in lush clover now. There was no reason for markets to trend up back then, and if you entered at $25 and watched it go to $19 in two weeks, that's an ugly 24% drop. Hard to argue when something like that would turn upward, when there was no reason for it to be going down.

 

[SD51555]

"What's important is that in less than a year, the payment on a new $400k mortgage is up at least $1000/month. Many lenders are now quoting top tier 30yr fixed rates over 7%."

Mortgage Rates Now at 20-Year Highs

The most recent historical high water market for mortgage rates was "14 years." It was broken so many times in September that we officially declared it to be boring last Tuesday. Now, less than a week later, 14-year highs would be more exciting than boring. As of mid-day today, we're...

www.mortgagenewsdaily.com

Now it's a showdown between me and Blackrock over the next year or two to see if I get to buy a house at a reasonable price.