Stock Market is the bottom in?

[IkemanTx]

3.5-4 million in 25 years is around 2 million today.

Only if you assume that you stop putting in today. We both have excellent company matches (my wife has a 6.5% and I have a 9.3%) plus my company puts the first 10% of any profit sharing contributions into our B funds. The last 2 years were obviously scarce on the profit sharing, but for most of my 11 years here they have issued 9-14% profit sharing.

If the market averages 9% (below the 10.67% average since 1957) gains over the next 25 years, and I keep my yearly contributions around where they have been the last few years (16K-ish a year combining mine and company), my accounts alone should be right at that 4 mil goal. That would make my wife’s accounts just a buffer.
We are aiming as high as possible because we have zero faith in social security existing by the time we get to retirement.


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[S.T.Fanatic]

How do you know? grin. Plan plans....not results. ....all one can do.

2 million today would be much more that 4 in 25 years. If not you are doing something seriously wrong.

 

[homerj1]

When I said 3.5-4 million in 25 years would be 2 million today, I was trying to say 3.5-4 million in 25 years would be about equivalent in value/buying power to 2 million today. That's only if inflation returns to around 3-4% however.

 

[IkemanTx]

When I said 3.5-4 million in 25 years would be 2 million today, I was trying to say 3.5-4 million in 25 years would be about equivalent in value/buying power to 2 million today. That's only if inflation returns to around 3-4% however.

Ya, that’s why that 4 is the goal instead of the current 2-2.5 recommendation.


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[SD51555]

Neat read in the ZH this morning. My best guess we may be somewhere between denial and fear on this thing. Also an interesting revelation from Target this morning. The stag may be finally joining the 'flation.

Zerohedge

ZeroHedge - On a long enough timeline, the survival rate for everyone drops to zero

www.zerohedge.com

Zerohedge

ZeroHedge - On a long enough timeline, the survival rate for everyone drops to zero

www.zerohedge.com

 

[bwoods11]

The cancer drug from Glaxo SmithKline had some very positive results, might be a stock to look at ...

4.6% dividend as well!

 

[SD51555]

Wait until they get May and June numbers on the board...

Zerohedge

ZeroHedge - On a long enough timeline, the survival rate for everyone drops to zero

www.zerohedge.com

 

[westonwhitetail]

Wait until they get May and June numbers on the board...

Zerohedge

ZeroHedge - On a long enough timeline, the survival rate for everyone drops to zero

www.zerohedge.com

Everyone got used to increased spending with the monthly stimulus and can’t cut back, not good

 

[g squared 23]

Lifestyle creep is tough to avoid. Lefties would rather pay a steep financial price and live with poor leadership, have that old man piss in their face and call it a refreshing shower instead of admit they were wrong in any way at all.

I had most of the day off today, but instead of driving over to the farm dinking around, I hung around the house and mowed the yard. Can’t justify 2 hours of driving at $5+\gallon.


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[bwoods11]

I would guess fewer hunting trips of long distance this year . It’s insane !

 

[Wind Gypsy]

I would guess fewer hunting trips of long distance this year . It’s insane !

The wife's subaru might be taking me to MT for an elk hunt this year..

 

[SD51555]

After some gender inclusivity training at work, I realized I am not a man. I am a furry (deer). I have starting transitioning my diet to what my species normally eats. I'm going to start harvesting forage collards for consumption this weekend, and I've begun growing potatoes and tomatoes in my food plot. I should have known this sooner as I liked to eat basswood leaves in the spring.

Please don't share this beyond the forum. Gender affirming health care treatments are not good for my people, and the government does not seek informed consent. The answer to all deer health problems seems to be democide via mandatory lead vaccination.

 

[b116757]

After some gender inclusivity training at work, I realized I am not a man. I am a furry (deer). I have starting transitioning my diet to what my species normally eats. I'm going to start harvesting forage collards for consumption this weekend, and I've begun growing potatoes and tomatoes in my food plot. I should have known this sooner as I liked to eat basswood leaves in the spring.

Please don't share this beyond the forum. Gender affirming health care treatments are not good for my people, and the government does not seek informed consent. The answer to all deer health problems seems to be democide via mandatory lead vaccination.

Sad or maybe sick part is this sort of training is actually happening

 

[SD51555]

We keep hitting that wall of 40 year highs in inflation, kind of like how FJB’s approval rate continues to fall, but it’s always 33%.

Anyway, we’re toying with the lows of the year in the S&P, and the fed is set to hike again next week. Any takers for a 3/4 surprise?

Fed message to markets next week:

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[Daydreamer]

We keep hitting that wall of 40 year highs in inflation, kind of like how FJB’s approval rate continues to fall, but it’s always 33%.

Anyway, we’re toying with the lows of the year in the S&P, and the fed is set to hike again next week. Any takers for a 3/4 surprise?

Fed message to markets next week:

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Barclays now anticipating a 3/4 hike...she'll be grinding to a halt soon.

 

[b116757]

Barclays now anticipating a 3/4 hike...she'll be grinding to a halt soon.

I’m not so sure about a halt inflation will snowball for a while it hasn’t even peaked yet. Real estate market will go even a little crazier with people buying and selling in a frenzy to beat the inevitable 18% prime rate it took to stop Carter inflation in the early 1980’s we are in for a rocky next 5 -10 years. I wouldn’t be to surprised if the stock market doesn’t drop at least 30% from its peak and I think we are only at about a 20% correction so far. The Fed will need to start quantitative tightening at a much higher rate than 3/4 that will be like throwing a chum bucket overboard to school of sharks thinking it will calm them down. If they bumped it 5% maybe they could calm things down. Also I think the inflation is intentional they are trying to inflate away the nation’s dept that they racked up with all the stimulus at the expense of the poor and middle classes but this will take time so they are in no real hurry to stop inflation at all. They will let it go for several more years before making meaningful rate hikes. Here is a little graph of historical interest rates required to stop the Carterflation.

 

[Tree Spud]

The .75 rate rise, if implemented, will be designed to shock the system in the hope to moderate behavior. What's interesting is that 3 months ago the Fed was talking multiple .25 raises. Then 2-3 weeks ago they were possibly going to go .5 on this next hike. The problem the Fed has, is they allowed the Biden administration to pressure them not to start raising rates 6-8 months ago when it could of had a moderating effect.

If you have a adjustable rate mortgage, might be wise to lock in at a fixed rate now cause they are going up.

The other aspect is that oil is somewhat tied to inflation in a normal market setting. The problem now is the Biden admin is trying to collapse North American oil production. Oil prices, and therefore gas prices, will continue to rise independent of inflation due to lack of supply. Oil is at $120/bbl and is predicted to go to $140-$150. Anyone ready for gas at $7-$8/gal gas? So can higher oil prices start to drive inflation?

High energy costs & high interest rates is not a good sign for the building market.

We are at a tipping point. What Powell says at the Fed meeting on Wed about rate hikes for the balance of the year will either help show the Fed is serious about slowing inflation and the recession or not. They need to show the markets they have a plan. I would like to think that we are not stupid enough to allow Carter like inflation; however, Gov't spending if not controlled will lead us that direction. I am hopeful that the Fed will get serious about rate hikes, and with the election in Nov, there will be many pissed off people who can't afford anything anymore.

 

[b116757]

You think Brandon’s clowns are smarter than Carter’s clowns? From everything I’ve seen so far I find that extremely unlikely.

 

[yoderjac]

The .75 rate rise, if implemented, will be designed to shock the system in the hope to moderate behavior. What's interesting is that 3 months ago the Fed was talking multiple .25 raises. Then 2-3 weeks ago they were possibly going to go .5 on this next hike. The problem the Fed has, is they allowed the Biden administration to pressure them not to start raising rates 6-8 months ago when it could of had a moderating effect.

If you have a adjustable rate mortgage, might be wise to lock in at a fixed rate now cause they are going up.

The other aspect is that oil is somewhat tied to inflation in a normal market setting. The problem now is the Biden admin is trying to collapse North American oil production. Oil prices, and therefore gas prices, will continue to rise independent of inflation due to lack of supply. Oil is at $120/bbl and is predicted to go to $140-$150. Anyone ready for gas at $7-$8/gal gas? So can higher oil prices start to drive inflation?

High energy costs & high interest rates is not a good sign for the building market.

We are at a tipping point. What Powell says at the Fed meeting on Wed about rate hikes for the balance of the year will either help show the Fed is serious about slowing inflation and the recession or not. They need to show the markets they have a plan. I would like to think that we are not stupid enough to allow Carter like inflation; however, Gov't spending if not controlled will lead us that direction. I am hopeful that the Fed will get serious about rate hikes, and with the election in Nov, there will be many pissed off people who can't afford anything anymore.

Actually, I kind of like this inflation compared to the alternatives with a largely democrat government in place. COVID unlocked the spending door for both this and the previous administration. That spending has to be paid for in some form. One way to pay for it is higher taxes. Under a democrat government, any tax hikes would be redistributive in nature. Inflation basically makes our money worth less, but it and across the board non-redistributive impact.

 

[Tree Spud]

You think Brandon’s clowns are smarter than Carter’s clowns? From everything I’ve seen so far I find that extremely unlikely.

No, I think they are more dangerous than Carter's clown crew. What they are doing is deliberate. Socialism evolves by forcing everyone to lowest economic rung on the ladder and taking away their rights to choose.