Stock Market is the bottom in?

Not a fan of government bonds !!
With our monetary policy? ....me neither. But I am old enough to likely ride out the demise of the dollar (?). Dunno....but I keep a small spattering of bonds.....for some "balance?" in our lives. If we do not get some control of our monetary system in the next few years.....we are all in deep chit. I guess I don't know what else to do.....but vote, keep some powder dry..... and swear at the idiots running this country.
 
Not a fan of government bonds !!
Bond funds have taken hits already this year, and if the fed does what they say they're gonna do, this is going to get worse. And we're only 60 days into interest rates really marching upward. I had to bail on my SHOP spec this morning. The way this is going, Shopify could be $50/share by memorial day, and frankly, it looks like they should be.

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Bond funds have taken hits already this year, and if the fed does what they say they're gonna do, this is going to get worse. And we're only 60 days into interest rates really marching upward. I had to bail on my SHOP spec this morning. The way this is going, Shopify could be $50/share by memorial day, and frankly, it looks like they should be.

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Those losses are less than 1/2 of the stock market.....but losses are losses. Where is your safe haven? The mattress? You can't eat cotton stuffing.

edit: from where we are now.....good ammo seems to be the best bet for the future.
 
Those losses are less than 1/2 of the stock market.....but losses are losses. Where is your safe haven? The mattress? You can't eat cotton stuffing.

edit: from where we are now.....good ammo seems to be the best bet for the future.
I sold nearly everything on April 6th. Sitting in cash has been the high ground. I'm still up for the year. That's the craziest thing about all of this. Active investors (including me) had been positioning for a collapse in the value of the dollar, and the exact opposite is happening right now. There will likely be a point where the bottom falls out completely as the debt goes bad and institutions start collapsing. The policy response at that point is what scares me, and I have no idea what comes next or how to prepare for it.

I've said it before, and I'll say it again. Most of us have never experienced a period of contractionary economic policy. We've been in a constant state of stimulus since 1985 in one way or another. It's a whole new set of rules now, and everything that worked the last 37 years no longer applies.
 
I sold nearly everything on April 6th. Sitting in cash has been the high ground. I'm still up for the year. That's the craziest thing about all of this. Active investors (including me) had been positioning for a collapse in the value of the dollar, and the exact opposite is happening right now. There will likely be a point where the bottom falls out completely as the debt goes bad and institutions start collapsing. The policy response at that point is what scares me, and I have no idea what comes next or how to prepare for it.

I've said it before, and I'll say it again. Most of us have never experienced a period of contractionary economic policy. We've been in a constant state of stimulus since 1985 in one way or another. It's a whole new set of rules now, and everything that worked the last 37 years no longer applies.

I pulled out in October assuming that the Chinese housing defaults would cause the drop, and that never materialized… a hundreds and hundreds of billions in defaults, maybe a couple trillion, and the markets acted like it never happened. Our worldwide fundamentals are absolutely jacked right now. I don’t know what to expect, but I know it’s not good.


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I pulled out in October assuming that the Chinese housing defaults would cause the drop, and that never materialized… a hundreds and hundreds of billions in defaults, maybe a couple trillion, and the markets acted like it never happened. Our worldwide fundamentals are absolutely jacked right now. I don’t know what to expect, but I know it’s not good.


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Amazing how those problems just disappear from the headlines.
 
Only govt bonds i've ever bought started within the last 6 months with I bonds which follow inflation. Seems like about the safest place to put money and still have a growth to me but it's capped at $15k/year contribution ($10k max annual contribution + $5k in tax return via paper Ibond to get to $15k).
 
Only govt bonds i've ever bought started within the last 6 months with I bonds which follow inflation. Seems like about the safest place to put money and still have a growth to me but it's capped at $15k/year contribution ($10k max annual contribution + $5k in tax return via paper Ibond to get to $15k).
I (almost) never owned bonds or bond funds until I retired. Now I reluctantly hold some to keep stability and balance.....and to provide some tax free income. At one time I bought some tax free Muni bonds that yielded 14%. <----that was a 20 year MN Muni (non callable) bond with a great rating.....had "coupons "to clip and present to the bank each monty. I can remember a waiting list to buy Nuveen Municipal bond funds yielding 14%....and they would sell out in a day. Most of those bonds had a call feature.....and they did not last for long.

I also had money market funds that provided a yield of nearly 20% back in the day (80's'). You never know what comes next in this goofy world. Never say never.

Yep....I'm gettin old. Grin.

I tell my kids.....that there was no such thing as a 401K or an IRA or very few ways to invest for retirement until I was in my mid 30's. I had to push my wife's employer to get a TSA program started (a hospital) as they were one of the few places that qualified for tax free investment plans. The big companies had "pensions" but those were not aviallable to many folks back in time....and then your needed to sell your soul to a union job.....ARGH! Not for me. Almost nobody had a decent self-directed retirement plan until the 80's. And those that invested some money paid some high commissions to buy stocks or mutual funds. <----those stock brokers, insurance brokers, and mutual fund salesmen really rang the bell for many years. Then along came folks like Vanguard, Fidelity, T. Rowe Price, etc with low priced, well managed funds as well as brokerages like Schwab and more. Bingo.

In the 80's, 90's and 2000's....I mostly bought no-load index funds and health care and a few well managed mutual funds with a hot manager. I was an early buyer of BRIC funds as I experienced America offshoring almost all our manufacturing. All of those really compounded nicely especially in the 90's. Still....my best-ever investment was my own company.....which took a few years to develop....but really came back in spades.

Some of my old High School friends never really got the message until a decade or two later. They simply didn't yet know or trust the "new" way to invest. Many of you younger guys would not know of such stuff I suppose (?). Anyway....allot has changed to benefit the consumer.....however, sadly, IMO our government has gone to chit.
 
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But did you buy?

On those types of gambles.....you gotta make two good timing decisions.. 1. When to buy. 2. When to sell. Both better be right.
 
On those types of gambles.....you gotta make two good timing decisions.. 1. When to buy. 2. When to sell. Both better be right.
I've been dollar cost averaging on bitcoin and one other crypto for a few years now. Trying to time it is even more difficult than timing the equities market. I've actually been loving these prices. I never thought I would have the chance to buy more under 30K, let alone 40k.

Relevant clip that describes my current sentiments:
 
On those types of gambles.....you gotta make two good timing decisions.. 1. When to buy. 2. When to sell. Both better be right.

If he bought at anytime in '18 (and to a lesser extent '20) and is still holding it is hard to mess up the selling timing too badly.

I put about $25k into crypto in spring of '17. Made massive panic selling mistakes but still came out pretty enough to cover 20% down on my first house, 50% of my 40 acre property, and pay for a once in a lifetime sheep hunt in AK.
 
If he bought at anytime in '18 (and to a lesser extent '20) and is still holding it is hard to mess up the selling timing too badly.

I put about $25k into crypto in spring of '17. Made massive panic selling mistakes but still came out pretty enough to cover 20% down on my first house, 50% of my 40 acre property, and pay for a once in a lifetime sheep hunt in AK.
I have never sold any, but will likely be selling some off here soon if an offer on some land is accepted.
 
If he bought at anytime in '18 (and to a lesser extent '20) and is still holding it is hard to mess up the selling timing too badly.

I put about $25k into crypto in spring of '17. Made massive panic selling mistakes but still came out pretty enough to cover 20% down on my first house, 50% of my 40 acre property, and pay for a once in a lifetime sheep hunt in AK.
The fee for the loan on that lime spreader just went up. Grin.
 
I guess the name on this thread is playing true ... Stock Market is the bottom in?

Real bloodbath out there today ... Dow down over 1100 points ... glad the adults are now in charge.
 
I guess the name on this thread is playing true ... Stock Market is the bottom in?

Real bloodbath out there today ... Dow down over 1100 points ... glad the adults are now in charge.
Somebody is in charge, and they are doing very well towards their goals.
 
Hello investor, I’d like you to meet Mr. Bear. He’s not very nice. Mr. Correction is a PITA but only stays a short time. Mr. Bear is the date that won’t leave and makes you miss Mr. Correction.

Let’s talk again in November if the country wakes up.
 
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