Stock Market is the bottom in?

[Foggy47]

In several markets there has been a dip in 2023 and 2024. Inflation has tapped out a lot of folks in the US. Other markets are at all-time highs. It really depends where you're looking to buy. Time of year also plays a roll.

If the fed doesn't lower rates, and Trump makes good on his promise to deport millions of people, there could well be a further dip in many housing markets around the country. If the economy improves and rates come down, I'd be inclined to think prices will rise across the country.

If I were looking to buy, I'd dive deep into the factors affecting the location where I was buying. If there is an indication that the Fed will start cutting rates, I would be seriously considering buying in certain markets. These are the conditions I'm waiting for before I get back into real estate. There are so many production facilities being built around the country now. Those people will need somewhere to live, and I'd love to have rentals wherever the economy is booming. Then I'd sell when the market plateaued again.

If I were looking for a home...sheesh, there's a lot to consider before making a decision.

We would like to downsize our home in MN. Been watching real estate for a year or so....trying to decide what we would buy. I suppose we are somewhat "picky"......and we are uncertain about what we want. It's a bit more complicated because we also spend 1/2 the year in AZ now...and want to stay low maintenance. But, for us the elephant in the room is.....if we downsize the house value....then we end up paying a pretty steep capital gains tax on the house we sell. Therefore the tax paid negates a lower price home to some extent.

It's a catch 22. We are trying to downsize and simplify our lives, but doing so can be costly too. Moving, furniture that doesn't fit, some remodeling (?), taxes, etc, etc. Seems that trying to simply can be costly and take up lots of time too.

If we procrastinate too long.....we will end up "in the home". lol.

 

[SD51555]

The hard part with rates is here. Mortgages are back to 7%, 15 year is 6.5%. The yield on the 10-year is back at highs again. This is a problem not only for real estate, but we're rolling over trillions in federal government debt at higher rates. We're at the point where we're gonna go into hyperdrive printing money, or we've got to bust all the segments of our economy that rely on death and war to keep going. At this point, I don't think you can save the defense industry or the healthcare industry. There's too much wrapped up in them to be able to get spending under control without wholesale busting their revenue streams.

Trump is gonna face massive deficits simply because the debt is rolling over. Somebody is gonna have to take a hair cut, and I don't think any faction is in any condition to handle even a slight bump downward, not consumers, not bomb makers, not healthcare. I've always said, if peace and good health broke out on earth, our economy would crumble.

 

[Telemark]

We would like to downsize our home in MN. Been watching real estate for a year or so....trying to decide what we would buy. I suppose we are somewhat "picky"......and we are uncertain about what we want. It's a bit more complicated because we also spend 1/2 the year in AZ now...and want to stay low maintenance. But, for us the elephant in the room is.....if we downsize the house value....then we end up paying a pretty steep capital gains tax on the house we sell. Therefore the tax paid negates a lower price home to some extent.

It's a catch 22. We are trying to downsize and simplify our lives, but doing so can be costly too. Moving, furniture that doesn't fit, some remodeling (?), taxes, etc, etc. Seems that trying to simply can be costly and take up lots of time too.

If we procrastinate too long.....we will end up "in the home". lol.

Do a 1031 when you move. Read up on it, and have a lawyer sort it all out for you. It will save you a lot in taxes. I think there is a way to avoid capital gains taxes when your kids inherit your property too.

 

[Telemark]

The hard part with rates is here. Mortgages are back to 7%, 15 year is 6.5%. The yield on the 10-year is back at highs again. This is a problem not only for real estate, but we're rolling over trillions in federal government debt at higher rates. We're at the point where we're gonna go into hyperdrive printing money, or we've got to bust all the segments of our economy that rely on death and war to keep going. At this point, I don't think you can save the defense industry or the healthcare industry. There's too much wrapped up in them to be able to get spending under control without wholesale busting their revenue streams.

Trump is gonna face massive deficits simply because the debt is rolling over. Somebody is gonna have to take a hair cut, and I don't think any faction is in any condition to handle even a slight bump downward, not consumers, not bomb makers, not healthcare. I've always said, if peace and good health broke out on earth, our economy would crumble.

I don't invest in health care stocks. Too hard to predict. I'm not messing with defense either, except for drones. I think there will be a lot of federal money spent upgrading our arsenal to drones powered by AI.

 

[Brian662]

We would like to downsize our home in MN. Been watching real estate for a year or so....trying to decide what we would buy. I suppose we are somewhat "picky"......and we are uncertain about what we want. It's a bit more complicated because we also spend 1/2 the year in AZ now...and want to stay low maintenance. But, for us the elephant in the room is.....if we downsize the house value....then we end up paying a pretty steep capital gains tax on the house we sell. Therefore the tax paid negates a lower price home to some extent.

It's a catch 22. We are trying to downsize and simplify our lives, but doing so can be costly too. Moving, furniture that doesn't fit, some remodeling (?), taxes, etc, etc. Seems that trying to simply can be costly and take up lots of time too.

If we procrastinate too long.....we will end up "in the home". lol.

Your primary residence must be your home in AZ? Federal tax law has a large (I think 500k) shelter from capital gains on the primary residence.

 

[Brian662]

Do a 1031 when you move. Read up on it, and have a lawyer sort it all out for you. It will save you a lot in taxes. I think there is a way to avoid capital gains taxes when your kids inherit your property too.

They allow a one time step up in basis when you die so your kids can reset the equity to current day prices.

One of my hunting properties is sheltered under a 1031 and my trust will have specific instructions for my children so if they decide to sell (or not) they are aren't hammered by a large tax bill.

 

[Bowsnbucks]

You're going to flip your lid when you find out what's it's called:

In English, it's called Rednote. Red, of course, is the color of communism.

In Chinese it's called Xiaohongshu. This means "little red book". If you don't remember what that is, it was various quotes from Mao Zedong, widely distributed as communist propaganda during the Cultural Revolution in China. Here's a picture of the Red Guards holding up their Little Red Books:

View attachment 73257

Sorry if I ruined your weekend.

Yep - I knew the correlation to Mao's book. Just couldn't remember the name "Rednote" at the time I posted earlier. Ironic, isn't it??? Joke's on us.

If I live to be 1 million - I'll never understand why we support anything in an enemy state like China or Russia. Maybe our previous generations fought & died for free democracy .... for nothing. The whole world knows China is / has been stealing intellectual property via electronic spying means, as well as just copying it from U.S. machinery & tool-making that sits right in China for the cheap / forced labor. Stealing not just from U.S. either. Equal opportunity thieves.

But so many cry & whine if they can't use their "beloved" Tik-Tok. "We'll just switch to Rednote." Bravo ......

 

[Bowsnbucks]

Do a 1031 when you move. Read up on it, and have a lawyer sort it all out for you. It will save you a lot in taxes. I think there is a way to avoid capital gains taxes when your kids inherit your property too.

There is a way. Lawyers specializing in estate law. Saves a bundle in taxes.

 

[Foggy47]

There is a way. Lawyers specializing in estate law. Saves a bundle in taxes.

We've done some consults with some lawyers, planners, accountants and tax people. I don't know how you can do a 1031 and buy something of 1/2 the value....and not pay capitol gains taxes. An equal or higher valued property is do-able but not a lower priced property.

At this point we think we need to die to allow a stepped up basis opportunity on our home to our family. That's not an option for me at this point....lol.

Same goes for stocks.....unless you got some losses to offset the gains....those stocks with gains are gonna get taxed. 95% of the stocks we own show a gain in value. A good problem to have.

As the old saw goes: Two things are certain.....death and taxes.

 

[Foggy47]

In several markets there has been a dip in 2023 and 2024. Inflation has tapped out a lot of folks in the US. Other markets are at all-time highs. It really depends where you're looking to buy. Time of year also plays a roll.

If the fed doesn't lower rates, and Trump makes good on his promise to deport millions of people, there could well be a further dip in many housing markets around the country. If the economy improves and rates come down, I'd be inclined to think prices will rise across the country.

If I were looking to buy, I'd dive deep into the factors affecting the location where I was buying. If there is an indication that the Fed will start cutting rates, I would be seriously considering buying in certain markets. These are the conditions I'm waiting for before I get back into real estate. There are so many production facilities being built around the country now. Those people will need somewhere to live, and I'd love to have rentals wherever the economy is booming. Then I'd sell when the market plateaued again.

If I were looking for a home...sheesh, there's a lot to consider before making a decision.

To your point......lots of huge apartment complexes being built here in OZ. The growth in this area of the city is the fastest in the nation. Many RIETS and investment companies building homes and appartments, condo's and such to RENT. They do not want to sell them...many want the income stream and inflation hedge that rental properties will provide.

There is also lots of commercial buildings of resteraunts, retailers and service industry. Miles and miles of warehouse and manufacturing buildings going up here. Even warehouses built on speculation! Huge ones too. Never thought I would see that.....but it makes some sense. Allmost all the warehouses have a similar construction of tip-up concrete walls and lots of doors all around the buildings. Many encompass a few city blocks in size. Some may be a quarter mile to 1/2 mile long.