Stock Market is the bottom in?

[Foggy47]

In several markets there has been a dip in 2023 and 2024. Inflation has tapped out a lot of folks in the US. Other markets are at all-time highs. It really depends where you're looking to buy. Time of year also plays a roll.

If the fed doesn't lower rates, and Trump makes good on his promise to deport millions of people, there could well be a further dip in many housing markets around the country. If the economy improves and rates come down, I'd be inclined to think prices will rise across the country.

If I were looking to buy, I'd dive deep into the factors affecting the location where I was buying. If there is an indication that the Fed will start cutting rates, I would be seriously considering buying in certain markets. These are the conditions I'm waiting for before I get back into real estate. There are so many production facilities being built around the country now. Those people will need somewhere to live, and I'd love to have rentals wherever the economy is booming. Then I'd sell when the market plateaued again.

If I were looking for a home...sheesh, there's a lot to consider before making a decision.

We would like to downsize our home in MN. Been watching real estate for a year or so....trying to decide what we would buy. I suppose we are somewhat "picky"......and we are uncertain about what we want. It's a bit more complicated because we also spend 1/2 the year in AZ now...and want to stay low maintenance. But, for us the elephant in the room is.....if we downsize the house value....then we end up paying a pretty steep capital gains tax on the house we sell. Therefore the tax paid negates a lower price home to some extent.

It's a catch 22. We are trying to downsize and simplify our lives, but doing so can be costly too. Moving, furniture that doesn't fit, some remodeling (?), taxes, etc, etc. Seems that trying to simply can be costly and take up lots of time too.

If we procrastinate too long.....we will end up "in the home". lol.

 

[SD51555]

The hard part with rates is here. Mortgages are back to 7%, 15 year is 6.5%. The yield on the 10-year is back at highs again. This is a problem not only for real estate, but we're rolling over trillions in federal government debt at higher rates. We're at the point where we're gonna go into hyperdrive printing money, or we've got to bust all the segments of our economy that rely on death and war to keep going. At this point, I don't think you can save the defense industry or the healthcare industry. There's too much wrapped up in them to be able to get spending under control without wholesale busting their revenue streams.

Trump is gonna face massive deficits simply because the debt is rolling over. Somebody is gonna have to take a hair cut, and I don't think any faction is in any condition to handle even a slight bump downward, not consumers, not bomb makers, not healthcare. I've always said, if peace and good health broke out on earth, our economy would crumble.

 

[Telemark]

We would like to downsize our home in MN. Been watching real estate for a year or so....trying to decide what we would buy. I suppose we are somewhat "picky"......and we are uncertain about what we want. It's a bit more complicated because we also spend 1/2 the year in AZ now...and want to stay low maintenance. But, for us the elephant in the room is.....if we downsize the house value....then we end up paying a pretty steep capital gains tax on the house we sell. Therefore the tax paid negates a lower price home to some extent.

It's a catch 22. We are trying to downsize and simplify our lives, but doing so can be costly too. Moving, furniture that doesn't fit, some remodeling (?), taxes, etc, etc. Seems that trying to simply can be costly and take up lots of time too.

If we procrastinate too long.....we will end up "in the home". lol.

Do a 1031 when you move. Read up on it, and have a lawyer sort it all out for you. It will save you a lot in taxes. I think there is a way to avoid capital gains taxes when your kids inherit your property too.

 

[Telemark]

The hard part with rates is here. Mortgages are back to 7%, 15 year is 6.5%. The yield on the 10-year is back at highs again. This is a problem not only for real estate, but we're rolling over trillions in federal government debt at higher rates. We're at the point where we're gonna go into hyperdrive printing money, or we've got to bust all the segments of our economy that rely on death and war to keep going. At this point, I don't think you can save the defense industry or the healthcare industry. There's too much wrapped up in them to be able to get spending under control without wholesale busting their revenue streams.

Trump is gonna face massive deficits simply because the debt is rolling over. Somebody is gonna have to take a hair cut, and I don't think any faction is in any condition to handle even a slight bump downward, not consumers, not bomb makers, not healthcare. I've always said, if peace and good health broke out on earth, our economy would crumble.

I don't invest in health care stocks. Too hard to predict. I'm not messing with defense either, except for drones. I think there will be a lot of federal money spent upgrading our arsenal to drones powered by AI.

 

[Brian662]

We would like to downsize our home in MN. Been watching real estate for a year or so....trying to decide what we would buy. I suppose we are somewhat "picky"......and we are uncertain about what we want. It's a bit more complicated because we also spend 1/2 the year in AZ now...and want to stay low maintenance. But, for us the elephant in the room is.....if we downsize the house value....then we end up paying a pretty steep capital gains tax on the house we sell. Therefore the tax paid negates a lower price home to some extent.

It's a catch 22. We are trying to downsize and simplify our lives, but doing so can be costly too. Moving, furniture that doesn't fit, some remodeling (?), taxes, etc, etc. Seems that trying to simply can be costly and take up lots of time too.

If we procrastinate too long.....we will end up "in the home". lol.

Your primary residence must be your home in AZ? Federal tax law has a large (I think 500k) shelter from capital gains on the primary residence.

 

[Brian662]

Do a 1031 when you move. Read up on it, and have a lawyer sort it all out for you. It will save you a lot in taxes. I think there is a way to avoid capital gains taxes when your kids inherit your property too.

They allow a one time step up in basis when you die so your kids can reset the equity to current day prices.

One of my hunting properties is sheltered under a 1031 and my trust will have specific instructions for my children so if they decide to sell (or not) they are aren't hammered by a large tax bill.

 

[Bowsnbucks]

You're going to flip your lid when you find out what's it's called:

In English, it's called Rednote. Red, of course, is the color of communism.

In Chinese it's called Xiaohongshu. This means "little red book". If you don't remember what that is, it was various quotes from Mao Zedong, widely distributed as communist propaganda during the Cultural Revolution in China. Here's a picture of the Red Guards holding up their Little Red Books:

View attachment 73257

Sorry if I ruined your weekend.

Yep - I knew the correlation to Mao's book. Just couldn't remember the name "Rednote" at the time I posted earlier. Ironic, isn't it??? Joke's on us.

If I live to be 1 million - I'll never understand why we support anything in an enemy state like China or Russia. Maybe our previous generations fought & died for free democracy .... for nothing. The whole world knows China is / has been stealing intellectual property via electronic spying means, as well as just copying it from U.S. machinery & tool-making that sits right in China for the cheap / forced labor. Stealing not just from U.S. either. Equal opportunity thieves.

But so many cry & whine if they can't use their "beloved" Tik-Tok. "We'll just switch to Rednote." Bravo ......

 

[Bowsnbucks]

Do a 1031 when you move. Read up on it, and have a lawyer sort it all out for you. It will save you a lot in taxes. I think there is a way to avoid capital gains taxes when your kids inherit your property too.

There is a way. Lawyers specializing in estate law. Saves a bundle in taxes.

 

[Foggy47]

There is a way. Lawyers specializing in estate law. Saves a bundle in taxes.

We've done some consults with some lawyers, planners, accountants and tax people. I don't know how you can do a 1031 and buy something of 1/2 the value....and not pay capitol gains taxes. An equal or higher valued property is do-able but not a lower priced property.

At this point we think we need to die to allow a stepped up basis opportunity on our home to our family. That's not an option for me at this point....lol.

Same goes for stocks.....unless you got some losses to offset the gains....those stocks with gains are gonna get taxed. 95% of the stocks we own show a gain in value. A good problem to have.

As the old saw goes: Two things are certain.....death and taxes.

 

[Foggy47]

In several markets there has been a dip in 2023 and 2024. Inflation has tapped out a lot of folks in the US. Other markets are at all-time highs. It really depends where you're looking to buy. Time of year also plays a roll.

If the fed doesn't lower rates, and Trump makes good on his promise to deport millions of people, there could well be a further dip in many housing markets around the country. If the economy improves and rates come down, I'd be inclined to think prices will rise across the country.

If I were looking to buy, I'd dive deep into the factors affecting the location where I was buying. If there is an indication that the Fed will start cutting rates, I would be seriously considering buying in certain markets. These are the conditions I'm waiting for before I get back into real estate. There are so many production facilities being built around the country now. Those people will need somewhere to live, and I'd love to have rentals wherever the economy is booming. Then I'd sell when the market plateaued again.

If I were looking for a home...sheesh, there's a lot to consider before making a decision.

To your point......lots of huge apartment complexes being built here in OZ. The growth in this area of the city is the fastest in the nation. Many RIETS and investment companies building homes and appartments, condo's and such to RENT. They do not want to sell them...many want the income stream and inflation hedge that rental properties will provide.

There is also lots of commercial buildings of resteraunts, retailers and service industry. Miles and miles of warehouse and manufacturing buildings going up here. Even warehouses built on speculation! Huge ones too. Never thought I would see that.....but it makes some sense. Allmost all the warehouses have a similar construction of tip-up concrete walls and lots of doors all around the buildings. Many encompass a few city blocks in size. Some may be a quarter mile to 1/2 mile long.

 

[Telemark]

We've done some consults with some lawyers, planners, accountants and tax people. I don't know how you can do a 1031 and buy something of 1/2 the value....and not pay capitol gains taxes. An equal or higher valued property is do-able but not a lower priced property.

At this point we think we need to die to allow a stepped up basis opportunity on our home to our family. That's not an option for me at this point....lol.

Same goes for stocks.....unless you got some losses to offset the gains....those stocks with gains are gonna get taxed. 95% of the stocks we own show a gain in value. A good problem to have.

As the old saw goes: Two things are certain.....death and taxes.

You don't pay anything on the first 80k. If your house is worth over $580,000 then yes you're going to pay capital gains taxes.

 

[Skeeter]

People will go to where the popular platform of the day is, and where they can hear what they want to hear. I want facts & science ...... not a loud yapper spouting conspiracies. These days, propaganda jocks are attempting to re-write many historical FACTS - like they didn't happen. Just because some loud yapper says something is BS - - - doesn't make it so.

Example - Congress and the Supreme Court (as did Biden) have ruled Tik-Tok a threat to national security since it's known that China is collecting all kinds of data and conversations of Americans on it. So - - since the public has flushed that fact (and any concern for our national security / intellectual property rights) down the crapper - they're moving to another Chinese platform - don't remember its name. So much for "patriotism" and "Hooray for the Red, White & Blue." ("I can't use Tik-Tok anymore? Oh God - I'll just die!!") Talk is cheap ...... sacrifice takes backbone & guts. It's not like there aren't other U.S. platforms to use.

I've been trying to understand this response for a couple of days now and I am just as confused as the first time that I read it. I do not see an argument in there that shows fact checkers are more objectively correct than a community notes type system.
Now, that said, I think I can agree with some of what I see in your response. Musk is certainly not running the epitome of free speech social media platforms like he wants the world to believe. It is absolutely despicable that he takes away individuals ability to make money on X when they get too critical of him. And yes, he has a loud voice on the platform, but I do not believe that it carries as much weight when it comes to community notes. Even he has been corrected through that system.

As far as who believes tiktok to be a threat, that's a matter of what point in history we choose to look at. When Trump said it was a threat, those against him said it wasn't. Now they say it's a threat, and Trump has changed his position to be opposed to them. More of the same stupid tribalism. I wouldn't tout either side as holding the moral high ground. One side is certainly correct, though I'm not sure it's for the right reasons. It's just that now it's the side that was incorrect previously. This is very much a generalization and does not include those who have held a consistent position across time.

 

[Bowsnbucks]

We've done some consults with some lawyers, planners, accountants and tax people. I don't know how you can do a 1031 and buy something of 1/2 the value....and not pay capitol gains taxes. An equal or higher valued property is do-able but not a lower priced property.

At this point we think we need to die to allow a stepped up basis opportunity on our home to our family. That's not an option for me at this point....lol.

Same goes for stocks.....unless you got some losses to offset the gains....those stocks with gains are gonna get taxed. 95% of the stocks we own show a gain in value. A good problem to have.

As the old saw goes: Two things are certain.....death and taxes.

I don't know about passing a property to an heir while still living, but it can be done on death. Lawyers set it up for our parents. Less paid in taxes.

 

[Barndog56]

Has Trump actually said it's not a threat? Or is he just saying he can get the owner to sell it so it isn't a threat any longer?

 

[jsasker007]

For some reason I'm thinking you can avoid a bunch of tax if you put property in the heirs name/names 5 years in advance? Maybe not. Had that stuck in my head for some reason.

 

[Skeeter]

It's not a simple tiktok is good now on Trump's end but the bill passed by Congress wasn't a ban either, as long as tiktok divested from China. He's claiming majority us ownership. I don't understand the thinking behind an attempt at an executive order to overrule Congress and the supreme court. Seems similar to the Biden approach of making an executive order so you get to do what you want while it moves through the courts. Was hoping for better than that.

 

[KY wild]

It's not a simple tiktok is good now on Trump's end but the bill passed by Congress wasn't a ban either, as long as tiktok divested from China. He's claiming majority us ownership. I don't understand the thinking behind an attempt at an executive order to overrule Congress and the supreme court. Seems similar to the Biden approach of making an executive order so you get to do what you want while it moves through the courts. Was hoping for better than that.

I agree if bipartisan congress has said a danger to our country and now Supreme Court 9-0 in support of congress, why would Trump try to undermine and keep TikTok. I have no clue if TikTok is bad for our country but I trust they know much more than I do. TikTok had chance to sell to US company but chose not to, so good luck I say. I think it will be very interesting to see if congress caves to Trump or stands up to him on this issue. Three branches should rule America and two branches have spoken. Honestly what could be his point, I want the American people to love me even if it is not what is best for them or the country. To me it would be like a principal serving cokes and candy every day for lunch so the kids would like them better than serving the basic food groups.

 

[Bowsnbucks]

I've been trying to understand this response for a couple of days now and I am just as confused as the first time that I read it. I do not see an argument in there that shows fact checkers are more objectively correct than a community notes type system.
Now, that said, I think I can agree with some of what I see in your response. Musk is certainly not running the epitome of free speech social media platforms like he wants the world to believe. It is absolutely despicable that he takes away individuals ability to make money on X when they get too critical of him. And yes, he has a loud voice on the platform, but I do not believe that it carries as much weight when it comes to community notes. Even he has been corrected through that system.

As far as who believes tiktok to be a threat, that's a matter of what point in history we choose to look at. When Trump said it was a threat, those against him said it wasn't. Now they say it's a threat, and Trump has changed his position to be opposed to them. More of the same stupid tribalism. I wouldn't tout either side as holding the moral high ground. One side is certainly correct, though I'm not sure it's for the right reasons. It's just that now it's the side that was incorrect previously. This is very much a generalization and does not include those who have held a consistent position across time.

Just going by the Constitution's guarantee of a free press (the idea being a free press should truthfully hold elected officials to account for their actions). Making up lies / misinformation / rumors - on either side - amounts to just that .... lies. Propaganda for political gain. How are we, as a "free society" supposed to make informed, beneficial decisions based on lies. It doesn't serve either side well. This is an exaggerated example, but suppose on a couple of social media platforms, there was rampant trending that a new virus broke out and people were dropping dead within an hour. What kind of panic would hit the country?? Ever hear of Orson Welles' "War of the Worlds"?? A very similar situation. People jumped out of buildings. Those are 2 extreme examples of what can happen from lies / misinformation. But how can any of us here in the U.S. make educated, informed decisions without truth & facts??? We've endured some massive lies lately, with total agreement from over 60 courts (both sides) of the falsehoods. Someone in the last few years famously proclaimed the phrase, "alternate facts." There is no such thing.

I agree with you on stupid tribalism. The attitude of "My side is always right / is looking out for all of our interests" just doesn't float. Flip-flopping on an issue for political expediency (either side) at a given point in time is crap. Most of us here are avg. Americans with the same aspirations for our families - go to work at a good-paying job, pay bills / taxes / raise a family, save & invest for retirement / college(?). That's true for R & D & I. But with one side saying black & the other white all the time on any given issue ...... no chance of sorting out the truth. Until after they're in office. (Too late then). I look at which side is enacting legislation that benefits the majority of Americans - the ultra-rich don't need more help getting by - or am I missing something? I pay more attention to legislative actions more than words. In the race to see who will become the world's first trillionaire, do I think the avg. American should have their Social Security, Medicare & Medicaid slashed to pay for billions in tax breaks for billionaires?? NO. For many underpaid Americans, (of all parties), Social Security is all they have to live on after working their entire lives. Those kinds of legislative actions can't be hidden, altered, "spun", or twisted like words can. They're out there for all to see. Those actions are facts that no one can dispute. (Actions speak louder than words, right?)

How do we arrive at a set of truthful, fact-dispensing consensus of info sources?? That question is as old as dirt.

 

[jsasker007]

Common sense needs to make a strong comeback in my opinion.

 

[SD51555]

How do we arrive at a set of truthful, fact-dispensing consensus of info sources?? That question is as old as dirt.

People have to be responsible for themselves and the information they choose to believe, otherwise they're just going to be used and abused by those that do have the ability to reason. Been that way for all of time.

Remember, we're not only at risk of those who are intentionally trying to deceive us, there are also tons of experts out there who have no idea what they hell they are talking about, despite having good intentions.