Stock Market is the bottom in?

One that’s I’ve been playing with is redcat (rcat). They make military drones. They seem to yo-yo between $9 and $13. You could play call and puts with this one.
 
Intel shares up 7% after word it's a potential acquisition target.

Bummer. I was hoping their new lithography and US facilities were going to send them into the stratosphere in a few years. Maybe there's room to scalp a quick profit next week.
 
And yet they consistently have some of the top markets for new construction homes and their real estate market is one of the most expensive in the world implying demand is insane. I have no idea what to make of the truth. Everything I hear from my side says it’s a whacked out hellhole and people are fleeing like crazy, yet the real estate numbers tell me a different story

California is just beautiful, and it has an amazing climate. That will always attract people no matter how badly the politicians screw the place up. I would never want to live in California, but if I could afford it, you bet I would buy a vacation home on the Nevada side of Lake Tahoe. Retiring in Utah and vacationing in Tahoe would be a great way to spend my retirement years. Hunting, fishing, hiking, camping, in one of the most stunning parts of the world would be a dream come true.
 
Be careful about that idea. In that area they’re proposing an excess tax on vacation homes. If you don’t live there full time you have to rent it out to the needy. If not you pay a large tax adjustment. Although I think the people in that area are just going to ignore that and just pay it. Lots of money in that area.
 
Be careful about that idea. In that area they’re proposing an excess tax on vacation homes. If you don’t live there full time you have to rent it out to the needy. If not you pay a large tax adjustment. Although I think the people in that area are just going to ignore that and just pay it. Lots of money in that area.

In Nevada?
 
California, Sorry. I’m not sure how Nevada is handling that. Probably much better. Reading your post too fast and all I saw was California
 
"Thomas Massie gives the example of 10 apples and 10 dollars, in an economy where all money is spent. Each apple costs a dollar. If the money stock is doubled, each apple costs two dollars. And so on. It’s a simple example but gets the point across. In the real world, there is a lag of the effect, between 12 and 18 months. In this case, the lag hits the 12-month mark almost exactly."

 
Thinking about increasing my position in GSL? 10.25% dividend , PE under 2.5.

What say U?
 
Thinking about increasing my position in GSL? 10.25% dividend , PE under 2.5.

What say U?

Those kinds of numbers freak me out in this kind of market. There has to be a reason everyone is staying away from them, I presume.

Shipping stocks are falling, and I'm not sure why. I have heard a few things along the way that make sense, but I'm not sure if they are accurate:

Maritime shipping is decreasing and likely to continue to decrease.

The US is pulling back from trade with China. Much of that manufacturing is going to Mexico and back to the US, so that's trucking and railroads rather than shipping. China is not a cheap place to manufacture goods anymore, so that might decrease output volume. Even if China moves up in value added and increases the total value of their exports, it doesn't mean an increase in volume of exports. In addition to these issues, Trump is threatening to tariff the everloving crap out of them.

Germany's economy is collapsing. Much of their manufacturing is also moving to the US. BASF just moved a huge facility to New Orleans. Volkswagen just laid off thousands of employees due to decreased production.

Japan builds where they sell, and has done for decades. Toyota and Honda have dozens of production facilities all over North America, and they are building more.

Canada still can't export energy to China, and even if Poilievre gets an LNG pipeline out to Vancouver and builds a liquefaction facility there, the ships that move LNG are very specific and are not container ships.

I'm not giving you advice here. I'm just explaining what I've heard and the reasons I'm staying away from maritime shipping stocks.
 
REFI is the stock I've been looking at. I don't understand why the dividend is so high. It looks like a great guy, but I haven't been able to find enough info on it to make me confident enough to buy.
 
Thinking about increasing my position in GSL? 10.25% dividend , PE under 2.5.

What say U?

Looks like their business hangs on lease renewals, and interest rates going back down. If the small hats cook the world with high rates and those leases fall apart, that company will vanish in a split second.

Breitburn Energy was structured the same way. They had a shitload of short term debt at low rates, and they forward contracted all their energy sales. Energy collapsed and they were reduced to ashes in days.


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Fertilizer stocks are on a recent trend up . Mosaic, CF, UAN… I own UAN, bought some at $68/70 and now it’s over $80.

It pays a solid dividend, & it’s a takeover candidate —I like the stock .
 
Are community notes on X proven wrong over time as much as fact checkers on Facebook have been? There must be a reason Facebook is charging to more of a community notes type system.
People will go to where the popular platform of the day is, and where they can hear what they want to hear. I want facts & science ...... not a loud yapper spouting conspiracies. These days, propaganda jocks are attempting to re-write many historical FACTS - like they didn't happen. Just because some loud yapper says something is BS - - - doesn't make it so.

Example - Congress and the Supreme Court (as did Biden) have ruled Tik-Tok a threat to national security since it's known that China is collecting all kinds of data and conversations of Americans on it. So - - since the public has flushed that fact (and any concern for our national security / intellectual property rights) down the crapper - they're moving to another Chinese platform - don't remember its name. So much for "patriotism" and "Hooray for the Red, White & Blue." ("I can't use Tik-Tok anymore? Oh God - I'll just die!!") Talk is cheap ...... sacrifice takes backbone & guts. It's not like there aren't other U.S. platforms to use.
 
We sold a pretty big number of stocks today...on some of our biggest gainers over the past 5++ years. Gonna cost us some tax....but valuations are quite high....and we will be gifting more to our grandchildren, whom may be soon be in a better position to prosper via (home) real estate investment (long term) than we are. Never sure about these things.....but I see interest rates coming back down.....and home prices are coming down too.

Young people today seem screwed....unless we can help them out now. That is our plan. Hope it works. Doing some generation-skipping gifting as our kids have done pretty well on their own. Nice problem to have for us.....feeling blessed.
 
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So - - since the public has flushed that fact (and any concern for our national security / intellectual property rights) down the crapper - they're moving to another Chinese platform - don't remember its name

You're going to flip your lid when you find out what's it's called:

In English, it's called Rednote. Red, of course, is the color of communism.

In Chinese it's called Xiaohongshu. This means "little red book". If you don't remember what that is, it was various quotes from Mao Zedong, widely distributed as communist propaganda during the Cultural Revolution in China. Here's a picture of the Red Guards holding up their Little Red Books:

redguardstiananmen.jpg

Sorry if I ruined your weekend.
 
We sold a pretty big number of stocks today...on some of our biggest gainers over the past 5++ years. Gonna cost us some tax....but valuations are quite high....and we will be gifting more to our grandchildren, whom may be soon be in a better position to prosper via (home) real estate investment (long term) than we are. Never sure about these things.....but I see interest rates coming back down.....and home prices are coming down too.

Young people today seem screwed....unless we can help them out now. That is our plan. Hope it works. Doing some generation-skipping gifting as our kids have done pretty well on their own. Nice problem to have for us.....feeling blessed.

Are home prices coming down? Or are they just no longer climbing? I think we’ve hit a plateau here, but haven’t yet seen a decline.


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Are home prices coming down? Or are they just no longer climbing? I think we’ve hit a plateau here, but haven’t yet seen a decline.


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I don't think home prices will come down while they are lowering interest rates and inflation is still an issue. Are you looking to buy?
 
I don't think home prices will come down while they are lowering interest rates and inflation is still an issue. Are you looking to buy?
We've definately seen home sales soften both here in AZ and in MN over the past year. I've seen numerous price reductions. It's definitely more of a buyers market compared to two years ago (when real estate was red hot). Realtors are having more open houses and have to work to sell homes now.
 
We've definately seen home sales soften both here in AZ and in MN over the past year. I've seen numerous price reductions. It's definitely more of a buyers market compared to two years ago (when real estate was red hot). Realtors are having more open houses and have to work to sell homes now.

In several markets there has been a dip in 2023 and 2024. Inflation has tapped out a lot of folks in the US. Other markets are at all-time highs. It really depends where you're looking to buy. Time of year also plays a roll.

If the fed doesn't lower rates, and Trump makes good on his promise to deport millions of people, there could well be a further dip in many housing markets around the country. If the economy improves and rates come down, I'd be inclined to think prices will rise across the country.

If I were looking to buy, I'd dive deep into the factors affecting the location where I was buying. If there is an indication that the Fed will start cutting rates, I would be seriously considering buying in certain markets. These are the conditions I'm waiting for before I get back into real estate. There are so many production facilities being built around the country now. Those people will need somewhere to live, and I'd love to have rentals wherever the economy is booming. Then I'd sell when the market plateaued again.

If I were looking for a home...sheesh, there's a lot to consider before making a decision.
 
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