Stock Market is the bottom in?

[Hoytvectrix]

Had lunch with our banker yesterday. He is pretty astute and connected with the financial markets. He said he believes that we will see 10% prime by the year end. This is being driven by a couple of things... The Fed is concerned that Wall Street is acting like nothing is wrong. Material supply chains still have not recovered and even though real estate has been slowed, too much demand still exists everywhere. Most companies are paying unsustainable premium wages for employees and cost of labor on balance sheets is too high.

The most interesting comment he made is that inflation & employment have an inverse relationship. When employment is high, inflation is low, and when unemployment is high, inflation is low. The belief is that the Fed will continue to push higher prime rate increases in an effort to increase unemployment. Raising interest rates even further will have a wide ranging effect on the economy and unemployment. . Right now the tech industry is the leader in starting lay-offs.

I remember Greenspan using the term "Irrational exuberance" back in the 1990s. Wonder if today's Fed is sensing that ... will be an interesting 2023.

From what I have been reading and hearing, all of the big banks are expecting a slow down in rate hikes, but the fear of a recession is still strong. It would take a substantial increase to 10%. I have more reading (from different sources) to do...

 

[Tree Spud]

From what I have been reading and hearing, all of the big banks are expecting a slow down in rate hikes, but the fear of a recession is still strong. It would take a substantial increase to 10%. I have more reading (from different sources) to do...

One of the concerns is that the Gov't is artificially manipulating the employment markets by paying people not to work. This continues to negatively impact the supply chains. Covid funds are starting to run out and consumer debt is starting to rise.

I too was surprised as I asked if the push was to increase, why only a .25 raise last time? He said that was the mystery of the Fed often comments & actions are hard to match. Powell did say yesterday that goal was to get back to 2% inflation ... the old saying is that you have to crash the economy to reduce inflation is a difficult concept to get one's head around.

 

[SD51555]

From what I have been reading and hearing, all of the big banks are expecting a slow down in rate hikes, but the fear of a recession is still strong. It would take a substantial increase to 10%. I have more reading (from different sources) to do...

I think it's all a big donkey show. That jobs report which is the supposedly the basis to keep cranking the vice tighter was a total work of fiction. I think the fed has us in the ditch already and they're picking up speed as we head towards the cliff. It's going to be interesting to watch as consumers try to roll over their low cost debt with high cost debt to keep their lifestyle going.

 

[bwoods11]

Labor participation is at an all time low. Just heard that today .

 

[yoderjac]

That inverse relationship between the labor market and inflation is historical. Previous experience with inflation excludes major supply chain disruption. I'm not convinced that economists have a good handle on the current inflationary environment. Interest rates is a blunt tool but one of the few available. I think the economic outlook, along with inflation are quite uncertain. Things could go either way.

 

[bwoods11]

That inverse relationship between the labor market and inflation is historical. Previous experience with inflation excludes major supply chain disruption. I'm not convinced that economists have a good handle on the current inflationary environment. Interest rates is a blunt tool but one of the few available. I think the economic outlook, along with inflation are quite uncertain. Things could go either

At least we have the confidence and surety that Biden thinks we have 10 more years of using oil before the Democrats shut it down for Electric vehicles!

 

[jsasker007]

I see the markets being a great opportunity to buy things on sale until we get a REAL president to steer this country in the right direction. About 2 more years to accumulate stocks/shares and then enjoy the ride up!

 

[chummer]

I see the markets being a great opportunity to buy things on sale until we get a REAL president to steer this country in the right direction. About 2 more years to accumulate stocks/shares and then enjoy the ride up!

Still no answer for rigged elections, this fall is far from over.

 

[yoderjac]

Still no answer for rigged elections, this fall is far from over.

Or the faked moon landing!

 

[homerj]

 

[bwoods11]

Still no answer for rigged elections, this fall is far from over.

No way Biden had support ! The late night votes at 3am after election day …in Michigan, Pennsylvania, & Wisconsin were all legit .

It was just simply timing. 130,000 vote dumps is not suspicious! No chance. That brain dead dementia ridden man had a lot of support !!!

 

[yoderjac]

No way Biden had support ! The late night votes at 3am after election day …in Michigan, Pennsylvania, & Wisconsin were all legit .

It was just simply timing. 130,000 vote dumps is not suspicious! No chance. That brain dead dementia ridden man had a lot of support !!!

Don't forget about when he went back in time and killed Kenedy!

 

[bwoods11]

Don't forget about when he went back in time and killed Kenedy!

It’s normal to be down by 800,000 votes in Pennsylvania with 88% reported and the come back and win.. especially when you never campaigned and no one showed up at your events!!

Go to bed Trumps up by millions of votes, but then in morning you wake up and he’s behind ?? Just normal .

 

[yoderjac]

It’s normal to be down by 800,000 votes in Pennsylvania with 88% reported and the come back and win.. especially when you never campaigned and no one showed up at your events!!

Go to bed Trumps up by millions of votes, but then in morning you wake up and he’s behind ?? Just normal .

Just gotta love that self-licking ice cream cone...

 

[bwoods11]

Just gotta love that self-licking ice cream cone...

Thanks to you and your liberal friends for voting for the F … idiot ! Been a disaster beyond imagination!

Worst President in history! Next could be Nukes!

 

[yoderjac]

Thanks to you and your liberal friends for voting for the F … idiot ! Been a disaster beyond imagination!

Worst President in history! Next could be Nukes!

Are you kidding... Biden got zero votes. Nobody voted for him. Trump got 100% of the vote didn't he!

 

[jsasker007]

Everything in my world was going fine under Trump---now, not so much.

 

[bwoods11]

The border was secure, no Russian invasions, gas prices low, inflation low, small and large business confidence was at all time high. NASDAQ averaged 24%—a record ! Less poverty amongst minorities and fewer low income were relying on government!

But the mean tweets !!

 

[chummer]

Are you kidding... Biden got zero votes. Nobody voted for him. Trump got 100% of the vote didn't he!

Don’t you have a Covid test to be taking?

 

[Kooch]

If you guys didn’t keep quoting him I wouldn’t even know Yoder existed.


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