Very interesting conversation. Will be interesting to see how things develop over the next decade.
To delve in over my head, I wonder how govt subsidies fit into the equation ? I saw the other day where over 50% of farmers revenue is govt subsidy based. Without question economics dictate. Do the subsides influence technique? If subsidies weren't there how would ag in America change...crops grown, techniques, the entire scope of the American farm?
Just curious
Government subsidies. I don't know what the equation is. I just looked at the 2017 Census of Agriculture for Virginia. Total net cash farm income was $835 million dollars which includes $60 million from federal farm programs which includes payments for things like CRP and other conservation programs. It might seem a simple statement, but, like with all things accounting, it isn't. So.....
I'll go out on a limb and assert that federal farm programs don't affect technique directly. What they have the potential to do is shift production of certain crops to different areas. It's a subtle manipulation of the profit equation. So, maybe we grow corn on land of marginal value for its production. Enter the Conservation Reserve Program (CRP). What ends up in the program is the land that isn't very valuable from a cost-benefit perspective.
As I mentioned in a previous entry above, if a producer wants the benefits of farm programs, they are required to employ conservation practices as prescribed by NRCS. Do these programs work to achieve their intended purpose? I think we need to have a vigorous debate. Many say we no longer need farm policy. I say, let's give it a try! But, I don't think we'll like the outcome!
We have come a long way toward implementing on-farm practice to conserve soil. As we farm, we can do one of three things. We can mine the soil. We can maintain the soil. Or, we can improve the soil. From where I sit farmers are more sophisticated than they have ever been, and are concerned with and involved in soil improvement. Is everybody all the time? No. But, we're getting better.
Farming in the future...in the next 10 years....will be much different than it is today. Change is slow, and seems non-existent, but it comes. Our understanding of soil will improve. Think about soil sampling, the taking of a dozen cores to represent millions of pounds of soil. Core sampling will fade and sensor driven sampling will prevail. The data it generates will allow a different understanding of the medium in which we grow. Couple that with yield monitors and we'll begin to see areas in fields that we probably ought not be farming - from an economics perspective.
Change. Farmers don't like it. If you change and it doesn't work out you don't have many opportunities to recover. It took a solid 12-years for farmers to fully adopt corn hybrids even though they could see the differences with their own eyes! I'll leave the thought process involved for you to figure out!