Existing Soil Moisture vs Forecasted rain for plantin.

[DRG3]

I am in far west KY ner the ohio River (but not along it). Looking to plant a few mixes of oats and clover or Brassica or Chicory, depending on the plot.

I would consider this coming weekend to be at the front half of our historical planting window here, but would like to plant due to schedules.

Right now we have adequate soil moisture due to lots of recent rain. however, the long term forecast is dry.

Am I better of to go ahead and plant this weekend while there is mosture, or wait a week or even until september. If it doesnt rain then I guess the soil would dry up and the seed would lay dormant until it did start raining again.

So I guess- Am I better to plant now with soil moisture and a bleak rain forecast for the next 14 days.... or wait and hope it starts raining again.

 

[Barndog56]

What method of planting? Broadcasting, drilling,.....?

 

[DRG3]

broadcast and cultipack

 

[Maddog66]

I’m in far northern WI so I’m getting late in the season for fall brassicas. I had the choice last weekend to plant before the rain or wait. Couldn’t wait so I ran the disc over it, packed it, broadcast spread seed and starter fertilizer. Hoping the rain would cover up the seed.

We got an inch of slow rain starting 12 hours later - perfect- but the 10 day is showing very low odds for getting any more soon.

All else being equal, I’ll always plant before a good rain (70% chance or better) than to wait.

If it all goes to hell, I’ll carpet bomb it with WR and start fresh next spring.

 

[FarmerDan]

If you plant early and your planting fails are you willing to do a replant? I guess I'd rather fail earlier than later. I know I'm usually at odds with some of the advice thrown around here and this time is no different. Assuming you're in the right (wide) window I always recommend planting. If you soil is dry, plant. If your soil is wet, plant. But, plant properly. You won't be disappointed (most of the time)!

In my 50+ years of doing this I've only seen production farmers nearly stop because of dryness only two or three times.

 

[T-Max]

If you plant early and your planting fails are you willing to do a replant? I guess I'd rather fail earlier than later. I know I'm usually at odds with some of the advice thrown around here and this time is no different. Assuming you're in the right (wide) window I always recommend planting. If you soil is dry, plant. If your soil is wet, plant. But, plant properly. You won't be disappointed (most of the time)!

In my 50+ years of doing this I've only seen production farmers nearly stop because of dryness only two or three times.

That’s a good observation. They plant into dust and it usually works out.


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[DRG3]

That’s a good observation. They plant into dust and it usually works out.


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Agreed. I hadn’t really thought of that either. I’ve had a couple plots fail because of lack of rain but it’s sure hard to predict

 

[Wind Gypsy]

That’s a good observation. They plant into dust and it usually works out.

There's a but in @FarmerDan's post, "But, plant properly". Lots of things could probably go with that but I'd think getting seed covered in dry conditions is probably more important and not always accomplished by plotters.

 

[DRG3]

As it looks now I intend to plant this weekend. The long range forecast isn't good, but there is good soil moisture right now, and just no telling how accurate that forecast will be.

 

[S.T.Fanatic]

I looked at my planting from last week Thurs/Fri. We did catch a little bit of rain but i haven't seen a thing germinate yet. Starting to look like a plot full of nothing but oats and rye (which the deer usually dont touch)

 

[Bill]

That’s a good observation. They plant into dust and it usually works out.


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My 80 some year old neighbor has a saying. "Plant in the dust and the bin will bust, plant in the mud and it's a dud."

 

[FarmerDan]

I I'm over commenting on this but i am trying to propose a different mindset about seeding, seed germination, and eventual plant growth. There’s a lot can go wrong. Your seed tag probably tells about the number of days to germination. What does germination mean? Its a critical time.

But today a comment about rain. Your forecast might have a probability for rain in a certain amount. With all the detail its very general. Where you plant is a very specific place. Back to that forecast. Its useless to you. On any given day anything can happen. It will rain or it will not. The forecast might aline or it might not. Theres no way to calculate a probability. You take the risk or you dont. The most risk less situation is to leave seed in the bag - but theres no reward. If you plant seed in the bone dry soil it is also riskless. Your seed will wait. But in the soil theres much upside. It will be ready to charge out the gate when its time comes. If you wait you are already behind. My okd farmers said, “Sow in the dust, grow it must!”

 

[Telemark]

I agree forecasts are not very useful. I tend to use the forecast as an indication of when to check NOAA's national and regional Doppler radar loops. That gives me a much clearer picture as to what precipitation I can expect.

 

[Maddog66]

I agree that the forecast can be / is useless on a local level. I think it was only 2 days ago that I posted here that my 10-day looked horrible for moisture. Last night and this morning we got over 2 inches!

I know one thing for sure……Dan’s method is surely the lowest-stress way to go about it. Particularly when you live 200 miles away. ‘Shut up and plant’…..has a nice ring.

 

[bigboreblr]

I pick commn and english plantain around my home and reseed up at camp. You can frost seed. Plantain is tough as a mule. Put some in now, and save some for frost seeding this early spring. It'll grow and spread. Most forage plantain is based on english plantain. Got tons of it in my plot due to mother nature. I consider it an alternative to chicory. Once it get a frost or two, the deer start hitting it good..

 

[4wanderingeyes]

The last couple years I have planted before a rain, the seed would germinate, then no rain for a month and the 1 inch tall seedlings all die. I haven’t had a good food plot in 4 years. But I always plant a combination of wr, oats, and ww for a back up.

 

[bigboreblr]

DRG3,

What was your seed vendoors recommendations on planting times? I got about a 1/2 gallon of mostly english plantain with some common too. Just seed heads from home. Was going to try some in 1 plot where fertility / soil quality is low. Maybe even put it in my best soil quality plot too . Zone 3B and a week before labor day might be pushing establishing a perennial. I go back in december through febuary and can frost seed it too.

I seeded the parking lot / lawn area at a 20 member camp with plantain and clover and some timothy. Any tillage or grading, I have put those seeds up as well as cereal grains in the lot too. April and august. Have frost sseded there too, seems to have helpd but 100% sure how good it does. Took me 3 years to get dandelion established. Late summer is not good planting time for that. Got a bag to frost sseed this winter of that too.

I got a open area that is the end of the snowmobile trail I might seed some in there too. I mainly brush hog that every 2nd or 3rd year to keep it open.

 

[DRG3]

The last couple years I have planted before a rain, the seed would germinate, then no rain for a month and the 1 inch tall seedlings all die. I haven’t had a good food plot in 4 years. But I always plant a combination of wr, oats, and ww for a back up.

Same here. I have had bad luck 2 of the last 3 years. Hopefully this year is better. I planted Saturday