I gotta call you out oak cause this post is about as dramatic and over the top as you can possibly get.
Bucky ... you and the boys certainly got me!
1.
68.7% of the US population IS NOT over the age of 60 in 2016. My late night calulation was an initial attempt to frame this post in relation to ksgobblers post on % of population over 60 ...I goofed; however, if you read closely - instead of playing "gotcha" - you would figure out I used the correct statistic (Let's estimate there are probably at least 70M Americans over 60 years of age in 2020). An absolute number not a percent, Hello ... NOT A PERCENT!
2. We have ZERO clue what the death rate is cause we dont know how many people are infected. Not one damn clue. To go from a couple thousand test kits at the end of January to testing the whole country in under 60 days would be IMPOSSIBLE, and I don't care who the president/king/emperor is. It just flat out impossible.
3. You say you are presenting FACTS, but then go on to estimate that 70M Americans are over the age of 60.
4. The Johns Hopkins data suggested early on that 13-15% of cases required hospitalization. Yesterday that same data said that 4% of cases require hospitalization.
5. We will NEVER know the death rate since we dont know the infection rate. The WHO (World Organization of Health) and all of the experts at CDC are telling us that people can have this and NEVER show any symptoms. Others are just attributing it to a cold or seasonal flu and never get tested.
6. The Surgeon General has said and Dr Brix said in the press conference yesterday that high mortality rates (like the fictional 5% you are assuming) would assume that we took absolutely no protective measures and let the virus rage across the country.
7. There are immense consequences (financial well being, mental health, and other people's physical health from unrelated illness to consider here). I know some of the media darlings and politicians are just appalled at the thought of try to get the economy moving again, but it has huge consequences if we dont. I have known several fellow farmers that committed suicide cause they lost the farm. Same goes for other business owners and people who lose their jobs.
8. I agree with the president that 1 death is unacceptable, especially if it is someone very close to me, but he still has millions and millions of other people, our entire economy, and the well being of our country for decades to come to think about.
9. We have taken the most dramatic steps to slow this crap down that have ever been taken.
10. The president and nobody in this country is to blame for ANY of this.
Yes, but we can
hold people responsible for how they reacted /handled it (their response including timing and adjustments along the wasy
Excluding points 2-9, it ain't worth the effort and not relevant to the point I was attempting to make ... yes, my death rate examples - reasonably low - are ESTIMATES.
How to estimate the US population over 60 in 2020 ...
From .. http://www.silvereco.org/en/statistics
It is commonly accepted that there are about 325 million persons in America; if you use Trumps statement of 350M in his briefing recently, the death numbers I suggesrt get even worse.
Now, being conservative in an estimate, start with figuring 1/5 (20%) of 325M ... 65 Million But the chart above says there are 22.2 % in 2020 NOT 20% ... so we add a few ... 1/5 of 65M is about 9 million ... so conservatively,
I added only 5 more million to my estimate to get to 70 M ... 22.2% times 325 is ACTUALLY over 72 M.
Ya, I know you might find other population estimates for 2020; go do your homewoork and see if you can DRASTICALLY change my numbers. And, when you read something in the future, my advice cis .... look before you leap. I accept your apology!
