Troubles Trees
5 year old buck +
George Floyd died of asphyxiation, he is also listed as a Covid death. See my remarks in my comment above this one and it will be more clear.
Coronavirus
- Thread starter BuckSutherland
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Troubles Trees
5 year old buck +
Here is the NPR article clarifying that they (the CDC) combine positive antibody tests AND positive viral testing that all go into the “new positive cases” category that the “news” constantly clubs is over the head with when reporting “spikes of new cases”.
https://www.npr.org/sections/corona...a-could-create-misleading-picture-of-pandemic
https://www.npr.org/sections/corona...a-could-create-misleading-picture-of-pandemic
Troubles Trees
5 year old buck +
Here is the CDC’s page that shows “some states include both viral and antibody tests as new positive cases” right in the headline and also in the fine print below.
One literally has to check each states reporting methodology to see if they do or not but it’s a testament that the numbers reported are willy nilly and inaccurate. For the record, Florida is one of the states that combines both numbers which may or may not explain the recent spikes, I don’t know that for sure so I’ll reserve my personal opinion there.
The problem is it’s all left up to the states. The CDC should have required states to submit different counts separately. The same goes for the deaths, people want to know how many average Joe’s (otherwise known as the general public) how Covid effects everyone of the deaths like ourselves. 138,000 deaths sounds like a lot until you realize cases like George Floyd are included. The number I can up with doing the math is around 8,000 otherwise healthy people dying from Covid. But you also have to add in that we had over 40,000 deaths before testing was available and states like NY were including “anyone that appeared to have Covid”. Draw your own conclusions there.
https://www.cdc.gov/covid-data-tracker/index.html#testing
One literally has to check each states reporting methodology to see if they do or not but it’s a testament that the numbers reported are willy nilly and inaccurate. For the record, Florida is one of the states that combines both numbers which may or may not explain the recent spikes, I don’t know that for sure so I’ll reserve my personal opinion there.
The problem is it’s all left up to the states. The CDC should have required states to submit different counts separately. The same goes for the deaths, people want to know how many average Joe’s (otherwise known as the general public) how Covid effects everyone of the deaths like ourselves. 138,000 deaths sounds like a lot until you realize cases like George Floyd are included. The number I can up with doing the math is around 8,000 otherwise healthy people dying from Covid. But you also have to add in that we had over 40,000 deaths before testing was available and states like NY were including “anyone that appeared to have Covid”. Draw your own conclusions there.
https://www.cdc.gov/covid-data-tracker/index.html#testing
Catscratch
5 year old buck +
Where exactly are you finding each states tracking and reporting protocols? I would like to look at KS, OK, and TX. Is it on the cdc site or do I need to sort through state pages to find if they are counting one or both tests?
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Troubles Trees
5 year old buck +
It isn't in the CDC information that I have found, I try to pull all my information from the CDC where I can. News articles are full of holes and one sided reporting and most if it stokes fear, and never report any positive or optimistic news. The CDC does say that within the next couple weeks they are going to seperate the antibody test results with the viral test results but I don't know if that is because Trump ordered to have the National Guard collect the data before submitting it to the CDC or not. Virginia was also combining both until it went public and then switched to separating them. Virginia is one of the states I looked for the methodology but couldn't get clarification so I bookmarked an article from Virginia back in May if memory serves. If you google "Virginia will seperate antibody results from total testing" you will find a couple articles about it but nothing clarifying it on the CDC site.
To find out which state combines and which states separate the test results you have to dig through that particular states reporting system guidelines. I found it difficult to get clarity on many states that I looked at but was able to find it with Florida so some states are better with the information than others. I was looking for my states reporting guidelines (NY) and was not able to find that answer.
It was reported a few weeks ago that only 81% of hospitals are reporting all their information gathered but I don't have the particulars there, just figured it was worth mentioning. Also relevant is Florida had 31 testing sites that weren't reporting their negative tests, they were only sending positive tests results which obviously skews the accuracy of rate of infection. Add to that, combining positive viral and antibody test results and it's obvious to any objective mind that those spikes reported recently weren't necessarily accurate.
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chickenlittle
5 year old buck +
I can certainly agree that having a standard, national approach would be helpful.
My understanding was that states started combining antibody and PCR test results to show they had greatly increased testing. But the tests tell you different things and co-mingling is a bad approach.
My understanding was that states started combining antibody and PCR test results to show they had greatly increased testing. But the tests tell you different things and co-mingling is a bad approach.
FarmerDan
5 year old buck +
The data. Data is my life. Empirical evidence rules the day. Unfortunately, data is historic. We look backward to see what might be coming at us. The conclusions aren't always a straight line. Data is objective. It's symbolic. It's up to the user to provide story and interpretation. It's up to the user to understand what the data is intended to represent. Now, here come's the problem. Not all data is verified and validated. Scientists can and have fabricated data, but so too has everyone else. But, just because the data doesn't turn out to be what you think it should doesn't invalidate it or make it useless.
Look, I don't think the pandemic data we are looking at has the precision we might be expecting. And what conclusions to draw are elusive, but the data we have is all we got. To those of you who are skeptics, good for you! To those of you proposing a conspiracy, I'm not there. To those of you using the data to draw informed conclusions and make decisions, good for you too!
Don't laugh at this one. I use a lot of National Weather Service data. Specific rainfall and temperature collections go back more than 100 years. The historic data (let's not get started on forecasts) has been validated and verified an unfathomable number of times. Given time, users have found errors and NWS has corrected the record. And we give a little more latitude to older data than we do to the new.
A hundred plus years of data compared to Covid data. We are now in the day 128 of this pandemic. Of course it's a train wreck! There's no protocol for it! That we have any data is a tribute. There are people, good people, getting it untwisted. I'm not creating the data, but I am using it to inform my agency as it makes decisions about staffing and operational issues.
Finally, I don't think you can debate the data (but you will). What you can debate is what it means and how valid it might be. Don't accept it as it's presented, but do make some effort to understand where we are with it and how it's changing
Here's where I'm at right now. I'm advising decision makers to look at the data with some question. Why the big numbers here, but not here? Is a straight line conclusion justified? Or, is there a (big) bias in the numbers? Having the data and then thinking thru what it means, if anything is, invaluable. I believe the collection process is better, here in Virginia. It's my understanding that each state has its own protocols for reporting and the CDC as well as other organizations are simply aggregating the data with, maybe, some additional analysis / value added. Virginia is in the process of hiring 1,500 additional people to collect and ride herd on the data. Guess what? If you hire that many people and they don't find something, then that is really wrong!
So, are the new increases the result of all the bad behavior pushed by the press? Sure. Some are, but we are getting better at finding and reporting and doing a little validation and verification now. What was hidden before is, perhaps, now more easily recognized. And, with all the attention - the tracing and tracking - of course we will find more. Your state? I dunno. But, a lot of politicians only understand one number. Their popularity rating. Find me a politician who can understand and use objective data to make good decisions and I'll walk to the end of the earth with she or he.
Some of you are right and some of you are wrong. Right now, I cannot tell the difference.
Look, I don't think the pandemic data we are looking at has the precision we might be expecting. And what conclusions to draw are elusive, but the data we have is all we got. To those of you who are skeptics, good for you! To those of you proposing a conspiracy, I'm not there. To those of you using the data to draw informed conclusions and make decisions, good for you too!
Don't laugh at this one. I use a lot of National Weather Service data. Specific rainfall and temperature collections go back more than 100 years. The historic data (let's not get started on forecasts) has been validated and verified an unfathomable number of times. Given time, users have found errors and NWS has corrected the record. And we give a little more latitude to older data than we do to the new.
A hundred plus years of data compared to Covid data. We are now in the day 128 of this pandemic. Of course it's a train wreck! There's no protocol for it! That we have any data is a tribute. There are people, good people, getting it untwisted. I'm not creating the data, but I am using it to inform my agency as it makes decisions about staffing and operational issues.
Finally, I don't think you can debate the data (but you will). What you can debate is what it means and how valid it might be. Don't accept it as it's presented, but do make some effort to understand where we are with it and how it's changing
Here's where I'm at right now. I'm advising decision makers to look at the data with some question. Why the big numbers here, but not here? Is a straight line conclusion justified? Or, is there a (big) bias in the numbers? Having the data and then thinking thru what it means, if anything is, invaluable. I believe the collection process is better, here in Virginia. It's my understanding that each state has its own protocols for reporting and the CDC as well as other organizations are simply aggregating the data with, maybe, some additional analysis / value added. Virginia is in the process of hiring 1,500 additional people to collect and ride herd on the data. Guess what? If you hire that many people and they don't find something, then that is really wrong!
So, are the new increases the result of all the bad behavior pushed by the press? Sure. Some are, but we are getting better at finding and reporting and doing a little validation and verification now. What was hidden before is, perhaps, now more easily recognized. And, with all the attention - the tracing and tracking - of course we will find more. Your state? I dunno. But, a lot of politicians only understand one number. Their popularity rating. Find me a politician who can understand and use objective data to make good decisions and I'll walk to the end of the earth with she or he.
Some of you are right and some of you are wrong. Right now, I cannot tell the difference.
FarmerDan
5 year old buck +
It's a cynical perspective. I prefer Mark Twain. He said, "There are liars, damn liars, and statistics!" Well, I guess that has a sharp edge, too. But, what I tried to do in writing what I wrote was to separate the 'statistics' from the people using them for whatever legitimate or devious purpose.Statistics don't lie; statisticians do! ....... I'm sure you have heard that before.
TreeDaddy
5 year old buck +
It's a cynical perspective. I prefer Mark Twain. He said, "There are liars, damn liars, and statistics!" Well, I guess that has a sharp edge, too. But, what I tried to do in writing what I wrote was to separate the 'statistics' from the people using them for whatever legitimate or devious purpose.
Torture the numbers long enough and they tell you whatever you want them to say..........
bill
jsasker007
5 year old buck +
Supposedly at 2:00 today our infinitely wise governor will implement a state wide mandatory mask policy for anything public.
4wanderingeyes
5 year old buck +
Idiot! It is time to stand up to this idiots demands and not comply!
Bill
Administrator
wait, what?
you’re supposed to throw them away? I’ve worn the same mask for 3 months including 8 separate airplane rides.
4wanderingeyes
5 year old buck +
Funny, my wife and I wandered through Walmart yesterday without masks, no one said a word to us. What we noticed is many used masks, and latex gloves laying on the sidewalks, and parking lot. They are so concerned over others to wear them, that they toss them on the ground for someone else to pick up.
chickenlittle
5 year old buck +
The points you make are exactly the reason why facemasks are now being recommended. As you note, a primary reason recommendation is for someone sick to wear a facemask is to prevent spread of flu to others. The mask recommendation was changed for Covid once it was clear that people who are asymptomatic, pre-symptomatic, or have mild symptoms could be shedding coronavirus and spreading it to others. But since those people think they are healthy, it does no good to recommend that healthy people don't need to wear a mask. By requiring everyone to wear a mask when they can't social distance, you ensure that infectious people are masked and limit their opportunity to infect others.
As a follow-up mask question. Has anyone worn a mask when they had flu-like symptoms? In the house around your family? At work? Out shopping? Ever? Your answers likely show why masks need to be mandated and not left up to personal responsibility. People aren't great at personal responsibility when others get the direct benefit.
Making or changing public health recommendations is complicated. There are the things that are believed to be medically sound and effective based on good experimental data, bad experimental data, logic, and historical dogma. Then there is the cultural and societal aspects of what people will readily do or not do because of cost, convenience, annoyance, habit, etc. We know that social distancing when you can and wearing a mask when you can't will help slow the spread of Covid. As with the flu, putting a mask on someone with the virus helps contain the virus. The difficult part is that we don't know who is Covid-infectious. We need people to wear masks even when they think they are healthy to protect others. No need to argue about whether a mask is good enough to keep you from getting sick or what micron it is. You just need the mask to stop you from unknowingly making others sick.
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H20fwler
5 year old buck +
,
Well heck yes! Haven't you heard, CV is deadly to .06% of the population...it's so bad the whole economy needs shut down and small businesses will just have to go under for the better good. It totally circumvents our constitutional rights but that's OK the ever so honest MSM said we just have to do these things no questions asked. We have to let Governors and mayors dictate what is safe for us no matter what, we are way to stupid to figure it out for ourselves.
So that is why you see biohazard drops for masks and gloves and wipes all over on many corners in most cities to protect us all from this deadly pandemic that only targets people with terminal health issues in the first place. It's also why state and federal government supplies these masks and gloves to us all for free to keep us safe. It has absolutely nothing to do with an election coming up....you will see as soon as that is over how quickly anything changes like ease of restrictions or vaccines.
We may end up with a country that has been destroyed from the inside out but dammit we will have saved lives even though we will never know the true numbers of how many really, that is not important. It is only important that we all comply, it's other peoples safety that we need to worry about they can't do it themselves.
Well heck yes! Haven't you heard, CV is deadly to .06% of the population...it's so bad the whole economy needs shut down and small businesses will just have to go under for the better good. It totally circumvents our constitutional rights but that's OK the ever so honest MSM said we just have to do these things no questions asked. We have to let Governors and mayors dictate what is safe for us no matter what, we are way to stupid to figure it out for ourselves.
So that is why you see biohazard drops for masks and gloves and wipes all over on many corners in most cities to protect us all from this deadly pandemic that only targets people with terminal health issues in the first place. It's also why state and federal government supplies these masks and gloves to us all for free to keep us safe. It has absolutely nothing to do with an election coming up....you will see as soon as that is over how quickly anything changes like ease of restrictions or vaccines.
We may end up with a country that has been destroyed from the inside out but dammit we will have saved lives even though we will never know the true numbers of how many really, that is not important. It is only important that we all comply, it's other peoples safety that we need to worry about they can't do it themselves.
chummer
5 year old buck +
Well...you were at the Walmart.
Troubles Trees
5 year old buck +
You get the big picture! I am not alone here lol It is so hard to make people see that this is ALL political. We have flattened the curve like were asked to do, on deaths and on infections, there are remedies proven to treat symptoms now. Its time to open everything back up unless we are waiting to get the exploited numbers down to zero new infections? Are they asking us to continue doing this until there is a Vaccine? For those that doubt all this, where would you expect this to end, so small business can reopen, and everyone can get back to work and pay their rent and bills? I know a lot of people that are close to losing their houses, I know businesses that are closing their doors for good, I know people that are REALLLLLY STRUGGLING right now. I personally don't know a single person that has contracted Covid.
Our King Andy Cuomo here in NY just yesterday redefined "food in a bar" to make sure people aren't shorting sales by just buying Cuomo Chips while drinking beer. We now have to order an actual meal and the example given was "soup or a sandwich". I don't know any bars that sell soup but that is a moot point. The problem are is NY City, they have said this multipal times, no complaints about us folks upstate, yet the law forces everyone in the state to comply....
As far as I can tell, this is EXACTLY what a tyrannical government would do. The reason given when the law was initally made, was to buy food in a bar, we were told is to "help coax people to follow social distancing and mask laws" which we can now be fined up to $1,000 for :/
For for those of you that don't get it. Picture this, you're at the bar with your friends having some beers after work, you are wearing your mask because it's Friday and its crowded, so in between sips of beer you are wearing your mask but lowering it to drink to comply with the law. Now add eating a meal, while eating, are you pulling down your mask between bites or are you taking it off altogether to eat and be done with it? Either way you are doing the exact opposite thing that the law is trying to supposedly achieve, wearing a mask. If you were just drinking beer you would have your mask up more often than if you were eating, it's common sense to me at least. How the **** does making people order a meal at a bar enforce mask and social distancing laws?
It's insanity to those of us that actually see what is going on here.
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