Alsheimer's rut predictions

[Tree Spud]

I spent the 4th - the 11th about 20 miles from MoBuckChasers place this year. Other than the much warmer than average temperatures during that time frame, the rut was definitely going on good. It was however only going on the coldest hours of the day because of the 70 degree day temps. We seen some bucks during the middle of the day, but not nearly as much movement as what I usually see from the hours of 10-2. Usually I base my hunting around cold fronts, but was unable to do that because of the travel and scheduling aspects.
I agree with NoFo that rut is about the same every year, but the temperatures will play a bigger role on how much of it happens during daylight for everyone to see. High temps, and this stinking "super moon" has a lot of the rut hidden at night. They are doing their thing for sure.
I believe if it was mid - low 40's for highs during the day people would be saying the rut was in full swing the first week of November.

We had multiple 60 deg plus days in late Oct & Nov along with one day it hit 70 degrees last week. That is crazy for Nov here in central Wisconsin. Many high wind days with winds 18-24 mph didn't help either.

Silver lining is many of the big boys are still out there.

 

[shawnv]

My home farm is always split, 11/3-11/4 and 11/11-11/13. I saw action both days, had the buck I wanted within 25yds on the 4th but no clear shot. Come to find out yesterday that he was killed by someone else on the 11th so I wasted the 11th-14th waiting for his return.

Regardless, this is the first year in 5 owning my place that I did not have a buck 3 years or older moving on camera between 8:30am and 4pm.

 

[Bowsnbucks]

It sounds like the rut this year has varied for a number of guys in various locations. It sure was warmer this fall than in most years. Maybe that had a bearing on the intensity of the rut for some of us. For our location, it seems like most of the good activity was after dark, based on lack of daytime seeking / chasing. Our camp's bow hunters repeatedly didn't see or hear any chasing, despite being out every day - either at camp or hunting at their nearby home acreages. Should be some good ones still walking.

 

[hilltopper]

15 does in the food plot on Wednesday night (11/16). No bucks cruised by. Rut totally over in south-central WI. I agree with NoFo about Wisconsin dates. With our warm temps most of our activity was probably at night.
I used to duck hunt a lot. People always talked about the "northern flight." It would happen in a classic way about once every 10 years. But we always thought it should happen that way. The rut is sort of the same way- you get a rut with amazing day time activity and you think it should be that way every year. Too many factors to have it happen just the same...

 

[bigeight]

I expect to see a lot of daylight cruising this coming week with highs around 40° and lows of 26° I think the rut is gonna start on Sunday with a 30° temp drop :)

 

[bigbendmarine]

At the risk of starting WWIII, and promise that's not my desire but Lord help Alsheimer if his prediction is supposed to be somewhat nationwide... take it how you want, but down Florida way we're a *special* bunch. This is the WILDLIFE COMMISSION'S publicly posted rut map.



Lest it seem impossible that much variation exist from nearby point to nearby point, for the 3 seasons I've owned my current place and hunted it, LIKE CLOCKWORK I've seen rubbing, scraping, and light sparring ramp up the last week of October, bucks starting to pursue does the first week of November, max number of big boys appear (albeit often at night on game camera) close to mid-Nov, and things really taper off the initial peak rut by the end of the month. I've got a close trustworthy friend who owns a large parcel 5 miles east of me and each year he's reached out to me in mid-December sharing that he's JUST starting to see bucks move. Stepping even further out on a limb here, but sometime back I read a theory that unique family groupings in our area have unique rutting dates that can vary from another nearby family grouping. Though not recently, I do know that some deer in our area were transported to old plantations from out of state years ago in the hopes of improving genetics. So long story short, rut is all over the place down our way (again, see the FWC map) yet seems fairly predictably (at least among those with whom I've discussed observations) in each exact precise location. Definitely will add that our daytime activity gets impacted by the level of FL heat the deer are experiencing. Gets really cool at peak time, we see more daytime activity... in the upper 80s during the day but 50s in the evenings, bucks use the cooler temps to their advantage. Of course the biggest boys are smart enough that regardless of conditions, the 2am to 3am hours really seem to suit their fancy. Smart creatures for sure.

 

[yoderjac]

At the risk of starting WWIII, and promise that's not my desire but Lord help Alsheimer if his prediction is supposed to be somewhat nationwide... take it how you want, but down Florida way we're a *special* bunch. This is the WILDLIFE COMMISSION'S publicly posted rut map.



Lest it seem impossible that much variation exist from nearby point to nearby point, for the 3 seasons I've owned my current place and hunted it, LIKE CLOCKWORK I've seen rubbing, scraping, and light sparring ramp up the last week of October, bucks starting to pursue does the first week of November, max number of big boys appear (albeit often at night on game camera) close to mid-Nov, and things really taper off the initial peak rut by the end of the month. I've got a close trustworthy friend who owns a large parcel 5 miles east of me and each year he's reached out to me in mid-December sharing that he's JUST starting to see bucks move. Stepping even further out on a limb here, but sometime back I read a theory that unique family groupings in our area have unique rutting dates that can vary from another nearby family grouping. Though not recently, I do know that some deer in our area were transported to old plantations from out of state years ago in the hopes of improving genetics. So long story short, rut is all over the place down our way (again, see the FWC map) yet seems fairly predictably (at least among those with whom I've discussed observations) in each exact precise location. Definitely will add that our daytime activity gets impacted by the level of FL heat the deer are experiencing. Gets really cool at peak time, we see more daytime activity... in the upper 80s during the day but 50s in the evenings, bucks use the cooler temps to their advantage. Of course the biggest boys are smart enough that regardless of conditions, the 2am to 3am hours really seem to suit their fancy. Smart creatures for sure.

The rut is pretty different north and south. In the north, fawns need to be born late enough that there is sufficient food available for does to recover from giving birth and produce sufficient milk. They need to be born early enough that they can develop enough body size to make it through the winter. This seems to make the breeding peak much sharper. In the south, fawns can be born both earlier and later and still make it. Smaller body size is an advantage in the south. The breeding peak in the south seems to be broader and less sharp. We are in between and some years our rut is much more north like and others much more south like.

I believe he draws a single parallel across the US and provides a north and south prediction. But as I said, I don't believe the data really supports moon phase as being a large enough driver to be a good leading indicator for the rut.

Thanks,

Jack

 

[bigbendmarine]

Agreed, Yoderjac, but do find it interesting as relates to theories that amount of daylight alone are triggering dates... again, I think FL is interesting in that counties with pretty much exact same environmental conditions (temps, daylight, rainfall, etc) can have CRAZY variations... we're talking 3 to 4 month peak differences just 30 or so miles apart... yet, interestingly to the theories of year after year repeated patterns we see that too (at least I do) with specific areas having the same pattern even if far different than the area 30 miles away which has its own repeating patter... just during different months.

Truly find the variation interesting and can't help but think it points to some complex factors going on (such as family genetics) more complex than sometimes acknowledged such as daylight alone.

 

[chummer]

Saw one of the biggest bucks of my life yesterday morning chasing 4 does across the neighbors yard. I was 30 yards away hitting the horn and he could care less. Opening day of shotgun is tomorrow. I only have doe tags left but I might sit for a bit. Don't want to miss my first opening day since 5 years old. The problem of filling your tags early...

 

[yoderjac]

Agreed, Yoderjac, but do find it interesting as relates to theories that amount of daylight alone are triggering dates... again, I think FL is interesting in that counties with pretty much exact same environmental conditions (temps, daylight, rainfall, etc) can have CRAZY variations... we're talking 3 to 4 month peak differences just 30 or so miles apart... yet, interestingly to the theories of year after year repeated patterns we see that too (at least I do) with specific areas having the same pattern even if far different than the area 30 miles away which has its own repeating patter... just during different months.

Truly find the variation interesting and can't help but think it points to some complex factors going on (such as family genetics) more complex than sometimes acknowledged such as daylight alone.

Good point. I think to really understand that map, we need to know more about the underlying data. Generally those kinds of maps are generated from fetal measurements from some sampling of deer. The broader the peak, the harder it is to find the peak. The data is reported on the map as a single date which is some estimated peak.

Another thing to consider is that in the north, there is a second minor rut peak. Some does don't get pregnant on the first try and some fawn does don't come into estrus until late. In the south, I see no reason why a similar thing would not happen. However, since the rut is much broader in the south, two peaks are harder to distinguish as they blend together.

Daylight changes can't be the only trigger. We have deer at all kinds of latitudes. At the equator, day length is fixed at about 12 hours and at 60 degrees it varies seasonally between 5 1/2 and 18 1/2 hours. I can see where there are multiple cues that trigger hormonal change. It makes sense that daylight would be a driving trigger in the north and much less important in the south.

One more thing to keep in mind is that we've screwed the pooch when it comes to deer behavior when we started transporting deer between north and south. Genetics well suited for the north have been bought to the south. Since there is no real mating barrier between some sub-species, the whole picture becomes even more complicated.

Undoubtedly and interesting subject, but less important to me personally as I near retirement. I think the major sell behind the moon phase prediction was that one could use the easily predictable lunar table to schedule vacation for hunting. I know that in my area, deer will start chasing as early as late October and most of the activity is in November. Simply being in the woods a few evenings a week let me know when I want to drop everything and sit on stand.

Thanks,

Jack

 

[Steve Bartylla]

Best quote I ever got was from Dr Karl Miller. There are 3 distinct ruts in SC, as many as 9 in TX....They all share the same moon, don't they?

If you want to prove or disprove the moon's impact on the rut, it's actually super easy. Look at multiyear fetus backdating studies from road killed does. the problem is that every single one of them I've ever seen all say the exact same things. the majority of the does are bred in the same time frame in a specific area year after year after year, regardless of the moon phase.

Anecdotal evidence means nothing in this regard. We often confuse buck rutting behavior with when does are getting bred. It's apples and oranges. A cold snap will often make bucks cruise, fight, rub, scrape and chase does like crazy, but that's a lot different than actually breeding a doe. Think of it this way, when you were young, just because you were running around like a rut crazed buck sure didn't mean you'd find a girl willing to give you a second glance. That was often the case for me, anyway.

 

[younggun1849]

I had great action the last 10 days of October, the 25th-31st were crazy, then temps got warm, and I wasn't spending as much time in the woods, but cams were showing mature daytime activity until the 9th, and then they disappeared. I really like the last week of October if temps are right vs first week of November. It seems like those 4yo+ bucks are after the does, but the does aren't ready yet. This snow should get the big ones on food.

 

[yoderjac]

Best quote I ever got was from Dr Karl Miller. There are 3 distinct ruts in SC, as many as 9 in TX....They all share the same moon, don't they?

If you want to prove or disprove the moon's impact on the rut, it's actually super easy. Look at multiyear fetus backdating studies from road killed does. the problem is that every single one of them I've ever seen all say the exact same things. the majority of the does are bred in the same time frame in a specific area year after year after year, regardless of the moon phase.

Anecdotal evidence means nothing in this regard. We often confuse buck rutting behavior with when does are getting bred. It's apples and oranges. A cold snap will often make bucks cruise, fight, rub, scrape and chase does like crazy, but that's a lot different than actually breeding a doe. Think of it this way, when you were young, just because you were running around like a rut crazed buck sure didn't mean you'd find a girl willing to give you a second glance. That was often the case for me, anyway.

Well said Steve. You bring up an important point. Rutting behavior changes depending on population, sex ratio, age class, habitat, and more. Peak breeding can occur an the same date in two years and the rut appear very differently.

Thanks,

Jack

 

[Someday isle]

I tend to agree with the Missouri guys. We had an unusually wet summer followed by a very warm fall. We had eighty and even near 90 degree days during the time that we usually see rutting activity from Halloween weekend through the beginning of firearms season. While there were plenty of scrapes and rubs to be found there just wasn't the daylight activity you'd expect. I think MoBuckChaser is right in his assessment that a lot of activity was probably happening at night.