Stock Market is the bottom in?

[Buckly]

Buddy who is in real-estate and I talked yesterday. He expects interest rates to increase for a year then stabilize, but he expects building materials to keep increasing after that as well as increases in dirt work/grading labor. Also said there is a nation wide shortage of transformers slowing down new builds. He can't believe that with a nation wide shortage to the power grid components that the president is pushing electric vehicles so much.

And what is used in transformers for cooling. Oil of course. I don’t think these people realize that all This push to electric , to build vehicles all the way to infrastructure are creating large petroleum demand.

 

[SD51555]

Both Exxon and Chevron slurped up rivals this week, to the tune of $60 billion each. I own a lot of each one, but I’m also a consumer. I expect these deals will both sail thru with zero anti-trust challenge from the DOJ.

Chevron To Acquire Hess For $53 Billion In Latest Mega Energy Deal | ZeroHedge

ZeroHedge - On a long enough timeline, the survival rate for everyone drops to zero

www.zerohedge.com

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[Tree Spud]

Around here people asking a certain price to sell their homes were offered 50k over the asking price so it wouldn't become a bidding war. I have done more than one deal where I agreed on a price for something and then someone offers more money and it becomes a bidding war. People have no morals anymore. Handshake means nothing. Seems like no one realized that selling their homes or property for more than they thought it was worth didn't register that whatever they want to buy is also going to COST a lot more than it should. Sell your stuff for a profit and go deep in debt to replace it. I have never been one to accuse the general population of being smart. jmo

There is a very interesting/confusing situation in real estate right now.

Currently there is an inventory shortage of homes available for sale which is driving up home costs. Normally when this happens people who see good gains (typically long time owners) will put their property on the market. Inventory levels will rise and may even begin to reduce rising house costs. Simple supply & demand.

The problem is that a) sellers realize that they can't use their prior mortgage interest rate of 4-5% on a new purchase, as rates are now ~8%, b) to sell a larger home they have grown out of and downsize to a smaller home, may cost them near as much as they sell their existing property for so they will eliminate a lot of that gain. While they want to sell to take advantage of high home prices, they don't have a place to go. Renting isn't a great option as rental rates are also extreme. What's the point of selling and making a good gain and then over paying for something that will cost you more?

Last year the average over asking price paid above it on at $470k home was $70k. People who have overpaid, and now are seeing rates at 7-8% are gonna be in trouble. People are now tapping into their 401k's and credit card debt is at an all time high. In short, many people are getting over extended.

I am starting to see prices drop on homes for sale. Tells me we may have hit the tipping point.

 

[SD51555]

There is a very interesting/confusing situation in real estate right now.

Currently there is an inventory shortage of homes available for sale which is driving up home costs. Normally when this happens people who see good gains (typically long time owners) will put their property on the market. Inventory levels will rise and may even begin to reduce rising house costs. Simple supply & demand.

The problem is that a) sellers realize that they can't use their prior mortgage interest rate of 4-5% on a new purchase, as rates are now ~8%, b) to sell a larger home they have grown out of and downsize to a smaller home, may cost them near as much as they sell their existing property for so they will eliminate a lot of that gain. While they want to sell to take advantage of high home prices, they don't have a place to go. Renting isn't a great option as rental rates are also extreme. What's the point of selling and making a good gain and then over paying for something that will cost you more?

Last year the average over asking price paid above it on at $470k home was $70k. People who have overpaid, and now are seeing rates at 7-8% are gonna be in trouble. People are now tapping into their 401k's and credit card debt is at an all time high. In short, many people are getting over extended.

I am starting to see prices drop on homes for sale. Tells me we may have hit the tipping point.

When the air BnB homes start hitting the market, that could kick things into gear and the comps will start bursting valuations.

I stayed at one over the weekend. The entire neighborhood maybe had life in 1 out of 4 properties. One of them was for sale across the road from us. Listed in May at $875k. Knocked down to $850k three weeks ago. And this is in a ski resort town. Still for sale.


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[hesseu]

160 weeks is a long ass time to wait!

Overall, manufacturing lead times are around 25-50% longer than they were 5 years ago. MUCH of this is loss of skilled labor. Truly skilled labor cannot be automated. Widgets, yes. Custom fabricated / built, no.

 

[SD51555]

I am getting my homemade bread reversed on GNRC. Glad I'm only in so deep. I've got room to double up at $80, but that's it. Bought the first batch at $118, second at $80 would drop me down to $99/avg.

 

[jsasker007]

I am getting my homemade bread reversed on GNRC. Glad I'm only in so deep. I've got room to double up at $80, but that's it. Bought the first batch at $118, second at $80 would drop me down to $99/avg.

View attachment 58777

You still have TD? They made me switch over to Schwab months ago. I like TD a lot better.

 

[SD51555]

You still have TD? They made me switch over to Schwab months ago. I like TD a lot better.

They only switched one of mine over so far. The rest go in January I believe.

Yeah, Schwab's platform blows. Too many clicks and too much crap on the screen.

 

[SD51555]

https://twitter.com/x/status/1717262468542509107

 

[Bowsnbucks]

Shove old people in wheel chairs off cliffs, Take away SS. LOL. That’s been the Dems only talking point for the last 100 years every time budget cuts come in to play. I can’t believe people still fall for it. Anyways, specifically regarding SS. If you were to privatize it and just invest it all yourself you’d have those many millions. Those that keep relying on the Government for their investment can have the pathetic 1% they give you back on all your hard earned dollars. Take it out of Government and you not only have more of your money, you also don’t have to have these stupid killing old people discussions.

That's a funny comment considering the many on here who've been bashing the losses in the markets. Believe me, I understand. For the many millions of folks who don't have much money to invest in the first place, at least SS is guaranteed. The stock market is not. I fully realize that great returns can be had by investing in the stock market, but that makes a big assumption - that one has disposable income to invest. Many folks do not have extra money laying around to invest - so what do we do with those folks when they retire?? Hope they die quickly, so they don't become a "burden" on the system?? (BTW - slashing SS, Medicare, & Medicaid is the top stated plan by Republicans to "balance the budget." If those on SS now are having a tough time surviving, how many more millions will be destitute when the cuts made by Republicans come??)

For those who think their 401-K is the perfect answer to a secure future, remember this - markets are not guaranteed - and there is NO federal law saying employers must pay into your 401-K like there is SS via FICA tax. We, as American workers, also pay into SS via that FICA tax, and yes - we are "entitled" to get that money back. It's not like it's a gift from Uncle Sam. We paid into it.

Can better returns than SS be had in the marketplace?? Sure - but the markets can drop like a stone too (notice global wars, invasions / threatened wars) - leaving all of us to wonder what in hell happened to our "dream" secure retirement. Global unrest is wreaking havoc on global markets - not just here in the U.S.

 

[Bowsnbucks]

As for markets & investing - a number of financial planners are beginning to say that since bond prices have fallen so far (and yields have climbed), investing in bonds now / shortly could bring good returns once rates begin to fall. Bond prices vary inversely with interest rates. While waiting for bond prices to rise, investors can reap good yield returns which are at or near 16-year highs. Billions of dollars have moved into I-Shares (Blackrock) 20-year bond ETF fund. ---------- Food for thought.

 

[Buckly]

I’m thinking that by your statements you don’t really understand SS. When you say “ many folks don’t have extra money laying around to invest so what do we do with these folks when they retire”. How SS works: You get out what you pay in. If you didn’t pay in then you get nothing out. If you paid in then you get payed out. SS has nothing to do with people having extra income laying around. And again when you state that “ many millions of people who don’t have much money to invest in the first place.” Again, this would have nothing to do with SS. It’s a payroll tax system.

 

[Bowsnbucks]

I’m thinking that by your statements you don’t really understand SS. When you say “ many folks don’t have extra money laying around to invest so what do we do with these folks when they retire”. How SS works: You get out what you pay in. If you didn’t pay in then you get nothing out. If you paid in then you get payed out. SS has nothing to do with people having extra income laying around. And again when you state that “ many millions of people who don’t have much money to invest in the first place.” Again, this would have nothing to do with SS. It’s a payroll tax system.

Yes - I understand. My reference to "money laying around" would be the case of SS going away like the Republican party has wanted to do since SS's inception. I don't agree with everything the Dem party does either - but any party wanting to leave older folks destitute after working all their lives is just wrong. So if SS were to go away (and SS's not a perfect panacea) - by what method should we make sure older folks aren't destitute in their retirement years?? People say, "they should save for their own retirement." That works as long as they have enough disposable income (money left after daily necessities) to then invest. Considering the pay rates for many folks - they won't have much (if any) money left to invest. Where does that leave millions of honest, hard-working American people??

I'm not for free hand-outs, but how do we insure older folks aren't dirt poor later in life?? What kind of system would work - that's guaranteed they aren't left holding an empty bag?? I just don't want to see that situation unfold.

 

[jsasker007]

Social security money has already been pissed away by the government. Every penny the government spends is our tax dollars being mismanaged by our incompetent government. They have already admitted to the social security funds being depleted and basically wiped out. Our government is basically doing the rob from Peter to pay Paul as they have been for years. If you want to have money you need to have some type of income that the government doesn't know about(CASH). Anything they see on paper they are taking 1/3 but that percentage will be going much higher to pay for the people that are only leaching off of the system. Why should everyone else pay for someone who voluntarily took out a loan for college but thinks someone else should pay it? What do you think will happen to the tax payers when all of this money we're giving away to fund wars in other countries finally trickles down to the overall debt that we have in this country. THE GOVERNMENTS DEBT IS NOT MY DEBT. JMHO

 

[Barndog56]

Republicans don't want to get rid of social security, no matter how many times you repeat it.

Republicans don't want to get rid of social security, no matter how many times you repeat it.

Republicans don't want to get rid of social security, no matter how many times you repeat it.

I would keep repeating that, but I'm sure it will never be enough times for you to accept it.

SOME of them do propose adjustments to the full retirement age, and the income limits for who is eligible for full benefits. And these adjustments are only being proposed due to the out of control government spending. Something has to be done, before everything crashes and social security itself is completely worthless.

 

[Mortenson]

Are life spans still going up? Or did rona put a halt to that. I forget. If lifespan goes up, shouldn't age of retirement be pushed back?

 

[Foggy47]

Lest you believe that a government bond at 5% is good for your future.....and you will cut a fat hog when rates go down..... that knife cuts both ways. I'd like to submit that in the 70's long muni bonds got to 14% and more. So.....IMO......we got a long way to go before rates top-out. IMO.....you either better hold those bonds till they mature......or keep the duration relatively short.

 

[jsasker007]

I don't think anyone wants to know the pathetic numbers of how much we've each paid in versus how much any of us will collect from OUR OWN MONEY. The government has made themselves our personal banker by taking our money and not investing or spending any of it wisely. Immigrants will set this country way back financially. Ukraine doesn't have a plan to pay back any money to the people who are really paying them all that free money. China has been taking our milk money for years. Who is the only president to ever inform the people that other countries are taking advantage of the stupid United States? It starts will "T" and ends with "P". Why do you suppose the one topic that schools don't cover is finances and investing? People that understand how to invest wisely can also retire early, that's a lot of lost revenue for the government so they'd rather keep the people too poor to retire and keep working and paying taxes. jmho

 

[bwoods11]

Dec 31/2020 End of year NASDAQ -12,888
(8600 point gain for Trump in 4 years)

Oct 26/2023 NASDAQ-12,629
(Biden is down 200+ points in 3 years)

 

[Buckly]

Yes - I understand. My reference to "money laying around" would be the case of SS going away like the Republican party has wanted to do since SS's inception. I don't agree with everything the Dem party does either - but any party wanting to leave older folks destitute after working all their lives is just wrong. So if SS were to go away (and SS's not a perfect panacea) - by what method should we make sure older folks aren't destitute in their retirement years?? People say, "they should save for their own retirement." That works as long as they have enough disposable income (money left after daily necessities) to then invest. Considering the pay rates for many folks - they won't have much (if any) money left to invest. Where does that leave millions of honest, hard-working American people??

I'm not for free hand-outs, but how do we insure older folks aren't dirt poor later in life?? What kind of system would work - that's guaranteed they aren't left holding an empty bag?? I just don't want to see that situation unfold.

Again and also again you do not get the concept of SS. It’s your money you’re getting out. You put it in and then you get your pathetic interest rate and then the government gives it back to you Over your expected life span. And heaven forbid if you die early the great and powerful government keeps your money!!!!! Your last paragraph sums up your recollection of the concept that you don’t understand. SS has nothing to do with people being dirt poor later in life.