bwoods11
5 year old buck +
Geez I might have to buy some shares! Sounds very intriguing
Stock Market is the bottom in?
- Thread starter Peplin Creek
- Start date
Bowsnbucks
5 year old buck +
Tech bubble boom / bust ........... year 2000.
Once the Covid pandemic settles down and more people get vaccinated, the economy will bounce back. With the bounce back will come a very pent-up demand for many things. With a return to "normalcy", I believe people will be in a somewhat celebratory mood. Remember ....................... many of this younger generation didn't endure the rationing of food, gasoline, all kinds of metals, silk, nylon, etc., "blacking-out" their home windows (to avoid bombing raids), security checks, and many other things like the folks who lived through WW II did. This whiney, spoiled generation only has had to go without travel and social events - like going to bars, sporting events, workplaces (even though many people can work remotely these days) - for 1 year. 1 year.
I look for many things to BOOM once we - more or less - put Covid in the rear-view mirror. Many of the sectors that are now lagging will once again trend upward. This is the very landscape my actively-managed funds like to prowl. They look for "dogs" with good balance sheets, distressed situations, companies with good management & wide "moats", etc. Consumer goods, cyclicals (an apt name), materials & other current "dogs" will once again rise. No denying the Faaang stocks though. We own them through our index funds and also in our actively-managed funds.
More and more people are in investment vehicles like 401-k's, IRA's (Roth or regular), 403-b, Keogh's, etc., so as more and more retirement money gets invested, I see the long-term trend for markets going up. Bonds, CD's, and MM funds all stink for yield - so what's left (for the avg. investor)?? REIT's that owned large amounts of office and shopping spaces are sunk - or sinking - as more companies and retail are going remote or online.
If Covid - or any of it's mutations and variants hang around, look for more remote working and online business ................................. and any companies that support those possibilities to flourish. Local food growing will be HUGE!! Less hands to handle and move food and so less contamination possibilities.
Once the Covid pandemic settles down and more people get vaccinated, the economy will bounce back. With the bounce back will come a very pent-up demand for many things. With a return to "normalcy", I believe people will be in a somewhat celebratory mood. Remember ....................... many of this younger generation didn't endure the rationing of food, gasoline, all kinds of metals, silk, nylon, etc., "blacking-out" their home windows (to avoid bombing raids), security checks, and many other things like the folks who lived through WW II did. This whiney, spoiled generation only has had to go without travel and social events - like going to bars, sporting events, workplaces (even though many people can work remotely these days) - for 1 year. 1 year.
I look for many things to BOOM once we - more or less - put Covid in the rear-view mirror. Many of the sectors that are now lagging will once again trend upward. This is the very landscape my actively-managed funds like to prowl. They look for "dogs" with good balance sheets, distressed situations, companies with good management & wide "moats", etc. Consumer goods, cyclicals (an apt name), materials & other current "dogs" will once again rise. No denying the Faaang stocks though. We own them through our index funds and also in our actively-managed funds.
More and more people are in investment vehicles like 401-k's, IRA's (Roth or regular), 403-b, Keogh's, etc., so as more and more retirement money gets invested, I see the long-term trend for markets going up. Bonds, CD's, and MM funds all stink for yield - so what's left (for the avg. investor)?? REIT's that owned large amounts of office and shopping spaces are sunk - or sinking - as more companies and retail are going remote or online.
If Covid - or any of it's mutations and variants hang around, look for more remote working and online business ................................. and any companies that support those possibilities to flourish. Local food growing will be HUGE!! Less hands to handle and move food and so less contamination possibilities.
S.T.Fanatic
5 year old buck +
Only 20%?
yoderjac
5 year old buck +
Just a few counter points. Coming out of WWII, people had endured years of austerity coming out of the great depression. We were in a period of sustained economic growth with high debt loads when COVID hit. WWII was about 5 years. With luck, COVID will be about 2 years in the US but probably longer in much of the world. I think you are right that the stimulus the government is applying along with pent up demand will have a short term celebratory effect. But I think that bubble will be short lived. Higher taxes to pay off all the stimulus as well as economic damage, will have a cooling effect on the market. The wealth gap continues to widen. That can only go so far. There is truth in what you say, but I think it is more complex than that.
Thanks,
Jack
SD51555
5 year old buck +
The era of equity and balanced budgets is long over Jac. The only reason taxes will ever be raised again is to punish political enemies. Nothing's getting paid off, and we're not going to pay the interest either.
yoderjac
5 year old buck +
There is a difference between a balanced budget and the overall debt. There comes a point where interest on the debt causes currency devaluation and creditors stop investing in your debt. The counter argument is that other economies are equally or more impacted by COVID and those countries will do the same. If so, our debt may still be more secure.
An every widening wealth gap causes civil unrest reducing faith in the govt. One way to reduce that gap and play the class war political game is for the Dems to raise taxes at the high end of the scale. Whether you call that punishing political enemies or populism (which both sides have been playing lately) , it can have a chilling impact on the market.
Thanks,
Jack
SD51555
5 year old buck +
The point of nobody wanting our debt is here. If it wasn't, the fed wouldn't need to buy up all the new issue.
And they can't hardly raise taxes on the rich while at the same time pumping trillions of dollars of stimulus to the exact same people they're trying to punish. It's more likely they won't be able to quit pumping trillions in stimulus per quarter to keep travel, banking, consumption, autos, and real estate going. Many of them are toast, and nobody is willing to call time of death. Trying to save a few is going to sink the whole fleet.
swat1018
5 year old buck +
I got in today, myself. My Father-in-law is considering it. Thanks for the great tip.
Telemark
5 year old buck +
I mentioned farmland and commodity prices before:
www.investopedia.com
US Farmland Prices Are Rising With Commodity Revenues
Higher revenues from soybean and corn are driving the price of agricultural land higher for the first time in years.
Bowsnbucks
5 year old buck +
Agreed, Jack. I didn't cover EVERY aspect of history concerning the Great Depression and WW II. And I certainly expect that "developed" economies will recover faster than third-world economies will. Relative to economic health, we've been in debt for decades. Remember also that Dick Cheyney said publicly that, "deficits don't matter."
We don't seem to worry about debt when it involves giving HUGE tax breaks to the top 1% and big corporations - some factions let those two groups off pretty lightly. Numbers are numbers .............. they don't know D from R. If we're going to get serious about getting in the black - should we tap HARDER the avg. American, who is just "flush with money" ....................(right???) .................... or should we tap more vigorously on the corporate welfare folks and the top 1% ??? (Remember there are millions more Americans - good folks all - who are working 40+ hours a week and are STILL in poverty). Maybe the way to solve the debt issue is to cut out their Social Security, Medicare, and Medicaid, slash their unemployment benefits, eliminate food stamps, and while we're at it school funding - you know - so future generations can prosper. Perish the thought that multi-MILLIONAIRES and multi- BILLIONAIRES would have to put more $$$ in the pot. After all ............................... they're the ones calling the rest of us LAZY and STUPID. And they CAN'T be wrong ........... correct??
( as concerns the "lazy, stupid" people on food stamps ............... I am personal friends with a young lady who is a physical therapist in a re-hab unit of a hospital. She works many hours each week - more than 40 - and she needs food stamps to feed her young kids. She has marketable skills in the medical field, and yet the corporate mentality of the U.S. is such that she, and others just like her, MUST be kept at a low pay level that rivals "decent pay" back in 1980. She's NOT LAZY and she's NOT STUPID .............. yet she can barely pay her rent, bills, and put food on the table for her kids. She's had kind people help her & her kids for clothes and school supplies. She IS NOT a drug -user either. ) Extra money to save for retirement or kids' college??? Forget that.
The above is why the wealth gap keeps widening. Cut out NECESSARY things for AVG.AMERICANS - of ALL political parties - while handing HUNDREDS of $$$$$$$$ BILLIONS in tax breaks to multi-MILLIONAIRES and multi-BILLIONAIRES. Many of them have made hundreds of BILLIONS more just from the pandemic!!!!!! Statistics folks have determined that the cost of all the Covid - caused medical care, & economic mitigation could be paid for just by the gains in net worth of a relative handful of multi-BILLIONAIRES. - - - - - - - - - But it's FAR better to slash things NECESSARY (not extra luxuries) to AVG. Americans.
MY take going forward - necessary things will outpace things like $1000 to $1500 "smart-phones" and "fit-bit" watches and other tech-y gadgets for the MAJORITY of Americans. As the wealth gap continues to widen to even more INSANE distances, things like safe food sources, shelter, medical / health care, etc. will matter much, MUCH more to the larger demographic. "Toys" will eventually go out of vogue for more people ............................ just because. My eye is on those areas of necessary things - safe food sources/technologies, medical advances/economies (MDTK??), clean safe water/technologies, etc.
With possibly 1.9 trillion of federal funny money yet to flow into the market? I don't think so.
Bill
Administrator
my thoughts exactly and talks of another 2 trillion following that for infrastructure. That 900 billion a few years back didn’t do much infrastructure.
We should be good until the world figures out the US dollar shouldn’t be the worlds reserve.
jsasker007
5 year old buck +
Buy the dips!
Hoytvectrix
5 year old buck +
Another good opportunity to plug non-fiat based investments that won't devalue everytime the printing machines are fired up because there was a change in political power.
SD51555
5 year old buck +
Not anymore. Used to get motely fool dividend investor, or whatever it was called. Those couldn't find a winning stock in a rising market.
What I do now is skim the sector index fund holdings lists for ideas.
