I never post on threads like this as predicting short term movement in the stock market, or any other investment strategy is far beyond my skill set. That said I am on the board of a billion dollar commercial REIT that brought a guest speaker in today to discuss the economy along with longer term R.E. considerations. I found his optimism and insights quite refreshing.Here are some poorly scribed bullet points.
Overall current oil prices are good for our country being the largest producer in the world. Sure it benefits some more than others but on net current pricing helps more than hurts. There are always those that complain when it goes up as well as those that complain going down.
Historically interest rates are quite benign and are essentially the same as 2019. We just tend to compare them to the 13 months of lowest interest rates in history. Unlikely to raise to point of creating problems.
As oil prices come down, which they are now, this will moderate inflation.
Industrial output is running at 4%.
Obviously the covid shut down had a dramatic effect on economy. Coming out of this 2 scenarios 1) Supply comes back faster than demand. And 2) Demand comes back faster than supply...which is what is actually happening and a far better outcome than the alternative.
Currently there is $4 trillion sitting in personal banking accounts, $1 trillion in corporate accounts and $4 trillion available in banks for lending. This will began to be spent and invested having powerful economic impact. He described us as still being in the vapor trail from covid insanity but this will soon start correcting .
Never underestimate the U.S. economy as it trumps politics every time.
He did not discuss the stock market but was clear that smart real estate investing including commercial space looks very bullish for the foreseeable future. He also sees a recovering economy with much upside that currently is being driven by fear holding it back but that will change. I think that parlays into investment opportunity in many areas.
As an alert I'm not smart enough to defend, clarify , elaborate, argue, get all pissy, explain how the horrible govt. will ruin the country, etc.etc.etc. Just an optimistic outlook from a guy much smarter than me.