Telemark
5 year old buck +
I'm not kidding. Do you have a counterargument?
Stock Market is the bottom in?
- Thread starter Peplin Creek
- Start date
I'm not kidding. Do you have a counterargument?
S.T.Fanatic
5 year old buck +
What circumstances are you referring to and what caused said circumstances may I ask?
Telemark
5 year old buck +
1. Huge influx of capital caused by stimulus checks.
2. Massive influx of said capital into the stock market, creating a bubble.
3. Extreme inflation caused by influx of said capital into the economy.
4. Increasing shortage of capital caused by inflation and retirement of Boomers.
5. Sell-off in markets caused by shortage of capital and retirement of Boomers.
6. Recession caused by inflation, retirement of Boomers, Covid-related economic slow-down(supply chain issues especially), stock market bubble, etc.
I think there will be an acceleration of the sell-off as these circumstances become more apparent and cause a feedback loop.
S.T.Fanatic
5 year old buck +
what you listed is entirely caused by government with the exception of boomer retirement and one could argue that the two are indirectly related to a fairly decent extent.
Telemark
5 year old buck +
Cause is not the same as manipulation. I hope you recognize the difference.
S.T.Fanatic
5 year old buck +
Sell-off in markets was more to do with high stock prices than shortage of capital.
I am genuinely asking on this cause i'm not sure how they relate. How does boomer retirement fall into this, what is caused by it, and why
I am genuinely asking on this cause i'm not sure how they relate. How does boomer retirement fall into this, what is caused by it, and why
Telemark
5 year old buck +
I don't have any idea what you mean by that. Could you explain?
S.T.Fanatic
5 year old buck +
sure but your splitting hairs. outcome was exactly the same and they got what they wanted
S.T.Fanatic
5 year old buck +
There were tons of boomers that would have kept right on working if it wasn't for the government restrictions placed on businesses the past few years.
Telemark
5 year old buck +
To your first point:
The sell-off started when the capital ran out. Another round of stimulus checks would have likely continued to inflate prices and the bubble. The SEVERITY of the sell-off (i.e. bear market) is related to the high stock prices (i.e. the bubble). That is to say, the glut of capital caused the high prices, and the dearth of capital caused the bubble to burst.
You haven't really contradicted anything I've said, but you seem to have possibly misunderstood it.
To your question about Boomers retiring:
Retirees withdraw their capital from stocks and put them into more stable and secure "investments" and stores of value.
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Telemark
5 year old buck +
No. Manipulation implies it was done secretly and nefariously. Causation is inherently more neutral in its meaning. The two terms are significantly different. It's not splitting hairs at all.
Telemark
5 year old buck +
There are still plenty of Boomers still working. But that's not the point. The point is that this year the Baby Boomer generation reached retirement age on average. This means that the largest and wealthiest generation is done investing on average. Withdrawal of capital by Boomers is peaking, and they won't be putting it back into stocks.
S.T.Fanatic
5 year old buck +
Again, just asking. I only know JUST ABOUT everything HA. When whos capital ran out?
FarmerDan
5 year old buck +
Rational expectations. That's the base assumption for the learning of financial and economic theory. You know what they say about assumptions. The world is not a rational place - at least not in the short run. The whole premise of governmental fiscal and monetary policy is manipulation of the economy, sometimes rationally, most times, well, there's some debate about how to finish this thought.
It's my interpretation of the situation that the stock market is a place of both legitimate and illegitimate manipulation. The SEC assumes to ferret out the bad players but even they sometimes operate under an illusion. Then there are Generally Accepted Accounting Principles - which are now not followed by a number of companies for the purpose of overstating their profits - and they claim this is a better way to represent results and project into the future. Maybe these are different times - or probably not.
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S.T.Fanatic
5 year old buck +
That is exactly what happened. It was hidden in plain sight all along. Food shortages and high gas prices? countless other examples. Not created for market gains for some extremely wealthy individuals?
SD51555
5 year old buck +
Have a gander at the first chart and paragraph in this write up.
www.zerohedge.com
“Something Breaking” Crash or Fed Capitulation Rally? | ZeroHedge
ZeroHedge - On a long enough timeline, the survival rate for everyone drops to zero
www.zerohedge.com
Wind Gypsy
5 year old buck +
Maybe he doesn't know he's lying?
yoderjac
5 year old buck +
Perhaps it is what he is being compared to... :)
jsasker007
5 year old buck +
If you don't like Trump just go ahead and say it. If that's what you're insinuating? I think the question was about the incompetent president we have NOW.
