If you are referring to just long term on a single parcel, I guess I can see the argument. But in general, in the broad scheme of things, if you remove 20 predators, those 20 predators cant kill fawns.
Say you have 100 square miles, and there is 500 coyotes on that 100 square miles, and each coyote kills an average of 10 fawns each year, that is 5000 fawns dead. If us hunters and trappers killed 100 coyotes, leaving 400 coyotes, times 10 average fawn kills a year equals 4000 fawn kills, equals out to 1000 more fawns in that 100 square miles. Now you do this every year, it will have a large impact on deer numbers.
That is a significant oversimplification of a very complex interaction. It makes a lot of assumptions and does not consider the impacts of coyote removal on coyote recruitment. I understand the logic and it is tempting to oversimplify this. We don't make all our decisions based on science and where science is not clear, we just use our best judgment. I certainly understand that in some more extreme situations predator control may be necessary to keep populations from collapsing.
Here is an nice article from MSU Deer Lab on predators:
http://msudeerlab.com/predators.asp It is a nice overview. It points out that once can have both a high number of predators and high fawn recruitment where habitat is good.
Let me be clear that I'm not opposed to coyote control at all. I just don't want to be deluded into thinking that as a general practice it will improve fawn recruitment.
Here is my own limited and anecdotal experience with coyotes. From 2006 to 2013 while we had coyotes in our general area they did not use our farm regularly. With wireless game cameras we would get one or two night time pictures a year that may have been a coyote or a large fox. We bought our farm in 2006 and began a large scale food plot program. It was a pine farm in a state with little native food and high deer populations. We focused on improving food and shooting every doe we could. In 2013 we had a mast crop failure and our food plots were great. There is no farming other than pasture for about a 3 mile radius so our food plots were the only game in town. From 2006 to 2013 we could not shoot enough does. Every time we shot a doe and left a gap in the social structure, the following summer when food sources dried up, we would get does immigrating from the general area that would stay.
With that mast crop failure in 2013, deer were forced to use our food plots exposing themselves to our hunters. We doubled our highest female harvest that fall. That winter, coyotes moved in and began using our farm on a regular basis. I was getting multiple pictures both day and night of coyotes. At the same time, the general area had a bout of EHD. We did not experience it at our farm but it reduced the numbers dramatically in the general area. With the failed mast crop, our food plots were decimated by the end of the season. The does that were left were in poor health compared to normal as they entered spring fawning. We had fewer twins the next spring and the coyotes took their toll in fawn predation.
We restricted female harvest to a low number for the next two seasons. The other thing that occurred in 2013 was our first large scale habitat timber project. We clear-cut 20 acres of low quality hardwoods for bedding and thinned about 100 acres of pines. In the following year we applied herbicide to the clear-cuts and then did a controlled burn on both clear-cuts and pines. Over the next few years, there has been a significant increase in our BCC. A lot of herbaceous native foods have popped up in our pines and clear-cuts. Fawning cover improved significantly.
Our deer numbers have slowly and steadily been improving. We use the 24/7/365 wireless cameras with solar panels to track population trends. We use Jan - Apr to estimate survival and Sep to estimate recruitment/immigration. Both have been slowly but steadily rebounding. Survival has rebounded faster then recruitment. We are still a bit below our baseline levels but seem to be at a good place for stability. We no longer restrict female harvest but are not in a position of shooting every female deer we see. We shoot coyote when we see them and tried trapping. The trapper was a novice and didn't have much success. We have only removed a few coyotes and still get regular pictures of them. I am seeing more pictures of fawns and twins this year.
This is just my belief, but here it is. When we were the only game in town for deer for 2013, we drew coyotes to our farm as scavengers of both gut piles and unrecovered deer. With poor fawning habitat, their impact the first year or two was significant on recruitment. As our clearcuts and thinned pines developed understory improving fawning habitat, fawn ceased to be an easy target. We still have coyotes but groundhogs, raccoons, foxes, rabbits, mice, and many other creatures have become easier prey for them than fawns. They still have an impact but much less significant.
Thanks,
Jack