Coronavirus

[Buckly]

Anything’s possible I guess. But if there was a proven large scale germ or chemical attack on the US. Whatever Country did it wouldn’t be around to see how it all turned out.

 

[Telemark]

Cuomo was a little pissy in his press conference today. He is not going to let Upstate open 5/1. Doesn’t sound like we will be opening any time soon because he said if opening results in one death he isn’t going to do it. I guess we should stay in forever because anytime you leave your house could be the last time. More importantly he reversed his decision to allow hospitals to open back up for elective surgery. Major D-bag move. My sisters-in-law is devastated. Her doctored called a couple days ago and said they could do her kidney transplant because they could do elective surgery again, not sure how a kidney transplant isn’t essential. They scheduled it with the donor and everything was all set. Dr. Called back today and cancelled saying Cuomo changed his mind and they were not permitted to do surgeries. I get to watch with her and my wife crying for the last hour. He said the call from upstate to open back up is all political. I guess the hiding of his hatred for upstate and Republicans is over.

I have a feeling history will judge him poorly. The news keeps saying what a great job he is doing, but New York is the biggest Corona disaster in the world.

 

[chummer]

I have a feeling history will judge him poorly. The news keeps saying what a great job he is doing, but New York is the biggest Corona disaster in the world.

Well he must of got some serious blow back on the hospital move. Sister-in-law got a call back that they are keeping her scheduled appointment (end of May) in hopes he changes his mind again. The 6pm news said that he was considering reversing his decision yet again.

 

[Knehrke]

Guys - a question and a clarification. Chummer mentioned that Cuomo had walked back his decision to allow elective procedures moving forward for most upstate counties (Erie was excluded, I believe). Could you shoot me a link? I've looked but can't find any mention of it. We are still planning on an April 28th launch. Thanks.

And at the risk of nitpicking, I think that the neuroscientist from Utah stated bluntly, "No, YOU (bar the first Chinese patients in Wuhan) did not have COVID19 prior to Jan 2020." He didn't say that you couldn't have contracted it in this country in January. He said "prior to". That's an important distinction when you're talking about a fast-moving contagion, and I don't see that as being at odds with there being a case or two discovered in early February. IMHO, he's referencing folks who were sick during the Nov/Dec time frame, when it was spreading (and being ignored and mishandled) in China, but so far as the evidence suggests, not here. Regardless, I think we are splitting hairs. My take on your opinion, and correct me if I'm wrong, is that there could have been trans-Pacific communication of the virus prior than has been commonly assumed. And I agree. The Chinese medical professionals who tried to document the outbreak in its early days were muzzled. And we now know that COVID-19 can spread undetected for longer than was previously assumed. Put those together, and it supports your conclusions.

It will be fantastic to get a sense of how far this thing has spread. The preliminary surveys using antibody testing should be available soon, and will shed light on this question. And probably provide fodder for more discussions!! Be well.

 

[chummer]

Guys - a question and a clarification. Chummer mentioned that Cuomo had walked back his decision to allow elective procedures moving forward for most upstate counties (Erie was excluded, I believe). Could you shoot me a link? I've looked but can't find any mention of it. We are still planning on an April 28th launch. Thanks.

And at the risk of nitpicking, I think that the neuroscientist from Utah stated bluntly, "No, YOU (bar the first Chinese patients in Wuhan) did not have COVID19 prior to Jan 2020." He didn't say that you couldn't have contracted it in this country in January. He said "prior to". That's an important distinction when you're talking about a fast-moving contagion, and I don't see that as being at odds with there being a case or two discovered in early February. IMHO, he's referencing folks who were sick during the Nov/Dec time frame, when it was spreading (and being ignored and mishandled) in China, but so far as the evidence suggests, not here. Regardless, I think we are splitting hairs. My take on your opinion, and correct me if I'm wrong, is that there could have been trans-Pacific communication of the virus prior than has been commonly assumed. And I agree. The medical professionals who tried to document the outbreak in its early days were muzzled. And we now know that COVID-19 can spread undetected for longer than was previously assumed. Put those together, and it supports your conclusions.

It will be fantastic to get a sense of how far this thing has spread. The preliminary surveys using antibody testing should be available soon, and will shed light on this question. And probably provide fodder for more discussions!! Be well.

I don’t think he mentioned it in his press conference. That was what was told to my sister in law by the doctor’s office when they called to tell her they had to put off the transplant. Post above explains what happened throughout the rest of the day. Sounds like it might just be some really bad communication between the governor and the hospitals. I expect clarification today. I can’t imagine these doctor’s offices having to call their patients a couple days after they said they could reopen to cancel these surgeries. Calling back on a wart removal is one thing but serious surgeries is another.

 

[Knehrke]

The rest of you? Ignore us. I need to talk to the doc for a couple minutes.

Doc, I too have more than a passing interest in the eventual satisfactory resolution to this problem. I can't talk about it at your level, but I'm sure many of your points are valid. And, I appreciate your persistence, but, somewhere deep in your psyche you know that what people don't understand they will dismiss. I consider myself a scientist. There have never been more scientists alive in the history of mankind than there are today, yet I feel like we are losing the battle of perceptions. Why is that, I ask myself? I think part of it is the narratives we tell and the way we tell them. We just don't do a very good job. I think we'd rather be impressing with all that we know rather than explaining what how we got to what we think we know and what it means - in terms most of us can understand. In football, linemen are linemen for a reason. Maybe that fails the point.

Politicians want to bend the narrative to suit their purposes - and I don't always know their purpose - other than to get re-elected. Journalism today? A joke. There are a few good one's but not many. I guess I'm left to conclude we need to stop and think about what we are saying and how we say it to maintain scientific integrity and not diminish it. I don't know how, but I'm trying to do a better job. If we don't, who will?

Shhhh....I have a model - models, but I usually don't talk about them. Oh, I might say something trivial to start the conversation. Many years ago I started a retirement (financial) model. It's just a spreadsheet. I made heroic assumptions (some would call them stupid) about certain things like future rates of return, how long I might live, but as I got better I saw that I need to adjust my calculations because I came to know more about social security, and other areas that might be important as I approached the age. I had purchased a little aapl when it was the equivalent of about $40. I put a straight line through past prices and found it to look like a good investment. I had no idea it would approach $300. Should I talk about that in terms of exponential rates of returns or would a quadratic have been more appropriate? Nobody wants to know my $40,000 investment is now worth. I don't know. My model wasn't to be predictive of anything. It was to keep me understanding where I'd been and where I had to go. I'd look back and know I had to do some things different. Models can be helpful, but maybe they sit in the background and inform a useful and constructive narrative.

There's so much more I want to share with you. I think the boys and their opinions here are both right and wrong and I can't tell the difference because I don't think we know as much as we think we do - or what we do know isn't very useful. Numbers are not inerrant, not for the problems we have. So, I'm not sure using them does us any good. I hope, as a scientist, you know that the most damning thing that can happen is for another scientist to propose a viable alternative hypothesis to yours while using your data. And here we are.

The only numbers I see that aren't assumed or hypothesized are the Confirmed COVID-19 cases. My understanding is that a lab doing a test and finding a positive for the COVID desease must report that to the state health department. Many think its a useless number for seeing into the future. I think I agree. At least initially, people getting tested were those who probably were infected. It's like seeing a flat tire and then putting a tire gauge on it to confirm it's flat. I'm fascinated by the divergence in confirmed cases going from areas of high population density to lower. At first glance it makes sense, but the alternative hypothesis is there are more tests being performed in urban/suburban areas than in less densely populated areas. Like Fox Mulder said, "I want to believe!" But, I just don't know what to believe.

Well, doc, thanks for your ear. I'm troubled about our ability to tell a better story, a convincing narrative. I appreciate your persistence.

Ok, guys, thanks for that little moment. I think you should do what you want to do. Me, I'm staying in place for a while. At least until Friday morning when I think I'll go turkey hunting.

FarmerDan, I didn't want you to think that I was ignoring you. In fact, I wanted to really think about what you were saying before responding. And I'll tell you - I don't disagree with anything you've written here. Bluntly, you can use the same numbers to support vastly different conclusions, and the devil's in the details. And I think that's why we have so many narratives. But I also know that there is a truth out there, something that we can approach, although perhaps never with 100% certainty. The big problem, and you address it well, is that scientists are used to talking to scientists. And it's just like internet reverb, where they hear echos and think that everybody agrees with them. Or the Enron type smartest guy in the room syndrome where they won't admit that someone who lacks their training could possibly understand what they are saying. To me, that means they lack the ability to convey their thoughts with precision and clarity. There's a guy on Lake Ontario United who has a quote under his avatar, "Always learning or never learning". I like it. If I've ever conveyed the sense that I have all the answers, then I've overstepped. But as a scientist, I'm used to critiquing other people's work, and while I may not have the answers, I can sure as heck tell you when somebody else proposes a flawed argument. At least in my eyes. And that's where we can go round and round. As always, your insights are much appreciated.

 

[Knehrke]

I don’t think he mentioned it in his press conference. That was what was told to my sister in law by the doctor’s office when they called to tell her they had to put off the transplant. Post above explains what happened throughout the rest of the day. Sounds like it might just be some really bad communication between the governor and the hospitals. I expect clarification today. I can’t imagine these doctor’s offices having to call their patients a couple days after they said they could reopen to cancel these surgeries. Calling back on a wart removal is one thing but serious surgeries is another.

Gotcha, thanks. You're likely right. Confusion has been the word of the day for over a month now.

 

[SereneWoods]

Guys - a question and a clarification. Chummer mentioned that Cuomo had walked back his decision to allow elective procedures moving forward for most upstate counties (Erie was excluded, I believe). Could you shoot me a link? I've looked but can't find any mention of it. We are still planning on an April 28th launch. Thanks.

And at the risk of nitpicking, I think that the neuroscientist from Utah stated bluntly, "No, YOU (bar the first Chinese patients in Wuhan) did not have COVID19 prior to Jan 2020." He didn't say that you couldn't have contracted it in this country in January. He said "prior to". That's an important distinction when you're talking about a fast-moving contagion, and I don't see that as being at odds with there being a case or two discovered in early February. IMHO, he's referencing folks who were sick during the Nov/Dec time frame, when it was spreading (and being ignored and mishandled) in China, but so far as the evidence suggests, not here. Regardless, I think we are splitting hairs. My take on your opinion, and correct me if I'm wrong, is that there could have been trans-Pacific communication of the virus prior than has been commonly assumed. And I agree. The Chinese medical professionals who tried to document the outbreak in its early days were muzzled. And we now know that COVID-19 can spread undetected for longer than was previously assumed. Put those together, and it supports your conclusions.

It will be fantastic to get a sense of how far this thing has spread. The preliminary surveys using antibody testing should be available soon, and will shed light on this question. And probably provide fodder for more discussions!! Be well.

In the immortal words of Roseanne Roseannadanna, “Never Mind.”

 

[Buckly]

So I’m sure many of you are watching NY as well as your own States. Antibody testing is starting and supposed to ramp up in the next weeks. 3000 this week. Initial results estimate 2.7 million people have contracted the virus in the State. So that brings the death rate to .5%. They are estimating so far, that average of 10-12 % infection. Higher in NYC. Over 22% and lower upstate The lucky ones that got tested now know they’re good to go. And can also be available for donating plasma. Hopefully I can get in on one of these antibody tests in the next few weeks. It will be interesting as we move into 10,0000-50,000 antibody tests to see if those estimates hold up or change.

 

[chummer]

So I’m sure many of you are watching NY as well as your own States. Antibody testing is starting and supposed to ramp up in the next weeks. 3000 this week. Initial results estimate 2.7 million people have contracted the virus in the State. So that brings the death rate to .5%. They are estimating so far, that average of 10-12 % infection. Higher in NYC. Over 22% and lower upstate The lucky ones that got tested now know they’re good to go. And can also be available for donating plasma. Hopefully I can get in on one of these antibody tests in the next few weeks. It will be interesting as we move into 10,0000-50,000 antibody tests to see if those estimates hold up or change.

Do they take your info on those anti body test and let you know the results. We had a wegmans here where they were doing them but it sounded like they were just taking samples for numbers, as if no name was attached to samples.

 

[Buckly]

They definitely let you know the results.

 

[bueller]

Unless I missed something, testing positive for the antibodies doesn't mean you won't get infected in the future and also doesn't mean that you won't spread the virus to others while being asymptomatic. IMO, until more studies are completed and the results are examined (likely after this pandemic has come and gone) the antibody tests about equate to a psychic palm reading.

 

[chummer]

They definitely let you know the results.

I would like to get tested, I should have went. I didn’t think it was here in February because there were no bodies piling up. Now we find that there may have been bodies piling up in the first week of February. I had something from the SU vs. Duke game 2/1. Flu like symptoms but I had a cough for a month. To my knowledge I have never had the flu in my life. I had a fever for one night and then everything left but the cough. My daughter was with me and she never got a fever but felt crappy for a couple days. 99% chance I didn’t have it but it would be interesting to know. As soon as the get this antibody testing scaled up all those positives can go back to work. Seems like all medical staff should be tested immediately. I would go as far as saying antibody testing should be the bulk of the testing we do going forward.

 

[chummer]

Unless I missed something, testing positive for the antibodies doesn't mean you won't get infected in the future and also doesn't mean that you won't spread the virus to others while being asymptomatic. IMO, until more studies are completed and the results are examined (likely after this pandemic has come and gone) the antibody tests about equate to a psychic palm reading.

And there lies the confusion with this thing. I thought the opposite. I thought a positive only showed a couple days after the virus was gone. They also think it is very unlikely you get it twice within a certain time period, question being how long before you could get it again.

 

[Buckly]

Unless I missed something, testing positive for the antibodies doesn't mean you won't get infected in the future and also doesn't mean that you won't spread the virus to others while being asymptomatic. IMO, until more studies are completed and the results are examined (likely after this pandemic has come and gone) the antibody tests about equate to a psychic palm reading.

not psychic by any means. Where did you get that information? It’s a test that shows if you’ve already had the infection. according to Fauci, There is “reasonable “ expectation you have immunity for a time. They just don’t know how long. Fauci, says “reasonable“ is probably 1-3 years up to lifetime. So no, you can’t spread the virus if you’ve already had the infection. Very important info especially for health care workers. NY plans on rolling out hundreds of thousands of these tests In the coming weeks. These tests also allow the person showing antibodies to donate plasma. There are only a few antibody tests that actually are approved and work. Maybe that’s the confusion. There are a lot of these tests out there mostly from China that are worthless. These particular tests were developed in NY. And these test do not show if you currently have the infection. That was one big criteria. They didn’t want tests that couldn’t tell whether you were still active or past the infection.

 

[Troubles Trees]

Most of the issues people have with King Andy (Cuomo) is attaching his personal agenda with COVID. Things like allowing Bloomberg to release prisoners early that are "at high risk of infection". Everyone is at high risk considering the location of NYC, letting them out of prison doesn't lower the risk, in fact statistically they are/were safer in Prison.. and so were the rest of us.
King Andy closed Public Golf Courses statewide (Upstate) but allowed State ran Golf Courses to stay open initally? Last time I checked, a golf course is a golf course. McDonalds can stay open but Gun Shops he ordered shut :/ (when that was ordered, McDonalds could still have dine in customers) guns are a Constitutional Right and during a pandemic it's a good idea to get one if you don't already own one. He also shut down the approval process for Pistol Permit applications. Not because the offices were closed, I could still do a land acquisition transfer in the same office.
It made me chuckle at last weeks news conference Andy said "you can't spend what you don't have" when explaining why he put a moratorium on NY State employees raises. Andy contributed his share to the $5.4'ish billion debt the state is currently in prior to COVID. He's been spending more than he has in his budget since he took office.

 

[Bill]

Unless I missed something, testing positive for the antibodies doesn't mean you won't get infected in the future and also doesn't mean that you won't spread the virus to others while being asymptomatic.

according to my nurse (wife). Partly true, while the antibody means you may not get sick, it is not known yet how long the antibodies will continue to protect you. 6 months-600 years no one knows yet. Yes asymptomatic people can spread it. And if you don’t have a heavy enough load of the antibody and get reinfected you can be both.

I personally just hope the government remembers we shut down to S L O W the spread, Not to stop it. Because most of us will get it. Roll the dice on whether it’s a mild case or not.

 

[Bill]

My wife has been hoping for a mild case since this began....

she must know something I don’t....

 

[Buckly]

Like Ron Whites comedy routine. “i don’t know how many people it would take to throw me out of the bar? But I know how many they’re going to use. Whatever you or I or anybody thinks about these antibody tests. That’s what they’re going to use

 

[Buckly]

My wife has been hoping for a mild case since this began....

she must know something I don’t....

Thats why I wanted to get to the store where they were having the tests. I was really hoping I already had it and never knew. but I’ll take mild if I have to. LOL