Coronavirus

[chummer]

Resurgence or not it is time. I don’t see what waiting would accomplish. This thing is so contagious why would the resurgence be any different in May, June, July... My County is trying to reopen 5/1 but we need Cuomo to sign off. All the big box stores are packed. Everyone is spending their free money. Still not sure why they didn’t put all the stimulus money into the unemployment fund for people that really need it. I know plenty of people that received checks that are still working and have no business getting a hand out. I also know someone that has been dead for two years that got one. Politicians buying votes and shifting the focus off their actions. I guess we can just let the printer keep on printing.

 

[S.T.Fanatic]

I'd like to see a statistic on of the cases how many of them have free or subsidized insurance. My point being many of us get sick every year. How many of us actually go to the Dr?

 

[Knehrke]

TreeDaddy!

There's a few navels I'd like to contemplate, but thus far being a gene jockey hasn't advanced the cause. Of course, neither has being married for 22 years...

Lots of great points on this thread. It seems like there's widespread agreement that reopening isn't going to be a one-size fits all process. We need to avoid unrecognized community transmission such as occurred in NYC and Italy through being able to rapidly isolate developing clusters, otherwise we will have the same result - log growth and lots of bodies on ice. I'm in as much of a hurry as anyone: my institution is projected to lose hundreds of millions of dollars in revenue (we are a medical university), and the longer we're gone, the more it adds up. I feel blessed to have a job, but there will be sacrifices made across the board to keep both the clinical and research enterprises afloat.

And after 2000 tubes, I can definitively state, "cages" lol.

 

[SereneWoods]

You imply that because there are things we don't know, we can't know anything. That is faulty logic. And your evidence is that, "you can't believe...". It's tough to refute that strong of an argument lol. Okay, sorry, that was snarky. In fact, it's quite possible with a limited, localized outbreak that no infected individuals entered our country early during the pandemic. Or that they did, and that larger sample numbers might show some evidence of such. But to date, the conclusions of the study remain valid, given the present evidence, which is compelling.

Unbiased genome sequencing allows you to develop phylograms, which indicate relationships and distance between samples. You can then follow it backwards to a presumptive origin. It's math, not belief.

I'm sorry if I can't convince you. You have an obvious bias toward "white coats". That's unfortunate, but I'm sure you're in good company. Why would you believe someone who has studied their whole life and is a virology expert? Better to listen to someone who thinks the same way you do. But even if you've given up on us, luckily we haven't given up on you.

My apologies, re-read my post and really didn’t mean to be so snarky. I should learn not to post when in a bad mood (life’s challenges and the like). I actually respect researchers like yourself and the one referenced in your post (I ham-handedly refered to as a white coat). In my defense, I have dealt with a few PHDs in my time that have shown, shall I say, a certain lack of common sense. It is just hard to know who is legitimate and who has an agenda, or is out to make a buck. There also seems to be a lot of science that gets politicized (mostly from biased reporting). And yeah, I do believe the virus had to be passed on early here (simply by statistical odds) because of the numbers of flights of passengers out of China to the US after the spread in Wuhan was getting out of hand (a rate of several thousand a day for over a month adds up to around 100,000). Sometimes basic logic is sufficient without waiting for proof from a research scientist. From my reading I conclude the odds are very high that there was considerable spread in the US by January, possibly in December (maybe even starting in November—since we don’t truly know when the first cases in China we’re, since they covered up and lied a lot in the beginning). There are even early test results (such as in Santa Clara) that indicate greater numbers than predicted (ok, let’s not open the prediction can of worms—I’ll leave that to folks like Baker, several posts later than yours here). I believe in the value of research and scientific method (have even done a little R&D myself—not medical). I know I don’t need to point out to you that scientific method starts out with a theory that you must then devise experiments to prove. Sometimes those theory’s are wrong and you have to alter the theory and devise more tests to prove it. I just get a little put off with a condescending air by some research scientists when their theory turns out to be wrong, or that achieving that perfect proof takes so long that it has been overcome by events.

Truth is, I was a little put off by your lack of consideration for Victor Davis Hanson, someone I consider to be one of the great minds of our time—but don’t go by me, in another post I said the same thing about George Carlin.

 

[chickenlittle]

Maybe I’m behind here but isn’t every business supposed to have a plan in place before they are allowed to open? They’re supposed to have a social distance plan for employees and customers in place. Among other safety precautions. So I don’t really buy into that there’s going to be a big resurgence. Look at all the business that are open now. In Our County all grocery, home improvement, gas and convenience, car rental post office. Delivery. You get the idea. 80% are open and working. There has been no new cases in a week. So again I don’t buy into a huge uptick.

Even with the stay at home order, my county has had the number of confirmed cases jump 6x in the last 2 weeks. So we are worse 5 weeks into the stay at home than we were at the start (but not where we'd have been without social distancing). Hard to think cases wouldn't surge if we re-opened tomorrow and people were interacting more. But the hospitals have capacity and at least one system has even furloughed staff. We'll see how it works out. People will be motivated to be vigilant if the numbers keep rising. And like the Big Flats Lowes, businesses that don't have a good plan can get shut down until they get it together. I hope the counties are putting enough resources toward nursing homes.

 

[Buckly]

That’s not in NY right. I’m just going by your avatar Tioga County. Shows 37 total positives from March 13 to present with 2 fatalities. Population about 50,000
columbia co PA. 208 cases. 7 fatalities. Population about 64,000. I know your concerned but those are pretty low numbers 5 weeks into this.

 

[BuckSutherland]

How is this for social distancing?? Unworked soybean stubble worked up like potting soil, the best I have seen in years. Tomorrow will be the earliest I have planted corn in 5 years. Nice to not battle MUD and slop for once. Too bad none of this stuff is worth shit. There is gonna be a lot of crop get planted in my part of MN in the next week. I will be trying a little bit of no-till soybeans for the first time ever. Morale is pretty awful around the neighborhood.

 

[Buckly]

How’s your timing for a late frost. Or are you just rolling the dice?

 

[bwoods11]

How is this for social distancing?? Unworked soybean stubble worked up like potting soil, the best I have seen in years. Tomorrow will be the earliest I have planted corn in 5 years. Nice to not battle MUD and slop for once. Too bad none of this stuff is worth shit. There is gonna be a lot of crop get planted in my part of MN in the next week. I will be trying a little bit of no-till soybeans for the first time ever. Morale is pretty awful around the neighborhood.



View attachment 29281View attachment 29282View attachment 29283View attachment 29284

Just when you think something is worth nothing....things change and the markets fool you.

 

[Bill]

You guys can talk statistics and models and science and the next wave or the one after that and even point to experts on both sides of the equation until you’re blue in the face.

I’m not saying those things are wrong.

But the common person has stopped listening. I’ve been in CV lockdown for “5” weeks In NJ. I was all in for 15 days to slow the spread. Even sucked it up when they said a little longer. Sure I complain and gripe, but I’m doing it.

I laugh when I see protesters that just got locked down. Well, I laugh and think good for you!! Because I’ve had enough of this shit.

here’s the problem.....politicians who couldn’t get a real job are now in charge and telling us what we can’t do. (This will get ugly.)

example: there’s a 90 acre farm 15 minutes from my house. They grow tulips. It’s spring and tulips are in bloom.

They were letting people book a ticket on line (germ free). And get in their (germ free) car and drive through the farm.

yeah I went, wife wanted to. Can’t see a movie or go to dinner so why not.


The state shut them down because it was considered “a gathering”

complete government over step and that’s what’s going to make this thing worse. We are not stupid but some politicians are treating us just that way.

I’m glad to be here. Don’t know what the real backlash will be but I can’t friggin wait to witness it :)

all I can say is the government never gets anything right and this will be no different.

 

[Buckly]

It’s gone way too far in some of these States. Michigan and California are others along with where your at. If this continues I can see where the Feds step in with troops to stop The overreach. Maybe not this week or next but when stuff like this happens in Virginia in June then your going to see the Attorney General and the President step in. My opinion. As I’ve stated earlier, as States are going to start to reopen and people are getting tired of it, these Governors see their power fading so they are tightening the vice as hard as they can to suppress the people While they can. Cases like this should go right to the Attorney General in my opinion. They should be sued by the Feds. State power over a disaster is not that encompassing. You’re not protecting people so you’ve overstepped. I think Murphy even said he didn’t even consider the bill of rights in any of this. He needs reminded. Either from the people or the Feds one way or another. This isn’t the first week of this. We’re starting to wind it down. Just a power move

 

[Buckly]

This is from our local hospital system. And we’re in LOCKDOWN over this?

Dr. Donald Yealey, UPMC Emergency Medicine chairman, said the UPMC system hasn’t seen a large spike in COVID-19 patients, with 118 total COVID-19 patients across its chain. “That’s very good news,” Yealey said. “People are recovering, even those who are more sick. Let me put this into perspective. We have a 55,000-bed, 40-hospital system. And across that system only 2% of our hospital beds are occupied today by patients with COVID-19 infection. Only 8% of our ICU beds are occupied by COVID-19 patients and only 7% of patients are using a ventilator from our entire ventilator capacity.”

 

[weekender21]

Zero new cases in Hawaii today and the Honolulu mayor just announced the shut down would be extended one month from April 30 (current end) to May 31st. Absolutely ridiculous!


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[ksgobbler]

https://www.cnn.com/2020/04/21/us/coronavirus-rural-hospitals-invs/index.html

 

[TreeDaddy]

TreeDaddy!

There's a few navels I'd like to contemplate, but thus far being a gene jockey hasn't advanced the cause. Of course, neither has being married for 22 years...

Lots of great points on this thread. It seems like there's widespread agreement that reopening isn't going to be a one-size fits all process. We need to avoid unrecognized community transmission such as occurred in NYC and Italy through being able to rapidly isolate developing clusters, otherwise we will have the same result - log growth and lots of bodies on ice. I'm in as much of a hurry as anyone: my institution is projected to lose hundreds of millions of dollars in revenue (we are a medical university), and the longer we're gone, the more it adds up. I feel blessed to have a job, but there will be sacrifices made across the board to keep both the clinical and research enterprises afloat.

And after 2000 tubes, I can definitively state, "cages" lol.

So.......
You justify this "definitive" conclusion on the basis of a consecutive single series,historically based,observational retrospective study and not a double blinded ,randomized controlled trial?

bill

P.S. I used the same study design and agree with the results!!

 

[Knehrke]

My apologies, re-read my post and really didn’t mean to be so snarky. I should learn not to post when in a bad mood (life’s challenges and the like). I actually respect researchers like yourself and the one referenced in your post (I ham-handedly refered to as a white coat). In my defense, I have dealt with a few PHDs in my time that have shown, shall I say, a certain lack of common sense. It is just hard to know who is legitimate and who has an agenda, or is out to make a buck. There also seems to be a lot of science that gets politicized (mostly from biased reporting). And yeah, I do believe the virus had to be passed on early here (simply by statistical odds) because of the numbers of flights of passengers out of China to the US after the spread in Wuhan was getting out of hand (a rate of several thousand a day for over a month adds up to around 100,000). Sometimes basic logic is sufficient without waiting for proof from a research scientist. From my reading I conclude the odds are very high that there was considerable spread in the US by January, possibly in December (maybe even starting in November—since we don’t truly know when the first cases in China we’re, since they covered up and lied a lot in the beginning). There are even early test results (such as in Santa Clara) that indicate greater numbers than predicted (ok, let’s not open the prediction can of worms—I’ll leave that to folks like Baker, several posts later than yours here). I believe in the value of research and scientific method (have even done a little R&D myself—not medical). I know I don’t need to point out to you that scientific method starts out with a theory that you must then devise experiments to prove. Sometimes those theory’s are wrong and you have to alter the theory and devise more tests to prove it. I just get a little put off with a condescending air by some research scientists when their theory turns out to be wrong, or that achieving that perfect proof takes so long that it has been overcome by events.

Truth is, I was a little put off by your lack of consideration for Victor Davis Hanson, someone I consider to be one of the great minds of our time—but don’t go by me, in another post I said the same thing about George Carlin.

Yeah, I know some PhDs whose work isn't even worth using in lieu of toilet paper, too. I appreciate when somebody is able to take a step back and look objectively at the situation, take criticism, and think deeply about a subject. Unfortunately, you have just as many dogmatic idiots in academia as anywhere else. Basically, if there's an agenda behind the conclusion, then it's suspect. But I appreciate your analysis. It is tough to talk science sometimes without sounding pedantic...the first thing I try to teach my trainees is that we need to be active and effective in communicating, or we will be marginalized. My success rate: little column A, little column B.

I think that much of the response to this pandemic was driven by early events, where they was in fact widespread community transmission prior to testing, leading to a logarithmic explosion in cases and overwhelming the health care systems. The fear of that same sequence of events materializing elsewhere drove draconican responses. They actually closed public boat launches in NY - which IMHO was ridiculous. It's since been rescinded. But even though they seem like overkill, perhaps they measure in aggregate were what kept undetected clusters from emerging. As you state, we needed more information - if I hear the terms fluid situation with emerging guidance once more, I might scream. But it's true. Now, we need to use what we know to promote a safe and effective reopening, ASAP. However, that's going to be a different timeline for NYC compared to upstate NY. We need region-specific plans. And we need to prevent this from sneaking up on us again.

Sorry if it appeared I was putting down VDH. I did not intend such. He is a great writer and his military history books are worth reading. My only caveat was that he has a deep political viewpoint, and history is written by the winners, right? Part of his job is to interpret events, and it would be fairly dry reading if he didn't interject some personality into his writing. But that's all I meant. There are liberal historians who lend their interpretation, as well. I take wisdom from whatever source it emerges. I think that I learned the seven dirty words from Carlin lol.

TreeDaddy - what do you suggest as a placebo control? I'm struggling here. I tried planting without tubes or cages, but the deer ate my plantings to the ground and chewed on the flags I'd used to mark them. Most of the trees were put in the ground crooked enough that the deer on my property tend to lean to the side from browsing on them, you'd think I had my eyes closed when I planted. Does that count as double-blind?

 

[SereneWoods]

Yeah, I know some PhDs whose work isn't even worth using in lieu of toilet paper, too. I appreciate when somebody is able to take a step back and look objectively at the situation, take criticism, and think deeply about a subject. Unfortunately, you have just as many dogmatic idiots in academia as anywhere else. Basically, if there's an agenda behind the conclusion, then it's suspect. But I appreciate your analysis. It is tough to talk science sometimes without sounding pedantic...the first thing I try to teach my trainees is that we need to be active and effective in communicating, or we will be marginalized. My success rate: little column A, little column B.

I think that much of the response to this pandemic was driven by early events, where they was in fact widespread community transmission prior to testing, leading to a logarithmic explosion in cases and overwhelming the health care systems. The fear of that same sequence of events materializing elsewhere drove draconican responses. They actually closed public boat launches in NY - which IMHO was ridiculous. It's since been rescinded. But even though they seem like overkill, perhaps they measure in aggregate were what kept undetected clusters from emerging. As you state, we needed more information - if I hear the terms fluid situation with emerging guidance once more, I might scream. But it's true. Now, we need to use what we know to promote a safe and effective reopening, ASAP. However, that's going to be a different timeline for NYC compared to upstate NY. We need region-specific plans. And we need to prevent this from sneaking up on us again.

Sorry if it appeared I was putting down VDH. I did not intend such. He is a great writer and his military history books are worth reading. My only caveat was that he has a deep political viewpoint, and history is written by the winners, right? Part of his job is to interpret events, and it would be fairly dry reading if he didn't interject some personality into his writing. But that's all I meant. There are liberal historians who lend their interpretation, as well. I take wisdom from whatever source it emerges. I think that I learned the seven dirty words from Carlin lol.

TreeDaddy - what do you suggest as a placebo control? I'm struggling here. I tried planting without tubes or cages, but the deer ate my plantings to the ground and chewed on the flags I'd used to mark them. Most of the trees were put in the ground crooked enough that the deer on my property tend to lean to the side from browsing on them, you'd think I had my eyes closed when I planted. Does that count as double-blind?

I know you won’t like the source but, more evidence of spread much sooner than previously thought:

https://www.nationalreview.com/news...rred-three-weeks-earlier-than-first-reported/

 

[Knehrke]

I know you won’t like the source but, more evidence of spread much sooner than previously thought:

https://www.nationalreview.com/news...rred-three-weeks-earlier-than-first-reported/

Yeah, I saw that earlier today. I have no issue with the source. They're reporting the facts. I don't think there's any question that community transmission was occurring earlier than anyone suspected here in the US, otherwise it couldn't have blown up like it did in certain locales. But this is still February we're talking about, not December, and it appears to be quite isolated at that point. I also think that there was community transmission occurring in Wuhan prior to December, as well - covered up by the Chinese government. Our lack of early testing was a key CDC failure IMHO - but nevertheless, the data is consistent with China origin. I have yet to see any evidence that makes me think that there was widespread community transmission in America in December. But I am keeping an open mind, because it's important to know the truth if we are to prevent this from occurring in the futrue.

 

[chickenlittle]

That’s not in NY right. I’m just going by your avatar Tioga County. Shows 37 total positives from March 13 to present with 2 fatalities. Population about 50,000 columbia co PA. 208 cases. 7 fatalities. Population about 64,000. I know your concerned but those are pretty low numbers 5 weeks into this.

Tioga County data from here https://www.tiogacountyny.com/programs-agencies/covid19/ Low incidence in this county but growing. More cases to the north, east, and west. Loosening up will mean more cases. That's ok if the health system holds. And hopefully we won't see much migration from downstate as upstate opens up.

 

[Buckly]

Zero new cases in Hawaii today and the Honolulu mayor just announced the shut down would be extended one month from April 30 (current end) to May 31st. Absolutely ridiculous!


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that’s an impressive number, theres no way they justify shutdown if those numbers stay low to zero over the next couple weeks. Just no way.