Coronavirus

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By the fall we’ll probably have home testing kits at the local grocery! They started antibody testing here in NY today. They were doing at 2 local grocery stores. I didn’t get there but I’m told they were looking for DIVERSE sampling. So I doubt I would have got tested LOL. I see they’re finding from one in LA that something to the tune of 55 times the confirmed cases are believed to have had the virus. They’re going to do 3000 this week here and then thousands after that so it will be interesting.
 
The virus is manageable, the government is NOT. The "cure" is destroying our lives. What's going to happen when kids finally go back to school and the cold/flu season starts again---will we be forced to stay home again?

Think of college graduates trying to find a job in this environment. We took it way too far, I think.
 
If you want that stimulus check to help the economy the most, hire someone for labor, you pass it on to him, then he passes it onto another local person and so on and so forth. If you want it to do the least help, purchase some cheap made in China crap from a box store. The money then just goes into deep pockets, then to China.
 
Home improvement stores and garden centers are packed here. I think it makes perfect sense:

A lot of people have time to do work in the home and garden because everything else is closed. Bars, gyms, shopping malls, etc. are closed here, and with home office and stay-at-home orders there isn't a whole lot else for most people to do.

Chemung County Executive orders Big Flats Lowe’s to close due to social distancing violations This is a couple counties over from me.

BIG FLATS, N.Y. (WETM)- Retail home improvement giant Lowe’s, in Big Flats, is under investigation by the Chemung County Sheriff’s Office, and health department due to social distancing violations.

Around 2:45 pm a heavy police presence appeared at the retail store on County Route 64, upon arrival all customers were forced to leave the store due to violation of social distancing. Officers are directing traffic at this time.

Chemung County Executive Christopher Moss issued a statement saying the store was given several warnings involving violations of orders.
 
The Atlas Shrugged movies are free on youtube right now. Might be a good watch for anyone stuck at home right now. Lots of creepy similarities to what is going on right now.
 
Chemung County Executive orders Big Flats Lowe’s to close due to social distancing violations This is a couple counties over from me.

BIG FLATS, N.Y. (WETM)- Retail home improvement giant Lowe’s, in Big Flats, is under investigation by the Chemung County Sheriff’s Office, and health department due to social distancing violations.

Around 2:45 pm a heavy police presence appeared at the retail store on County Route 64, upon arrival all customers were forced to leave the store due to violation of social distancing. Officers are directing traffic at this time.

Chemung County Executive Christopher Moss issued a statement saying the store was given several warnings involving violations of orders.

Well that was stupid of them. We had an employee at the door and a line outside at our garden center. I can't believe how stupid someone would have to be to get their store closed due to negligence at a time like this.
 
Stimulus checks have been a huge boost to the dispensaries. Extremely long lines here now made even longer because the potheads have to stand 6' apart.
 
If you believe that the virus is responsible for killing them. I would like to know, of the reported deaths, how many of them had a high likely hood of kicking the bucket in 6 months or less regardless.

Yes; hence why I labeled "classified". This is clearly a debatable point in regards to this whole situation.
 
Stimulus checks have been a huge boost to the dispensaries. Extremely long lines here now made even longer because the potheads have to stand 6' apart.

That and yesterday was 4-20

those potheads aren't incredibly deep people
 
The Atlas Shrugged movies are free on youtube right now. Might be a good watch for anyone stuck at home right now. Lots of creepy similarities to what is going on right now.
Dagne Taggart was a babe...
 
First of all, I like Hanson because he is conservative and he has insight based on a lot of history. I’ve found liberals typically can’t write more than a sentence or two without going into their progressive talking points.

The link you supplied is to another lab coat, who starts off with a statement that, bonafides aside, destroys his credibility:

“No, YOU (bar the first Chinese patients in Wuhan) did not have COVID19 prior to Jan 2020. The first documented cases in China were in late November/early Dec 2019. Scientists can “track” the origins of viruses by sequencing their genetic material. Over time, viruses accumulate mutations that make them identifiable.“

From what logic can the statement be made implying the virus couldn’t have been contracted here prior to January and then stating that ”The first documented cases in China were in late November/early Dec 2019.” An earlier link I provided (again, by that politically motivated Dr. Victor David Hanson) points to the facts that thousands of Chinese traveled to this country every day (many on direct flights from Wuhan) in those critical months after those first cases in Wuhan and before the travel ban on January 31st. I can’t believe that it is possible that nobody was infected over the two months that Chinese were traveling to the US while the PRC government was not allowing travel within China in order to control the spread.

The author implies a proof by referencing tracking of gene mutations and the like. OK, so riddle me this? How do you do that without having patient data from early on in the outbreak (I.e., patent zero, or shortly thereafter) when most has been destroyed or withheld by the Chinese. Also, as far as I know, little or no research has been done or provided from reliable sources (decidedly, not the Chinese) on the mutations of this virus (perhaps you can share on research you are privy to). From what I’ve read, one of the promising aspects of fighting this virus is it’s lack of mutating tendencies (unlike the common cold which is anything but common because of the many mutations).

I look forward to your comments Dr. Knehrke.

You imply that because there are things we don't know, we can't know anything. That is faulty logic. And your evidence is that, "you can't believe...". It's tough to refute that strong of an argument lol. Okay, sorry, that was snarky. In fact, it's quite possible with a limited, localized outbreak that no infected individuals entered our country early during the pandemic. Or that they did, and that larger sample numbers might show some evidence of such. But to date, the conclusions of the study remain valid, given the present evidence, which is compelling.

Unbiased genome sequencing allows you to develop phylograms, which indicate relationships and distance between samples. You can then follow it backwards to a presumptive origin. It's math, not belief.

I'm sorry if I can't convince you. You have an obvious bias toward "white coats". That's unfortunate, but I'm sure you're in good company. Why would you believe someone who has studied their whole life and is a virology expert? Better to listen to someone who thinks the same way you do. But even if you've given up on us, luckily we haven't given up on you.
 
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I find this interesting. Haven't seen much about it on news,


Professionals

U.S. Surgeon General Adams dumps Bill Gates / WHO / CDC ‘Predictive Contagion’ Model
Tom Kirkman April 14 in Geopolitics
Reply to this topic
Tom Kirkman + 7,417 Tom Kirkman
April 14
First link here.

In a stunning turn of events, Surgeon General Jerome Adams explained in an interview on live XM radio, that the Coronavirus Task Force has, effectively, dumped the Bill Gates/CDC/WHO predictive contagion model, and is now working with the real data.

He explained on the Sirius XM’s Breitbart News Daily host Alex Marlow, that given the new data, businesses will begin to re-open as early as May, others in June.

This runs contrary to the out-and-out fear-mongering of Dr. Fauci and Bill Gates who have made a media tour, threatening the public that businesses may not re-open for six months to a year, or until and unless governments purchase their conveniently patented, big-pharma vaccination.

According to Dr. Adams:

“What the American people need to know now is we actually have data, and so we’re tracking that data,”

Before this about-face, which appears to have come as an order from the Trump administration in consultation with the findings of Dr. Adams, the task force was working with’predictive models’, which had been created by the Bill Gates dominated WHO and CDC. Dr. Fausti’s control over the CDC has been criticized in the past for its for-profit motive in handling a range of illnesses from HIV to H1NI.

In those inflated, ‘fear-based’ models, the deaths of millions worldwide, and hundreds of thousands in America, were touted. These were used as the basis for what many experts have termed a ‘grossly disproportionate response‘.

Previously, the task force was working with predictive models, frequently criticized because of their tendency to exaggerate the possible effect of the virus on the United States. Models predicting the deaths of millions and hundreds of thousands in America appear to be overblown, as the real-time data is showing the death count much lower.

Adams said that the models usually took data from different cultures and places around the globe, but they were able to track more accurately what could happen in the United States based on real data gathered in places such as California and New York.

“We’re following this data every single day, and we’re giving that data to communities so that they can make informed and intelligent decisions about when and where to reopen,” he said.

A significant indicator for communities being allowed to reopen, Adams said, was actual testing data, not a predictive model.

“I feel confident that some places will start to reopen in May and June. Other places won’t; it will be piece by piece, bit by bit, but will be data-driven,” he said.

Adams praised South Korea and Singapore, which closed their borders early, just like the United States did with travelers from China. But he said there are lessons learned across the board.



========================================

========================================

Sirius interview with Surgeon General here. 18 minutes on Soundcloud.

==================================

==================================



Summary link here.

Surgeon General Jerome Adams called into Sirius XM’s Breitbart News Daily on Monday for an interview with host Alex Marlow.

Here are seven important topics of discussion from the interview:

Here are seven important topics of discussion from the interview:

Masks: Masks don’t prevent you from getting coronavirus but the most important part is to stop people from spreading it. The task force learned that 25–50 percent of Americans are spreading the virus before they have symptoms or ever have symptoms. Save medical masks for the healthcare workers; just use a cloth or make your own mask to cover your face. Don’t touch your mask, readjust your mask, or set it down where the virus can infect anything. Adams also released a video showing Americans how to make their own masks. Watch below:
Herd immunity: It takes two to three or more seasons to build herd immunity to a virus like the coronavirus, Adams said. That’s why federal medical officials are ordering social mitigation until therapeutics and vaccines are developed.
Recurring infections: Can people get coronavirus again after they’ve recovered? Adams said that less than one percent of people have had it recur in the current season. This is why antibody testing is critical for Americans returning to work.
Data vs. Models: The Coronavirus Task Force is now working with real-time data about the country, Adams said, instead of the predictive models that were criticized for being overblown and exaggerated.
Black and Hispanic Americans: Black and Hispanic Americans are more affected by the virus, Adams said, because fewer in those communities have jobs allowing them to telework, and many live in close quarters and multigenerational housing. These communities need to continue practicing the social distancing and personal hygiene guidelines.
Reopening the country: Reopening America will be gradual, not just flipping everything on all at once like a light switch, Adams said. The task force will go through the data and work with local officials to reopen the country.
The struggle to communicate with anti-Trump media: Adams admitted that it was a struggle to communicate with some in the establishment media who are frequently anti-Trump. “One of the things I’m realizing, when I’m standing in the White House next to the president of the United States, when I say things, they’re questioned and people question my authenticity,” he said after journalist Yamiche Alcindor demanded that he correct terms of endearment for elderly relatives that “some people online” were “already offended” by. Adams said his words were “misportrayed” and “mischaracterized.”
“It’s the challenge of communicating in a highly partisan and political environment,” he
 
By the fall we’ll probably have home testing kits at the local grocery! They started antibody testing here in NY today. They were doing at 2 local grocery stores. I didn’t get there but I’m told they were looking for DIVERSE sampling. So I doubt I would have got tested LOL. I see they’re finding from one in LA that something to the tune of 55 times the confirmed cases are believed to have had the virus. They’re going to do 3000 this week here and then thousands after that so it will be interesting.
Yep, it will be interesting. The preliminary analysis in LA suggests many fold more infections than previously thought to exist. That is not surprising, given that most of the PCR-based testing was on presumptive infections. However, let's look at the details, where the devils lie. The particular antibody test used in LA detected 2 sero-positives in 374 negative samples. That number of false positives is an estimate, because aggregate results weren't derived multiple times independently and averaged. Regardless, let's assume that's close. The survey we're discussing found 50 positives among 3900 samples. Simple math tells us that 20 of those were likely false. Of course, that number could vary widely depending on how accurate the test ends up being. Perhaps the authors are completely right. It is simply too early to say. In other words, we need to validate the preliminary findings using multiple bona fide tests with rigorous controls so that we don't jump to the wrong conclusion. The NYC survey, among many others occurring simultaneously, will help. It also illustrates how folks can cherry-pick numbers to support their argument. And why scientists can disagree with each other, without being a bunch of frauds.
 
I find this interesting. Haven't seen much about it on news,


Professionals

U.S. Surgeon General Adams dumps Bill Gates / WHO / CDC ‘Predictive Contagion’ Model
Tom Kirkman April 14 in Geopolitics
Reply to this topic
Tom Kirkman + 7,417 Tom Kirkman
April 14
First link here.

In a stunning turn of events, Surgeon General Jerome Adams explained in an interview on live XM radio, that the Coronavirus Task Force has, effectively, dumped the Bill Gates/CDC/WHO predictive contagion model, and is now working with the real data.

He explained on the Sirius XM’s Breitbart News Daily host Alex Marlow, that given the new data, businesses will begin to re-open as early as May, others in June.

This runs contrary to the out-and-out fear-mongering of Dr. Fauci and Bill Gates who have made a media tour, threatening the public that businesses may not re-open for six months to a year, or until and unless governments purchase their conveniently patented, big-pharma vaccination.

According to Dr. Adams:

“What the American people need to know now is we actually have data, and so we’re tracking that data,”

Before this about-face, which appears to have come as an order from the Trump administration in consultation with the findings of Dr. Adams, the task force was working with’predictive models’, which had been created by the Bill Gates dominated WHO and CDC. Dr. Fausti’s control over the CDC has been criticized in the past for its for-profit motive in handling a range of illnesses from HIV to H1NI.

In those inflated, ‘fear-based’ models, the deaths of millions worldwide, and hundreds of thousands in America, were touted. These were used as the basis for what many experts have termed a ‘grossly disproportionate response‘.

Previously, the task force was working with predictive models, frequently criticized because of their tendency to exaggerate the possible effect of the virus on the United States. Models predicting the deaths of millions and hundreds of thousands in America appear to be overblown, as the real-time data is showing the death count much lower.

Adams said that the models usually took data from different cultures and places around the globe, but they were able to track more accurately what could happen in the United States based on real data gathered in places such as California and New York.

“We’re following this data every single day, and we’re giving that data to communities so that they can make informed and intelligent decisions about when and where to reopen,” he said.

A significant indicator for communities being allowed to reopen, Adams said, was actual testing data, not a predictive model.

“I feel confident that some places will start to reopen in May and June. Other places won’t; it will be piece by piece, bit by bit, but will be data-driven,” he said.

Adams praised South Korea and Singapore, which closed their borders early, just like the United States did with travelers from China. But he said there are lessons learned across the board.



========================================

========================================

Sirius interview with Surgeon General here. 18 minutes on Soundcloud.

==================================

==================================



Summary link here.

Surgeon General Jerome Adams called into Sirius XM’s Breitbart News Daily on Monday for an interview with host Alex Marlow.

Here are seven important topics of discussion from the interview:

Here are seven important topics of discussion from the interview:

Masks: Masks don’t prevent you from getting coronavirus but the most important part is to stop people from spreading it. The task force learned that 25–50 percent of Americans are spreading the virus before they have symptoms or ever have symptoms. Save medical masks for the healthcare workers; just use a cloth or make your own mask to cover your face. Don’t touch your mask, readjust your mask, or set it down where the virus can infect anything. Adams also released a video showing Americans how to make their own masks. Watch below:
Herd immunity: It takes two to three or more seasons to build herd immunity to a virus like the coronavirus, Adams said. That’s why federal medical officials are ordering social mitigation until therapeutics and vaccines are developed.
Recurring infections: Can people get coronavirus again after they’ve recovered? Adams said that less than one percent of people have had it recur in the current season. This is why antibody testing is critical for Americans returning to work.
Data vs. Models: The Coronavirus Task Force is now working with real-time data about the country, Adams said, instead of the predictive models that were criticized for being overblown and exaggerated.
Black and Hispanic Americans: Black and Hispanic Americans are more affected by the virus, Adams said, because fewer in those communities have jobs allowing them to telework, and many live in close quarters and multigenerational housing. These communities need to continue practicing the social distancing and personal hygiene guidelines.
Reopening the country: Reopening America will be gradual, not just flipping everything on all at once like a light switch, Adams said. The task force will go through the data and work with local officials to reopen the country.
The struggle to communicate with anti-Trump media: Adams admitted that it was a struggle to communicate with some in the establishment media who are frequently anti-Trump. “One of the things I’m realizing, when I’m standing in the White House next to the president of the United States, when I say things, they’re questioned and people question my authenticity,” he said after journalist Yamiche Alcindor demanded that he correct terms of endearment for elderly relatives that “some people online” were “already offended” by. Adams said his words were “misportrayed” and “mischaracterized.”
“It’s the challenge of communicating in a highly partisan and political environment,” he

Interesting. Good to know there is another model option because this model has been laughable over the past three weeks.


https://covid19.healthdata.org/united-states-of-america


Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk
 
Just a quick FYI, there are lots of models out there - most of them are well described on the CDC site. In terms of preparedness, the US government chose guidelines suggested by the worst-case scenario, which isn't necessarily the most likely. The media of course focused on those worst-case numbers - if we want to talk fear-mongering, then we should blame the messenger. The epidemiologists were very clear. I watch the 6 o'clock news and laugh at how every time it rains, it's a "dangerous storm". We had a foot of snow in Rochester, and it was like the world ended. It's a joke. But there's nothing sinister about modeling, and emerging guidance. When it comes to predictions, statisticians have a favorite maxim: “All models are wrong, but some are useful.” Her's a link from Penn that does a great job describing new resources and approaches for real-time analysis to predict cluster emergence and mitigation:

https://ldi.upenn.edu/healthpolicys...ing-ahead-covid-19-outbreak-and-safely-easing
 
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Just a quick FYI, there are lots of models out there - most of them are well described on the CDC site. In terms of preparedness, the US government chose guidelines suggested by the worst-case scenario, which isn't necessarily the most likely. The media of course focused on those worst-case numbers - if we want to talk fear-mongering, then we should blame the messenger. The epidemiologists were very clear. I watch the 6 o'clock news and laugh at how every time it rains, it's a "dangerous storm". We had a foot of snow in Rochester, and it was like the world ended. It's a joke. But there's nothing sinister about modeling, and emerging guidance. When it comes to predictions, statisticians have a favorite maxim: “All models are wrong, but some are useful.” Her's a link from Penn that does a great job describing new resources and approaches for real-time analysis to predict cluster emergence and mitigation:

https://ldi.upenn.edu/healthpolicys...ing-ahead-covid-19-outbreak-and-safely-easing


“However we must also avoid the resurgence of cases we’re likely to see as things reopen”

That’s been a consistent perspective from the medical community. The problem is there isn’t a way to avoid these likely resurgences. That’s why some state governments have closures that seem ridiculous.

Obviously we need to do a better job deliberately managing specific areas of concern while allowing other locations to get back to normal, if not there won’t be anything to come back to.


Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk
 
Everyone should know what we are dealing with by now. The health system has had time to learn and prepare. May 1st should start the reopening. If you are at risk (which I am) it is up to you to protect yourself. Enough damage has been done based on models and best guesses. Time to get to work. We will deal with China after the vaccine is found.
 
Re-opening will definitely mean a resurgence in cases. It is just a matter of whether an area can keep case load at a manageable level for the health care system given the mix of tools being used: varying types of social distancing within the community, testing, and contact tracing. I'm not confident many areas have done the work to be ready but we'll know in June who was and who wasn't and needs help.
 
Maybe I’m behind here but isn’t every business supposed to have a plan in place before they are allowed to open? They’re supposed to have a social distance plan for employees and customers in place. Among other safety precautions. So I don’t really buy into that there’s going to be a big resurgence. Look at all the business that are open now. In Our County all grocery, home improvement, gas and convenience, car rental post office. Delivery. You get the idea. 80% are open and working. There has been no new cases in a week. So again I don’t buy into a huge uptick.
 
You imply that because there are things we don't know, we can't know anything. That is faulty logic. And your evidence is that, "you can't believe...". It's tough to refute that strong of an argument lol. Okay, sorry, that was snarky. In fact, it's quite possible with a limited, localized outbreak that no infected individuals entered our country early during the pandemic. Or that they did, and that larger sample numbers might show some evidence of such. But to date, the conclusions of the study remain valid, given the present evidence, which is compelling.

Unbiased genome sequencing allows you to develop phylograms, which indicate relationships and distance between samples. You can then follow it backwards to a presumptive origin. It's math, not belief.

I'm sorry if I can't convince you. You have an obvious bias toward "white coats". That's unfortunate, but I'm sure you're in good company. Why would you believe someone who has studied their whole life and is a virology expert? Better to listen to someone who thinks the same way you do. But even if you've given up on us, luckily we haven't given up on you.

Further,
I have already been using unbiased genome sequencing to develop a phylogram to contemplate my navel.

Rather than follow backward to a presumptive origin, I have extrapolated my findings to the inevitable conclusion of this thread: a blessed flattening of the curve of this metaphysical poppycock and a refocus on the conundrum that binds us all........tubes v cages

bill
 
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