2025 Deer Season Forecast

[356]

This thread continues a three year tradition of attempting to forecast the upcoming deer season.

This is the 8th season on our property, and the doe/buck ratio seems to be much better. So far, all the does are dropping single fawns. The coyotes are out in number. Two target deer survived, and the number of young bucks on camera is encouraging. So, here is my forecast for my 2025 season!

* Early bow season: I am after "Spinster" an old nanny doe that has busted me way too many times. She never has fawns, and is always close to, but not a part of, a family group. 50% chance. After missing her on opening day last year, she never showed up in daylight again. She is back on camera during the day.
* October White Acorn drop: 25% chance of seeing Eleven, my 5 or 6 year old target buck. 35% chance of seeing Dangles, a three year old with an injury. Harvest chance, 10%
* Firearms season: 90% chance that our kids or grandkids will harvest a buck, plus one antlerless.
* Alternative (muzzle loader) season and late season archery: 100% chance of heartbreak based on previous years.

Kids and grandkids: One buck and two antlerless
Me: One anterless, plus a 50% chance of a target buck
Total Harvest at the home property: 4.5

Additionally, I anticipate harvesting one doe at another location, plus one buck (either at home or another property).
Total Harvest at home and other properties: 6


Spinster, my target doe

Eleven, the target buck that shows up on camera each year at the same time/date (always at night). I saw Eleven while hunting on January 12 at about 70 yards during late bow season.

 

[Bowsnbucks]

This thread continues a three year tradition of attempting to forecast the upcoming deer season.

This is the 8th season on our property, and the doe/buck ratio seems to be much better. So far, all the does are dropping single fawns. The coyotes are out in number. Two target deer survived, and the number of young bucks on camera is encouraging. So, here is my forecast for my 2025 season!

* Early bow season: I am after "Spinster" an old nanny doe that has busted me way too many times. She never has fawns, and is always close to, but not a part of, a family group. 50% chance. After missing her on opening day last year, she never showed up in daylight again. She is back on camera during the day.
* October White Acorn drop: 25% chance of seeing Eleven, my 5 or 6 year old target buck. 35% chance of seeing Dangles, a three year old with an injury. Harvest chance, 10%
* Firearms season: 90% chance that our kids or grandkids will harvest a buck, plus one antlerless.
* Alternative (muzzle loader) season and late season archery: 100% chance of heartbreak based on previous years.

Kids and grandkids: One buck and two antlerless
Me: One anterless, plus a 50% chance of a target buck
Total Harvest at the home property: 4.5

Additionally, I anticipate harvesting one doe at another location, plus one buck (either at home or another property).
Total Harvest at home and other properties: 6

View attachment 78048
Spinster, my target doe
View attachment 78049
Eleven, the target buck that shows up on camera each year at the same time/date (always at night). I saw Eleven while hunting on January 12 at about 70 yards during late bow season.

Psssst ....... Eleven is hiding out in an underground cave / bunker, like our biggest bucks do - only to come out at night, as your, and our cams also show. Good luck this coming season - your whole crew!

 

[356]

Psssst ....... Eleven is hiding out in an underground cave / bunker, like our biggest bucks do - only to come out at night, as your, and our cams also show. Good luck this coming season - your whole crew!

Thanks. As I reviewed 2023 and 2024 pictures, the only chance I see for getting Eleven is during early season (Mid-Sept) from the row crops on our property to bedding on the neighbors. About every third day he shows up during the earliest possible shooting light. A ground blind might work if put up early. Access will be a challenge, but with a north wind and planning, it might be possible.

 

[Telemark]

Nice looking deer. Big shoulders.

 

[356]

Management (target) buck “Dangles” with a bachelor group. So far, he seems to have a small home range, which is helpful,
given we have only 85 acres.

 

[356]

Our target bucks are Dangles, who is one tough deer; Eleven who is 5 1/2 and Curly, a deer that may be on the list but likely will be passed to let grow.




Fawn recruitment is lower this year based on camera surveys. Therefore our doe harvest will be selective, and I am going to encourage giving the does with two fawns a pass in early season, and will harvest some of the younger does with one or no fawns and a public or permission doe or two or three to help fill the freezer.

 

[356]

Target deer #1 is Dangles. He looks sad and miserable, but seems healthy. I have not seen Eleven for several weeks, but that is not unusual as our place is at the fringe of his home range.

 

[Bowsnbucks]

^ ^ ^ ^ One-time injury, or genetic freak?

 

[356]

^ ^ ^ ^ One-time injury, or genetic freak?

Most likely a pedicle injury. They grow odd each season.

 

[Turkey Creek]

He would be my target buck, but I like weird antlers.

 

[356]

Dangles, one of my target bucks, is likely dead. This is the last picture of him, and he either has EHD or (most likely) a brain abscess due to his antler injury. Opening day was a bust, with high heat and no deer movement. That said, I am glad the season is upon us.

 

[356]

My target buck is back, and for only the second time I had him on camera during hunting season and hunting light. At 3 minutes before the end of shooting light, he bedded down for over three hours at 20 yards from one of the tower blinds. His location was ideal for capturing any scent, and he tends to use other deer as sentinels, so I am dumbfounded trying to figure out how to make something happen. At the time he was bedded near the blind there were at lease five other deer in the area. These mature bucks sure don't get old because they are dumb...

Here he is getting up from bedding. The camera is on the tower, In another picture, this buck (named Eleven due to parallel G2G3s on the right and he was an 11 pointer) now has 14 countable points. He is a minimum of 5 1/2 years.


There are really no other target bucks on the property. Two 3 1/2 year olds are around - one with real potential and the other somewhat of an antler dud. Based on camera data, the age balance of bucks is not too bad: 50% 1 1/2; 20% 2 1/2; 20% 3 1/2; 10% 4 1/2 or older. We don't have a lot of deer (our NW Mo county is 5th lowest in deer harvest and population in the state), but the buck/doe ratio and age class balance is much improved since starting the Deer Coop four years ago.

 

[Telemark]

My target buck is back, and for only the second time I had him on camera during hunting season and hunting light. At 3 minutes before the end of shooting light, he bedded down for over three hours at 20 yards from one of the tower blinds. His location was ideal for capturing any scent, and he tends to use other deer as sentinels, so I am dumbfounded trying to figure out how to make something happen. At the time he was bedded near the blind there were at lease five other deer in the area. These mature bucks sure don't get old because they are dumb...

Here he is getting up from bedding. The camera is on the tower, In another picture, this buck (named Eleven due to parallel G2G3s on the right and he was an 11 pointer) now has 14 countable points. He is a minimum of 5 1/2 years.
View attachment 83625

There are really no other target bucks on the property. Two 3 1/2 year olds are around - one with real potential and the other somewhat of an antler dud. Based on camera data, the age balance of bucks is not too bad: 50% 1 1/2; 20% 2 1/2; 20% 3 1/2; 10% 4 1/2 or older. We don't have a lot of deer (our NW Mo county is 5th lowest in deer harvest and population in the state), but the buck/doe ratio and age class balance is much improved since starting the Deer Coop four years ago.

This is one of the reasons I got into saddle hunting and bought a bunch of the Gardepro cameras on sale. I wanted to be able to cover an area with cameras quick and cheap, and then be able to hunt anywhere that gave me an advantage.

 

[356]

This is one of the reasons I got into saddle hunting and bought a bunch of the Gardepro cameras on sale. I wanted to be able to cover an area with cameras quick and cheap, and then be able to hunt anywhere that gave me an advantage.

At 64 y.o. and 235# I am not sure if saddle hunting is for me...but it sure would work well. I have lots of cameras (SpyPoints cells) that I get on sale for $30 that provide good intel.

I am planning to either lie in the soybeans this evening for a potential ambush shot, or behind an old downed cottonwood stump I left out for just this purpose. It's mid-80s today (yuk), but he has shown up just at shooting light twice. I'll take the e-bike in, hide it down downwind in the beans.

 

[356]

I enjoyed an enjoyable hunt, despite not seeing the deer I was after. He ended up on camera at 2:30 am.

As I was prepared to harvest doe for the freezer, I had another encounter with a doe I am now calling Nine Lives as she has presented herself several times at 10-20 yard and escaped harvest due to a limb, impossible draw angle or one of her fawns behind her. This picture was taken by a camera about 50 yards from where I was set up. She walked by me several times with one of her fawns directly in front or behind her, never allowing a shot at one of them.



The camera below picked up the two fawns that kept getting in the way of a good shot.


At 5 1/2 years or more, this deer has only been seen once by me in person (last January) and trice on camera during hunting light (January 6 and October 3). Every farmer and neighbor in the area has pictures of him, so he is being targeted by multiple hunters.

 

[Cool Hand Luke]

That’s an awesome buck 356, good luck on your pursuit!

 

[356]

Oct 5: First doe of the season. I've seen does on most of my sits, but this was the first clear shot from a new short tower blind that replaced the old pop up I had been using in this location for several years. The doe was not lactating, and was 2.5 years old.