2025 Deer Season Forecast

[356]

This thread continues a three year tradition of attempting to forecast the upcoming deer season.

This is the 8th season on our property, and the doe/buck ratio seems to be much better. So far, all the does are dropping single fawns. The coyotes are out in number. Two target deer survived, and the number of young bucks on camera is encouraging. So, here is my forecast for my 2025 season!

* Early bow season: I am after "Spinster" an old nanny doe that has busted me way too many times. She never has fawns, and is always close to, but not a part of, a family group. 50% chance. After missing her on opening day last year, she never showed up in daylight again. She is back on camera during the day.
* October White Acorn drop: 25% chance of seeing Eleven, my 5 or 6 year old target buck. 35% chance of seeing Dangles, a three year old with an injury. Harvest chance, 10%
* Firearms season: 90% chance that our kids or grandkids will harvest a buck, plus one antlerless.
* Alternative (muzzle loader) season and late season archery: 100% chance of heartbreak based on previous years.

Kids and grandkids: One buck and two antlerless
Me: One anterless, plus a 50% chance of a target buck
Total Harvest at the home property: 4.5

Additionally, I anticipate harvesting one doe at another location, plus one buck (either at home or another property).
Total Harvest at home and other properties: 6


Spinster, my target doe

Eleven, the target buck that shows up on camera each year at the same time/date (always at night). I saw Eleven while hunting on January 12 at about 70 yards during late bow season.

 

[Bowsnbucks]

This thread continues a three year tradition of attempting to forecast the upcoming deer season.

This is the 8th season on our property, and the doe/buck ratio seems to be much better. So far, all the does are dropping single fawns. The coyotes are out in number. Two target deer survived, and the number of young bucks on camera is encouraging. So, here is my forecast for my 2025 season!

* Early bow season: I am after "Spinster" an old nanny doe that has busted me way too many times. She never has fawns, and is always close to, but not a part of, a family group. 50% chance. After missing her on opening day last year, she never showed up in daylight again. She is back on camera during the day.
* October White Acorn drop: 25% chance of seeing Eleven, my 5 or 6 year old target buck. 35% chance of seeing Dangles, a three year old with an injury. Harvest chance, 10%
* Firearms season: 90% chance that our kids or grandkids will harvest a buck, plus one antlerless.
* Alternative (muzzle loader) season and late season archery: 100% chance of heartbreak based on previous years.

Kids and grandkids: One buck and two antlerless
Me: One anterless, plus a 50% chance of a target buck
Total Harvest at the home property: 4.5

Additionally, I anticipate harvesting one doe at another location, plus one buck (either at home or another property).
Total Harvest at home and other properties: 6

View attachment 78048
Spinster, my target doe
View attachment 78049
Eleven, the target buck that shows up on camera each year at the same time/date (always at night). I saw Eleven while hunting on January 12 at about 70 yards during late bow season.

Psssst ....... Eleven is hiding out in an underground cave / bunker, like our biggest bucks do - only to come out at night, as your, and our cams also show. Good luck this coming season - your whole crew!

 

[356]

Psssst ....... Eleven is hiding out in an underground cave / bunker, like our biggest bucks do - only to come out at night, as your, and our cams also show. Good luck this coming season - your whole crew!

Thanks. As I reviewed 2023 and 2024 pictures, the only chance I see for getting Eleven is during early season (Mid-Sept) from the row crops on our property to bedding on the neighbors. About every third day he shows up during the earliest possible shooting light. A ground blind might work if put up early. Access will be a challenge, but with a north wind and planning, it might be possible.

 

[Telemark]

Nice looking deer. Big shoulders.

 

[356]

Management (target) buck “Dangles” with a bachelor group. So far, he seems to have a small home range, which is helpful,
given we have only 85 acres.

 

[356]

Our target bucks are Dangles, who is one tough deer; Eleven who is 5 1/2 and Curly, a deer that may be on the list but likely will be passed to let grow.




Fawn recruitment is lower this year based on camera surveys. Therefore our doe harvest will be selective, and I am going to encourage giving the does with two fawns a pass in early season, and will harvest some of the younger does with one or no fawns and a public or permission doe or two or three to help fill the freezer.