Wild Turkey population is tanking across most of its range

[SwampCat]

2024 was coincidentally a good poult year up here also, for our precious few hens. Now whether that translates into a good 2025, we'll find out in the next 2 months. If there's a handful of males, I'm planning on having my 11 and 13 yr olds hunt them and we won't take more than 2 total. Have never shot a hen during fall bow season even though it's been tempting.

It is illegal to shoot jakes in our state (except kids) - so it takes two years here for a good hatch to translate to a good season.

In AR, back in the mid 1990’s, Dr Wayne Thogmartin conducted a four year study on Arkansas Declining Wild Turkey - I think it was 1994 - the first year of the study - 30 adult hens and 15 Juvenile hens were fitted with telemetry equipment. ZERO nests were successful out of 45 hen turkeys - that is pretty poor nesting success. Predation was the main direct cause - like always - with Coons and snakes the primary nest predators.

By 2003, we had turkeys everywhere. Killed our state record harvest in 2003 - just ten years after initiation of the study to figure out why they were declining

 

[BenA]

When our turkey population was in a downward spiral, I know an area that kept a ton of turkeys through it all.

Did that area happen to have cattle pastures? It seems areas that have pastures that are almost overstocked or with lots of grazing pressure have good turkey populations (at least that's how I perceived it). Places with bugs that are easy to get to seem to be areas turkeys like to be.

 

[Mortenson]

It is illegal to shoot jakes in our state (except kids) - so it takes two years here for a good hatch to translate to a good season.

In AR, back in the mid 1990’s, Dr Wayne Thogmartin conducted a four year study on Arkansas Declining Wild Turkey - I think it was 1994 - the first year of the study - 30 adult hens and 15 Juvenile hens were fitted with telemetry equipment. ZERO nests were successful out of 45 hen turkeys - that is pretty poor nesting success. Predation was the main direct cause - like always - with Coons and snakes the primary nest predators.

By 2003, we had turkeys everywhere. Killed our state record harvest in 2003 - just ten years after initiation of the study to figure out why they were declining

Jakes are legal. I've never taken one. My 13 won't shoot a jake this year, but I'll probably encourage my 11 to take the first ethical and legal shot. We had a gang of 3 really obnoxious jakes last year. They had big 5" beards. They stuck around, glued at the hip all summer. Hoping they make their return in the coming days.

 

[Catscratch]

Lots of theories about the decline of turkeys, quail, and prairie chickens. Disease, burning practices, grazing practices, change in weather patterns, aerial spraying broadleafs and bugs over pasture, clean harvesting practices, overpopulation of nest predators, etc. I suspect it's not as simple as one of those things, likely a combination. I know that buckdeer1 and I were finding sick and dead birds at the same time (several yrs ago) and in the same regional area.


I do a fair amount of coon trapping. Do not arial spray for broadleafs (spot spray the problem children). Burn on a irregular time scale. And try to have a mosaic of cover. And for all that effort... I still wish I had more birds.

 

[SwampCat]

This is where I get skeptical of numbers. Sometimes I don’t know if they’re manipulated for some agenda or if they are just pulled from a sample where my anecdotal evidence doesn’t lineup with the results. I saw one hen with poults on camera, but that was it. I used to be able to sit on my porch and see a couple birds occasionally in the fields in front of my house. I have not seen one in the last 365 days in front of my house. Four years ago when I bought my place, I heard a bird every month of the year gobble which was pretty cool. This past season there was a couple mornings. I did not hear a single gobble in turkey season.
I raise an eyebrow when I hear organizations put out numbers that don’t lineup with what people are seeing in the field. Ducks unlimited has been saying for years that Mallard numbers are in line with historical averages. I think hunters in Arkansas would beg to differ.

Typically what I see is DU publishing the information USFWS provides - 10.9 mil mallards 2014, 6.6 mil mallards 2024. Those numbers are both from the feds and DU. About a 40% drop in numbers, along with warmer temps, and greater effort by Missouri hunters to hold them - I would say they arent far off. Almost Half as many ducks and more hunters coming to the state does not bode well for AR duck hunting

I am a little skeptical of some of the poult surveys because of the change in gathering data. Poult surveys used to be done by DNR and private citizens who had maybe a little bit above average knowledge of turkeys. Now, states like AR and KY let anyone report what they saw by app. I wonder if those states did it the old fashion way a few years after implementing the APP to compare results.

My area of the state - the southern pine commercial timberland area - has had the highest poult production in our state for several years - but I havent seen evidence of that until this past year. If we could get another couple years in a row of successful production like last year, we would be back in the turkeys.

 

[SwampCat]

Lots of theories about the decline of turkeys, quail, and prairie chickens. Disease, burning practices, grazing practices, change in weather patterns, aerial spraying broadleafs and bugs over pasture, clean harvesting practices, overpopulation of nest predators, etc. I suspect it's not as simple as one of those things, likely a combination. I know that buckdeer1 and I were finding sick and dead birds at the same time (several yrs ago) and in the same regional area.


I do a fair amount of coon trapping. Do not arial spray for broadleafs (spot spray the problem children). Burn on a irregular time scale. And try to have a mosaic of cover. And for all that effort... I still wish I had more birds.

Almost every research result shows, by far, the number one direct cause of declining turkey numbers is poor nesting success due to predation. I have read dozens of these studies, and I cant remember one of them coming to a different conclusion. That said, there are many other non direct influences that could lead to greater predation - poor habitat, poor nesting weather, lack of food causing the hen to have to leave the nest and forage more, drop in other prey species density, causing predators to forage longer and wider - coming across more nests, abandonment of nests after disturbance due to late seasons with large numbers of hunters roaming around the woods - the list is endless. A lot of these indirect causes are very difficult to quantify

I know KS had an increase in poult production last year, and they decreased the number of NR hunters - did that help production or was it a coincidence. I hate that so many states, including ours, swallowed hook line and sinker, Chamberlain’s now debunked theory of late seasons helping turkey poult production. I doubt we ever go back to a decent season opening date.

 

[omicron1792]

I have burned a ton and planted lots of native grass. My place is now covered with turkeys.

It’s habitat.



I think TSS has resulted in many LESS wounded birds.

And I have nothing but good things to say about Grant woods. I email with him some and he has always been happy to help free of charge. Not a thing wrong with someone paying you some money. Happens in every business. No different for his.

 

[SwampCat]

Did that area happen to have cattle pastures? It seems areas that have pastures that are almost overstocked or with lots of grazing pressure have good turkey populations (at least that's how I perceived it). Places with bugs that are easy to get to seem to be areas turkeys like to be.

Not really - just a pretty good mix of woods, AG, and some pastures. My area has a lot of pasture. I have two neighbors, 1200 and 1400 acre respectively with about half that in pasture - and have not seen a turkey in any of those pastures in ten years. We have no AG here - no row crop.

 

[BenA]

Not really - just a pretty good mix of woods, AG, and some pastures. My area has a lot of pasture. I have two neighbors, 1200 and 1400 acre respectively with about half that in pasture - and have not seen a turkey in any of those pastures in ten years. We have no AG here - no row crop.

Yeah, that's too much pasture. The places I've seen tons of turkeys are intermixed big woods and pastures and managed pines.

 

[SwampCat]

I have burned a ton and planted lots of native grass. My place is now covered with turkeys.

It’s habitat.



I think TSS has resulted in many LESS wounded birds.

And I have nothing but good things to say about Grant woods. I email with him some and he has always been happy to help free of charge. Not a thing wrong with someone paying you some money. Happens in every business. No different for his.

No doubt, the habitat makes a difference - but I am in an area that is primarily cattle and timber. We were cover up with turkeys 15 years ago. Fescue pastures, no burning - big bottomland hardwood areas used to be full of turkeys - same habitat now with almost none - up until a year or two ago.

It is fairly widespread across my area. Great hatch last year in a miserable wet spring. Obviously, everyone did not just go out a year ago and improve their habitat. What happened last year that made a difference. So far we know KS, KY, OH, and AR all had improved nesting success last year. What caused that

Yeah, that's too much pasture. The places I've seen tons of turkeys are intermixed big woods and pastures and managed pines.

that is probably typical of our southern counties, in the commercial pine forest area with interspersed pastures - and also the highest poult per hen numbers

 

[Brian662]

This is where I get skeptical of numbers. Sometimes I don’t know if they’re manipulated for some agenda or if they are just pulled from a sample where my anecdotal evidence doesn’t lineup with the results. I saw one hen with poults on camera, but that was it. I used to be able to sit on my porch and see a couple birds occasionally in the fields in front of my house. I have not seen one in the last 365 days in front of my house. Four years ago when I bought my place, I heard a bird every month of the year gobble which was pretty cool. This past season there was a couple mornings. I did not hear a single gobble in turkey season.
I raise an eyebrow when I hear organizations put out numbers that don’t lineup with what people are seeing in the field. Ducks unlimited has been saying for years that Mallard numbers are in line with historical averages. I think hunters in Arkansas would beg to differ.

Duck migrations are dependent on food availability, open water, pressure, and daylight. Those aren't static year over year except for daylight.

Turkeys on the other hand, they don't migrate.

 

[omicron1792]

No doubt, the habitat makes a difference - but I am in an area that is primarily cattle and timber. We were cover up with turkeys 15 years ago. Fescue pastures, no burning - big bottomland hardwood areas used to be full of turkeys - same habitat now with almost none - up until a year or two ago.

It is fairly widespread across my area. Great hatch last year in a miserable wet spring. Obviously, everyone did not just go out a year ago and improve their habitat. What happened last year that made a difference. So far we know KS, KY, OH, and AR all had improved nesting success last year. What caused that

that is probably typical of our southern counties, in the commercial pine forest area with interspersed pastures - and also the highest poult per hen numbers

My guess is yall had been in drought and the wet spring helped.

Also lots of factors change year to year. Kind of like the weather. But long term the change in habitat is what effects turkey success the most, imo of course.

 

[omicron1792]

Duck migrations are dependent on food availability, open water, pressure, and daylight. Those aren't static year over year except for daylight.

Turkeys on the other hand, they don't migrate.

Truth. But it does seem that local changes in weather (or maybe something else) can affect one years poult vs the next.

Here a rise in predators had negative effect on turkey. But with rise of predator hunting the turkey seem to be improving also.

 

[SwampCat]

My guess is yall had been in drought and the wet spring helped.

Also lots of factors change year to year. Kind of like the weather. But long term the change in habitat is what effects turkey success the most, imo of course.

We have had wet springs for the last five years. I used to plant beans in my bottom foodplots. Cant get a tractor down there until July the past five years. I am planting trees yesterday and today on a ridge top 200 ft above the bottoms. I have three tractors and two augers with three different sized bits and I am having to dig the holes by hand because it is too wet to get a tractor out of the yard - and that is normal - now. What everyone else calls a drought is normal for us - last summer was fairly hot and dry - But the summer before was probably even cool for us - very few 100 degree temps. Hot and dry is just normal - it has to be something really extra ordinary. Last year we had a super wet spring and hot dry summer - the very opposite of what you would think would be a good poult production year.

Other parts of the state that do not get nearly the spring rain also had good hatches. It s widespread, regardless of statewide weather patterns. But I agree, it has to be something widespread like a weather change because the hatch was widespread. Because an area had a wet or dry spring last year or a drought the year before really had no bearing. And it was appeared so widespread that even if we knew what caused it, we probably couldnt duplicate it. My Son in Law in Louisiana has a few hens on his deer lease for the first time in the thirty years they have had to lease. They have never had turkeys - even when almost everywhere else did

 

[jsasker007]

Seems that cycles take place when you have a couple of really good years for game then the predators show up and get the numbers back down. Rabbits are about a 7 year cycle. Don't know if turkeys have a cycle as predictable as rabbits or not? Nest robbers raise hell on poultry around here.

 

[BenA]

I have very, very few nest predators and very few turkeys on my place. I know turkeys are around the area, and I do see them sometimes, but not often. I have a camera on the edge of a corn field and see hardly any coons or possums.

 

[omicron1792]

I have very, very few nest predators and very few turkeys on my place. I know turkeys are around the area, and I do see them sometimes, but not often. I have a camera on the edge of a corn field and see hardly any coons or possums.

Do you have all the different habitats they need?

 

[omicron1792]

Seems that cycles take place when you have a couple of really good years for game then the predators show up and get the numbers back down. Rabbits are about a 7 year cycle. Don't know if turkeys have a cycle as predictable as rabbits or not? Nest robbers raise hell on poultry around here.

That’s interesting. When I’m coyote hunting sometimes I’ll see 50 rabbits in one night.

 

[Ben.MN/WI]

Our local DNR doesn’t make any sense.
We didn’t have any wild turkeys in this part of the state for a hundred years.
They stocked them twenty years ago and they did well, now they let hunters shoot two gobblers in spring and a hen in fall?
Ten years ago I could hear a dozen different gobblers in the morning, now I may hear one or two. Used to see hens with polts all summer now it’s rare.
Our family stopped hunting them here five years ago when we noticed a sharp drop in numbers.

In the area I grew up in SE MN, turkeys were absent until the mid 90's, and once they arrived, their numbers exploded. My theory is that the predators in the area had any experience hunting them, so there was little natural control. The hunting was unbelievable in the early 2000's, and it was pretty rare to take more than a day to fill a spring turkey tag. I would estimate today that the turkey numbers are half what they were during the peak, despite no major changes in habitat quality. I've watched coyote packs hunting turkeys and they clearly know to hunt them these days.

Our turkey numbers are still pretty good, but I really doubt they will ever reach the numbers in the early 2000's.

 

[BenA]

Do you have all the different habitats they need?

I have 15 acres of old field, 7 acres divided between corn and plot and open, and 30 of timber in various stages of growth. I have 3 springs and a pond. I have one mile of twisting, turning edge separating the old field and woods.