Stock Market is the bottom in?

[hunts_with_stick]

IDK, doesnt seem too attractive to me. But I am not a financial advisor nor do I play one on TV.

 

[Double Creek]

NVII is looking very interesting to me for my Roth IRA. Anyone have opinions on this? I tried to research online, but there are so many ignorant douchebags on Reddit and other sites that I'm not sure about dropping a chunk of cash into something I don't fully understand. It's boasting a 4% monthly return and pays dividends weekly. That's over 40% per year on an ETF paying out cash on an options strategy.

Covered call strategies usually only outperform in a bear market. I'm not opposed to the strategy as I do think there is value in compounding income over time. Do your research though, a lot of the returns are coming out of the original capital investment, so it's not just pure income. Meaning, even with a 4% monthly payout, you could be down in the original position over time.

I have a couple covered call strategies in my IRA that have done ok, but have not outperformed the S&P over time. I have DIVO and JEPI. Divo has done much better as it's more of a hybrid strategy vs just a pure covered call. As always, if it sounds too good to be true, it probably is. If you are bullish NVDA, you would probably do better just buying the underlying or maybe even buying leaps. NVDA has been my top performer by far, but I've owned it since 2021. Not investment advice.

 

[Telemark]

Covered call strategies usually only outperform in a bear market. I'm not opposed to the strategy as I do think there is value in compounding income over time. Do your research though, a lot of the returns are coming out of the original capital investment, so it's not just pure income. Meaning, even with a 4% monthly payout, you could be down in the original position over time.

That's the problem. I can't figure out the graph. It doesn't seem to follow the market or the underlying asset. Is the ETF meant to be temporary?

 

[Badgers80]

I don’t think NVII is a covered call strategy…more so a leveraged ETF.
If you compare NVII and NVDA from end of May 2025 to August 2025, the trend is the same, strong up. But, because NVII is leveraged 105-150% of NVDA, when NVDA chops sideways, the ETF goes down. Say, NVDA goes up 10% one day, but then down 10% the next. The ETF will go up say 13% and then down 13%. Mathematically, you get 98.3% of your starting point. Vs NVDA gets you 99%. So, they both lose money vs your starting point but NVII loses more. That’s why you see NVII going down after that NVDA climb. So, yes, it’s supposed to be temporary and held in upward swings.

 

[Telemark]

If you compare NVII and NVDA from end of May 2025 to August 2025, the trend is the same, strong up. But, because NVII is leveraged 105-150% of NVDA, when NVDA chops sideways, the ETF goes down

That's what I don't get. It seems like they are managing it in a weird way. Like they are paying out too much and selling off shares to do it.

 

[Badgers80]

Best I understand it as they have to use options, swaps, etc. to get the ETF to emulate NVDA the way that they want it since they don’t actually just hold NVDA stock. In using those tools, they generate some cash from premiums which they can give out.

 

[Howboutthemdawgs]

Inflation running…shocking

 

[BuckSutherland]

^^^

We should print some more money. I have a great idea. Lets start another regime change war on the other side of the planet. That will help bring down the price of beef and health insurance in the United States.

 

[Howboutthemdawgs]

^^^

We should print some more money. I have a great idea. Lets start another regime change war on the other side of the planet. That will help bring down the price of beef and health insurance in the United States.

And tariff the whole world

 

[BuckSutherland]

^^^

Overnight China told all of their people to clear out of Iran. US Ambassador to Israel Mike Cuckabee told US citizens in Israel they need to leave today if they want to leave. Bombs will probably start falling this weekend. 30+ years of Iran being 1 week away from nuclear bombs is about to happen.

 

[Westwind]

This bunch really likes to do their bombing on the weekend.

 

[SD51555]

Why did I sell a call on my LMT going into the weekend? Turkey put into the cue earlier this week, and now Lebanon.

https://twitter.com/x/status/2027569475256451392

https://twitter.com/x/status/2027150921185276390

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[SD51555]

I bet some of my march madness money on a big move in TLT and interest rates this month. Gonna be interesting to see how this opens on monday. I've had this for a couple weeks already. Once I heard we were moving everyone and everything to the sandbox, I wanted to get in before bond prices potentially surge.

 

[bigboreblr]

Been eyenig that 20 year bond, just went over $90 yesterday or so.

 

[SD51555]

Seems like a dud to bonds so far. Gold and oil taking a good bump forward.

 

[bigboreblr]

That TLT call you have a few posts back. You explain that in dummy terms?

Still feeling gold will go much over 6000? Feeling a short term peak number for silver. NExt couple of quarters in the video game might be sprott silver. Change still is going in sprott silver n gold combo fund. CEF?

Might let go of Xiaomi. Spectulating whether they're going to help ford make electric trucks for 30 grand.

Reading this AI in USA is really limited on power. Not sure where to put some chips on the situation. Cameco, westinghouse, nuscale nuclear stuff? Caterpillar? GE turbines on that stranded gas? Caterpillar makes small package turbines too. Solar? No clue on who's hot there.

Besides 20 year bond, anything else interest rate or iran military spending related you smelling?

 

[SD51555]

That TLT call you have a few posts back. You explain that in dummy terms?

Still feeling gold will go much over 6000? Feeling a short term peak number for silver. NExt couple of quarters in the video game might be sprott silver. Change still is going in sprott silver n gold combo fund. CEF?

Might let go of Xiaomi. Spectulating whether they're going to help ford make electric trucks for 30 grand.

Reading this AI in USA is really limited on power. Not sure where to put some chips on the situation. Cameco, westinghouse, nuscale nuclear stuff? Caterpillar? GE turbines on that stranded gas? Caterpillar makes small package turbines too. Solar? No clue on who's hot there.

Besides 20 year bond, anything else interest rate or iran military spending related you smelling?

The calls on TLT are a bet that TLT will rise in price in the next 30 days. $10 away from $100 share price has those options contracts worth $5 each. As it gets closer (I.e. more likely to hit $100), the value of those calls go up. $5 away from $100 they rise to about $20 in value each. For every dollar it gets closer from there, the value of those contracts goes exponential. If it makes $100 in a few days, those contracts are worth $100/ea.

If it doesn’t make it. I’ll put another bet on April if there’s no resolution in the Middle East.

I’d hang tight and wait to see what happens when the market opens. Oil already traded limit up and triggered a circuit breaker. Lebanon and Israel are in open bombing campaigns now too, and it sounds like the UK just got an invitation in Cyprus.

I don’t know about other ways to play this other than money will get printed (bonds and metals), bombs will fly (defense contractors), and there’s a good chance of lots of energy disruption (Oil companies).

Frankly, I think the ship has already sailed on all those asset classes, except bonds. And I’m not in any way confident on when bonds will surge. Markets need to plunge to chase capital into bonds. No market plunge, no bond rally.


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[bwoods11]

Apple is probably the best stock buy I’ve ever made back in 2011. However, Palantir is right up there! Incredible.