Stock Market is the bottom in?

[Brian662]

I think there could be faster movement back to the US if the products are currently being made in a different country. Starting an entirely new production facility from scratch may take years, but moving an existing line is much faster. If all of the equipment and tooling exists overseas, it could be moved into an existing industrial building in the US in well under a year.

That makes sense in theory, but its not practical. No business in their right mind will shut down operations for months/years to send their tools back to a vacant warehouse stateside with large capital costs and THEN increased costs in labor. Disruptions in production and overwhelming capital costs including training a brand new work force just isn't something 99% of companies have the capability for, let alone the tolerance.

 

[Ben.MN/WI]

That makes sense in theory, but its not practical. No business in their right mind will shut down operations for months/years to send their tools back to a vacant warehouse stateside with large capital costs and THEN increased costs in labor. Disruptions in production and overwhelming capital costs including training a brand new work force just isn't something 99% of companies have the capability for, let alone the tolerance.

I've seen it done and one of our largest customers is moving a massive production line from one country to another it as we speak. Large, multinational corporations shift production from one country to another frequently and it is really not the obstacle that it once was, even for somewhat complex manufacturing operations. Many of the large companies already have operations in the US, so they would not be starting from scratch with their workforce, but rather moving workers from other facilities to assist with the transition.

European wages are higher than some areas of the US, so a move to the US may not result in increased labor costs. A 25% tariff is a huge incentive for foreign companies to look at manufacturing in the US.

 

[Barndog56]

GM and Honda have already decided to increase production in the US.

 

[Foggy47]

I'd think that some production lines moving back to the USA will have a higher level of automation that could offset the amount of labor used in the offshore plants. Amazing how automation and robotics has changed production over time.....both in lower labor costs, better quality, and higher output.

 

[Brian662]

I've seen it done and one of our largest customers is moving a massive production line from one country to another it as we speak. Large, multinational corporations shift production from one country to another frequently and it is really not the obstacle that it once was, even for somewhat complex manufacturing operations. Many of the large companies already have operations in the US, so they would not be starting from scratch with their workforce, but rather moving workers from other facilities to assist with the transition.

European wages are higher than some areas of the US, so a move to the US may not result in increased labor costs. A 25% tariff is a huge incentive for foreign companies to look at manufacturing in the US.

Do you know of companies that off shored work to high wage areas of Europe? I don't..doesn't seem to make any sense, most of the exodus from late 80's until mid 2000's was all to east Asia, from what I've seen. Going to be a giant labor increase to bring that back.

 

[Hoytvectrix]

Do you know of companies that off shored work to high wage areas of Europe? I don't..doesn't seem to make any sense, most of the exodus from late 80's until mid 2000's was all to east Asia, from what I've seen. Going to be a giant labor increase to bring that back.

And a steep price increase. We have benefited from cheaper labor overseas.

 

[Brian662]

I'd think that some production lines moving back to the USA will have a higher level of automation that could offset the amount of labor used in the offshore plants. Amazing how automation and robotics has changed production over time.....both in lower labor costs, better quality, and higher output.

So then what is the point of all these tariffs? Bring the manufacturing home so robots can do 90% of the work? I agree with continually improving and automating systems, it costs jobs but is a necessary advancement.



I believe that Trump's plan must be to sink the economy so interest rates come down, which will help the debt and housing markets. I dont know yet how the predicted cost increases (inflation) will impact those interest rates though. It's going to be an interesting case study for future generations when this thing unfolds. I hope it works.

 

[Angus 1895]

The way I try to get my head around losing so much value in my equities is I hope the revenue generated pays off the federal deficit.

If we can be less burdened by debt I can stand being less wealthy.

I spent a few days digging clams…razors not dollars, near Portland Oregon. I couldn’t believe on TV they were protesting logging. I guess they ain’t breathed enough smoke from the wildfires yet.

They were also trying to spend the savings realized by DOGE already on themselves.

How about we manage our resources where they aren’t a public health hazard ?…..and pay our freaking bills?

I think this tariff deal is going to work out to our favor.

 

[hunts_with_stick]

I agree, I think it is going to spark the economy. Great time to buy stocks on sale

 

[Howboutthemdawgs]

Down another 1100 premarket. I feel horrible for people who retired and are living off of investments they accrued throughout their lives. Has to be scary watching it unwind so fast

 

[H20fwler]

So then what is the point of all these tariffs? Bring the manufacturing home so robots can do 90% of the work? I agree with continually improving and automating systems, it costs jobs but is a necessary advancement.



I believe that Trump's plan must be to sink the economy so interest rates come down, which will help the debt and housing markets. I dont know yet how the predicted cost increases (inflation) will impact those interest rates though. It's going to be an interesting case study for future generations when this thing unfolds. I hope it works.

Trumps plan with tariffs is to get the USA back to fair trade agreements. Other countries have been taking advantage of the USA for decades, it has been way out of balance for far to long.

I see nothing wrong with expecting reciprocal tariffs going both ways. The USA has been paying way more than its fair share for goods while other countries get rich from it…and we have lost literally millions of jobs because of it.

The way I try to get my head around losing so much value in my equities is I hope the revenue generated pays off the federal deficit.

If we can be less burdened by debt I can stand being less wealthy.

I spent a few days digging clams…razors not dollars, near Portland Oregon. I couldn’t believe on TV they were protesting logging. I guess they ain’t breathed enough smoke from the wildfires yet.

They were also trying to spend the savings realized by DOGE already on themselves.

How about we manage our resources where they aren’t a public health hazard ?…..and pay our freaking bills?

I think this tariff deal is going to work out to our favor.

I am in the exact same line of thinking you are, and I am two years away from retirement. Agree 100%

Everything that Trump has done so far is exactly what I voted for.
I too think it will all balance out and our country will be stronger for it. And that my 401K will be just fine in the end.

 

[SD51555]

Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk

 

[Mortenson]

Down another 1100 premarket. I feel horrible for people who retired and are living off of investments they accrued throughout their lives. Has to be scary watching it unwind so fast

I used to subscribe to Money and Mutual Funds magazines when I was younger. It was a long time ago, but it was overwhelming policy that people nearing retirement needed to be out of equities and into stable investments or cash. I know there's alot of forces at play, so has that idea been abandoned in the past decade or two? With inflation eating at cash and lower interest rates making savings accounts, bond funds, etc poor choices?

 

[Howboutthemdawgs]

I used to subscribe to Money and Mutual Funds magazines when I was younger. It was a long time ago, but it was overwhelming policy that people nearing retirement needed to be out of equities and into stable investments or cash. I know there's alot of forces at play, so has that idea been abandoned in the past decade or two? With inflation eating at cash and lower interest rates making savings accounts, bond funds, etc poor choices?

No clue honestly. I’m not at retirement age and may never be at this rate. But I’m just drawing a parallel to land and safety in terms of investing. Trust me I’m not advocating for higher land prices but if you were a relatively high net worth individual who was heavily invested in the market to the tune of high 6-7 figures, I’d be crapping a blue goose right now. I’d feel much better riding out 4 years of chaos in land. Besides a passive retirement account, I only have a play trading account. So glad I went so deep in land instead.

 

[Mortenson]

I honestly think land prices across the board drop from current levels. Everything has gotten too high, stocks and land included.

 

[Howboutthemdawgs]

anecdotally I’ve seen the opposite so far but a lot of this policy is too new to make future assumptions

 

[rocksnstumps]

No clue honestly. I’m not at retirement age and may never be at this rate. But I’m just drawing a parallel to land and safety in terms of investing. Trust me I’m not advocating for higher land prices but if you were a relatively high net worth individual who was heavily invested in the market to the tune of high 6-7 figures, I’d be crapping a blue goose right now. I’d feel much better riding out 4 years of chaos in land. Besides a passive retirement account, I only have a play trading account. So glad I went so deep in land instead.

Land and real estate is only on their mind if it delivers cash flow. Vacant land is a cash suck for taxes unless flipped, not like rental money coming in every month. The old farts nearing retirement age have seen this before. 1987 Black Monday, dot com bubble pop right at end of 1990s, the great recession 2008-2009 (that was a bit harsh with 42% evaporation of personal 401k in one year) and all the other blips like COVID and 2022.

The sharks will no doubt circle and try to low ball land as panic sets in for some sellers. But land prices jumping during a recession, haven't seen it. More floats to the open market so with supply going up the lid on pricing is capped.

Frankly what drives high land prices is a roaring stock market and people are flush with new paper wealth. Or maybe the term now is more 1's and 0's

 

[hunts_with_stick]

I'm going all in on the stock market. Not selling right now. Thinking about taking some good returns to buy others at a deeper discount, but not sure right now.

 

[SwampCat]

Down another 1100 premarket. I feel horrible for people who retired and are living off of investments they accrued throughout their lives. Has to be scary watching it unwind so fast

And that would be me. Peter Doocey asked Caroline Leavitt that exact question - what about the retirees retirement accounts and lowering cd rates - she tried to brush it off and switched to “this is for future generations”. Of course, had she said “this is going to hammer the retirees but help the future generations” - it would not have gone over quite as well.

The declining market is not a “purchasing opportunity” for me as so many say. Many retirees - me included - do not have a pile of cash just laying around awaiting the right investment opportunity. If I did have any “extra” money - I would horde it to be used in these unknown times, in the event prices start escalating on products we actually need - like food

In addition, I believe Trump uses a very poor choice of words when he describes tariff generated money with “trillions of dollars coming into the country”. That money is not coming into the country - it is already here - to be paid by US companies and US consumers. Maybe he meant to say “coming into the government” and not “the country.” I guess he didnt want to suffer the outfall if he told the truth.

 

[Howboutthemdawgs]

And that would be me. Peter Doocey asked Caroline Leavitt that exact question - what about the retirees retirement accounts and lowering cd rates - she tried to brush it off and switched to “this is for future generations”. Of course, had she said “this is going to hammer the retirees but help the future generations” - it would not have gone over quite as well.

The declining market is not a “purchasing opportunity” for me as so many say. Many retirees - me included - do not have a pile of cash just laying around awaiting the right investment opportunity. If I did have any “extra” money - I would horde it to be used in these unknown times, in the event prices start escalating on products we actually need - like food

In addition, I believe Trump uses a very poor choice of words when he describes tariff generated money with “trillions of dollars coming into the country”. That money is not coming into the country - it is already here - to be paid by US companies and US consumers. Maybe he meant to say “coming into the government” and not “the country.” I guess he didnt want to suffer the outfall if he told the truth.

The lies are rampant…just like the rates shown on the big beautiful poster board of what other countries charge us.
With that said it may come back sure…but for people in their 70’s it may take years. It took what 5 years after the 2008 crash. For some folks that’s too late. But good news, their New Balances will be the same price but made in nebraska now in a factor that decimated 500 acres and brought a bunch of low skilled workers to town.