Stock Market is the bottom in?

[jsasker007]

I'm 5 1/2 years away from being able to take my money out of our retirement savings at work. Not sure if I should take it when I can right away and invest in my individual portfolio or let it ride. Doesn't seem like it's gained me a lot of profit really. Probably worth slightly more than I put in but it all adds up over time. The dividend reinvesting has probably made me a little profit. I have 5 years to think about it if I want to take it asap without penalty. If I take it sooner I think I pay about 40% in penalty. Not gonna do that.

 

[Bowsnbucks]

I find it comical that we have such a poor inflation report yesterday and then a bunch of stocks having a great day today. Some of my largest positions are Amazon, Apple, Microsoft, VUG (Vanguard Growth ETF) and they just keep going. I am expecting good Q1 earnings and for the market to continue higher despite inflation data. The whales are still buying and trying to get the serfs to sell their shares with all the negative news.

Anything remotely connected to AI - whether it's the chip / hardware companies, or the companies who'll utilize AI for bigger profits as they phase AI in - it's the long game. Negative news = buying opportunities. Notice how when share prices drop for a day or 3 - buying happens quickly, and the share prices start climbing again. Someone's buying the dips. Little guys get scared and sell (or don't buy) - bigger players run in and buy. We're in the early, "picks & shovels" stage of the AI revolution. Buffet - " ..... buy good companies and hold on for the long run."

 

[Bowsnbucks]

Big Tech stocks have certainly run up some huge profits. Now.....I sit with some great gains.....and my greed keeps me from taking profits to pay the taxes. I think so many others are in that same situation. <----that is one reason that I actually "like" Mutual Funds. They pay taxes each year.....and don't have such an impact on your decisions to sell......nor on the managers running the funds.

Some years back.....I was enamored with the need to own idividual issues of stocks in order to minimize the tax bite each year. But in reality that is a double edge sword IMO. I suppose you can die with the stepped up basis and your heirs will thank you. .....then again your dead. lol

Good problems to have.

I understand why you like mutual funds, Foggy47. So do I - and have for years. Buffet's advice for the average person to secure their future security ------ invest in a good, low-cost S&P 500 index fund and reinvest the divs and interest to keep buying more shares. Even Burton Malkiel - a now-retired Princeton economist (and Bogle fan) agrees to the efficiency of index investing. Malkiel said recently, (not exact quote) "The numbers prove it out. Low cost index funds have proven their ability to consistently beat active managers over the years, at much less cost to the investor." $3 for every $1K invested is cheap, professional management of one's money.

Been in low-cost index funds (and 3 low-cost, actively-managed funds) for decades. Dollar-cost-averaged our money into them to buy more shares when the NAV's were lower. Thank God I learned of mutual funds and how they work as a senior in HS. There weren't many mutual funds back then, but I watched the charts in MONEY Magazine to sift out the good ones.

 

[Foggy47]

I understand why you like mutual funds, Foggy47. So do I - and have for years. Buffet's advice for the average person to secure their future security ------ invest in a good, low-cost S&P 500 index fund and reinvest the divs and interest to keep buying more shares. Even Burton Malkiel - a now-retired Princeton economist (and Bogle fan) agrees to the efficiency of index investing. Malkiel said recently, (not exact quote) "The numbers prove it out. Low cost index funds have proven their ability to consistently beat active managers over the years, at much less cost to the investor." $3 for every $1K invested is cheap, professional management of one's money.

Been in low-cost index funds (and 3 low-cost, actively-managed funds) for decades. Dollar-cost-averaged our money into them to buy more shares when the NAV's were lower. Thank God I learned of mutual funds and how they work as a senior in HS. There weren't many mutual funds back then, but I watched the charts in MONEY Magazine to sift out the good ones.

At one time I got my securities & insurance licenses and worked as a sales rep for an investment company. I read everything I could for a long time in those areas......but it was not to be my passion or life work. I'm glad I did this.....as I feel I gained allot of knowledge on investing. I currently own a few funds.....and lots of individual stocks and a bond ladder to even out some retirement income. I'm not sure whether I have done better on my funds or the individual securities I own and the point is likely mute.....as my mutual funds are in smaller stocks and more actively traded than my holdings in big cap stocks, etc. I think if you watch the Morningstar ratings a bit.....anyone can pick good funds.

The issue becomes that I am now pushing around a pretty big capital gain in several stocks......and it would be quite painful from a tax standpoint if I were to liquidate. Not so with funds.....as you pay taxes each year on the gains....just as if you sold them at the end of each year. That system makes it easier to go in and out of the market on a whim without much concern on taxes (most often that is not a good idea either).

The way my advisor manages is on an allocation basis......so that the risks are spread into various industries and amounts. I am not enamored with our results over time.....OTOH were not trying to hit home runs and like to keep the risk relatively low to get solid returns....and not go too far backward when a market correction happens I liked the days of taking more risk to get a big reward......and sometimes a bit of timing for the win. Yep....been whip-sawed a time or two. lol

I got some memories of really hitting the good times with some international funds back in the 90's and some health care funds along the way too. Tech has almost always been good to me. For quite some years I was able to compound about 12%.....not so these days. I have memories of the dow when it was under 1000. Yep....getting old. lol

 

[BuckSutherland]

I understand why you like mutual funds, Foggy47. So do I - and have for years. Buffet's advice for the average person to secure their future security ------ invest in a good, low-cost S&P 500 index fund and reinvest the divs and interest to keep buying more shares. Even Burton Malkiel - a now-retired Princeton economist (and Bogle fan) agrees to the efficiency of index investing. Malkiel said recently, (not exact quote) "The numbers prove it out. Low cost index funds have proven their ability to consistently beat active managers over the years, at much less cost to the investor." $3 for every $1K invested is cheap, professional management of one's money.

Been in low-cost index funds (and 3 low-cost, actively-managed funds) for decades. Dollar-cost-averaged our money into them to buy more shares when the NAV's were lower. Thank God I learned of mutual funds and how they work as a senior in HS. There weren't many mutual funds back then, but I watched the charts in MONEY Magazine to sift out the good ones.

What are some of the funds you are invested in and how long have you been in them?? I didn't start my retirement account until 2018, but I likely already caught up to most other people my age. I have over 50% of my money in the bank drawing 5.61% in variable rate CDs. I keep contributing the maximum amount to my SEP account yearly as well as a Roth for the wife and I. This year we bought SPY, VO (Vanguard mid cap fund) and IWM (Russell 2k). I have another 25k to invest in the SEP in about 60 days after my 90 day CD expires. Looking for other ideas. I might just put it into Microsoft and Costco. Those two have treated me very well.

 

[OakSeeds]

My good friend BNB quotes an economist who cast an absolute statement that is incorrect .... BnB said .... Even Burton Malkiel - a now-retired Princeton economist (and Bogle fan) agrees to the efficiency of index investing. Malkiel said recently, (not exact quote) "The numbers prove it out. Low cost index funds have proven their ability to consistently beat active managers over the years, at much less cost to the investor." If Melkiel had said index funds have proven their ability to consistently beat -MOST - or 90% - of active managers over the years he would have been right; however, his statement as presented above implies superior performance every year ,,, or over any given number of years. It just ain't so!

Much earlier in this thread, I invited folks to check out the Blue Chip Growth Funds (e.g., T Rowe Price or Fidelity) as an opportunity to earn better returns than those available through other funds, including index funds. Interestingly, both Angus and H2OFowler have reported some involvement with the Fidelity Fund. These two HT contributors should be happy with today's results .... S&P 500 index gained .74% while FidelityBCG jumped over twice as much at 1.62%. YTD the blue chippers are double ahead of the 500 index and I'll bet you 10 Collasol Chestnuts with germinated radicals it will be the same at the end of the year. Many fol;ks fear the downside risk of these funds since they are more volatile than index funds. They are more volatile BUT ... even though they suffer more in a pronounced/sustained downturn, they bounce back stronger than ever and usually surpass their index counterparts rather quickly. Remember, the average recession is usually between 18-24 months.
For those who like the index fund concept with greater diversification and lower costs .... read the attached info regarding how the Nasdaq 100 index fund trumps the S & P 500 index fund - especially the % of years where the competing funds earned over 10% (52% of the returns for the Nasdaq 100 over the last 15 years).
https://www.etmoney.com/learn/stock...hich-index-is-better-for-investing-in-the-us/

 

[Bowsnbucks]

What are some of the funds you are invested in and how long have you been in them?? I didn't start my retirement account until 2018, but I likely already caught up to most other people my age. I have over 50% of my money in the bank drawing 5.61% in variable rate CDs. I keep contributing the maximum amount to my SEP account yearly as well as a Roth for the wife and I. This year we bought SPY, VO (Vanguard mid cap fund) and IWM (Russell 2k). I have another 25k to invest in the SEP in about 60 days after my 90 day CD expires. Looking for other ideas. I might just put it into Microsoft and Costco. Those two have treated me very well.

We have been in several Vanguard funds for decades, mostly indexes and a couple actively-managed funds. I also have been in 1 fund each with 2 different fund companies, that I started while in college before I met my wife. One fund was merged into the Franklin-Templeton fund family, and the other (Nicholas, out of Milwaukee) I liquidated to pay for one son's college tuition. None but one has been higher risk / more aggressive - that one is Vanguard's Growth Index (VIGAX). The others were low-cost, growth & income types of funds (diversified among large-caps, mid-caps, and small-caps in various businesses), that had good growth of share prices and decent dividends paid out. We reinvested all the divs & capital gains back into the funds to accumulate more shares. We did not rely solely on our employer-sponsored / matching 401-K's, IRA's, pensions, and thrift plans. We also invested the same amount every month from our paychecks - in addition to our employer-sponsored retirement plans - so we had extra resources adding up beside our work-retirement plans. Glad we did that from day 1. We've been in those funds for over 40 years. I started young - reading & researching since about 1976 from magazines like MONEY, Forbes, Fortune, Kiplinger's, Barron's, and numerous articles from Jack Bogle, Ben Graham, Buffet, Peter Lynch, and others.

We don't own any individual stocks. I bought a penny stock of 1000 shares about 35 years ago - and lost about $280. That's the only individual stock I ever owned.

 

[Bowsnbucks]

My good friend BNB quotes an economist who cast an absolute statement that is incorrect .... BnB said .... Even Burton Malkiel - a now-retired Princeton economist (and Bogle fan) agrees to the efficiency of index investing. Malkiel said recently, (not exact quote) "The numbers prove it out. Low cost index funds have proven their ability to consistently beat active managers over the years, at much less cost to the investor." If Melkiel had said index funds have proven their ability to consistently beat -MOST - or 90% - of active managers over the years he would have been right; however, his statement as presented above implies superior performance every year ,,, or over any given number of years. It just ain't so!

Much earlier in this thread, I invited folks to check out the Blue Chip Growth Funds (e.g., T Rowe Price or Fidelity) as an opportunity to earn better returns than those available through other funds, including index funds. Interestingly, both Angus and H2OFowler have reported some involvement with the Fidelity Fund. These two HT contributors should be happy with today's results .... S&P 500 index gained .74% while FidelityBCG jumped over twice as much at 1.62%. YTD the blue chippers are double ahead of the 500 index and I'll bet you 10 Collasol Chestnuts with germinated radicals it will be the same at the end of the year. Many fol;ks fear the downside risk of these funds since they are more volatile than index funds. They are more volatile BUT ... even though they suffer more in a pronounced/sustained downturn, they bounce back stronger than ever and usually surpass their index counterparts rather quickly. Remember, the average recession is usually between 18-24 months.
For those who like the index fund concept with greater diversification and lower costs .... read the attached info regarding how the Nasdaq 100 index fund trumps the S & P 500 index fund - especially the % of years where the competing funds earned over 10% (52% of the returns for the Nasdaq 100 over the last 15 years).
https://www.etmoney.com/learn/stock...hich-index-is-better-for-investing-in-the-us/

Yep ...... I should have said "most" actively-managed funds. You're correct. Indexes don't beat actively-managed funds every year. But they do beat out most actively-managed funds (I think it's about 80% actually - but certainly not ALL 100%, stats show). That's why the likes of Jack Bogle, Buffet, Malkiel, and others advise " ...... if you can't beat the indexes / benchmarks (consistently) - join them." The point those gents were making is that active managers do have index-beating results some years - but don't do so on a consistent basis - so why pay higher expense ratios for sub-index returns in about 7 or 8 out of 10 years. These are their stats - not mine.

I also said in my post that it wasn't an exact quote. That was the jist of what Malkiel said, but you or anyone can research Malkiel's views (and Buffet's) on indexing vs. actively-managed funds. The stats for performance of each method of managing are out there. Wife and I also own 2 actively-managed funds - not all indexes.

No offense taken OakSeeds. Your clarification is accurate. Have a good day friend!!!

 

[Bowsnbucks]

At one time I got my securities & insurance licenses and worked as a sales rep for an investment company. I read everything I could for a long time in those areas......but it was not to be my passion or life work. I'm glad I did this.....as I feel I gained allot of knowledge on investing. I currently own a few funds.....and lots of individual stocks and a bond ladder to even out some retirement income. I'm not sure whether I have done better on my funds or the individual securities I own and the point is likely mute.....as my mutual funds are in smaller stocks and more actively traded than my holdings in big cap stocks, etc. I think if you watch the Morningstar ratings a bit.....anyone can pick good funds.

The issue becomes that I am now pushing around a pretty big capital gain in several stocks......and it would be quite painful from a tax standpoint if I were to liquidate. Not so with funds.....as you pay taxes each year on the gains....just as if you sold them at the end of each year. That system makes it easier to go in and out of the market on a whim without much concern on taxes (most often that is not a good idea either).

The way my advisor manages is on an allocation basis......so that the risks are spread into various industries and amounts. I am not enamored with our results over time.....OTOH were not trying to hit home runs and like to keep the risk relatively low to get solid returns....and not go too far backward when a market correction happens I liked the days of taking more risk to get a big reward......and sometimes a bit of timing for the win. Yep....been whip-sawed a time or two. lol

I got some memories of really hitting the good times with some international funds back in the 90's and some health care funds along the way too. Tech has almost always been good to me. For quite some years I was able to compound about 12%.....not so these days. I have memories of the dow when it was under 1000. Yep....getting old. lol

We have the bulk of our mutual fund money in qualified, tax-advantaged 401K's, IRA's, etc. - so the tax man doesn't get to our dividends, capital gains, and interest in those funds. So all of those go to work for us with no tax bite. The couple funds we own that aren't tax advantaged - we get taxed on the gains every year. But when we liquidate those funds, we won't pay taxes (again) on gains we already paid taxes on. Our CFP told us all the account statements we kept for years will prove that out - lowering our tax bite.

 

[Foggy47]

My good friend BNB quotes an economist who cast an absolute statement that is incorrect .... BnB said .... Even Burton Malkiel - a now-retired Princeton economist (and Bogle fan) agrees to the efficiency of index investing. Malkiel said recently, (not exact quote) "The numbers prove it out. Low cost index funds have proven their ability to consistently beat active managers over the years, at much less cost to the investor." If Melkiel had said index funds have proven their ability to consistently beat -MOST - or 90% - of active managers over the years he would have been right; however, his statement as presented above implies superior performance every year ,,, or over any given number of years. It just ain't so!

Much earlier in this thread, I invited folks to check out the Blue Chip Growth Funds (e.g., T Rowe Price or Fidelity) as an opportunity to earn better returns than those available through other funds, including index funds. Interestingly, both Angus and H2OFowler have reported some involvement with the Fidelity Fund. These two HT contributors should be happy with today's results .... S&P 500 index gained .74% while FidelityBCG jumped over twice as much at 1.62%. YTD the blue chippers are double ahead of the 500 index and I'll bet you 10 Collasol Chestnuts with germinated radicals it will be the same at the end of the year. Many fol;ks fear the downside risk of these funds since they are more volatile than index funds. They are more volatile BUT ... even though they suffer more in a pronounced/sustained downturn, they bounce back stronger than ever and usually surpass their index counterparts rather quickly. Remember, the average recession is usually between 18-24 months.
For those who like the index fund concept with greater diversification and lower costs .... read the attached info regarding how the Nasdaq 100 index fund trumps the S & P 500 index fund - especially the % of years where the competing funds earned over 10% (52% of the returns for the Nasdaq 100 over the last 15 years).
https://www.etmoney.com/learn/stock...hich-index-is-better-for-investing-in-the-us/

I tend to agree with you on buying the more volatile funds.....as they may take a header once in a while.....but like a tennis ball....they rebound faster when the economy overcomes what is wrong.....and outpace more stable investments in the long run. That is not to say that this is for everyone....as some folks cannot handle the downside when it comes.....and do irrational things that prevent them from the later recovery. Everyone seems to have a different risk tolerance. Seen that a few times.

Also.....when you do not have a way to replace your nest egg (such as you are retired and don't have an earned income and don't want to go back to work) you may rethink the high volatility funds or stocks and stay with some more stodgy investments. <----that took me some time to get through my head......and I still struggle with it at times. But as my advisor says...."if you have more than you need....why would you take unneeded risks?" Point taken.

 

[bwoods11]

I understand why you like mutual funds, Foggy47. So do I - and have for years. Buffet's advice for the average person to secure their future security ------ invest in a good, low-cost S&P 500 index fund and reinvest the divs and interest to keep buying more shares. Even Burton Malkiel - a now-retired Princeton economist (and Bogle fan) agrees to the efficiency of index investing. Malkiel said recently, (not exact quote) "The numbers prove it out. Low cost index funds have proven their ability to consistently beat active managers over the years, at much less cost to the investor." $3 for every $1K invested is cheap, professional management of one's money.

Been in low-cost index funds (and 3 low-cost, actively-managed funds) for decades. Dollar-cost-averaged our money into them to buy more shares when the NAV's were lower. Thank God I learned of mutual funds and how they work as a senior in HS. There weren't many mutual funds back then, but I watched the charts in MONEY Magazine to sift out the good ones.

Buffett doesn’t listen to his own advice then? He invests in individual stocks and buys companies within Berkshire Hathaway. He also has a lot of money in cash right now.

An investor can create his own mutual fund by buying 10-30 individual stocks with zero fees and trades (Schwab) account. I look for strong dividend paying stocks with certain criteria.

Of course you have to be somewhat savvy, not saying it’s apples to apples comparison with Buffett.

Theres multiple ways to do it, personally I don’t like to invest in 500 companies at one time. To each its own however!

 

[Bszweda]

Anyone use acre trader? Thinking about starting to invest in it.

 

[Bowsnbucks]

Buffett doesn’t listen to his own advice then? He invests in individual stocks and buys companies within Berkshire Hathaway. He also has a lot of money in cash right now.

An investor can create his own mutual fund by buying 10-30 individual stocks with zero fees and trades (Schwab) account. I look for strong dividend paying stocks with certain criteria.

Of course you have to be somewhat savvy, not saying it’s apples to apples comparison with Buffett.

Theres multiple ways to do it, personally I don’t like to invest in 500 companies at one time. To each its own however!

Buffet's advice about S&P 500 index funds is for the average American investor. He clearly says that, knowing full well that most Americans don't have the time, experience, or inclination to do the research necessary to get where he is. Most who follow investment news & info know Buffet invests in individual stocks - no secret. But his own heirs will see the bulk of his own fortune placed in a low-cost S&P 500 index fund - likely at Vanguard, as he has mentioned on several occasions. He says those things in his TV interviews and online talks, and has done so for a number of years now.

As you said (correctly), Buffet has a lot of money in cash right now. He recently stated that he can't find suitable stocks to invest in right now at market prices he considers bargains. Buffet likes to buy when markets decline, so good companies at bargain prices are easier to find. Buffet having billions sitting on the sidelines earning about 5.25% is a problem I'd like to have.

 

[Buckly]

I don’t think Buffet would be very happy at all getting 5.25 on his cash. That’s what YOU can get. He has a little better rate. LOL

 

[Foggy47]

Buffet's advice about S&P 500 index funds is for the average American investor. He clearly says that, knowing full well that most Americans don't have the time, experience, or inclination to do the research necessary to get where he is. Most who follow investment news & info know Buffet invests in individual stocks - no secret. But his own heirs will see the bulk of his own fortune placed in a low-cost S&P 500 index fund - likely at Vanguard, as he has mentioned on several occasions. He says those things in his TV interviews and online talks, and has done so for a number of years now.

As you said (correctly), Buffet has a lot of money in cash right now. He recently stated that he can't find suitable stocks to invest in right now at market prices he considers bargains. Buffet likes to buy when markets decline, so good companies at bargain prices are easier to find. Buffet having billions sitting on the sidelines earning about 5.25% is a problem I'd like to have.

If you don't raise cash when the multiples are relatively high.....how can you have some dry powder when the markets swoon?

I have a brother-in-law that was quite risk adverse. He liked to count his cash. But on several occasions after the market had taken a big run (while he held cash) he would brag on how he made a stock investment in a company that was making big gains in the marketplace. Invariably he would buy at market highs when everyone else was riding big gains, then take a hit, and then sour on the markets yet again.....only to rinse and repeat. lol

I have not spoken to him in some time.....but I'm willing to bet he is considering buying at this point.

 

[hunts_with_stick]

I just bought some ford stock, picked up some more at and t.

 

[OakSeeds]

With all due respect to my friend BNB who said .... "The point those gents were making is that active managers do have index-beating results some years - but don't do so on a consistent basis ..." I'm calling those gents out ... that be bovine do-do or bunny grunt, and I'll also illustrate the downside/upside recovery effect mentioned above by my ol pal Foggy. This post is simply informational for those who wish to follow along. Since my friend BNB appears to favor Vanguard funds - I'll compare the VFINX (Vanguard S & P 500 Index Fund) with the Fidelity FBGRX (Fidelity Blue Chip Growth Fund) for the past 16 years.
First, each fund had 3 losing years out of 16, and the Fidelity Fund beat the Vanguard Fund 11 out of 16 years. I'll share the relevant info... went back 16 years to ensure I captured the BIGGEST loss the Blue Chip fund has incurred in the last 20 years (handicap them a little for a more robust comparison). Using a FBGRX / VFINX format, and starting with the year 2008, you will see their respective performance
data (Yahoo finance). Using a FBGRX-Blue Chip / VFINX-S&P 500 Index format, here is 16 years of data .....
For example, 2008 (-38.60 for FBGRX / -37.02 for VFINX), 2009 (44.96 / 26.49), 2010 (19.61 / 14.91), 2011 (-2.72 / 1.97), 2012 (17.77 / 15.92), 2013 (39.84 / 32.18), 2014 (14.60 / 13.51),
2015 (6.28 / 1.25), 2016 (1.59 / 11.82), 2017 (36.06 / 21.67), 2018 (1.07 / -4.52), 2019 (33.44 / 31.33), 2020 (62.23 / 18.25), 2021 (22.71 / 28.53), 2022 (-38.46 / -18.23), 2023 (55.60 / 26.11).

The recovery effect ... start with 2008 and a $100 investment in each of the 2 funds - both lost over 37% in 2008; now, calculate their respective performance increase in a $100 investment) for 3 years (2008 - 2010). 2008 (FBGRX -38.60 and 500 Index -37.02), 2009 (FBGRX 44.96 and 500 Index..26.49), 2010 (FBGRX...19.61 and 500 Index..14.91), What is the Blue chip fund (FBGRX) and 500 index funds value, respectively, on Dec. 31, 2010. FBGRX has a value of $106.45 (up $6.45 on $100 investment) while the VNIFX has a value of $91.53 (loss of $8.47 on $100 investment). The total difference of $14.92 suggest the FBGRX enjoyed a rather speedy 2-year recovery while the 500 Index was down more than 8% overall. Now, let's pencil it out for the next 5 years ( 2011 - 2015 when FBGRX had superior performance over the 500 Index for 4 of the 5 years). Starting with 2011 (FBGRX has a 2.72 loss) and calculating their overall increase by Dec. 31,2017. A $100 investment in the Blue Chip Growth Fund is now worth $207.69 (ignoring expenses) while the Vanguard S & P 500 Index Fund has a value of $164.19. Given the large differences in expense ratios (8X or 9X), the $43.50 ($435 on a $1000 investment) difference on $100 investment is not all that great over an 8-year period.

 

[OakSeeds]

cont ....

The numbers for 2016 and 2017 give FBGRX a distinct advantage and increase it's lead to $107.24 since FBGRX now has a value of $330.61 while the S & P 500 Index exhibits a value of $223.37. The next 4-year period (2018-2021) begin with a down year (the 500 Index has a 4.52 loss for the year). Largely because of a big bounce back in 2020, after the poor 2018 year, the FBGRX - Fidelity Blue Chrip Growth Fund had a Dec. 31, 2021 value of $557.93, approximately $217.83 more than the 500 Index value of $340.10. On a $1000 investment, excluding cost / expense ratio, you would be $2178.30 ahead by investing - on Jan. 1, 2008 - in the Fidelity Blue Chip Growth Fund over the Vanguard S & P 500 Index Fund. Pushing on , both funds had negative results for 2022 (FBGRX -38.40 and VNIFX -18.23) however, the big 2023 bounceback for FBGRX (55.60 in 2023) allowed it to retain its lead over the 500 Index ( 534.26 vs 350.21 = $184.05 difference).
On a Jan. 1, 2008 investment of $1000 in each of the 2 funds discussed above, you would ehjoy a $1840.50 advantage (excluding expenses which would clearly reduce the performance difference).

Points of all this ... 1, there are clearly mutual funds that can compete strongly with the S&P 500 Index Fund and 2. over the long haul (long game) the downside risk assumed with the volatility of the FBGRX Fund (and perhaps others like it) is not as dangerous ($ lost) as you might imagine. All numbers used in this discussion were pulled from the internet (yahoo finance) and the intent of this post is to help others better understand mutual fund investing. Who knows, maybe the Mag-7 tech stocks will all crash and blue-chip growth stocks will tank badly. Finally, please don't invest because of anything I have posted; heck, I lose my shirt in the market every year.

You might like parts of this Barrron's article ... https://www.marketwatch.com/article...tesla-nvidia-apple-aa1c7d83?mod=mw_quote_news

As they used to say .... sell in May and go away -------- (updated) come back in the fall (Oct.) and grow it tall! Unfortunately most mutual fund companies consider this the "revolving-door-investing-strategy" and often discourage it by limiting your ins-n-outs over a given time period. Anyhou, goid luck foks.

 

[Foggy47]

I can vouch for the Vanguard funds group....by and large. I own a few Vanguard funds today....and at one time almost exclusively would own and trade Vanguard as they cover most of the bases I had an interest in. Outstanding funds for me were their Health Care Fund, Windsor Fund, Wellington Fund, S&P500 Index, and their International Fund (likely some others I have forgotten).....but those are some time ago. Generally they have lower expenses that others that also perform well. I also have liked some T. Rowe Price funds based on good performance....and there are lots of others that have performed well over time. Morningstar is your friend to help sort it all out (or at least used to be).

Folks talk about high interest rates today at 5.5% or so......but I can remember getting aa much as 20% for some time in the Vanguard Money Market fund......back in the 70's. Talk about spooky times to borrow money!

 

[b116757]

I'm 5 1/2 years away from being able to take my money out of our retirement savings at work. Not sure if I should take it when I can right away and invest in my individual portfolio or let it ride. Doesn't seem like it's gained me a lot of profit really. Probably worth slightly more than I put in but it all adds up over time. The dividend reinvesting has probably made me a little profit. I have 5 years to think about it if I want to take it asap without penalty. If I take it sooner I think I pay about 40% in penalty. Not gonna do that.

Out of curiosity what 401k provider does our employer use? My brothers company uses Edward Jones which appear to be snake oil salesmen.