Stock Market is the bottom in?

Jack -
First thing. When I posted what I did in post #1443, I wasn't lecturing anyone about political red or blue anything. This thread is about markets. I merely posted about what Ray Dalio said in his recent comments. Mr. Dalio has been looking at the big picture of where this country is heading, based on clear-eyed evidence and also statements made by certain factions here in the U.S. Mr. Dalio has billions of his own money invested, as well as billions of other people's dollars he's managing. Dalio is VERY interested in what may happen to the WHOLE market economy if this hate-filed, vitriolic posturing escalates into a real civil war. I posted the info by Mr. Dalio because his fears are for where we seem to be headed - and how that'll ruin everything we've ALL worked for. I posted it (Dalio's thoughts) in that context of what will happen to our markets if his fears become reality. Any investment moves that ANY of us have made will all be for naught.

Another person on here chose to take my post as lecturing and got all heated up & began a verbal attack. My post wasn't lecturing - only posting what a very well-regarded investment manager has valid fears about. My initial reference that it was RAY DALIO'S thoughts went un-noticed - or ignored for the sake of arguing. If Mr. Dalio fears for our economic system if we end up in a civil war - which he clearly states he thinks we're heading for - I think Ray Dalio will be proven correct soon enough. I do not think Ray Dalio is manipulating me or anyone else. He made clear comments about what he sees happening - and he has billions of $$$ of skin in the game. Does anyone believe that if a real civil war breaks out, that the economy will remain unfazed, markets will remain stable, and we all keep our saved & invested money??? That WILL NOT happen - we'll all be broke. Look at history anywhere that's had civil war.

When I post anything on this forum, I'm not in a rage, I'm not angry or foaming at the mouth with hate. (I'm not suggesting that YOU think I am - but some here seem to jump at the chance for verbal attacks. If people in this country actually start shooting at other Americans - that's on them. My post at #1443 was only info-sharing from Ray Dalio's comments ...... it wasn't political lecturing by me.

I agree with you 100% on the foreign propaganda / hacking assaults from Russia, China, and Iran. We ought to be focused on those problems BIG-TIME, IMO. Undermining free democracies is their focused goal.
We have a political system that allows for diverse viewpoints to be negotiated. When we are divided to the point where folks on both sides lose confidence in the system, we do risk tribalism where might makes right. The more we accentuate the internal divide rather than recognizing the external threat and band together, the more likely the grand experiment is to fail in our lifetimes.
 
I’m still not following you on this. If this great economic collapse happens and everybody loses everything, what can you do? Everybody’s in the same boat. I’m interested though in this civil war thing. Who are the 2 sides?
The two sides are us and them. Of course, who comprises us and who comprises them depends on your point of view. :emoji_smile:
 
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Creating gun laws that keep guns out of the hands of convicted violent felons and mental cases doesn't bother me at all. I NEVER saw any statement that "We, the government folks, are coming to confiscate all your guns." I HAVE seen attempts to enact the laws mentioned above ^^^.

Also for the record - in a televised interview a few years ago, Biden advised people who want to protect their homes from thugs to buy a shotgun. Because it's easier to hit a home invader. He said he bought one for his wife, Jill, for when he's away for any reason. I watched his interview. He publicly advocated for owning guns on TV. I believe he went further and said he tells anyone who wants to protect their home to buy a shotgun. Doesn't sound like confiscation to me - saying this peacefully and non-confrontationally.
That was many Joe Biden’s ago. On the campaign he literally said he was coming for your AR-14. NY politicians, constantly talk about taking guns, registering guns, taxing guns, taxing ammunition. The safe act put some limits on, the next safe act will go further. Felons already can’t own guns, but god damn they keep breaking the law. I can’t imagine they would do that. I know you won’t watch Fox News but there is this thing going on where big city DA’s don’t prosecute criminals for anything short of murder. There is a rapper who has been arrested a few times now on gun charges, each time he is released without bail. Last week he shot a cop. I can’t believe he keeps breaking the law. In case you weren’t aware violent felons and mental cases don’t follow the law.
 
I’m still not following you on this. If this great economic collapse happens and everybody loses everything, what can you do? Everybody’s in the same boat. I’m interested though in this civil war thing. Who are the 2 sides?
I'll narrow it down. Ray Dalio said he fears we're heading for an actual civil war here. (as I mentioned in post #1443) If a shooting civil war happens - our economy WILL collapse. If the market tanks by billions of dollars - on any given day - over an oil price rise, or interest rates changing, or a military action somewhere else in the world .............. what do we think will happen if we Americans start shooting at each other?? Do any of us really think everything will remain stable and unchanged??

And you're exactly correct - we'll all be in the same boat - broke. The multi-billionaires might hang on to a few bucks, but most of us avg. guys will be broke - if we live through the civil war ........ or the likely invasion by Russia and / or China if we start killing each other here in the U.S.

The 2 sides you ask?? Those who STILL believe the repeatedly de-bunked LIE that Biden "stole" the 2020 election, and there was "massive" voter fraud nationwide. That side feels they have to "take back" and "straighten out" this country. That LYING CLAIM has been rejected in EVERY U.S. court, even by judges placed by the perpetrator of the BIG LIE. Actual questionable / or proven voting fraud cases numbered about 350 - not enough to even make a scratch in the election results. I guess some folks feel they have to kill other Americans based on that LIE.

The other side?? Those who believe in facts and truth. Proven facts. And also in TRUE, FREE democracy.
 
big city DA’s don’t prosecute criminals for anything short of murder. There is a rapper who has been arrested a few times now on gun charges, each time he is released without bail. Last week he shot a cop. I can’t believe he keeps breaking the law. In case you weren’t aware violent felons and mental cases don’t follow the law.
I'm NOT in favor of that!!! I want to see crooks punished / locked up. ALL CROOKS - the WHITE COLLAR VARIETY as well. And I'm not shocked that criminals will break the law, either. So why are some gun laws so lax that permits are not even required in some states, based on news from some of those states?? Why in God's name can repeat violent criminals still go into a gun shop and buy a gun?? Several shootings around the country in the past couple years have been by convicted felons who bought guns LEGALLY and then went on to shoot someone else. Does that sound like a good system?? That's not even taking into account black market guns and the "self-print", untraceable varieties. Where does sense enter the picture??

BTW - I'm not angry as I type this. I'd LOVE to see a working system where the bad guys can't get guns - but those of us who hunt or want to protect ourselves and our families are clear to do so. I don't see this as an either-or situation, where you either want legal guns ......... or you want no guns at all. About 99% of the men in both sides of my family hunt. No criminals in either side of the family. We'd like common-sense, enforceable gun laws - keep guns away from violent felons & mental cases. To me - that doesn't seem irrational.
 
Felons already can’t own guns, but god damn they keep breaking the law.
Asking calmly .......... how do we fix that?? Having unregistered guns makes them basically secret, right?? How do we keep track of guns so that the "bad guys" can't get them??
I don't like seeing the repeat crooks shooting things up either.
 
I'll narrow it down. Ray Dalio said he fears we're heading for an actual civil war here. (as I mentioned in post #1443) If a shooting civil war happens - our economy WILL collapse. If the market tanks by billions of dollars - on any given day - over an oil price rise, or interest rates changing, or a military action somewhere else in the world .............. what do we think will happen if we Americans start shooting at each other?? Do any of us really think everything will remain stable and unchanged??

And you're exactly correct - we'll all be in the same boat - broke. The multi-billionaires might hang on to a few bucks, but most of us avg. guys will be broke - if we live through the civil war ........ or the likely invasion by Russia and / or China if we start killing each other here in the U.S.

The 2 sides you ask?? Those who STILL believe the repeatedly de-bunked LIE that Biden "stole" the 2020 election, and there was "massive" voter fraud nationwide. That side feels they have to "take back" and "straighten out" this country. That LYING CLAIM has been rejected in EVERY U.S. court, even by judges placed by the perpetrator of the BIG LIE. Actual questionable / or proven voting fraud cases numbered about 350 - not enough to even make a scratch in the election results. I guess some folks feel they have to kill other Americans based on that LIE.

The other side?? Those who believe in facts and truth. Proven facts. And also in TRUE, FREE democracy.
So which side you on. I just can’t imagine AOC with a rifle but, hey if you want to side up with that go ahead :emoji_grinning:
 
I'll narrow it down. Ray Dalio said he fears we're heading for an actual civil war here. (as I mentioned in post #1443) If a shooting civil war happens - our economy WILL collapse. If the market tanks by billions of dollars - on any given day - over an oil price rise, or interest rates changing, or a military action somewhere else in the world .............. what do we think will happen if we Americans start shooting at each other?? Do any of us really think everything will remain stable and unchanged??

And you're exactly correct - we'll all be in the same boat - broke. The multi-billionaires might hang on to a few bucks, but most of us avg. guys will be broke - if we live through the civil war ........ or the likely invasion by Russia and / or China if we start killing each other here in the U.S.

The 2 sides you ask?? Those who STILL believe the repeatedly de-bunked LIE that Biden "stole" the 2020 election, and there was "massive" voter fraud nationwide. That side feels they have to "take back" and "straighten out" this country. That LYING CLAIM has been rejected in EVERY U.S. court, even by judges placed by the perpetrator of the BIG LIE. Actual questionable / or proven voting fraud cases numbered about 350 - not enough to even make a scratch in the election results. I guess some folks feel they have to kill other Americans based on that LIE.

The other side?? Those who believe in facts and truth. Proven facts. And also in TRUE, FREE democracy.
Survival tip. Move all your money now to a Swiss bank account. If your side still uses US currency and wins you might not lose everything. :emoji_sunglasses:
 
Business loves predictability and stability.
Agree 100%. Business and the investment community love stability. But divided government means nothing gets done, since each side is trenched-in. Things like our outdated power grid, lack of cybersecurity, rotting bridges and water systems, crumbling roads, sewer systems leaking .......... all suffer and get more & more expensive as the years go by. I agree with your point that the center-lefts and center-rights have to carry the day for anything to get done. The "centers" aren't so far apart when asked their goals & priorities.
 
I just can’t imagine AOC with a rifle but, hey if you want to side up with that go ahead
She's too far out to the left for me - just as some are way too far right for me.

I'm on the side that my Dad, uncles, cousins and in-laws fought for ............ free democracy. Truth. And I'd rather that NO shooting at each other ever happens. I'd rather throw on some burgers and have some beers!!
 
I'm NOT in favor of that!!! I want to see crooks punished / locked up. ALL CROOKS - the WHITE COLLAR VARIETY as well. And I'm not shocked that criminals will break the law, either. So why are some gun laws so lax that permits are not even required in some states, based on news from some of those states?? Why in God's name can repeat violent criminals still go into a gun shop and buy a gun?? Several shootings around the country in the past couple years have been by convicted felons who bought guns LEGALLY and then went on to shoot someone else. Does that sound like a good system?? That's not even taking into account black market guns and the "self-print", untraceable varieties. Where does sense enter the picture??

BTW - I'm not angry as I type this. I'd LOVE to see a working system where the bad guys can't get guns - but those of us who hunt or want to protect ourselves and our families are clear to do so. I don't see this as an either-or situation, where you either want legal guns ......... or you want no guns at all. About 99% of the men in both sides of my family hunt. No criminals in either side of the family. We'd like common-sense, enforceable gun laws - keep guns away from violent felons & mental cases. To me - that doesn't seem irrational.
It is a felony for a felon to attempt to buy a gun in all 50 states. I bet you cant site one case where a convicted felon went into a gun store and purchased a gun. If that happened the gun store owner would be behind bars. My uncle owns a gun store. When you fill out the yellow form it is a felony for you to do so if you are a felon. Every time that happens it sends up a red flag at the ATF And the sale is denied. What is suppose to happen from there is they track down the person and arrest them. Unfortunately very few people who commit gun crimes are prosecuted for attempting to buy a gun, but they do not get the gun. I am kind of shocked you don’t know how the gun laws are suppose to work. You must have bought a gun in the last 20 years. Bad guys get guns from other bad guys. Most are stolen. Unfortunately it is nearly impossible to stop the first time bad guy from buying the gun. The FBI was tip off on a couple of the most recent shootings and they still did nothing. I don’t have an answer other than prosecute when you have the chance.
 
She's too far out to the left for me - just as some are way too far right for me.

I'm on the side that my Dad, uncles, cousins and in-laws fought for ............ free democracy. Truth. And I'd rather that NO shooting at each other ever happens. I'd rather throw on some burgers and have some beers!!
I don’t know, you seem pretty convinced it’s going to happen. By the way, you’re side is the AOC side. Just think about that for a while. if there only 2 sides I mean. Also , no beer and no meat. Your going to lose everything remember
 
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Anyone who thinks Brandon isn’t up to nefariousness activity on the gun control front isn’t keeping up with current politics. Looks very much like his administration is breaking federal law by compiling a gun owner registration already.

 
An Allegany judge was just removed from the bench. Official state a 2014 Facebook post in which he “was looking for a few more friends” to attend a NRA fundraising banquet. According to officials “ each judge must also, conduct all of the judges extra-judicial activities so that they do not detract from the dignity of the judicial office”.
he also posted a link to a sight about State police and sheriffs that are refusing to follow NY’S SAFE act. Pretty much says it all. If you express your personal views on Facebook you will be canceled
 
I don’t know, you seem pretty convinced it’s going to happen.
When recent polls by a number of reputable polling entities reported that about 70% of Americans say a shooting civil is justified - it's not me making those numbers. I'm listening to what the polls are saying and looking at the tracks as to where / how this all started. When those large numbers from several pollsters are pointing in the same direction - Yep - I think it may happen.

And since this thread is about markets - I asked .... what do we all think will happen to our life-saved nest-eggs if civil war does break out ?
 
We have a political system that allows for diverse viewpoints to be negotiated. When we are divided to the point where folks on both sides lose confidence in the system, we do risk tribalism where might makes right. The more we accentuate the internal divide rather than recognizing the external threat and band together, the more likely the grand experiment is to fail in our lifetimes.
Exactly. With recent refusals to run for re-election by moderates on both sides, it seems the tribalism you pointed out is getting worse.
 
You're not the only one brother
How do ideas get discussed when one side posts things like "F-ing idiot" or some other name-calling outburst?? How does that add to anything?? A discussion or exchange of ideas takes more than an explosive outburst ...... right???

That's why I don't explode into a rage and call someone else names. I'd rather put some background into the conversation.

I'm sure this post will bring backlashes .................. I'll still be calm. Let's get it back to markets?? (which is the context in which I originally posted Ray Dalio's comments at post #1443.)
 
The Dems are no longer center of anything they have dove into Marxism head first everyone new they leaned that way for decades they finally are showing their true colors. Two different Dems switched to Republicans under Trumps 4 years because they couldn’t even recognize their own party any longer. I’m shocked Manchin hasn’t flipped sides I wouldn’t be a little surprised if he doesn’t flip under the next Republican controlled Congress and Whitehouse. I doubt we see civil war just yet midterm elections are this year if we in fact still have free elections then with the Brandon poll numbers this will be the bloodbath of all bloodbath midterm elections for the Dems. Republicans will take control of both houses and Brandon will be impeached very quickly and most likely Harris with him and a the Republican speaker of the house will be president. When 70% of the population thinks Brandon is a dipshit things will happen fast to remove the cancer after November.
 
70% say a shooting civil war is justified? I have a hard time believing that.
 
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